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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Laura Cook and Stuart Willey. Iran and the United States are set to meet again this week, likely in Rome, after landmark first talks in Muscat at the weekend over the Iranian nuclear programme.
With Iran reported to be just weeks from being able to build a bomb, the US president has made a stark warning to Tehran, make a deal in 60 days or it's war. Today we'll unpack the significance of the talk and the challenges ahead with our guest Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, a think tank in Washington. Trita, please.
positive noises from everyone at the first round of talks. What's your sense of how it went? I do have to say that this round went as well as it possibly could have gone.
in the sense that the indirect talks were for about two and a half hours, and towards the end, clearly enough progress had been made so that the Ivanians could be convinced to meet directly with Steve Witkoff, which then enabled both sides to have been truthful. The Ivanians said that the talks would be indirect, Trump said that it would be direct, and it was both.
And perhaps most importantly, they decided to meet within a week. And I think already at this stage, the conversation had gone into the territory in which greater technical expertise is needed.
And that in and of itself is an indication that the approach Trump pursued here is one based on what he has repeatedly said, which is he just wants to make sure there's no nuclear weapon in Iran. To achieve that, you can go with a verification-based solution, which is pretty much what the JCPOA was, or you could have gone with what the Israelis were pushing for, which was Libya-style dismantlement.
Trump has chosen not to do that because I think he genuinely wants a deal. And as a result, he's adopted a much more pragmatic, constructive approach. And this is part of the reason why this is growing so fast. I mean, keep in mind, not trying to be partisan or anything. As you know, I was very much involved with the original JCPOA. But Trump has now in what, three months gotten further than what Biden got in four years.
Biden never got to a point in which Iranian and U.S. officials at the foreign ministry level even met. And Trump has managed to get that. So I think from his standpoint, he can already now feel comfortable saying that he's doing better, which obviously is very important for him. But to be objective, he actually is doing better.
Trudy, you touched on direct versus indirect talks. Iran and the US haven't had formal diplomatic relations for decades. How big a deal was it that there was at least a couple of minutes of face time in Muscat? I mean, I cannot emphasize enough how big of a deal that is. Because
At the end of the day, it was Trump who pulled out of the deal. It was Trump that reimposed or imposed maximum pressure sanctions that went way beyond any of the sanctions the U.S. had imposed before. And also, of course, this is the man that ordered the assassination of Bassem Soleimani.
the former head of the Ivankovic forces. So for them to not only talk to the US under Trump, but for them to not only do that, but at the first meeting, even go forward with a face-to-face, there were no cameras there. So I suspect there also was a handshake. It is absolutely huge. And I think it's reflective of the fact that both sides need a deal and both sides see an upside to a deal in a manner that they didn't do before. Keep one thing in mind.
Trump, despite all of his theatrics, despite attacking the Houthis,
has made strong promises of getting out of the Middle East and not getting into any new wars in the region. As you say, Trump pulled the US out of that earlier JCPOA deal. Perhaps the biggest carrot he can offer this time round is an end to economic sanctions. How much does Iran need relief from them? They absolutely need it. Their economic situation is very, very bad.
I wouldn't say that they are on the verge of collapse, economic collapse or regime collapse, because they can still muddle through. They can survive, but they cannot thrive. And the rest of the region is thriving. I mean, Turkey's economy was smaller than Iran's 20 years ago, and now it's way ahead of it. It's part of the G20.
The Saudis are moving really forward, modernizing their country, opening it up. Of course, I don't have to explain to anyone how Doha and Dubai looks today, but 50 years ago, it was essentially nothing. For the Iranians to just survive is still to constantly lag behind.
And when it comes to regime collapse, this regime is tremendously unpopular. It is corrupt. It is repressive. Its economic situation is disastrous. None of those criteria in and of themselves are sufficient for a revolution or regime collapse. You need to have
a competent opposition, leadership, ideology, all of these different things, which has been missing in Iban, which has enabled a tremendously unpopular and incompetent oftentimes regime to survive because there isn't an alternative, because the ingredients for a revolution are not there.
So my argument or my assessment is that they needed to thrive, not necessarily to survive. They're still surviving, but it's not a particularly dignified survival. Tell us about Iran's foreign minister who was at these talks. Where does he sit in Iran's factions? Is he with the hardliners, the Revolutionary Guard, or with the reformists, the kind of moderates we talk about?
So Abbas Arashi is a very competent Iranian foreign minister. He was part of the previous negotiations. He is not seen as being with the reformists, perhaps tilting closer to the conservatives, but those...
epithets have kind of lost meaning in Iran a little bit because of how much the political environment and spectrum has undergone changes. Perhaps not as big of changes as you have in the U.S. What does it mean to be a Republican in the U.S. today? It's really difficult to know because Liz Cheney, a Republican, and a MAGA Republican are on completely two different planets. Okay.
But he is seen as someone who really knows the file and is accepted essentially in all camps and does have clearly the authority to do this. They would not have been sending their top diplomat for indirect talks unless they themselves knew from the outset that there is a high likelihood that
that there will be a need for direct talks, even at that first meeting. And incidentally, the entire delegation of the Ivanian Centre was, I mean, they sent a very large and very experienced senior delegation there. What's your sense, having been involved in years of these talks, what's the best and the worst outcome we could see? I think we start off with the worst. I think if Trump is put under pressure to expand the agenda,
And he wants to deal with Iran's missiles, its relations with Hezbollah and the Houthis, etc. I think that will create complications if it is part of at least an initial deal. So I think it's very critical that he really prioritizes what he has said, which I suspect is a reflection of his priorities. His only red line is a nuclear weapon.
If that is the American approach, I think we have a decent likelihood of success. On the Iranian side, you have to really worry about hardliners trying to sabotage this. I think we've seen some very interesting positive signs.
There is a gentleman there who runs the Iranian conservative paper, Kayhan. And he ran an article, I think it's now a little bit more than a week ago, saying something along the lines that Trump should be killed. And there was a firestorm within the system with several different entities within the Iranian system in a coordinated way, pushing back against him, asking for him being rebuked.
And mindful of the fact that this person directly represents Ayatollah Khamenei, seeing him actually being pulled back, I don't think we have seen before. So you're seeing efforts by some conservatives to sabotage, but you're seeing an even stronger effort by others, including other conservatives, to shut them down and not let them sabotage this. Then you have the wild card in this, which is Israel, which has completely opposed any negotiations, any deal,
On the best side, on the positive, if they manage to get a nuclear deal before the October deadline, and then they begin negotiations on other issues, so that this is not just a one-off, but this is the beginning of a strategic reorientation by both Iran and the United States. Imagine how the Middle East would look like if the U.S. and Iran were not just constantly negotiating
at each other in all of these different arenas in the Middle East. Almost every conflict in the region has ended up becoming a theater in which the U.S. and Iran are indirectly or directly supporting opposing factions or groups.
Trump wants to get out of the Middle East. Getting a deal with Iran is actually one of the smartest ways of paving the way for the U.S. being able to exit the Middle East militarily. Because a key justification for the U.S. being there with 50,000 troops is precisely the U.S.-Iran enmity.
Trita, thank you. Trita Parsi is Executive Vice President at the Quincy Institute, a think tank in Washington. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
And now, a next-level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows, and they need to be there in time for International Sleep Day. You've got AT&T 5G, so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding, and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease, so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. AT&T 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more at att.com slash 5G network.
Breaking news coming in from Bet365, and it's no surprise.
Same game parlay from Bet365 just keeps getting better. Well, it's even easier to make a bet. Choose from the most popular markets like hits, run line, totals, and home runs. So many to choose from. Download the app, start building your bet, and see why it's never ordinary at Bet365. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. 21 plus only. Must be physically located in Virginia. TNCs apply.