Ukraine peace talks break down over US ultimatum
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security, with me, Toby Gillis, and Alex Dibble. Alex.

Hours before it was due to begin in London on Wednesday morning, UK time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulled out of a meeting with European and Ukrainian ministers aimed at securing a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. It was a sudden U-turn, causing an official downgrading of the talks from ministerial to merely official level.

By the afternoon, J.D. Vance, the Vice President of the United States, had spoken, revealing that they had put a plan for peace on the table and insisting that both Ukraine and Russia would have to cede territory. So how did that offer end US involvement in the London talks? And what does it signify for the immediate future?

Our guest today is Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at the Clinton Institute in Dublin. Scott, can we assume that the White House caught wind of something that forced this Rubio U-turn? I think we can go back to what happened last Thursday at the first meeting between the US, Ukraine and European representatives in Paris and put this all together.

At the time when that meeting took place last week, we're like, well, now this is really big because this is a three-way meeting. The Russians are not there. This could be really big in terms of getting away from the Kremlin trying to set the terms in terms of why they'll end their invasion. If you don't mind me just going back on this, there was a red flag put up publicly after the end of that meeting by Marco Rubio. And that red flag was, you know, if things don't work out, we could walk away.

What we did not know at the time that Rubio said that, but what we learned this weekend, if we were paying attention, is that the U.S. had put a proposal to Ukraine and its European partners for what they saw as a settlement that would halt the Russian invasion. But the terms of that were very important. First of all,

The U.S. not only said that Ukraine should give up the Crimea Peninsula, but that the U.S. will legally recognize Crimea as part of Russia. But the Americans went even further. The Americans said those areas that Russia occupies, that they have taken since the invasion of February 2022, the U.S. is going to give de facto recognition that these are controlled by Russia. But that's not all.

Ukraine has to promise not to join NATO while it will get some security guarantees. These are not spelled out in the U.S. document. And in the meantime, the U.S. will pursue economic opportunities with Russia. So Moscow gets pretty much everything that it's been asking for, except for the fall of the Zelensky government. And when the Americans realized they weren't going to get the deal because the terms are unacceptable to Ukraine, they walked.

So you think it's that way round. Some have indeed suggested the Americans wanted to announce this ultimatum on European soil, which some might say would have been unthinkable. And so perhaps he was told not to come.

I think the two may be linked. I mean, what we don't know is if the Americans went to the Europeans and say, can you talk to the Ukrainians? Can you make them give way? And the Europeans says, well, no, we're not going to force them to accept the deal. We don't know if that happened. I don't rule that out. But yeah, you're probably talking about a withdrawal, which is...

On the one hand, the Americans saying, we're not going to show up if you don't take the deal. And the Europeans saying, OK, don't show up. We were getting close to a position where the scenario was going to be that Ukraine was going to be asked to effectively capitulate.

to Russia's maximum demands or close to their maximum demands, that the U.S. would wrap this up in a bow, say this is the deal of the century and paving the way for Donald to celebrate it with Putin with Ukraine being pushed to the sidelines. That's what we're on the verge of. We need to have the eyes open about it. But the fundamental point is, is that Ukrainian government doesn't believe that's where they should be. And at this point, almost all of Europe, not just the UK, France and Germany, they don't believe that deal should be forced on Ukraine either.

Scott, what I find amazing about this is that, as you've hinted, what's all important to Donald Trump here is the optics. And I can't really understand why he thinks this deal could ever reflect well on him. I mean, essentially, Ukraine trades everything for nothing. And I can't see how any right-minded person could credit Trump with anything other than capitulating to an enemy here.

Well, Toby, you say that the optics are is that the Russians simply are seizing almost a quarter of Ukraine, that they've made no significant concessions here. But on Wednesday morning, I was looking at headline after headline, including in some quality UK, US outlets that I actually like, not just some of the crazy press.

And they were saying, look at what Vladimir Putin just said. Vladimir Putin has just made a significant concession here in that Russia is not going to demand all of the four regions that he annexed in September 2022. Quick reminder, Russia does not control all of those four regions. That's because a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the autumn of 2022 announced

took the western half or the western part of the Kherson region in the south. It took part of the Zaporizhia region in the south, and it took part of Donetsk, regained part of Donetsk in the east. So this is not Russia-controlled territory. And what Vladimir Putin did a few weeks ago when he met the Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, he privately told Witkoff, okay, if you let us have Crimea, if you recognize that we have Crimea, I won't demand all of the four regions.

Now, that was not made public until yesterday. Now, question, who made this public? Was it the Kremlin that made this public or was it American officials?

who leaked this to the media, is trying to frame it as Putin made this concession so everything's acceptable. And again, I'm going to tell you, there are a lot of outlets who usually are responsible and effective media outlets who took the bait on this one. That all of a sudden, Putin looked like a good guy out of this precisely so the Americans could carry out this framing.

Now, what the question now is for the media coverage is, do they go back to what you've so eloquently expressed, which is Ukraine was being forced to take a bad deal? Or do they take the bait and say, oh, my gosh, Russia made these concessions and then Ukraine wouldn't accept the concessions. And that's why the Americans had to step aside.

Scott, in amongst all these shades of grey, these claims and counterclaims, do you think we can read one certain thing in all of this, which is that when the US claimed last week that they were ready to walk away if it became too difficult, they were telling the truth, that Trump might forego the photo op with Putin and his Nobel Peace Prize to focus on something else?

Let's call this what it was. I mean, in the light of what has transpired over the past week is that the United States issued what in effect was an ultimatum to Ukraine with the Europeans present. And they said, if you do not accept this ultimatum in which you give up control of almost a quarter of your country, if you do not accept that you will never be part of NATO, although you can join the EU,

If you do not accept these vague superiority guarantees with no detail on how they'll be fulfilled, if you don't accept this ultimatum, we'll leave the talks and you're on your own. Now, of course, the U.S. has threatened to do this in the past. They've threatened it, or I should say the Trump administration has threatened to do it in the past. So we're back to that point at the end of February, which is if Washington, the Trump administration, disappears,

Or even worse, if they side with the Kremlin, will Europe continue to stand with Ukraine? Will Australia continue to stand with Ukraine? Japan, Canada, the international community. So this will be a test not only of Kiev, it'll be a test of the international community of being the adults in the room rather than letting a bully named Trump, a bully named Vance, and those who will appease those bullies try to punch Kiev in the nose and say, you have to give up.

And just lastly, do you think there is anyone in Europe who could say anything to get back in on this? Or is it all too late? Well, I mean, Europe's got a seat at the table. Still, let's rewind this, though, because this is why it doesn't all go a certain way and that the Americans walk out and the Kremlin wins everything. Remember back in February, where we were, there were U.S. direct talks with Russia and Europe and Ukraine were excluded. Now, the Kremlin hoped that they simply...

could carry out those direct talks and then impose a settlement on Ukraine. But the Kremlin overplayed its hand. It overplayed its hand because it demanded too much, right? And that opened up the space because there are certain Trump administration officials who don't think you should give in to the Kremlin. So when the Kremlin overplayed their hand, thinking they could just simply get the Trump administration to accept all their demands, that opened up the space for Ukraine and Europe to come back in and to wind up being at the table.

And the lesson over the past couple of months is, is that Europe has stepped up to say that we will not let Ukraine capitulate. So the Trump administration doesn't get to dictate this. They think they can't, but they don't get to dictate this. That doesn't mean I think Ukraine wins out of this. It's still a difficult situation, but it does mean that there's still a lot to play for.

Okay, Scott Lucas, thank you. That is Professor of American Studies at Clinton Institute Dublin, Scott Lucas. This proposed deal appears to give Vladimir Putin almost all he ever wanted. Until it is agreed though, Western military planning will continue. That led last week to a Russian threat of taking pre-emptive action against NATO. To understand more about how that might manifest itself, do have a listen to last Thursday's episode, Is Putin Planning a NATO Attack? For

For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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