Ukraine’s earth minerals and why Trump wants them
10:52 Share

Save up to 70% at Mattress Warehouse today and sleep better tonight, knowing you got the best possible price. So where would you look to find the perfect mattress? In a little mattress store or Mattress Warehouse? Visit mattresswarehouse.com.

Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Tom Noonan. After a week of Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky trading barbs across the Atlantic, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said Trump is very upset with Zelensky for rejecting a deal with the US involving Ukraine's vast resources of rare earth minerals. It's been a long time since the US has made a deal with the US.

becoming increasingly clear that this deal, which Donald Trump claims is worth up to half a trillion dollars, is a key part of his vision for how to end the war. What we thought we'd do today, therefore, is look into this in more detail. These minerals, the lithium, titanium and the other minerals needed for the transition to sustainable energy. Our guest is Catherine Philp, The Times' World Affairs Editor, who's in Kiev.

Catherine, let's just try, if we can, to take a step back from the heated words of this week. Why is Donald Trump so keen to get his hands on these minerals and get this deal signed? Yeah, so, I mean, this deal was originally actually not in its current form, but as a concept was put forward by Zelensky back in September. And it was, I think,

I think it was described to me as a bait for Donald Trump, that it would appeal to his acquisitive side. You may remember that in his first term, Donald Trump first talked about sequestering Greenland, taking over Greenland for the US, and he's revived that again. And that reason for wanting to acquire Greenland was both its geographic position and

but also its deposits of rare earth minerals. Now, these are known as the vitamins of modern life. They're components that they're not actually that rare, despite the name, but they are essential to modern technology. Things like electric cars, mobile phones, computers, etc.

And China has something of a stranglehold over the supply chain of it. So not only did China get into the business of mining these materials, a lot of them in Africa, it also has them domestically, one of its few natural resources. But critically, it also has control of 90% of the processing of rare earths. So the idea of getting alternative supplies of rare earths

is one of the things that Donald Trump is looking to secure from elsewhere in the world.

And of course, Donald Trump and his supporters would argue that this is all completely justified and completely in keeping with Donald Trump's approach. They'd say, you know, this isn't charity, we need to get something back for the US instead of just constantly pumping money into another far-off country's security as they see it. And on top of that, it also reduces the US's reliance on China.

In that sense, this is completely in keeping with Donald Trump's America First agenda. Yes, completely. And I mean, there's nothing wrong with wanting to do that. I think the issue is, you know, do you behave like a mafia boss running a protection racket and try and exploit a country in its darkest hour? I mean, this is not a fair deal that Trump is suggesting. The concept was...

to him by Zelensky, but it is the American side who've drawn up this incredibly inequitable version of a contract that Zelensky has so far refused. There's been a lot of criticism of this proposed deal. How unusual, how extraordinary is it historically? Can you think of anything similar being agreed before? Funnily enough, I can.

And it would be so yes, I think that, you know, in our kind of more short term memories, I think a lot of people have compared it to noted rather having done the sums that this is more punitive towards Ukraine than the reparations that Germany was made to pay in the wake of this.

World War. But historically, this is the sort of thing that the colonial powers did to other countries. It resembles the European scramble for Africa and the fact that countries were often subjugated by force and then their natural resources taken away from them. I mean, I think that the level to which that was done with Africa in colonial times is almost unquantifiable.

Catherine, is the idea here that this is actually more of an insurance policy in case Trump's trade war with China ends up escalating and the US loses out on minerals, given, as you say, Beijing currently controls 90% of the world's supply?

I think it's, I'm afraid I think it's a bit more complicated than that for a number of reasons. One, no one's really sure how many, how large the deposits of rare earths are here. Secondly, he's actually going much more,

much broader than just rare earths he's talking about all kinds of minerals including lithium and titanium um and we and we do know that ukraine does have a lot of lithium but for example the largest lithium deposit in ukraine which is also the largest in the whole of europe is now under russian control after that area fell only about six weeks ago to the to the russian army so um

He was a little slow off the mark with that. If he's not interested in stopping the Russians, more of those deposits will fall under Russian control.

Trump has gone so maximalist with this draft agreement. He even wants Ukraine's oil and gas, which America has plenty of itself. And certainly China doesn't provide. China is an importer of oil and gas and doesn't have any of its own. So, you know, it looks exploitative on sort of kind of every level.

And there's this debate this week about how much this actually gives Ukraine the security guarantees it wants going forward. Volodymyr Zelensky says Donald Trump's asking for all this access and offering none of those guarantees in return, and that's why he wants to reject it. Marco Rubio says, well, actually, the deal will mean the US is invested and involved in Ukraine after the war, and that in itself is a guarantee. How much do you think that this is actually a deterrent for Vladimir Putin?

Yeah, now there's this kind of vague theory that an American presence, even if it's a civilian one in the form of commercial concessions, people mining in Ukraine might forestall any attempt from Russia to come back. But for any of this stuff, even if this was all signed, sealed,

You'd have to ask commercial companies to come into Ukraine, which is not secure, to start the mining. And nobody's going to do that. Nobody's going to build the infrastructure when there are missiles flying. No one's going to ensure them to do it. And it would take, I've been told by geologists, state geologists here, it takes between three to five years simply to, you

you know, extract the first amount of the deposits. And we're talking about also, um, we're talking in the case of these rare earths about, um, elements that are present in a ratio of something like one gram per ton of subsoil. Um,

Additionally, should you wish another problem, the Ukrainian constitution forbids this kind of deal and the subsoil of Ukraine belongs to the people of Ukraine now and in perpetuity, so there are generations to come. And finally, quite a few of these fields have already been licensed. The now out of reach Shevchenko lithium deposits actually under contract

excuse me, to an Australian company. So it's just there's a lot in the way of this happening. Catherine, it feels as you say that there are plenty of obstacles to this. Do you think there is any chance these can be resolved and some kind of deal can be done where both sides walk away happy?

No, there is a deal that could be done. And it would be along the kind of model of those licenses already granted, for example, to the Australian company I mentioned. It can be done in Ukraine when it's done in partnership with the government. So it will be a joint venture and it would kind of tie up the two countries' economies together, which I think...

Zelensky originally thought would be a powerful argument for America wanting to keep the peace in Ukraine or bring a peace in Ukraine.

So, no, you can't just sign them away. That's the issue. And this document that the Americans presented Zelensky with, Trump has said sort of rhetorically that he wants 500 billion back from Ukraine out of this deal. One, he's asked for 50% of the mineral wealth and it's worth far, far in excess of that, possibly trillions. So he's asking too much. Secondly, America has not spent much

500 billion dollars on Ukraine to date. It's more like, I think, 60 something and then some extra in the form of a loan. He hasn't given Ukraine more money than Europe, as he keeps saying, and he's not offering any credit.

security guarantees alongside that contract. It covers only compensation for monies that have frankly nothing to do with Donald Trump or his administration. They were funds that were pledged and dispersed by the US Congress during the Biden administration. So it's not his money. These were not the conditions under which it was given to Ukraine.

Catherine, thank you. That is The Times' World Affairs Editor, Catherine Filt, speaking to us from Kiev. And of course, this minerals deal is just one part of these incredibly complex negotiations to try to bring an end to the war in Ukraine.

In yesterday's episode of The World in Ten, The Times' Bruno Waterfield spoke about how one of Russia's demands in those negotiations is to effectively suspend NATO's collective security policy, Article 5, for the Baltic states and Finland. If you haven't already, definitely go and have a listen to that. It's well worth it. For now, though, that is it from us. Thank you for taking ten minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

Joe Coy, Just Being Coy Tour. Mentally, I've become my dad. My dad was like, oh, you listen to that hippity-hoppity? And now I'm sounding like my dad because I'm like, you're listening to that mumbly-mumbly? You're listening to that mumbly-mumbly? I don't even say words. Mumble, mumble, mumble. Saturday, February 22nd, Capital One Arena. Tickets on sale now at joecoy.com. Don't miss them, D.C. Joe Coy, Just Being Coy Tour.