Ukraine’s troops surrounded as peace talks begin
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis, joined today by Alex Dibble. On Tuesday, US and Ukrainian officials will resume talks aimed at bringing peace to Ukraine for the first time since the now infamous Oval Office debacle. Saudi Arabia will host officials from both sides. Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, will chair the meeting for the US.

with Vladimir Zelensky's chief of staff, foreign and defence ministers and military officials representing Ukraine. Zelensky has actually been there in the immediate build-up too, advising on tactics, tone and red lines after a week in which his negotiating position and on-the-ground success appear to have weakened considerably.

He's also meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. There's a lot to unpack then for our guest today, The Times' World Affairs Editor, Catherine Philp. Catherine, simple one initially, why is Zelensky there but not taking part in the talks?

From a strictly protocol point of view, he shouldn't be at a meeting which is chaired by the US Secretary of State Rubio because he's president of a country. And so his own foreign secretary, his foreign minister will be going in his place.

his visit to Washington was sort of about that, to try and ratchet things up to president-to-president level. And in fact, it was one of the complaints of the Ukrainian side about why that meeting descended into such acrimony was that J.D. Vance inserted himself into it. And there were some pointed remarks from the Ukrainians that it was meant to be a president-to-president meeting. So they felt that that level was inappropriate.

And, of course, did not do Zelensky any favours. So Zelensky is going there to demonstrate his readiness for such negotiations, his presence. Meeting MBS is quite smart because that's someone that, you know, the Trump administration have endorsed previously.

And we may be expecting to see a signature on that fraught minerals deal, which only Zelensky can sign. So I think that's the purpose of him being there. It's a sort of reset. But yes, the main, you know, the guts of the deal will not be debated by Zelensky. It will be done by his team.

These are also the first talks since the intelligence sharing was paused by Donald Trump. It's clear that that has damaged Ukraine on the ground, isn't it? Given that, what tone do you think Zelensky is going to instruct his team to take? Well, I mean, there is a brutal efficiency to what's been done in the withdrawal of both military aid and intelligence sharing because it's really put Ukraine in a position where it has...

absolutely no choice but to enter these negotiations. It's already having an impact on the battlefield, as you know. And I think in particular, the intelligence sharing, I think that's the really fraught part of this, that there is a school of military thought that says that the nature of the battlefields had changed so greatly that Ukraine could continue for some time without

US military support, but the intelligence sharing really has left Ukraine fighting blind. So I think that this will obviously put them in quite a conciliatory mood. We know from Kyiv that their suggestion that they want to put something on the table to take the initiative, and that will be a suggestion obviously

a sort of ceasefire, not on the ground, but in the air and at sea. Now, in the air would be very helpful to the Ukrainians who've taken a pounding from airstrikes in the last week or so. At sea, that would seem to be an olive branch from Ukraine to Russia, because Ukraine has no navy and yet has a

almost effectively closed down the Russian Navy in the Black Sea. It's been so effective at striking it and the Black Sea fleet has had to be moved out of Crimea to get away from Ukrainian fire. So that's their starting point for how they might be able to go forward with this.

And presumably, Catherine, that's also behind Donald Trump last night saying on Air Force One that the US had, and this is a quote, just about ended the suspension of intelligence sharing with Ukraine. I mean, that's only actually been a few days, hasn't it? It kind of makes you think this was all with these talks in mind, a kind of look what war's like without the US type warning.

I mean, he says just about, I mean, you know, Trump and words. I think by saying that, I think all it really means is that this is, yeah, that he's making it very, very clear that it's a bargaining chip and it could resume and that, you know, there's a possibility of it resuming. But yes, look what we've,

I mean, I wouldn't have thought it's much fun for him to see what has happened in Ukraine without it. But considering he is one who talks so much about wanting to not see these beautiful lives thrown away and to stop the killing, there's been little but since that happened. But yeah, I think that Donald Trump is indicating that it could be resumed and fast if his conditions are fulfilled.

Catherine, you've spent time with soldiers on the front line and you must have experienced how that US intelligence really helps them. Can you explain what is lost without it in that case and how quickly soldiers can act on it when it does reach them?

Yeah. Well, I think, I mean, one thing that we've seen over the last few days is that the US medium range rocket launchers, HIMARS, so the multiple rocket launch systems, they

that they use a lot of, uh, US satellite imaging and other intelligence, um, in, in their targeting. And I don't think there's, they've been used at all in the last few days since that was paused. So, uh,

That really reduces Ukraine's strike capacity inside Russia. It's less of an issue on the front line when you're talking about shorter range mortar fire or artillery fire. When you're looking at the longer range, the medium range firing, it means that Ukraine is...

is either blind to the artillery positions or the missile positions of the Russians, or it is just compromised in its ability to locate them and then fire upon them. So that's tricky. I mean, they do, there is a lot of, you know, there's a lot of first person surveillance drones as well as attack drones being used. And that is one, one,

way that they can get some sites on the ground but there's a limit to how far into you know into the back of the firing range those go so that's the main thing and today Catherine we're hearing reports that Ukraine's troops in Kursk have now been surrounded by Russians given what you've said there I assume that can't be coincidence they they probably just didn't see them coming right

I think that that has, although the intelligence sharing won't have helped, I think that is actually more to do with the Russian tactics. So I was just talking to people over the weekend who were saying in the UK, saying, why have the Russians allowed the Ukrainians to be inside their territory for so long?

And I think there was a desire not to let up on the East, you know, the push on the East. So in places like the cross, but also, again,

It's possible that Russia has waited until there are negotiations underway or about to happen in order to dislodge the Ukrainians from there. Because one of the reasons Ukrainians went in was so that they would have a piece of Russian territory potentially to swap in peace negotiations with their own territory that had been occupied by the Russians.

So if the Russians wait till now to go in and they can push the Ukrainians back, they may not need to hold that area so long. So it would be that they do appear to have rushed a lot more resources to the front line. It's really a ramping up. And I think it's timely in the sense that the Russians can see that, you know, these negotiations may happen and they want to take back that territory immediately.

so that they've got it going into, if there's a freeze of the battlefield, they have it back and they won't have to hold it against a renewed offensive from the Ukrainian side. So you think that's it for Ukraine in Russia then, Catherine? These are their last days in Kursk. I think that's certainly what the Russians are aiming to do. I think they are trying to take it back and take it back for good. So to be in that position before that freeze on the battlefield happens.

Okay, Catherine Philp, Times World Affairs editor, thank you for joining us. So Ukraine's bargaining position continues to weaken, even with the backing of Europe and Canada and the so-called Coalition of the Willing, which will come together this weekend, hosted by the UK Prime Minister, Zakir Starmer, who's trying to put together a group to lead on Ukraine's future defence.

We analysed how that might work with our diplomatic editor Roger Boyes last Monday. Do go back to March the 3rd and listen. For now though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. We'll see you tomorrow.

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