What Israel’s attack means for Gaza, Trump and the world
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Welcome to the World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Stuart Willey and Laura Cook. Gaza has seen the biggest wave of airstrikes since the ceasefire began, with Israel's Prime Minister promising increasing military force to force the release of hostages by Hamas.

Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry says more than 400 were killed. The truce had mostly held since January, but as both sides blame the other for breaches, mediators say they'll still try to salvage it. To talk us through the implications of this new offensive, we're joined by Fawaz Gerges, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and a Middle East specialist. Professor, how do you feel about the new offensive?

Professor Gheorghez, the first six-week phase of this ceasefire was supposed to lead to phase two, but we were in that limbo without an agreement to move on. Was anybody expecting this major attack today? Anyone I know expected phase two to survive. It was a common knowledge, an open secret, that the Israeli prime minister will never go to phase two. Why?

Phase two of the ceasefire would have meant the end of the war. Phase two of the ceasefire would have meant the release of all hostages and thousands of Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two of the ceasefire would have meant Israel would have to end the war, and this could have collapsed. The Israeli prime minister coalition would have really have meant the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career. The Americans knew it. The Egyptians knew it. The Qataris knew it. It was really part of what we call diplomatic ambiguity. I call it diplomatic manipulation because the major players in you

that the Israeli prime minister would never ever accept the end of the war and the survival of Hamas, either politically or bureaucratically, let alone militarily. One resident in Gaza called it a night of hell. Is there a scenario in which these attacks do not lead to war resuming in earnest? The Palestinian health authority in Gaza

400 Palestinians have been killed over the past few hours and 500 injured. So it's a catastrophe. The question is not really whether the attacks will continue. The question is, will Israel basically launch a ground attack, another attack? Or will Israel use war of attrition, air power, and also using starvation as a weapon of war? Since the beginning of the month, no aid whatsoever.

enters the Gaza Strip and Israel decided to cut electricity to Gaza. So Gaza now lives in the darkness, there is no food, no medicine, no humanitarian aid, and what Israel is banking on, that basically starvation and air power could basically force Hamas to surrender, to basically not only release the Israeli hostages, but accept either exile or leaving Gaza for good.

We've also seen Israel striking Syria and Lebanon. What can we read into this escalation on multiple fronts now? Israel has made it very clear. Israel now is pursuing what we call offensive deterrence. It's striking Syria, it's striking Lebanon, it's striking the West Bank,

It's striking Gaza. It's also striking sometimes the Houthis in Yemen. This is an offensive strategy, taking really security in its own hands. I mean, there's a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

supposedly a ceasefire that ended Israel's war in Lebanon. Yet Israel launches attacks on Lebanon almost every day. And Israel has not really left five major strategic hills in Lebanon. In Syria, Israel now controls about 1%

Syrian territories. It has destroyed the strategic capabilities of the Syrian army and continues to attack Syrian territories. So this is really a new era. It's a highly risky strategy because Israel is overextended and Israel basically is trying to really have a free hand, a security free hand at the expense of its neighbors and with the green light from the Trump administration.

And the reality is how long can Israel maintain this offensive strategy and what will be the costs and the consequences for Israel in the midterm and the long term as well?

Back at the start of the ceasefire, US President Donald Trump said it was a personal victory for him. How does this failure to keep peace reflect on him, especially when the US media is reporting he was consulted by Israel before the attacks and, as you say, gave a green light? Benjamin Netanyahu would not have launched another major campaign, military campaign in Gaza without a green light from the Trump administration.

I think both the United States and Israel coordinate strategically and tactically. In fact, Israel has full support of the United States. And in the past few days, the Trump administration has opened a new front in Yemen. Again, it's pursuing an offensive deterrence strategy against the Houthis. It wants to destroy the military and leadership capabilities of the Houthis and sends

a strong message to Iran to come to the negotiating table and accept the end of its nuclear program. So the reality is, I think many Americans will come to realize

that despite all the rhetoric by President Trump, that he is a man of peace. I mean, President Trump now is re-engaging the United States in the killing fields of the Middle East, and this will have consequences for the United States, not only in the international system, but back at home, because his power base, his social base, does not really want any major military engagement, neither in the Middle East nor anywhere else in the world.

What's the risk that this war reverberates beyond Gaza again and perhaps pulls in others in and out of the region? This is Ramadan. This is the spiritual month of Muslims worldwide. It's a spiritual month. It's a month of reflection. It's not only about fasting. It's about reflecting about the state of the Ummah, the Muslim global community.

And to kill 400 Palestinians in less than 24 hours and injure 500, this would most likely trigger a widespread rage throughout the Arab and Muslim lands. So there is the reality you're going to see protests worldwide. The reality is now, I mean, Benjamin Netanyahu is risking the

The Camp David peace treaty was Egypt, given the fact that Egypt is a major mediator in this particular conflict, not to mention Jordan. So there are major risks for Israel. But Benjamin Netanyahu does not care. He does not care about Egypt. He does not care about Jordan. He does not care about civilian lives. He cares about one audience, one audience, and that's Donald Trump who's sitting in the White House.

When Hamas attacked Israel on October 7th, 2023, the focus on Gaza in months after that prompted a fear from some that Vladimir Putin would take advantage by making moves in Ukraine whilst the world's attention, and the US's attention in particular, was elsewhere. Is there any danger that that could happen here? I think so. I think what we are witnessing now is a kind of rapprochement between President Trump and President Putin.

the relationship between the United States and Russia is basically warming up. So I doubt it very much. In fact, let me turn your question on its head.

What President Putin is trying to do now is play the mediator role between the United States and Iran, between the United States and the Houthis. And probably he will try to also mediate between Israel and its Arab neighbors. So the reality is at this particular moment in history, the coming to power of Donald Trump has changed the dynamics, the optics.

of Russian-American relations and also the role of Russia, not just in Europe, but in the world as well. There is now quite close coordination between the United States and Russia on Ukraine, on Syria, on Yemen, on Iran, on other issues as well. How are leaders in the Middle East seeing this return to great power politics, to the idea of spheres of influence? Are they looking for opportunities or just to ride out the storm?

The King of Jordan, King Abdullah II, is anxious. He is terrified. He is concerned about what's happening at home in Jordan. Millions of Jordanians basically feel for their Palestinian counterparts in the West Bank and Gaza. King Abdullah is extremely anxious.

about the likelihood that Israel basically wants to displace people from the West Bank, the occupied West Bank and Gaza. I think the Egyptian president is terrified. He's very anxious about Israel's basically design to displace the Palestinians in Gaza and trigger a major crisis, not only in Israel-Egyptian relations, but a major crisis within Egypt itself.

Other Arab leaders basically don't really like what to say because the pressure, the popular pressure, the bottom-up pressure is overwhelming. And they realize that they cannot rely on the White House. They cannot really, there are no adults out there. Because Donald Trump, even though, I mean, Biden fully supported Israel, but Biden established certain limits.

There were certain, basically, checks and balances when it came to humanitarian support. Now, I mean, you have really no checks, no limits on what Israel can do and will do in the next few days and next few weeks. Fawaz, thank you. Professor Fawaz Girgaz from LSE is a Middle East and international relations specialist. That's it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

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