Why the US running Ukraine’s nuclear plants would be another Russia win
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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. I'm Toby Gillis with Laura Cook today. The first contact between Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky since the infamous Oval Office row went rather more smoothly.

with both emerging speaking positively of one another and the outcome. But an eye-catching headline emerged. Could the US really take over the running of Ukraine's power plants? Is it possible? And what would be the benefits? Sometimes a story drops in that demands a specific guest and

Even though we spoke with him yesterday on this subject, Hamish de Breton-Gordon, a former commanding officer of the UK and NATO's nuclear defence forces, is the obvious choice. Welcome back, Hamish. Let's start by asking what the running of Ukraine's nuclear power would actually require, whoever does it.

Well, Ukraine is one of the foremost nuclear power countries in the world. Ukraine has always invested very heavily in nuclear power. Before the war started, over 57% of Ukraine's power output came from nuclear power.

And that was four major reactors, more modern than the Chernobyl one. And the largest reactor or the largest power station in Europe, in Zaporozhye, was six reactors, which has been overtaken by the Russians since the whole part of the war and has not generated electricity. Now, although nuclear power generation is pretty straightforward,

It does require a very, very high level of safety. Now, the Ukrainians are really the masters of this. They are the best, I would have thought, at running these power stations. But it does take a lot of expertise.

it's crucial that you always have power to a nuclear power station. That might sound a strange thing because one of the key safety elements is making sure that you can keep the core reactor at a steady temperature. And also at most nuclear power stations, there will be stores of spent nuclear fuel. And it's crucial that that is kept at a certain temperature regularly.

usually with water. And some of the issues we've seen across Ukraine is where power's being cut. And without the water to control the temperature of particularly spent fuel, it can go critical and can explode. So it's complex, but the Ukrainians are expert at this. But you don't want to be fighting around nuclear power stations. An accident can create a real issue with nuclear power stations.

It won't create a nuclear explosion as a nuclear bomb, but the radiation, uranium and plutonium, is very dangerous and can travel great distances. So safety is critical and it should be done by people who know what they're doing. So if it makes sense for Ukraine to run them, what's in it for Trump to take their power stations under American ownership?

It's very difficult not being cynical about this latest move. Now, Ukraine, President Zelensky asked for more air defence to protect these nuclear power stations. And that really would be the most sensible thing for the Americans. Depatriot missiles is what they're really after. But to control it himself...

I assume he's suggesting by putting American people at these plants that the Russians wouldn't attack them. I think that is an assumption being made by a businessman and not a military person. We've already seen too many missiles and drones flying through the wires, if you like, of nuclear power stations, not least Sapa Reacher.

So to assume that Putin won't do it, Putin is the master of conflating issues. So it would be very easy for Putin to organize an attack on a nuclear power station run by Americans. And then, of course, blame somebody else because why on earth would Putin attack Americans? As

As far as the power itself, I mean, it would be great for Ukraine to get the Zaporozhye nuclear power station running again, because that generates serious power. I believe about 10 to 15% of Ukraine's requirements. But at the moment, it's doing absolutely nothing. Maybe that would be something if Trump organized that to be up and running again, he could then presumably charge Ukraine for that power. I mean, maybe that's the way he's thinking.

Just thinking about the geography of the Ukrainian plants, Zaporizhia aside, if the US took control of the rest, is this an easy win for Trump? I mean, if they're located in the middle of nowhere, he can say, well, we're delivering security for Ukraine with our men on the ground. But actually, if Russia doesn't attack them, then there's no need for him to get involved. Well, I think that there are possibly a few things associated that that is predicated on the fact that

that Putin will go no further than he is at the moment. And the contact line that they're talking about will be frozen and that will be it.

Those of us who've looked at this for some time and far more academic and far cleverer people than me believe that that is not the case, that actually Putin, he very much believes Ukraine should be completely subjugated and brought back into Russia. If Putin is happy to stop where he is, then what you're saying is certainly viable. Those

Apart from Zaporizhzhia, the other three nuclear power stations are in the sort of northeast of Ukraine and northwest of Ukraine. So you could see that they're far from the contact line and wouldn't be an issue. But I think the other final thing, the second point here is that this is all about infrastructure and infrastructure.

Trump seems to think that Putin agreed not to attack infrastructure. However, Putin has tried to switch the lights off and the power off and the heat off in Ukraine for the last three winters, and he's failed. Conversely, Ukraine has really attacked hard the Russian hydrocarbon industry, which is the backbone of Putin's economy, which is fueling his ability to stay in this fight.

If he can do a quid pro quo where Ukraine can't attack Russian oil refineries in return for allowing American to run Ukrainian nuclear power stations, then you can see that would be viable. But again, it's handing all the advantage and all the cards to Putin, who is the aggressor in this. We should not appease him in any way.

That's interesting because I was wondering why Russia would agree to give up Zaporizhia, although presumably Putin's ideal would be to keep control of such a powerful plant. Entirely. I mean, this is a real jewel in their crown, Zaporizhia. You can imagine that if the contact line is frozen where it is and Putin gets his way and has those four oblasts and Crimea integrated back into Russia,

He's got a ready-made power plant that's going to provide them power without him having to spend a dime, a ruble on it. So I cannot understand why, if I put myself in Putin's shoes, it's the last thing I'd be doing, giving this up. And if that is just what...

Trump is looking at, because you can see it's a fairly modern nuclear power station. It generates a massive amount of power and presumably he could make a lot of money out of it. So this is why I think this is a bit harebrained. If one looks in the cold light today with a rational head on, I can't see why Putin would agree to it. And really, it doesn't help the Ukrainians in any way at all.

Hamish, just as a final thought, controlling your own power feels like a really important thing for any nation, if possible. The minerals deal I kind of understood from a Ukrainian perspective, but you've laid out the dangers of nuclear power going wrong. You've laid out how Ukraine is basically the world leader on nuclear power. You think that giving up their plants to someone you maybe don't trust in Trump and

who would do this dangerous job less well than you would, might be the ultimate red line for Zelensky. Why on earth is this up for debate?

Well, I suppose when you are fighting for your life and your very existence, and Zelensky has said, you know, they absolutely want peace to, you know, give Trump a couple of nuclear power stations, you know, that if that gives you peace and security and stability, then, you know, so be it. The alternative is

is if Trump allows Putin to crack on and take Ukraine. So maybe it is a lesser of some of the other evils. But it strikes me that Trump could do an awful lot else. He could confirm that the might of the US military is behind Ukraine. And if he says that, Putin is no fool. He would know that if he tried to come up against the US military, he would lose.

OK, Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, former commanding officer of the UK and NATO's nuclear defence forces, thank you again for joining us. While Donald Trump mulls over the advice Hamish has delivered there, he'll also still be partly distracted by the re-escalation in the Middle East, with more than 500 Palestinians having died after fresh Israeli airstrikes in Gaza in just two days this week.

We covered how that impacts the world's security on Tuesday with Trump's thinking likely to be impacted. It's worth a listen. For now, though, thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.

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