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Welcome to The World in 10. In an increasingly uncertain world, this is The Times' daily podcast dedicated to global security. Today with me, Alex Dibble and Tom Noonan. When Donald Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, arrived in Moscow for Ukraine peace talks with Vladimir Putin, an explosion went off on the outskirts of the Russian capital. It
It was a car bomb packed with shrapnel and it killed a high-ranking general, Yaroslav Moskalik. His death is the latest in a string of assassinations of top officers in Russia since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. But is the timing in this case significant? And could it be part of a new strategy by Kiev? Our guest today is Nicholas Drummond, a land war specialist who, after a career in the army, is now a defence analyst.
Nicholas, this bomb went off just as Steve Witkoff landed in Moscow. Do you think they are linked, those two things? Or is this a coincidence that it goes off on the same day? Well, I don't believe in coincidences. And I think it is very much linked to what's going on in Moscow. And, you know, it'll also be retaliation for the attack yesterday.
which killed a number of Ukrainians. And I think that we have to remember that Ukraine has to show its own commitment to defending itself. And by reminding Russia that this is not over yet, but it's still very much prepared to defend its interests by whatever means it needs to in order to bring Russia to the negotiating table. So it will be a sobering thing for the Russians and we'll see what it yields.
But it would have taken a fair amount of planning, of course. And I'm sure that it would have been sort of already drawn up before. And they just had to agree the timing and the opportunity to conduct it. And how difficult is it for Ukraine to pull off this kind of attack inside Russia, in Moscow, indeed? We have to remember that a lot of people in Ukraine have relatives in Russia.
Rather like Northern Ireland and the United Kingdom, where people in the UK have relatives in Northern Ireland, we have the same situation in Ukraine. So a lot of family members are still in Russia and have Ukrainian relatives living in various Ukrainian cities.
So it would be quite easy to travel to and fro to actually affect an attack like this. A very similar situation and that kind of freedom of movement. Who is your enemy? What do you do? How do you know? Because a very large percentage of the population could have Ukrainian links or Russian links.
And of course, Ukraine has had the same problem with Russian agents operating inside Ukraine. So it's a challenge obviously for both sides because a lot of Ukrainians speak Russian. A lot of Ukrainians could infiltrate Russia and pretend to be Russian. And of course, that's the risk. And of course, it's a very large country geographically. So there are certain practical challenges in terms of finding out who these people are and where they're located.
Nicholas, we've seen these sorts of assassinations a few times since the war began. For example, in December with the assassination of Igor Kirillov, again with a bomb in Moscow. Could this be part of a shift in Ukraine's military strategy? Yes, I think it's signalling what Ukraine could do. We will move from conventional war to guerrilla war.
And if we do that, expect attacks inside Russia on a constant basis. We'll take out your infrastructure, your military bases, your senior leadership, because we have to just step back from the whole situation here. This whole initiative by Trump amounts to a US policy which is completely out of step with that of all of his NATO allies.
And it could lead to an outcome whereby Ukraine and the rest of Europe rejects what America is trying to do. And of course, if that happens, Trump would obviously decide to remove all USAID. We're very keen for that not to happen.
But if that were to happen, then the war would need to be waged in a different way, because Ukraine cannot wage a conventional war without considerable Western support.
And if it can't do that, it will have to resort to a counterinsurgency style, an insurgency style of guerrilla warfare in order to bring Russia to the negotiating table or to force a Russian withdrawal.
Nicholas, it strikes me that on the face of it, killing a general here or there isn't going to be enough to change Vladimir Putin's mind or change his strategy. How concerted does a bombing campaign or a guerrilla warfare campaign need to be to affect your enemy's decision making? How frequently and with what intensity, I suppose, do you have to carry out these sorts of attacks?
The thing is, if you're a guerrilla organization involved in trying to get rid of somebody from your country, you have all the time in the world. So you can attack wherever you want on a continual basis. And it's rather like water against rock. Eventually, over time, it has that effect. And as long as you can sustain those activities, then you will have an impact.
And, you know, we've seen that in countless terrorist activities. You know, the Khmer Rouge in Vietnam and the whole Vietnamese action against the US in the 1960s, Northern Ireland, because, you know, it wore us down. And of course, more recently in Afghanistan, you know, after 450 deaths in Afghanistan, we, the UK, decided it wasn't worth it.
Russia has probably sustained at least 200,000 to 300,000 deaths in Ukraine. And if it starts suffering casualties inside Russia, then local support will very quickly sap. And they will get into a position where people say, either you've got to sort these people out or get out. And it will just put more pressure on Vladimir Putin.
And if this is the new Ukrainian approach, or one that Kiev decides to use more often, how can Russia defend against it, especially bombings like this one? It's very hard to do that.
You know, it's the enemy within. And when you don't know who the enemy is, it's very hard to find them. Russia would be completely ruthless in doing that, finding these people. Of course, there's a risk of them arresting the wrong people or people who have Ukrainian links but are not linked to specific attacks. So they would act very strongly to find these people and eliminate them. And they would not have the same rules
rule of law or behaviours that we have here in terms of legality of activities. So, you know, I think I'm sure they would have some success, but I just think it would make Ukrainians more careful about what they're doing to hide their activities. And do you think then that Ukraine can ramp up these operations? How does it roll out a guerrilla campaign more widely, if that's the approach it's going to go for now?
And I'm sure that the Ukrainians have got sleeper agents inside Russia who are ready to perform these activities. And I think they're probably holding a lot of them in reserve, waiting to see what happens. And I'm sure that right now Ukraine is preparing a guerrilla campaign against Russia, and it will keep its powder dry until it's ready to act.
And I think what is, you know, going back to what your earlier question, I think today is demonstrating actually that if we don't agree a peace deal that is acceptable to Ukraine,
with certain concessions made by Russia. Because let's not forget, Russia's made no concessions whatsoever so far. So if Russia doesn't do that, then Ukraine will say, we will take this to the next level and you better watch out because they could cause considerable damage, you know, taking out electricity supplies, water supplies. And this could be very unpleasant for Russia.
Nicholas, thank you. That is defence analyst Nicholas Drummond. Steve Witkoff's trip to Moscow comes after a tense week for the Ukraine peace talks, with both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin turning on Vladimir Zelensky and accusing him of standing in the way of peace.
On Wednesday, we looked in detail at why Ukraine feels it cannot accept the American proposals to give up swathes of its territory and any hope of reclaiming the Crimean Peninsula. That episode is called Ukraine Peace Talks Breakdown Over US Ultimatum. Yes, it's well worth listening to Professor Scott Lucas's analysis on that. Next week, we'll be looking at Donald Trump's first 100 days in office, but we'll be zooming out and discussing...
how these three and a bit months compare to the key events of the last 50, 80, 100 years, and also, of course, what it means for the future. Our guest for those episodes will be Jim Townsend, the former Pentagon official who served as US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO policy. For now, though, that is it from us. Thank you for taking 10 minutes to stay on top of the world with the help of The Times. See you tomorrow.
Take control of the numbers and supercharge your small business with Xero. That's X-E-R-O. With our easy-to-use accounting software with automation and reporting features, you'll spend less time on manual tasks and more time understanding how your business is doing. 87% of surveyed U.S. customers agree Xero helps improve financial visibility. Search Xero with an X or visit Xero.com slash ACAST to start your 30-day free trial. Conditions apply.
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