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Bob Lighthizer: Why Trump's Tariffs are the Only Way to Save the Middle Class
2025/3/19
The Tucker Carlson Show
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Robert Lighthizer
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Ryan Reynolds
Robert Lighthizer: 我认为现有的贸易体系已经失败。它导致财富从美国转移到海外，阻碍了美国的经济增长，并导致美国工人阶级生活水平下降。美国与其他国家存在巨额贸易逆差，这使得美国越来越贫穷。自2000年以来，美国的经济增长速度大幅放缓，这与过度全球化和自由贸易有关。此外，美国的科技领先地位也在下降。在过去几十年中，美国在个人电脑、半导体和稀土等领域都失去了领先地位。更重要的是，美国工人阶级的整体生活质量显著下降，他们的工资停滞不前，预期寿命缩短，绝望感加剧。这一切都是由于全球化和自由贸易的失败造成的。美国财富分配严重不均，最富有的1%的人拥有比中间60%的人更多的财富，这在历史上是前所未有的。美国儿童不再能够期望比他们的父母生活得更好、更富有。这一切都表明，现有的贸易体系已经失败，需要改变。
解决这个问题的关键在于应对其他国家的产业政策，而不仅仅是关税。其他国家的产业政策，例如低利率贷款、压制工资的劳动制度、虚假的非科学标准以及税收制度等，都使得美国企业处于不公平的竞争地位。即使全球关税都为零，美国仍然会面临经济灾难，因为这些其他因素会给他们带来不公平的优势。我们需要一个能够平衡贸易的体系，惩罚那些长期贸易顺差的国家，并帮助那些长期贸易逆差的国家恢复平衡。我们可以通过三种方式实现贸易平衡：出口进口证书、对回流资金征税以及关税。关税是最简单、最容易理解的方式。通过关税，我们可以抵消不公平的贸易行为，增加国内生产总值，并改善美国工人的生活水平。
制造业对美国至关重要。制造业提供了更好的工资和福利，雇佣了大部分的美国工程师，并且是创新的关键。那些认为美国已经进入后工业时代的人是错误的。我们需要一个能够让父母对子女充满希望，让子女为父母感到自豪的国家。我们需要一个能够让人民从事有尊严的生产性工作的国家。
与中国的地缘政治竞争也是一个需要解决的问题。中国拥有世界上最大的军队和海军，并且正在军事化南海。他们进行大规模间谍活动，并参与经济战争。他们还资助中东和欧洲的战争，并销售芬太尼。所有这些都表明，中国对美国构成了严重的威胁。我们需要采取战略性脱钩政策，停止向中国转移财富，并建立独立的科技体系。我们需要加强对中国投资的监管，以确保这些投资符合美国的利益。
改变现有的贸易体系将会带来混乱，但好处将远远超过坏处。短期内可能会出现一些价格上涨，但长期来看，这将导致美国制造业复兴，创造更多就业机会，提高工资，并改善美国工人的生活水平。解决财富不平等问题的最佳方法是创造更多高薪工作，而不是单纯的税收政策。股票市场并非衡量经济健康状况的准确指标，尤其是在短期内。衡量经济健康状况的真正指标是大多数美国人的生活水平是否得到了改善。
Ryan Reynolds: 美国人的预期寿命下降是一个紧急情况，需要采取行动。
supporting_evidences
Robert Lighthizer: 'There's a data point called the international investment position of a country...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So the second is this system has really slowed economic growth in the United States...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'But the fourth and by far most important ramification of this process is we've seen a real decline...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'This seems like a recipe for social instability and ultimately for revolution...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'It hasn't been an accident. It doesn't feel necessarily like we've evolved into this...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'They just didn't care one way or another whether they didn't care, for example, who owned America...'
Ryan Reynolds: 'When life expectancy in an advanced country goes backward, I don't think there's any clearer sign of an emergency...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'The problem is industrial policies of other people...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'The point I'm trying to make is our multiples in terms of importance versus tariffs...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'You really need to put in place, I would say, some kind of tariffs to offset this fundamental unfairness...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So I think that's fundamentally wrong...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'Well, that's a good question, one on which I think you and I have a lot of agreement...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'And all of these bad outcomes are the result of this...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So can you just be more specific about what sort of turmoil you anticipate...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So a liberal will say, I diagnose the problem the way Lighthizer does...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So there are kind of two things...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'There are people that study this issue and say China is an existential threat...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'If you look at all of these things, you have to stop that...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'That is going to happen with tariffs...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So what China was trying to do is figure out a way to get into the U.S. market without paying the tariffs...'
Robert Lighthizer: 'So, the answer is no, and it's particularly – True in the short term...'
Deep Dive
The current trade system has led to a massive transfer of wealth overseas, slow economic growth, technological decline, and a deterioration in the quality of life for American workers. The trade deficit is a key indicator of this failure, along with a negative international investment position and stagnant wages.
- Massive transfer of wealth overseas due to trade deficits.
- Slowed economic growth in the U.S. since 2000.
- Deterioration of U.S. technological lead.
- Decline in quality of life for American working class.
Shownotes Transcript