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cover of episode How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

How economists (and TikTok) know if a recession is coming

2025/5/21
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Planet Money

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People
C
Claudia Somme
J
Justyna Zabinska-Lemonica
M
Menzi Chin
主持人
专注于电动车和能源领域的播客主持人和内容创作者。
Topics
主持人:最近在社交媒体上,关于经济衰退指标的讨论变得非常热门。我们 Planet Money 一直在关注这些指标,比如五 Guys 推出套餐、酒吧提供廉价零食、以及 Alex Earle 在 Coachella 音乐节上的发型。 TheSimplySimone:我认为五 Guys 首次推出套餐是经济衰退的迹象,因为这表明人们的经济状况正在恶化,只能负担得起更便宜的食物。 Bryce Gruber:我认为如果酒吧开始提供像芥末青豆这样便宜的零食,那就是经济衰退的迹象,因为这意味着他们正在试图降低成本。 Elisha Berman:我认为 Alex Earle 在 Coachella 音乐节上扎的凌乱发髻是经济衰退的迹象,因为只有在经济困难或者没钱打理头发的时候才会扎这种发型。这表明人们可能无法负担得起美容护理。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast explores the recent viral trend of recession indicators on social media platforms like TikTok, contrasting them with the more complex indicators used by economists. It sets the stage by highlighting the economic uncertainty of recent months and introduces the concept of various recession indicators, both humorous and serious.
  • TikTok trends highlight public anxiety about potential recession.
  • Economists use various indicators to predict recessions, unlike simple social media trends.
  • There's no single, perfect recession indicator.

Shownotes Transcript

Lately we've noticed that something we think about all the time here at Planet Money is having a viral moment: recession indicators!From the more practical (like sales for lipstick going up and men's underwear going down) to the absurd and nonsensical (like babysitter buns coming back into style?) — people are posting to social media every little sign they see that a recession is coming. And we LOVE it. Because between the trade war and the tariffs and the stock market, there has been a lot of economic uncertainty over the last few months and we want to talk about it, too.Today on the show — we dig into the slightly wonkier indicators that economists look at when they're trying to answer the question behind the viral internet trend: Is a recession coming?*This episode of Planet Money was produced by James Sneed. It was edited by Marianne McCune, fact-checked by Sarah McClure, and engineered by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is our executive producer.Find more Planet Money: Facebook) / Instagram) / TikTok) / Our weekly Newsletter).Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts) or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney).Music: Source Audio - "The Shirt Still Fits," "Chameleon Panther Style," and "Nighthawk."*Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)