cover of episode Rate Expectations

Rate Expectations

2024/9/13
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B
Brenda Miller
D
Don Cohn
G
Gina Smilick
J
Julia Fonseca
S
Sarah Haik
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Jerome Powell: 通过其公开声明，表达了美联储将在今年某个时间点降低利率的预期。 Brenda Miller: 由于拥有极低的抵押贷款利率（2.625%），她被‘黄金手铐’束缚，难以搬家以满足日益增长的家庭需求。即使当前利率已高于她当时的利率，搬家也意味着要承担更高的月供，这让她难以承受。 Julia Fonseca: 许多房主因为拥有极低的抵押贷款利率而被‘锁定’，这打破了正常的住房市场循环。许多人，即使年龄较大，也因为不愿放弃低利率抵押贷款而选择留在现有住房，导致住房供应不足，阻碍了住房市场正常运转。 Sarah Haik: 房地产经纪人预测，一旦抵押贷款利率降至5.99%，市场上就会出现大量新房源。 Don Cohn: 美联储降低利率的过程包括宣布、计算机编程以及次日生效。降低利率会影响银行的储蓄账户利率，进而影响其放贷行为，最终影响整个经济。美联储通过管理市场预期来影响利率，这和实际改变利率一样重要。 Gina Smilick: 美联储通过公开声明和管理市场预期来影响利率。即使没有实际降息，市场也会根据美联储的言论调整预期，从而影响抵押贷款利率等。市场已经预期到美联储将降低利率，因此实际降息的影响可能有限。

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Chapters
Homeowners with low mortgage rates are hesitant to move due to higher current rates, creating a "golden handcuff" effect. This phenomenon, coupled with other factors, has significantly impacted the housing market. The upcoming Fed decision on interest rates is highly anticipated, as it could potentially alleviate this situation and influence the market.
  • Homeowners with low mortgage rates (2.625%) are hesitant to move due to current higher rates (6.35%).
  • This "golden handcuff" effect is impacting the housing market by limiting supply and affecting affordability.
  • The Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates is highly anticipated as it could impact the housing market.

Shownotes Transcript

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to get inflation under control. One side effect is that taking out a mortgage to buy a home has gotten very expensive. That's especially a problem for some homeowners who managed to get a lower mortgage rate years ago. They have a sort of... champagne problem. Or, "golden handcuffs" as it's called.These homeowners may find they are "locked in" to their current home. In order to move to a new home, they have to take out a new mortgage at a much higher rate. It is one of the many problems plaguing the housing market right now.The Fed is expected to start cutting rates next week. Will the golden handcuff mess finally start to unlock? And what does it mean for people looking to buy their first home?On today's episode: We go deep into the golden handcuff problem and why it matters for everyone (including non-homeowners). We have FOMO about a big economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And we contemplate how to pronounce one of the most important interest rates in the economy: The IORB.*This episode was hosted by Kenny Malone and Alexi Horowitz-Ghazi. It was produced by Sean Saldana. It was edited by Jess Jiang and fact-checked by Sierra Juarez. Engineering by Cena Loffredo. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts) or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney).*Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)