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cover of episode The U.S.-China trade war, according to game theory

The U.S.-China trade war, according to game theory

2025/5/30
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E
Emily Blanchard
Y
Yun Sun
中
中国外交部
主
主持人
专注于电动车和能源领域的播客主持人和内容创作者。
特
特朗普总统
领导成立政府效率部门（DOGE），旨在削减政府浪费和提高效率。
Topics
主持人：美中贸易关系让人困惑，两国目标不明。最初的关税战升级后又降级，让人难以理解其背后的策略。 Emily Blanchard：作为贸易经济学家，我认为理解这场贸易战的关键在于运用博弈论。每个行为选择都反映了参与者的激励，而结果不仅取决于自身，还取决于对方的选择。如果误判了游戏类型，采取了错误的策略，后果将非常糟糕。特朗普政府可能最初认为这是“要么接受，要么放弃”的最后通牒游戏，但中国采取了反制措施，表明并非如此。也可能美国认为自己玩的是囚徒困境，但低估了发动贸易战的代价。 Yun Sun：有观点认为，美中贸易战类似于“胆小鬼游戏”，双方都想展示强硬姿态。但从长远来看，更准确的描述是“消耗战”，比拼谁更能承受损失。中国为这场消耗战做好了充分准备，重建了供应链，并采取措施规避关税。此外，中国政府对媒体和舆论的控制，使得其在国内的政治压力小于美国。中国开始意识到特朗普容易受到国内压力的影响，并可能在未来的谈判中加以利用。 supporting_evidences Emily Blanchard: 'And Emily told us the tool she keeps returning to to make sense of all of this chaos is this one particular branch of economics, game theory.' Emily Blanchard: 'What happens if you think you're playing one game, but in fact you're playing a very different game? What are the consequences of that? It's very bad.' Yun Sun: 'The most commonly used framing from media, from experts, is a game of chicken.' Yun Sun: 'But Yun says in a lot of ways, China was actually super well prepared for a trade war of attrition.'

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast explores the complexities of the US-China trade war using game theory. It questions whether the conflict is a straightforward game of chicken or a more intricate scenario, like the prisoner's dilemma, and aims to identify the game being played to understand the strategies involved.
  • Game theory is used to analyze the US-China trade war.
  • Several game theory models are considered, including the Prisoner's Dilemma, Stag Hunt, and Chicken.
  • The podcast questions whether the US and China have even identified the game they are playing.

Shownotes Transcript

Over the last few months U.S.-China trade relations have been pretty hard to make sense of – unless you look at what's happening through the lens of game theory. Game theory is all about how decisions are made, based not just on one side's options and payoffs, but on the choices and incentives of others.So, are Donald Trump and Xi Jinping competing in a simple game of chicken? Or is the game more like the prisoner's dilemma? On today's show, we try to decide which of four possibilities might be the best model for this incredibly high-stakes game. And we take a look at who is playing well and who might need to adjust their strategy.For more on the U.S.-China trade war: - The 145% tariff already did its damage) - What happened to U.S. farmers during the last trade war) - What "Made in China" actually means)*This show was hosted by Keith Romer and Amanda Aronczyk. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler. It was edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez and engineered by Kwesi Lee with help from Robert Rodriguez and Cena Lofreddo. Additional production help from Sylvie Douglis. Alex Goldmark is Planet Money's executive producer. Find more Planet Money: Facebook) / Instagram) / TikTok) / Our weekly Newsletter).Listen free at these links: Apple Podcasts), Spotify), the NPR app) or anywhere you get podcasts.Help support Planet Money and hear our bonus episodes by subscribing to Planet Money+ in Apple Podcasts) or at plus.npr.org/planetmoney).*Learn more about sponsor message choices: podcastchoices.com/adchoices)NPR Privacy Policy)