Week 17 deep dives & Xmas games recap: Burrow vs. Broncos D, Penix vs. Daniels, Packers-Vikings
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On this episode of Football 301, Charles McDonald joins me to preview Week 17. We got deep dives on some of the juiciest matchups from this weekend. We got Bengals and Broncos. We got Vikings, Packers, and NFC Central. I'm kidding. NFC North, brouhaha. We got Falcons and Commanders. We got a couple of slop watch games. Got a mailbag question at the end. And we also recap the Christmas games from Netflix. Very fun show. Week 17. Here we go. See you guys in a sec.

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Hello and welcome back to Football 301. It's the week 17 preview, not the last game of the regular season. No, this is the penultimate, penultimate, dang it, almost nailed that word, penultimate last game for the NFL's regular season of 2024. We're going to be previewing three of the juiciest matchups that we have found. We're going to also review the Netflix Christmas games that we've

two for one Wednesday slobber knocker special that we got yesterday. I think me and Charles might have been on the big board there. We might have been on the front desk. You know, I think we got hired by Netflix. We're two of the a hundred people that did that show. We're also gonna do a little dual slop watch at the end of it. Answer a mailbag question. Really good stuff for week 17. I already mentioned his name, but as always on Thursday to help me preview week 17 is my guy, Mr. Fourverts, Charles McDonald. How you do today, Chuck?

Doing all right. If Netflix had come calling, then maybe, you know, Santa's bag would have been a little heavier yesterday for the gifts we were giving out. But, hey, it's always next year. It's always next year of the years after that. But I'm doing all right. Doing all right. You know, it's good to always just kind of kick back and, you know,

Press the press the brake when you can, because we're about to hit the final sprint. I know every everyone we talk to is pretty tired around this time of year. So I hope everyone who's listening, you know, getting some rest and making good plans for the new year because we are we are right there. 2024 is just about over.

We are right there. Is there going to be like a Netflix 2, maybe they'll call us? You know, I go like, you know, I'm picturing the old ESPN 2 and lowercase writing that they used to have. Maybe that's what I'll hire us for. The alt-optic broadcast. Yeah, the alt- We're the alt-broadcast for the alt-broadcast. Yeah, and it's just you and me sitting in the room drinking mulled wine going, God, that sucked. Two points? What is that?

Yeah. What's that Ravens coach doing? Jumping on him. That's all I'm going to comment on. And then find some tweets to critique. That's me watching a football game. But let's get into some of those. It's better in writing. I wrote Netflix mis...

on Twitter and it worked out well, but it doesn't really when you say it out loud. But those Netflix Christmas games, which featured a couple of blowouts, they were tight a little early and then the kind of better teams won out in the end, including in the first game, we had a Chiefs victory over the Steelers, 29 to 10. Chiefs clinched that number one seed. They are now 15 and one, which, wow.

I don't know if you guys know this, but 15 and one's a pretty good record. That's a, that's a, that's like best record in the NFL. That's like historically good record and really a record that a lot of people are trying to find critiques on. And then we're all realizing, I think right now that this chiefs team is building up and ramping up and doing their thing where they turn it all on in December and

I have a red zone play. I want to break down from this game, which was a Russell Wilson interception where George Pickens did not run a route. And I'll explain for the YouTube viewers why that was important. Break it down a little X's and O's, little scheme stuff. But Charles, when you were watching this game, your review of it, what'd you think about the Chiefs? What'd you think about the Steelers? Maybe how they're looking for the rest of the season, two weeks or really one week and then the playoffs.

I think Netflix Miss was perfect because you got Miss in there, which they did with both of these games. I mean, it was like... I know. The production was good. At least they had that. Yeah.

Yes, production was great. Our friend Mignolet was great. It was awesome. But this game, like, and I guess this is true for both these games, but I don't know why this one especially. It felt like watching the Chiefs, or not the Chiefs, the Steelers just get, like, slowly wrapped by Bo Constrictor. And by the end of the game, you're just like, oh, man, these guys don't have anything for...

for what the chiefs are, are bringing them. And you, and you can't even really use like the George Pickens excuse this time because, uh, he played, he had some, some, uh, you know, a couple of big plays that they usually need to actually get going and score points. But like the points never really came in this one. Uh, they lost 29 to 10, uh,

I just looked at their rushing totals, and if you look at the box score, they ran for 200 yards and 6.5 yards to attempt. But, dude, go back and watch the final drive of the game. Like,

Because I would have to guess that Najee Harris got like 50 of his yards on that last drive. Got some chiefies there. Yeah, I don't remember if it was J.J. Watt in the booth or whoever said it, but they nailed it when they said that final drive looked like

a clip from the Pro Bowl, you know, where, dude, the game's over. The Chiefs are up by three scores. Mike Tomlin, they're not even calling. Right, dude. Dude, they're not even calling timeouts. The Steelers had three timeouts on the final drive. They were down by 19 points. It didn't cost a single one. And, like, the offensive line, defensive line, they weren't even engaging with each other, you know? They're playing, like, pillow hands, like, oh, my God, like, let me just get home, get back to this plane for...

so I can salvage whatever is left of this Christmas. So I just thought it was kind of what we knew about the Steelers who don't quite have enough juice probably to beat the top teams in the AFC. Patrick Mahomes was absolutely on fire in this one. That was probably one of his better games of the season. And now...

You look back at the last few games, I guess Chiefs look pretty good, rolling back in the right direction right as the playoffs start. And like Ned said at the start, they are 15-1. 15-1. It's really, really hard to do that in the NFL. Even if you're a flawed team, to win 15 games and only lose one time is pretty difficult. So watch out.

Watch out. They are everyone. Well, there's all the stats like, oh, they haven't scored more than 30 and they're 15 and one. Look how lucky they are. No, they just dominate. This is a team complimentary, complimentary football. Geez, I can talk today.

but that's really just how they're playing. The defense is really good against the run and good enough against the pass, and they can make it hard if you don't have a top passing game, which the Steelers don't. I don't think anyone would be offended if I say that, and I think they're good enough against the run that that usual thorn doesn't go against them. The defense is good, even without Chris Jones out there. It's not to the extent of last year, which felt like a legit top three unit. This one feels more

Top six, top eight. You know, good to very good as opposed to elite. But they're still good. And then they still have Mahomes. And they still have a good run game. And they still have... Now they have Joe Tooney at left tackle. Okay, we just...

shored up that huge thorn in our side. Wow. All right. So now we're the other answers. Now they got Hollywood Brown and they're getting him involved. Okay. So they're just getting better as they're 15 and one. That's why they're a team. That's probably one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. I did think like that first drive by the Steelers.

i was like oh yeah this is your formula like they had a bunch of great runs to jalen warren who should get 80 of the touches from the backfield as he should have the whole year as he's been healthy beautiful goalball to george pickens and then the i believe they scored it got called on a holding from by darnell washington and then russell's the interception uh on the next play and that's the one where

It's for Vert's concept. And I tweeted it. At first, I thought just something else happened. And then I realized Pickens didn't run a route. I thought it was just Justin Reed. When I first saw the play happen, I thought Reed, I was going to highlight Reed and go, wow, look how aware he is, man. Just cutting off this play. Like, that's really impressive. Like, really high awareness play because he's one of the smartest defenders, yada, yada.

And then I realized George Pickens just didn't run a route. And people want to argue with me like, oh, why did Russ just throw it then? It's like, well, it's the red zone. And then the red zone, you throw it. You can't hesitate. There's no room to hesitate. So you have to assume some things. And I'm sure they had that play perfectly game planned. Four strong, all this stuff, bunch formation. And then Reed is a cover two backside safety. And...

Pickens just gets pressed against McDuffie. He just stops running his route. So Reed's like, okay, I'm just going to go over here to the trip side and picks off the route. So look bad on the tail end, but that's why you need all four routes. This is why receivers have to run full speed because even if you're not, it's the line they like to say is for the love of the game. But that's what you have to do because if Pickens

Pickens runs his go route. That's four verts. People are going, how do you know what the concept is? I can guarantee you it's four verts. I just know what this concept is, which is great talking to you about it. But the Pickens being the lone receiver, he has to run outside against McDuffie, who's a cover two corner, and that's called must outside release. And when he goes outside there, that holds Reed because they're clouding him. They're double teaming Pickens essentially.

But if he doesn't do anything, then Reed can do whatever he wants. And it's just, these are the details of football. Like, these are the, people think receivers can just, receivers think this. Oh, I don't have to run here. And then once they get to the NFL, they realize, whoosh. Some of them are coached nowadays in some of these offenses. And it's,

the Bryles offense. Yes. Corey Coleman tape is what comes to mind when I think about that. They just literally don't have a route. Like they just stand there, just take a break. And you can't do that in the NFL. It's all these details matter because if one guy doesn't do a thing, the other team is so smart, they'll take advantage of it. A defensive guy isn't in his gap. Boom, run game. Boom. They just pop it for a touchdown. So it was just one of those things where it's like, yeah, it looks terrible for us. And like,

I'm not here defending Russ on this. I'm just saying that these details matter, and that's why the Steelers offense is like even their best, their most important player is also causing damage for them as well. So I still like the Steelers defense. I think the offense is still frisky better than it's been in the last few years, obviously, but.

kind of show the tier difference between a true contender like the Chiefs and what the Steelers are, which is a, you know, a playoff team. But can they win a game? We'll see. The last thing I have on that, it's always so funny when people get upset about, like, how dare Russell Wilson think his teammates are going to run the route he's supposed to run? Like, that's his damn job. Like, that's his job. People really think that, though. It's...

I had someone quote to me and go, quarterbacks always making excuses. And then I was like, and then meanwhile, Terrell Owens is also like blaming Pickens on that. It's like Nate Burleson, who did a great, Nate Burleson and JJ did a great job. Yeah. JJ Watt. They really did. And Nate, right after the thing, just,

He pointed it out right away. I saw it. He saw it. And he was like, yeah, he's got to run his route. Reed can just do what he did right there. And people are still arguing, going like, Russ there, man, how do you know that? How can you assume? Someone goes, it was probably an out route because Pickens wouldn't run that. It's like, yeah, okay, whatever you guys, you guys got all freaking out. An out route with three verts on the other side. You're asking Justin Reed to just make the play there.

Out route with three verts and against a cloud corner. They're like, no one runs out route against cover two. No, he just stands there and pushes them. I know. So, yeah, that was an interesting play. But going on to the afternoon Christmas game, that was the Ravens winning 31-2 against the Texans.

Uh, you have some history of losing games as a Falcons fan. Two points. That was a very funny tweet. That was, what was that? The giants 2011. Yeah. Yeah. I think wasn't like a failed fourth down.

That was really significant in that game? Probably. I don't remember exactly, but I do remember they were one of the few teams in NFL history to not have a turnover or a sack in a game and still not score any points on offense. Such a Falcon set. Yeah, because the one thing I remember was Jonathan Baden, though, he got a safety on one of the first drives of the game. And then the Falcons didn't score again, and the Giants scored 24 straight points. And that was...

That was, like, going into my senior spring of high school. And I was like, damn, I'm kind of over this team. Like, this is pretty trash. And then they had the season. Here we go, 13 years later. Right. Because, like, the next season, like, I was like, I'm going to be in college. But then that was the year they went on the run and they played the 49ers in the NFC title game. So I was back in and then, you know, whatever.

Boom, boom, boom, 23 happens, and here we are. Here we are. Well, yeah, no, I... There's... Yeah, you can do anything about the Falcons. We'll talk about them in a sec. But, yeah, that... I was glad you tweeted that because I was like, I feel like they're losing with only two points. It feels worse than getting skunked for some reason. I agree. I agree. Yeah. When you watch this, though, what was your takeaway? Like, what really... Do you think that...

I mean, this is a pretty good snapshot of what's kind of going on with the Texans right now, I think. But what were some of your takeaways with this? Ravens, of course, impressive, but some of your negative takeaways maybe from the Texans. Man, the front seven play. Front seven and, I guess, O-line play for Texans is...

That was embarrassing. Trench play. Yeah, trench play. For both sides of the ball, it was really bad. Because I think the Texans, they fell into, well, the Ravens, they don't need to actually drop back and throw the ball, but to score points. Because what Lamar had, he threw the ball 15 times yesterday. Did get 168 yards, two touchdowns. He was only sacked one time on those 15 pass attempts.

But, like, dude, if the Texans are in a spot where the team they're playing doesn't have to fear their pass rush, they're probably just going to get absolutely demolished. Because as we've talked about, like, the middle of that defense, like the spine of that defense, especially in the front seven, it's just weak. It's just weak. So when you play, you know, Lamar Jackson –

um, Derek Henry and both of those guys combined are rushing for over 200 yards, um, against you. Uh, Keaton Mitchell pitching with another 20. You had what was like a 50 yard Lamar Jackson rush for a touchdown. Uh, Derek Henry had a few big runs. It was just so hard for them to get off the field that, um,

I mean, no one thought that at this point in the season, I don't think anyone thought that they were like a serious contender. But to see them just get run off the field in such a physical, dominating manner was, you're like, man, you guys are a lot farther away than probably you think you are going into next season. Or maybe that even most people thought they were. Even people who were detractors against the Texans. I don't know if they saw them looking like this bad really at any point in the season. So,

On the flip side, on offense, you're not pass-protecting well. You can't block simple ET stunts like high school stuff. Guys are coming untouched. Do you have a shout-out, Kyle Van Noy? Coworker. Yeah, Coworker Van Noy. Yeah, Coworker Van Noy. He hit 11 or 12 sacks for the season this week, which is pretty crazy. And one of them, they just didn't block him. You got to take what you can get. But I think for the Texans...

That's pretty alarming that you should have a lot of these protection problems shored up that you don't have, especially with what you spent on the offensive line. Like, Laramie Tunsell's getting paid. You've paid Titus Howard. You drafted Juice Drugs. You drafted Kenyon Green. I mean, come on. You should be a lot better than this, and they're not. I think that that's pretty alarming for where they want to be next year.

They were a dark horse team or sleeper team for, I think for a lot of people as maybe a team that can get hot in the AFC. And I think what you're getting at is exactly right where it's like, Oh no, they're not a bad team, but they have way more things to figure out than, than just one little ad. You know, it's not like, Oh, they just had to get healthy and they got unlucky there or, Oh no, they really need a tight end, you know, or they need a guard or something like that. It's like, no, they need multiple alignment. They need a new offensive line coach. In my opinion, they need,

I mean, healthy receivers, of course, which Tank Dell,

Sadly, it doesn't. I mean, that's a significant injury. It was a Shawn Livingston-esque injury, essentially. By the way, Shawn Livingston is my neighbor in Vegas. Him and I go to the same breakfast spot all the time. So, yeah. He actually commented on my son. He said, he goes, you better get him dribbling. And I was like, oh, no, I will. Shawn Livingston. Shawn Livingston, I will. Shawn Livingston, I will. I will. Six, seven point guard. Yeah. Yeah. Can I get him with you? No, but it's...

Significant injury for Tank Dell. And I mean, I think that a lot is being made about their pass catchers and everything. But it's the line. I mean, that's the story of the season for the Texans, which we knew was a weakness going into the year. But it was like by math, it just looked like it had to improve.

And no, it definitely has not. It's one of the worst run games in the NFL. Stroud's under duress. Stroud is missing throws now because he just feels like he has to get rid of the ball earlier than maybe even when he is clean. So that's just a trickle down of a whole season of getting his ass kicked. The offensive line, you mentioned it. Shoot. The scheme botches is what

gets you about the Texans offensive line. When you lose one-on-ones, it is what it is. Like, you know, you see a guy's just losing. That happens. Like, that happens all the time in the NFL. But when guys are just going the wrong way and it's vets that are paid, that...

That signifies to me that there's a game planning issue or a teaching issue. If it's just one guy losing all the time, like the Bears right guard, I'm blanking on his name, number 79, botches all the time. But then I watch the other four guys and they actually look okay. So that's why I've been a little bit more like, hey, the Bears offense line's a little better than I think made it out to be. But then I watched the Texans. It's like, okay, Shaq Mason is mentally messing up. Laramie Tunsell is mentally messing up. And I know Shaq's gotten hurt. They've reconfigured the line, but it's like, man,

You can't win that way. Like, it's not just losing by talent. You're losing by scheme with talent not getting there anyways. Like I said, and then Stroud does what he can. But when if he's not on, if he misses a couple of throws, it turns into a game like this. They can't run the ball. I can't rely on anything like that. Can't run screens, can't protect. And then on defense, it was the worst situation.

stylistic matchup for them possible. You got a light bodies. Texans love being in five DBs against with gap shooters up front against an offense that can steamroll you. That is fine going big bodies and just running down your throat. Texans have allowed the highest explosive run rate. They're 31st in rushing success rate going into this game.

And then I don't think those numbers got any better going against the Ravens, who are the best run game in the NFL or one of the best any way you shake it. So I do also want to shout out. We've hit that this touch on this a little bit last week is that because we

Ravens have played two games since in a week is that ever since they moved Kyle Hamilton back to deep safety, it's totally changed their defense. And I looked up again, their first defensive pass success rate since they did this in week 10, they were 23rd before they made the change. Their seventh knee paper drop back. They were 30th before they made this change. They were 10th in explosive pass rate. They were 32nd in that before they made this change. That's

That's a league altering personnel change, not just a team altering, but that changes the whole landscape. Because now what we've been talking about the Ravens this whole year, love their offense, love their run defense.

they give up like 10 explosive passes a game. I don't know if you can win that way now, now they can. So now they're a contender to me, like a true, true locked in contender. That's good for them. The Ravens looked like a contender. The Texans looked like they still have plenty to figure out this off seasons. Any more on this game? It just kind of, I mean, the Texas Ravens just kind of took care of it. I mean, that's really, that's all that happened. Yeah. I guess I'll be interested to see if the Texans make any shakeups on their coaching staff. Yeah.

Because, dude, like, the... It's just the one play that stands out to me. Like, we just talked about the Van Noy sack on the ET twist. Like, dude, are you guys, like, not speaking to each other on the field? Because...

That's something that JV players can figure out. That was pretty alarming, how much unblocked pressure. I think during the broadcast, I said that CJ Stroud is one of the leaders in unblocked pressures faced or quick pressures faced that are unblocked from the interior, which is no good. He's a good quarterback. I've seen a lot of people saying what's wrong with him. I think at this point, he just punched drunk, but it's not...

it's not so bad that you can't get back moving in the right direction next year we've just seen too much good out of him yeah yeah and then he's got just a little little antsiness right now but they sure it up like you say it

A lot hinges on who they're, I don't know if they do anything at OC, but maybe if they change OCs, but definitely they have to change their line coach because I'm just, I've not heard anything. This is just me watching it. You can't keep going this way, especially with what they have invested there. And it's just, it's a domino effect right now. A lot's being made about the pass catchers. I'm keep saying this.

The Texas offensive line is the whole story of their season. So if you don't bring that up first before you talk about Stroud or why this guy is not getting the yards, why they're not winning or why they're putting up two points and you're not bringing up the offensive line, you're kind of missing the big story with this team right now. So Ravens contenders, Texans, not really. And that is it for the Christmas games this year. Luckily, we don't have to face any Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday games or Tuesday, Wednesday games, I think, for a few years. So, yeah.

But we are going to take a quick break and then we are going to get a deep dive into our big games from week 17.

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All right, we are back. Let's get into the deep dive for week 17. That was good. I was just, what was the movie, a submarine movie with freaking Denzel Washington and Gene Hackman as Google hears me. Crimson Tide. Have you seen Crimson Tide? I'm sure I have at some point because I got locked on Denzel movies a while back.

Oh, you should. It's a, it's, it's peak Denzel, you know, where he's the smartest guy in the room and every scene. Yeah. Yeah. It's peak Denzel and Gene Hackman's great heel on it too. So yeah. Highly recommend it. Yeah. I've got Viggo Mortensen's in it. You know, um, James Kimball. Yes. Yes. He is. No, definitely check it out. Very, very good movie. Anyways, let's get into it. We got Broncos at bangles bangles with three point favorites. This is our house fight of the week.

Every time. Big smile on our faces every time. After that one. We get the double soundbar here. Yes.

Bengals offense, Broncos defense. This deserves our Hoss Fire of the Week. We have one of the best offenses in the NFL, one of the best defenses in the NFL going against each other. Other side of the ball, maybe we'll talk about it in a sec. But anyways, when you're watching this game, Charles, which has some playoff significance, the Bengals are fighting for their lives. Broncos have to win out. I mean, they have a stranglehold on their playoff lead, but they still have to win out to clinch it.

what are you checking out in this game i don't think they even have to they just won one game they don't have to win one game and they make the playoffs but when you check out this game what is what are some of the things that you are checking out yeah i think specifically this game too um will certainly knock the bangles out of playoff contention if they lose um but uh the chargers the broncos are also rather cost of clinching that uh that spot for themselves which is

Pretty impressive because a lot of people thought they were just going to suck this season. And they're competent. They're a real football team. They don't suck. They don't suck. They don't suck, you know? The defense is really good. The defense is really good. And I just want to see if Joe Burrow can continue to stand tall against some of the—

shortcomings that his offensive line is placing in front of him. Because I think that there's going to be a lot of that this week too. I've been looking at stats since the Bengals by week 11 by they are, you know, basically top five offense, top 10 offense, no matter which way you want to cut it. Except when it comes to pressure rate allowed since week 12, they're 17th. The Broncos are first in pressure rate, 44%.

44% of opposing dropbacks are under pressure for the Broncos over the last month. So we know that those situations that Joe Burrow... That's what the Patriots have allowed this year from perspective. Yeah, they got dudes running for their lives. But if there's any quarterback that I'd say that's probably been equipped for...

Some of that is Burrow. I don't have his precious numbers right in front of me, but just anecdotally speaking, he's been absolutely insane with some of the work that he's done under duress. We talked about the Cowboys game a couple times. He had a play this weekend where he was literally falling down and threw a pass

to Tee Higgins for a touchdown. So he's playing MVP football. It hasn't mattered too much as far as it wins, or maybe we should frame it as imagine how bad they would be if they didn't have Drew Burrow on their roster because, dude, he has covered up so much. The offensive general has allowed him

this defense to exist and for them to even have like a last dying chance at the playoffs at the end of the season, I think is a testament to what he's done. So really, I just want to see

When Joe Burrow has the ball, there's going to be pressure in his face. It's going to be tough sledding throwing against the cornerbacks and the defensive backs that the Broncos have. But I really just want to see if he can kind of continue the Herculean performances that he's had. Because I don't think there's anything that's more interesting, really, in professional sports than when...

a great team or a great player, like they just have to have something like their backs against the wall. They're trying to get it. And that's where the Bengals are as far as their playoff hopes. So, you know, you have a really tough test as far as Denver's defense goes, but he's been standing up to these challenges for the vast majority of the season. So I want to see him do it again.

Yeah, I agree. This is, this is him shooting his way out, especially this matchup. Uh, yeah, the bang, uh, Broncos would lock it up with a win. If they lose their playoff chances, go down to 58%. They can still win, but they played the chiefs week 18, which could be interesting with chiefs sitting guys. Uh,

all that type, all those types of things. The, the bangles are at 4%. It goes to 6% with the wind and then 8% if they went out. So it's a small chance in hell, but there's still a chance, uh, that this could happen. But everything that you just broke down that that's why this game is our kind of our house fight is you got a Broncos defense that is fourth and DVO way.

which is just for opponent is way more. They have a weighted stat too. They're highly ranked in that as far as recent play, second and pressure rate overall, or second and pressure rate. You said first for that time period, second sacks, their second and run stuff rate, second and EPA per rush, first and EPA per pass, first and EPA per play, first and every success rate metric, first, first, first, second, second, second, everything.

And then that Bengals offense, like you said, top five and everything. Rushing success rate, not as successful. They're 28th right now, which is interesting. But they live and die with...

Burrow at the controls, nickel and diming, doing what a lot of quarterbacks wish they could do, which is do that kind of Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Green Bay impression where they're in the gun every snap and pointing, shooting, and actually being that sheriff cowboy quarterback. But a lot of them can't do it, but Burrow can. But I just think this is a great Haas fight. That's why we brought it up. It's a great stylistic matchup. Usually Haas fights are the trenches, right?

Broncos more or less have that. But going with this Bengals team, they have it on the outside. They have it with T. Higgins, Jamar Chase going against Patrick Sertan II, and Raleigh Moss, who's back from injury, which is a big deal. Broncos are remarkably healthy, which is significant going into this. So, yeah, I just wanted to highlight this game because it's just such a fun, stylistic matchup on this side of the ball. The other side of the ball is, you know, it's...

It's all right. But you got the, you know, you have a bottom five Bengals defense who are bottom five against the run, especially their 32nd and rushing success rate allowed 30th and sacks per pass attempt 24th and pressure rate. They don't blitz that much going. It's a Broncos team who, you know, I said they have a good run game. Broncos fans don't agree with me, but they're 13th and running back rushing success rate, which is ahead of the Eagles, by the way. But this is a great opportunity for them to have a clean path.

Run the ball. Keep it nice and easy for Bo Nix. They don't blitz a lot. They don't get a ton of pressure. A little bit on third and fourth down with Hendrickson. But this is a good game for them to control the game script. I'm sure Sean Payton is just licking his chops about the opening script. But just a real smooth game plan for them on that side of the ball. But, man, the other side with Bengals offense, Broncos defense, it's just going to be a fun Vance Joseph game.

Broncos, Banshees versus Joe Burrow and these receivers and pass again. Be a really pretty, pretty fun, pretty fun house fight. And, you know, when you look at our mock draft or you look at any other mock draft that comes out, um,

you know, over the next few months, you're probably going to see a defensive player in that spot for the Bengals in the first round. And there's a good reason for that. Kenneth Grant this week. Yes, that was a good one. If I watch the Bengals right now, the first thing I think they need is like, oh my God, you just need someone to fight in the middle. Like just put up a fight, a literal fist fight if it comes to it, because they are getting...

dog walked like every week. It doesn't matter who, who's out there. Yeah. Sometimes I feel like you and me could go put out a deuce block on whoever they got on, you know, a three-shot and you can just walk them back to a linebacker. It's really bad. It's really bad. So if I'm a Bengals, if I'm a Bengals fan, if I'm a Broncos fan who's, you know, get

Getting a little antsy at some of the recent offensive performances of what the Broncos have put forward. At least, you know, this is a good get-right game as you go into the playoffs. Now, every team you play moving forward won't have a defense as bad as the Bengals, but, like, it's a good starting spot to at least, you know, start...

start to get back into some productive practices on offense. Cause even like you look over the past month for the Broncos, this looks like just a pretty soft matchup. They're 25th success rate, 27th drop back success rate, 29th percentage of plays are first downs of touchdown, 25th in yards per play. So like they're performing like a bottom, um,

seven bottom five ish offense right now no reason look like that against the bangles so if you can't get this right you're you're probably looking like a real one and done team what's the playoff start

Right. This is a nice little mouthwash game. And then they go against the Chiefs who are probably sitting there starters. It's like, okay, ramp up for the playoffs. You know, that's like a perfect little ramp up into it. I think someone put out like, who would they be playing against if the season had today? Obviously, I could just pick that up. They would play the Bills. Yes. Yeah.

which would be another interesting stylistic matchup. Especially how the Bills' defense has looked lately. It's kind of opposite. Them against the pass is not as great. We'll cross that bridge in a few weeks before we get ahead of ourselves. All right, before we wrap this game up, predictions for Bengals, Broncos. Bengals are three-point favorites at home. This is tough. I think I'm going to roll with...

The Broncos, just because I think they can get maybe one or two stops that the Bengals don't get that get them across the finish line. But this is going to be a close one. It's a pretty good game. I think I'm going to go Bengals here, but that's close. I think it's going to be a nice little shootout here. I think the Bengals are going to get after them a little bit. The Chargers were able to get after this defense a little bit. So, yeah, I'm going to go with the Bengals here, but I think it's going to be a fun one.

All right, going on to our next game, a game that's near and dear to my heart from my childhood. We have the Packers at the Vikings. The Vikings are one point underdogs at home, despite battling for that number one seed right now. Vikings win this game. The NFC North will be decided when they face Detroit in week 18. Jair Alexander, even though he practiced, is going to be out because...

whatever you will figure it out at some point in the future. I'm sure a story will come out about it. Um, Ivan pace is potentially back for the Vikings at linebacker. Harrison Smith did not participate in practice on Wednesday, but should be playing. Uh, Christian Watson did not participate. I think they didn't practice, but they just kind of like estimated that he did not participate. Um, Evan Williams, the rookie defensive back for the Packers did not participate as well. Um, but man,

I am stoked for this game. I have a lot of notes, but before I take up all the air, Charles Packers, offense, Vikings defense, what are you checking out on this side of all Jordan love against Brian Flores? Well, I'm kind of looking at similar things on both sides, as far as like both offenses are concerned. And I just want to see if the Packers and the Vikings, if their recent run game trends continue, because I,

This is just looking at since the Packers by, which is a week 10. So all these numbers are since week 11. The Packers are second in success rate rushing the ball. Vikings are 20th. The Packers are fifth in EPA per rush. The Vikings are 24th. The Packers are fifth in terms of percent of rushes that go through zero or negative yards. The Vikings are 24th again in that. So they've...

The Vikings run game, it hasn't quite lived up to, like, I think the standard they had built earlier in the season where it seemed like that was just such a big, you know, a piece of their offense that could kind of help get their play-action game going because you have to take the run game as a credible threat or at least just address it up in a credible manner. So it's been interesting, I think, seeing over the past couple weeks, like, how the Vikings' offense has evolved. And I think a lot of it is, like,

it seems like Sam Darnold is just closing his eyes at times and just saying, Jordan's down there somewhere. Justin's down there somewhere. And it's honestly not a bad bet to make. So if, if, if Jair Alexander isn't going to play and the Vikings can't run the ball and they're struggling in that manner, I wonder if,

That's the spot where the Vikings need to start taking chunks of yards off the upfield at a time. So I wonder if the Packers kind of lean on their run game, which has been dominant recently, just to stabilize the game and maybe take some of the chaotic chunk plays that the Vikings are going to go after out of it. Because I think the recent trends...

I suggest that the Packers are probably playing a little bit better than the Vikings, just on a down-per-down basis, play-by-play basis. The run game is going to be really key for both sides. I really like what the Packers are doing on their side of the ball. I think they have some of the coolest run game designs in the league, especially how they're using motion to bring guys in the backfield. And then just for a split second, you have what a normal offense looks like, but

right in the lead up to that, there's a lot going on for the defense to look at. So I'm tentatively in favor of the Packers this week. They're running the ball really well. Jordan loves playing out of his mind. But if they can just avoid some of the third downs where they're going to come after you and that's where they struggle some this year, they should be all right on that side of the ball for the Packers.

Yeah, I looked at this and it was, you know, the Packers, I kind of did the same thing. The Packers are so young. And after last year, they had a big splits after their bye week and after a mini bye week. And this year I was kind of expecting them to do the same thing. Sure.

Sure enough, they've turned into a top four, top five offense. And you did the run game stuff, even pass game stuff. I mean, same stuff. They're 30 people per play, fourth in overall success rate, explosive player rate, yards per play. So everything you just painted out is that this Packers team is ascending and peaking at the right time. Totally makes narrative sense when you remember that they're the youngest team. They're like, oh yeah, young guys get better. Arrow point up, disco stew to the moon. But I love this play.

stylistic matchup of Jordan Love, Matt LaFleur, that offense going against the Brian Flores defense, which makes you do the big boy things at quarterback. And that's why it was kind of cool watching Gino do it last week. It wasn't all perfect, but I thought the Seahawks and Gino actually got after the Vikings defense at moments. You know, they caught them other times, obviously with turnovers and everything, but they were, you know, able to move the ball and hit some chunk plays. So I kind of looked at the previous matchups between Love and Flores, and I know

I just say Flores, and I'm just talking about 11 Vikings defenders. It's like he's just the button, Vikings defense. I just say Flores. But Jordan Love will push the ball. He pushes the ball far anyways. He pushes the ball even further against the Vikings defense, about two yards further than he has normally, over 10 yards per pass attempt, air yards per pass attempt against the Vikings defense from the last two years. Success rate's been about the same. What was really interesting was when they played in week four this year,

Brian Flores ran more zone coverage than he ever has as a Vikings defense coordinator in two years. They didn't run a single snap of true man coverage of cover one. They did some other hybrid stuff, but they blitzed about the typical rate, a lot of quarters. The Vikings jumped out to hugely in that game, 28-0. The Packers chipped back, you know, ended up with

Love had a wonky stat line, like 350 yards, four touchdowns, three picks is the craziest stat line because they were just chucking it, chucking it, chucking it. But I thought it was really interesting that they ran so much zone, especially

especially going against the Packers defense or Packers offense, where you don't know who their number one pass catcher is every week, which helps against zone. And sure enough, Jordan Love against zone. Top five in every rate. Success rate, fifth. EPA per drop back, third. Third most touchdowns, second in yards per attempt, only behind Lamar. Second in average depth of completion. So this is, again, a matchup Jordan Love is fine with. Oh, okay, I'm going to hang in the pocket. He doesn't take sacks. He's only taken four since their bye week.

Push back, push back, push the ball. You're going to see a lot of dagger concepts. That's how you have to get after this Vikings defense. Love likes doing it. And the Packers offense likes doing it. And like you said, they're good at running the ball. So this is the formula to get after this Vikings defense. And I thought it was really significant. It's funny in our group chat.

Derek Klassen and I at the exact same time had the same stats about Jordan Love against the Blitz before and after bye week. Before the bye week, Love was 33rd in the NFL in success rate against the Blitz. He was 34th in the EPA per dropback. Negative .44 EPA per dropback against the Blitz. So basically negative half a point every time he got blitzed before their bye week. He was only above Deshaun Watson.

And this is not in my head how I picture love in the Packers offense. And then you look after the bye week. 0.33 APA for drop back against the Blitz. First in the NFL. Would rank first if it was the whole season. Success rate is fifth at 52%. Lamar, by the way, for the entire season is at 57% against the Blitz, which is crazy.

Which is like one of the highest numbers I can remember, which just speaks to what Lamar is doing. Oh yeah. We didn't even talk about Lamar, by the way, in our Ravens breakdown game. Oh yeah. Lamar put on MVP performance. We should also talk about that too. But yeah, yeah. He's really good guys. Yeah.

He pushes it past the sticks on third down. It's just a fun style matchup. It's just a defense that makes you play like a big quarterback. And Jordan Love's like, okay, Kobe. That's what he's going to do every single snap. And then also the other thing, too, I looked at. There's two other things. I dove so deep into this game. I was so excited. Vikings versus play action. Very boom bust. Give up.

Top six in explosive passes against play action. Packers run a ton of play action, one of the highest rates in the NFL. Vikings versus receiver runs. Packers with Jane Reed run more receiver runs than anybody. They've got more explosive runs off receiver runs than anybody. Twice as many as the number two team. Vikings.

31st in the NFL against receiver runs, 20% explosive play rate against receiver runs. So because, you know, cause they just, they're so fast and they just go every which way and they really key in. So that's the thing that the Vikings make you do. You have to trust your change-ups.

All right, we're going to run this. It might go negative. Okay, we got it. We got it. Okay, good, good, good. Okay, reverse work there. Okay, we're going to run this play action. We got to turn her back. Okay, okay, okay, it worked there. So I just think the Packers, we use this term, have natural answers against this Vikings defense. Also have a prediction.

Look for a little Luke Musgrave down the seam. Luke Musgrave seam ball. That's my prediction for this game. Something down the middle. Luke Musgrave. So just want to throw that one out there. Going on the other side of the ball. Also a very fun matchup. You got the Vikings offense Packers defense. You hinted at some of it. But this Packers defense, though, has been quite good since their bye week.

um they have been top four or five in every metric i look at their third and yards per play allowed um third and e paper drop back allowed their fourth and weighted dvoa uh fourth and e paper play allowed very very good well playing defense um i know you kind of hinted at this side of the ball any other kind of thoughts here um you're talking more about the run game and stuff but anything the packers can kind of throw out this vikings offense that really can hit chunk plays on anybody man i you might you might just have to blitz this week um

Just force Sam Darnold into doing something maybe he doesn't want to do to speed up his process a little bit because just to keep it honest, it's not like the Packers have any cornerbacks without Jair Alexander that are going to be able to run with Jefferson and Addison. I think that's been a real problem point for them. And it's something that concerns me.

you know, moving forward in the playoffs because that's just a big game changer for them. I don't really understand that they're just keeping him on ice like until he gets healthy or now that they've clinched a spot because he has been like, he hasn't been someone who's played a whole lot of football over the past couple of seasons. So maybe they're just being, you know,

they're being safe with this and not trying to get them hurt. But man, if he's not out there for, for this game, that's, that's a big problem point. And if he's not out there moving forward, that's a big problem point because the rackets are cornerback room isn't, isn't necessarily great. So, yeah, I, I do think the Packers maybe win this one closely, but I,

So that's the point where they're going to have to figure out some way that they can force negative plays in the passing game. And maybe you have to take that risk and just blitz and try to blow it all up to get there. Yeah, it was so interesting to me the first time these teams played. I was like, Jeff Halfley, defense coordinator for the Packers, is a cover three guy.

And I was like, you're going to go cover three against Justin Jefferson. And would you know, they got treaded when they did it. And as I got a touchdown, Jefferson got a touchdown, both against single high, both against single coverage on the outside, you know, kind of want to shy away from that. And this is what's been really interesting to me with the Packers. And I kind of talked about this before, but they have now evolved from into a cover two team as their changeup.

Since their bye week, they have run cover two at the highest rate in the NFL. It's at 28%. They were 15% before the bye week, which is like middle of the pack. So they run cover three, cover two, cover three, cover two. And they just switch back and forth between the two. And they hide it really well. McKinney does a really good job of hiding it. They do some invert stuff.

You could see Geno Smith get caught a couple times against it. And that to me is interesting because that's what you usually play against Justin Jefferson. You want to cloud his side. You do not want to single up Justin Jefferson. So it's kind of a.

All right, well, Packers actually have a better answer than they did the first time around, but you still have to do it. You know, you still have to guard Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and TJ Hawkinson, which is the other thing about this cover two kind of defense that, again, I told you guys, dove deep into this stuff. I kept pulling out a thread and I was like, oh, that's interesting. The Packers defense, actually really good against number two receivers. They're sixth in DVOA against receiver twos. Okay, what about tight ends?

18th in DVOA against tight ends, first in targets per game, seventh in yards allowed per game to tight ends, 31st in success rate allowed to tight ends, 62% success rate allowed to tight end targets. Hawkinson is pretty dang good. All right. Where does Sam Darnold throw the ball against cover two? Who does he target? I looked at the target share. Wouldn't you know, Justin Jefferson, number one, 23%.

TJ Hawkinson, number two, 22.5%. Addison's all the way down at 13%.

So look for some TJ Hawkinson targets this game. And that's even more interesting to me. I told you guys, I keep pulling up this thread. Edgerton Cooper is back for the Packers and has been a total needle mover for this defense at linebacker. That matters because he's going to be garden linebackers. So our garden tight ends. So it's just the Packers have found better answers. I don't think they're an elite defense, even if the numbers are pointing to top five, top six, but they're above average to good.

which is different than when I viewed them before their bi-week, which is like average-ish. So stuff to build on. This is a great matchup for them. I think it's just going to be a really, really interesting one. And then last stat, I'm so sorry. Sorry, Charles. I just took up all this time. But

Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and TJ Hawkinson, when they're on the field, the Vikings throw the ball 80% of the time. Okay? 80% of the time they throw the ball. They're a truck first team. They have a third highest success rate, explosive play rate, their first knee paper play in the NFL when those three are healthy and on the field at the same time.

So, again, you've got a fully weaponized offense. Offensive line's a little leaky for the Vikings going against a Packers defense playing their best ball. Very, very excited for this game. If you guys couldn't tell for that full depth of breakdown right there. You already kind of hinted at it. Vikings are one point underdogs. Are you going with the Packers here? Yeah, I'm going to roll with the Packers. I think it's going to be a really close game. I think they seem to be pretty even right now. But I think the Packers are a little bit more stable on offense and it's going to give them the edge.

I think of these two teams as two true contenders. Wrote about it last week. Two of the top five teams remaining. Remaining. Playoffs haven't even started. I am going with the Packers here, even if it is in Minnesota and everything. But I think this game's going to be awesome. I'm very excited to watch it. But I'm going with the Packers. But do really like where the Vikings are at right now. My last note is Carl Sheffers. He's the officiating crew for this game. Top five in defensive pass interference is called. Number two in defensive holding is called. So...

Look for maybe some Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, DPI huntings in this game. Make the Mr. Look at me ref. Here we go. He is a look at me ref, isn't he? But this is an afternoon game. We don't have to worry about that.

national TV game. We'll get refs call rates in national TV games. It's pretty funny to look at. Look at the jump numbers for everybody, especially if your last name ends with Hockley. Yeah, that usually you get a little jump numbers, jump penalty calls when it's a national TV game. But we are going to take our last break and then we'll come back with Falcons commanders and our dual slop watch this week.

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All right, we are back with our last deep dive. A game that got a lot juicier after this last week.

Falcons at Commanders. Commanders are four-point home favorites going against Michael Penix Jr., who is in the playoff hunt. Just gets dropped right in there. Yeah, you're going to be in the playoff QB soon. All right, Charles. What are you watching in this game? What are you checking out about your glorious Atlanta Falcons trying to rise up against the Commanders? Dude, I don't even know. I don't even know. I know historically this is just... This is a poison pill for Atlanta because...

I'm expecting Jayden Daniels to run for like 150 yards in this game. Like, I could be off the Falcons pass rush a lot. I've had this in my brain since before the season started. I know the Falcons, their pass rush is a lot better than it was to start the season. Like, I thought it might have just been like,

you know, kind of fake nonsense after they got out there by, um, where maybe you, you, you figure out some stuff, but no, like Arnold, Ebiketti's playing a lot better recently. Um, he's actually put in some good, uh, tape out there. Yes. Uh, Kate, Kate Nellis has been a monster on blitzes recently. So they, they at least have some idea. Yeah. I mean, I'm, I'm, I'm glad it took them. Well, like 30 games to realize she needs to be moving forward, not backwards. Like, like what, what, what,

He's a rep guys too. Yeah. Yeah. That is true. That is true. But he's a Sam, like all of his best reps were like the closest he was to the ball, the better he was, the further away he was, the worse it looked. So I don't know why it took so long for them to actually just stick to a plan for him. But yeah,

Lo and behold, they have a semblance of a pass rush. So, you know, maybe they can get after Jaden Daniels a little bit. I'm sure he's still going to make some plays with his legs and be able to get the ball out to, you know, some of his skilled players that have had success recently. I think he and Terry McLaurin are really having some cool moments right now where they're on the same page and showing like that dynamic where they can actually be like a

a quarterback wide receiver that stands tall for the next couple of years. So that'll be tough for them. But obviously the story here is, is panics. And they, they, they did dust off some, a lot more play actions. Look, look, some they did last week. I think they're at like 23% play action usage for the game, which is way higher, significantly higher percent before the game. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah, for a single game, that was way higher than any usage they had up to this point, which just goes to show what the actual problem was in terms of holding back some of the schematic stuff on the offense, which we already knew. And luckily for Panics, this isn't the toughest test. I think the Commander's defense is definitely playing better than at the start of the season. They're not just a total pushover anymore, but...

You know, it's not going to get, you know, like where the Ravens are now or where the Vikings have been or, you know, the Broncos or, you know, some of the other top teams that we've talked about. So it's doable. It's doable. I want to see if they can continue to run the ball. Yeah.

in the manner they did last week. Dijon Robinson's having an insane year, you know, in a year where Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley have, you know, taken the mantle and rightfully so. Dijon Robinson's also having an insane season of his own. So, you know, you're going to need to lean on that run game with him and Altair. See if he can call some more play action shots. And then just like last week, Panics don't make any mistakes, which I don't think he made any

you know, terrible mistakes. Maybe that would, that would, you know, cause you to have concern about this week. The only interception you had was the Kyle pitch drop who apparently has, you know, Kyle pits has the entire world just mad at him for, for that play. You know, you would think that he killed someone's like daughter, like their child, the way that people are talking about him on the internet right now. But I think Arthur Smith got fired again after that. Yes. Yes. Seriously. Seriously.

You know, I don't know. The Kyle Pitts stuff is interesting to me because I feel we are all watching him. He's clearly physically not the same guy he was a couple of years ago. And that's to me like where I struggle, like just piling on someone where it's like, damn, man, like, all right, you're definitely 75% of what he was. Yeah, right, right. So I kind of struggle with that. But still, you should probably catch the ball. So I don't know. Just look clean.

I told myself last week I wasn't going to get invested in winning these games, but then the Bucs lost to Dallas. So now I'm like, damn, if you can just get to the playoffs, that would be great. Just get – dude, if you win this week and the Panthers beat the Bucs, which is possible, certainly possible, you're in for the first time since 2017. You know? See, the thing that you –

Dude, right? And he's rebuilt Texas at this point. It's pretty crazy. I just don't want to end up

like not getting to the playoffs before the jets do, because you're next up on the list of like teams who haven't been to the playoffs in so-and-so administration. Let's let's just, you know, nip that in the bud. You don't want to be on this list. And then we can actually start caring about winning these games next year. But for this week, just don't look like a joke, man. Just don't look like a joke. Not off the holiday. Come on now. Yeah.

It's funny. It's, uh, I love that. That's all you're asking. You're like, just don't embarrass me. Just don't embarrass me. That's it. I know. Just don't embarrass me. Uh,

Whew, where to go from there? No, I mean, the Falcons, I mean, both of these teams could exercise some demons, I think. Just obviously the commanders are roaring to the playoffs and everything. But no, the Falcons definitely could. And making such a big decision, switching quarterbacks and just going like, no, see, it was the right decision will help you feel a lot better, even if you don't pull off the win in this week, which...

Could unravel a whole lot of things. But I do want to talk about, you mentioned it, the commander's defense has improved. And you feel it a little bit. They haven't played the toughest slate of offense. But even against better offenses, it's not a total pushover. They're still a little iffy against the run. But against the pass, they've been much, much better. And that's some of it has been they've moved Mike Sanestrell from nickel to outside. And now since that was in week eight, they did that.

They're second in dropback success rate since they made that move. So since week eight, they were 24th in weeks one through seven. And explosive pass rate, they went from 30%.

31st for the first seven weeks to now 17th from the last eight weeks, which I just think is interesting because for a while I've just been going like, yeah, Commander's defense batted everything. Attack Bobby Wagner, attack this. Okay, their defensive front's pretty good, but now they're actually like, okay, they can hang in here. They're 14th in weighted DVOA. They get some pressure. Deron Payne, Johnny Newton, Frankie Louvu, Jonathan Allen finally looks like he's playing again. We talked about that last week, but now it looks like he is playing. But I did mention that

They're not great defending the run going against Bijon and this Falcons run offense who are first and running back rushing success rate going against commanders defense. That's middle of the pack defending the run. Overall, they're bottom. But if you just look through from week eight onwards, which I'm kind of going to look at for this, what I am curious, this is my little schematic thing with this.

So this just seems like the Falcons as a whole, where it's just like they have a good idea and it lasts two weeks and then they're like, move on to the next thing. Like Kirk Cousins. But after their bye week, they started doing a bunch of two tight end stuff. So they had their bye week.

They go 25 plays, 12 personnel against the Vikings, 33 plays, 12 personnel against the Raiders. It's like, okay, that's interesting. New little wrinkle of your offense. Then last week, three plays using it. And so it's like, are you guys just not using it now? Or was I looked at injuries? I was like, okay, so you guys are just gone with it now. But I want to see if they get back into that because the commanders like to play nickel. That's what Dan Quinn loves to do. Just based out of nickel. And they're not that good defending the run when they, when offenses get with their big bodies. So yeah,

that's something the Falcons could just easily do and make Penix's life a lot easier. I'm curious because pressure kind of unraveled Penix in college. You know, he's not great when he gets moved off the launch point, but if he can just two and a half seconds to let it go, he's really good. Like we saw last week. So, you know, maybe some pressure gets there. You got to kind of make his life a little bit easier in that aspect. So that's where I'm going to be checking out for that other side.

Yeah, Falcons defense is a little bit improved, but I think this is gonna be a really good game for Jane Daniels to kind of nickel and dime and run around a little bit like you said like I think like if they go tempo the Falcons run a lot a cover three like that's kind of like they're like panic call and

well what the commanders do when they get that is that's the go balls to terry mcclellan so all right we get terry against non-aj terrell then we're go tempo we get single high or boom touchdown like i already can picture that in my head so i i do think that uh this uh this falcons defense actually tackles pretty well underneath but i just think the commanders have a lot of nice natural answers they can run the ball

Daniels can scramble. Falcons are okay against the scramble, but he can scramble. He can attack underneath. So I think they have some natural answers where it's not going to really hinder them at all. This game, like I mentioned before, commanders are four point favorites at home. All right. Who are you leaning in here? Part of it here.

Commanders. I'm also going Commanders here. Yeah, I just think Jaden Daniels is able to make enough plays that just kind of kill you at the end, whether it's like a third down scrambles or a go ball where maybe you can get them on first and second down, but the plays where his talent gets to shine and things can be tough for the defense.

Yeah. Well, and that actually, thank you for bringing that up. That's my last little stat on this was third downs are going to be huge in this game for that side of the ball. Commanders are so good at it because like we said, Daniel's running. They're very aggressive on fourth down. So he's willing to take an underneath throw on third and 10 to get seven because then they'll go for it on fourth and three. Commanders are 28th third down defense. Commanders are, or I'm sorry, Falcons are 28th and third down defense. Commanders are sixth down.

And third down conversion rate on offense and have the sixth shortest distance to go on third down. So, yeah, for the Falcons, it's like, all right, first down as hard as possible because we're not going to win on third down. So I think that's where it's going to go. But I'm also going with the commanders here and I'm also going to go with the cover. I think they'll win by a touchdown. All right. Now, because it's week 17 and because that's how it kind of goes, we just did deep dives. But we're going to get into a dual slop watch for week 17.

Warning, this is a slop watch. I'll wake you up. All right, this one was for me because I just found a stat. The first one, slop watch, we have Cowboys and Eagles. Eagles are almost a touchdown favorite, six and a half. But really, I just want to focus on the Cowboys defense, Eagles offense. Joan Hurts did not practice, has his concussion.

Kenny Pickett going against the Cowboys defense and Micah Parsons has me a little antsy, has me a little apprehensive. I want to bring up a couple stats, though, before I jump it to you was Micah Parsons since his return in week 10.

The Cowboys defense are third in EPA for drop back allowed. They are tied for second in QB pressures. They have 109 quarterback pressures since week 10, their fifth and pressure rate on third down their first and pressure rate 51% pressure rate on third and fourth down since Micah Parsons has returned first in EPA per drop back on third and fourth down. They have allowed a quarterback rating. I'm going to use an old school rating.

Boomer stat here. Just old school quarterback rating. 46.7 is the quarterback rating against the Cowboys on third and fourth down since Parsons has returned. Basically just turning every quarterback into like Bucks Jeff Garcia. Wow, that's a reference no one will remember. But man, Hurts has the longest time to throw, but it looks like he might not be playing. But Pickett's not great against pressure either. So I just wanted to kind of highlight this as

Could get weird. This could be a weird one, especially a divisional matchup and everything. So this is my slop watch for the week. Anything to add for this game, Charles? No, if Jalen Hurst doesn't play,

I think the Cowboys could potentially win this. Right. Which is, you know, I'm not looking forward to watching Kenny Pickett against where his defense is right now, unless you're into just like sadism and sick stuff like that. Or they want to run it 64 times. Yeah. Please, just run it.

Do you want to see chalk outlines of Kenny Pickett on the 50-yard line? I don't think. I think that's kind of sicko behavior, to be honest with you. But that's why it's a stopwatch. I don't really have too much out of that. Dallas defense, they're going to need to show up if they want any prayer of winning this game. I know they've already been eliminated from the playoffs, but still, it's fun to just beat up on your division rivals whenever you get the chance. Yeah.

Yeah, you're going to need Michael Parsons to do his best impression, his best Lawrence Taylor impression, because I don't know if Cooper Rush has the goods to get past his Eagles defense.

Not quite sure. That's where my brain's at. You said Lawrence Taylor and I was like, oh yeah, Belichick might be the Packers head coach next year. It's like, oh yeah, he's at North Carolina right now. And Mike McCarthy. And they're already dropping hints that Mike McCarthy might be returning and Doug Peterson might. What's going on with the Jaguars, by the way? It's like, are they just trying to act like they're the Jaguars?

Are they just trying to make us all forget that we get amnesia? Which, actually, most of the public might. But I'm not. No, no. What are you guys doing down there? Because you can't run this back. You cannot do it. No, but... Yeah, no, this is a slop watch. But, of course, the Eagles' defense is very good. Cowboys' offense is...

Run game's been great, actually, lately. So, you know, they might have some answers there. Keep it close. I think this game's just going to be a little... I'm feeling wonkiness in this. Can we maybe see some Tanner McKee for the Eagles, please?

Maybe see him out there. Get the old Stanford gunslinger with his funky motion out there. All right. Our other game for the dual swap watch divisional matchup. You hinted at this one. We have Panthers at Bucks. Bucks are eight point favorites. This is really just Panthers run offense versus the Bucks run defense. Bucks are top three. They're second in early down rushing success rate allowed. Of course, that's the Vita Vea stat.

Six in the explosive runs allowed ninth and rushing DVO way. Panthers are essentially top 10 and rushing stats, especially if you look at lately eighth and rush early down success rate 15th and DVO way. But I actually think there's a little delay there. I think they're going to be improving as the season goes along.

But this one is just for... It's interesting because the Bucs need this. And the Panthers have been very frisky lately, even when they've been losing or winning against the Cardinals last week. I just wanted to highlight this as that it could be... That's a pretty fun little mini-Hoss fight. Undercard Hoss fight of the Panthers' offense and Bucs' defense. Anything on this game, Charles, for the wrap-up slop watch? It's a huge game for the Bucs who, you know, they kind of falconed it last week and they blew their...

They don't own their playoff destiny anymore. Their destiny, yeah. After losing last week. They botched their destiny. They botched their destiny, man. After the Falcons botched their destiny. So maybe we need to get... You take it.

Right. Maybe we should get rid of the NFC South. Or just go to straight top seven teams from each conference and make the playoffs. No ifs, ands, or buts about it. Just get rid of the division winner tie-ins. Because I feel like if the Lions go 14-3, isn't it kind of sick that they would have to go to Atlanta for a playoff game? I don't know. I don't know.

It feels a little wrong to me. But with this game, it's only interesting really because of the seeding and the hospital, like you said. If the Buccaneers lose this game and the Falcons manage to win against the Commanders, that's the last division race inside the NFC West needs to be.

I cleared up. So there, there's some stakes. People are really, really, really, really in on this Bryce Young thing a lot more than I thought that even I was at start. I was like, Oh, you know, look, he's, he's making some throws, but like, I think people convince themselves that he's like actually like a top 10 ish quarterback or fringe top 10 quarterback, but we're working now. Right. That's why I'm here.

It's definitely not just people kind of reacting to like training wheels. They didn't know they have in their head because he had been quite literally one of the worst quarterbacks to ever step foot on the NFL field. And the fact that he is functional and playable now, I think people have taken it a little bit too far, but still another big chance to kind of keep adding good film and good tape this week for him. If they can get a win over Tampa Bay.

And he's shown, he's shown that he can embrace young is that he can find some answers against the blitz, which actually was like, when I was watching that Cardinals game, I was like, stop blitzing them because you're just making it easy. And now he goes against Todd Bowles. So it's another blitz happy team that he can maybe find. And he'll probably get some third and long say yes to face because maybe that, you know, that run defense steps up for the bucks.

Um, yeah, no, I, I do think people are going to exaggerate with it, especially when I look at his stats and it looks like Desmond Ritter from 2023 and you know, they're both in year two and I'm just trying to figure out where we're going here with it, but he has been playable. It's not the worst thing I've ever seen. You know, it's actually like a functional offense and they're doing a nice job. There's still some pieces away, but I enjoy the offensive line. I enjoy Chuba Hubbard, enjoy what's going on with that passing game. Tommy Tremble.

You're having a nice little year, you know, enjoying what's going on in Carolina. But yeah, they're a few steps away and everything. But I think this will be a pretty fun matchup. All right. That's it for our deep dives, our slop watch, all that fun stuff. We're going to get to a mailbag question right now. Remember, if you submit a review on Apple podcasts, you jump to the front of the line for our mailbag questions. That's where this one is from. Or you can send an email to football301mailbag at yahoosports.com.

You still might be up there in the line. I'm not saying that you just get cut off completely, so keep sending those in, but also just rate us five stars on Apple. That'd be really nice. But getting to one of those reviews and one of those questions, I really like this one. This was from Matt Marquart. I believe I got that. If motion tells the offense whether coverage is man or zone, why don't teams use motion on every play? If it's so simple to incorporate, why doesn't every team do it?

All right. Well, I'll get a few things here. There's different types of motion. First off, receiver short motion, tight end cross motion. There's jet motion. There's shifts, which is a guy moves and then there's motion and then there's motion at the snap. All these things are different. It's not a magic wand thing, but it does make life easier, especially in the past game, kind of figure out some things. It's not always defenses have gotten really good defending motion. So I'll start there.

It's not as simple as a guy travels. Oh, it's man coverage or a guy travels. Oh, it's zone coverage. Defenses have gotten good at disguising that. Defenses have match rules where a guy will travel sometimes depending on passing strength. It's a balance. Why you don't want to motion

Is it changes the picture on the offensive line and the quarterback. So they have in their head have to figure out what that final look is going to be. If you're static, it's a lot easier. Just go, okay, you're here. You're here. All right, that defender's moving. Okay, that's weird because we're static. I know you're moving. If we're moving on offense and the defense is moving, it's just a lot to kind of compute.

for the quarterback. It can also make protections a little weaker because you can't use things like cadence. You can't let the quarterback really kind of get to things. This is the big thing happening in the split in the NFL right now between Shanahan offenses and non Shanahan offenses. And then the hybrid guys like McVay, the Packers with LaFleur and letting their quarterbacks kind of handle a little bit. Or you got the Dolphins, you got the 49ers where the quarterback doesn't handle any of it.

it is all that motion takes time.

So you have to get the cadence going. You have to get going on it. If you're static, you can let the quarterback kind of be the sheriff and point everything out. That's why the Bengals don't use motion. And I know Bengals fans hate it, but Joe Burrows is going to want this for the rest of his life. He's going to point everything out and not motion. So that's just the give and take of why you don't want to use motion. It can just make things a little hard on the picture. Defenses can game it up a little bit if they're really keyed in on it. And it can kind of limit your protections and your cadence, kind of some of the other tools you can use on offense. But yeah, that's...

That's motion, but it does really help you out and kind of changing the picture on the defense. If you use it correctly and it can kind of change the angles of attack, change guys at the snap of the ball to get into the routes and everything, which we see kind of weekly right now.

Any thoughts on motion, Chuck, or as a defensive tackle, where you're just like, oh, there's that guy running across my face. That's how I used to look at it for sure. If a wide receiver is running across, bro, that ain't got shit to do with me. Tight end, my favorite little tip. You just saw the quarterback move his foot, and you're just like, yep, that's it. I forget what it's called, but the Titans, not Titans, the Falcons, they do this motion all the time with Charlie Warner.

The tight end they just signed where he motions into the middle of the offensive line and hits someone. Those are the ones I used to pay attention to. The other ones... Wiped out from the side, yeah. Or if we're changing the strength on a running play, yeah, I'm paying attention to that. But the other ones, not so much. The idea of time is something that I've thought about a lot, especially over the past couple of years where...

We've seen all the influx of Shanahan guys, but I think the one that I thought about it the most was when it was covering the Chiefs-Dolphins playoff game. And I thought that Tua actually gave a really good answer when I asked him about, like, you guys are...

you guys have so many plays where you're just about to get a delay of game and when you're not like you're getting the ball off in one second and this happened to them when they played the eagles that year and the chiefs but like they're getting the ball off in one second and just getting rocks like after the snap like they have no like no answers for for you know for what's happening and then

I thought that Tua had a good answer for that, talking about the Chiefs blitzes and how they were able to get them back in that playoff game. He said, quote,

Am I hearing the right information? We're getting out, but we have two motions that we have to use. So it's maybe nine seconds from the clock. We're motioning. It's about five seconds left on the clock. We don't have time to change. Now we've got to play and we've got to throw where our hots would be, which is exactly where they pressured. Chiefs coordinator Steve Sacchanello had a great plan, which is what happens. If you're going to motion every single play, you're probably going to get to a point where

a handful of times a game where you're at the clock, right? You're about to get a delay of game. As soon as you snap it, if you don't have time to change anything and the defense knows that you don't have time to change anything, that's how you can get, you know, some like interceptions underneath that we see or sacks instant pressures where quarterbacks don't have time to make a change or to protect themselves from danger. So that's why you can't motion every play. And also there's just like,

It's just a repetition thing. You know, if a defense were to see emotion every single time they went out there, you would lose effectiveness of it and they would have rules on how to beat it, you know, even better than they are. It's like an RPG. Right. Like, it's effective. It's effective. And then the opponent gets used to it. And sometimes it's super effective, you know? Like, that's what it is. But it loses effectiveness the more you use it. It's just kind of how it goes. It's why you can't throw the ball every time. But no, the...

The protection stuff and what you're talking about, the two of stuff, that's exactly it. Because I've never been in a Shanahan office. I know it well. But how I've been taught college and then NFL and then also with my dad's stuff is that the quarterback in the center figured it all out.

They, because they use so much motion, the Shannon offenses, they just take it away from the quarterback because they said that ruins the rhythm of everything. So we, we, everything that we design, everything is going to be built in. Your answers are all built in the hots and everything. While the other way of thinking is, okay, quarterback stops everything. Oh, I'm going to signal a hot. I'm going to signal a side adjust. I'm going to change the play. And,

chaining offenses can do a little of this but it's just it's just different tools that you can use to kind of figure this all out um no upset that's a very good point to bring up with the the two answer yeah that's motion it's good and bad sometimes it's neither but oh you said if they get used to all the motion to watch shane and offenses sometimes when they just don't use it and they just snap on the quick sometimes their best plays are that because the defense is

don't worry, they're going to motion. We got time to get set. All right, where are they at? Oh, shoot. Oh, you know, and also they have to defend like, yeah. So sometimes you change it up on them and you can find some good answers. I said back in 2016, I remember one of the Falcons best plays was when they would just run up to the line and, you know, throw a screen like Julio or Taylor Gabriel. And those were some of their, their most explosive plays. They did. They also had a really high pressure rate that season, which I think probably goes back to, you know, some of the underlying issues. Yeah.

Yeah. And they, the biggest signing for that team was Alex Mack. I mean, uh, uh, cause I remember that 2015 center, I'm forgetting his name right now. It's so bad. Yes. Really nice guy.

He was so bad that it was like it crippled the whole offense. I mean, it really did. And then they get Alex Mack and it's like, wow, this is great. You know, you have to have a really smart center to do that, though. But sorry, I know this is just extending all this, but this is what they had to do. They had to give Matt Ryan controls. This is what LaFleur had to do with Rogers and give and give him controls of the offense. He had a hybrid in a little bit. And guess what? They were really good.

All right. Now we're closing it out today. That was our week 17 preview. Charles and I will be back on Sunday with the fifth quarter to recap these Sunday games, the weekend games. I should say I am Nate Tice. You can find me at Nate underscore Tice on Twitter or Nate Tice on blue sky. Charles, where can they find you on social media? Forverts, Twitter, blue sky, you know, the deal.

You know the deal. Exactly. Like I said before, subscribe to us, follow us, rate us five stars. If not five stars, just yell at us. It's the holiday season. Don't yell. That's just five stars or nothing. Watch us on YouTube. I won't see it.

Yeah, I've been getting pretty good at ignoring everything. Watch us on YouTube as well. The Yahoo Sports YouTube channel. Check out all our content. Plenty of great stuff on there. Thanks to Brent and Stone behind the scenes. Enjoy your weekend. Thank you all for listening. See you guys on Sunday.

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