Europe Tries to Restart Iran Diplomacy
12:22 Share

If you went on a road trip and you didn't stop for a Big Mac or drop a crispy fry between the car seats or use your McDonald's bag as a placemat, then that wasn't a road trip. It was just a really long drive. Ba-da-ba-ba-ba. At participating McDonald's.

President Trump gives himself two weeks to decide whether to join Israel in attacking Iran. We'll look at Europe's push to avoid that outcome and restart diplomatic talks. European countries do have a diplomatic role to play here, but ultimately these are negotiations between Tehran and the U.S. And I think for that reason we might see negotiations

Iranian officials be willing to offer tighter restrictions on the country's nuclear program. Plus, an appeals court lets the president retain control of California National Guard troops, and China flexes its chokehold on rare earth magnets. It's Friday, June 20th. I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal, and here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.

Fighting between Israel and Iran has entered its second week. The two sides are continuing to trade attacks, but attention is increasingly focused on whether the U.S. will enter the conflict with direct strikes on Iran. Yesterday afternoon, White House Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt read a statement from President Trump spelling out how he is viewing that possibility.

And I quote, based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks. The Journal reported yesterday that Trump has approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving a final order to see if Tehran would abandon its nuclear program.

Well, we could get more clarity on that today when Iranian officials are due to meet with European foreign ministers in Switzerland. And joining us now with more on Europe's efforts to push dialogue as well as a look at what other major players are saying about this developing war, I'm joined by Journal foreign correspondent Suna Rasmussen. Suna, clarify for us, just starting with these meetings occurring in Switzerland today, what we understand Europe as trying to do in the midst of this conflict.

European diplomats are coming a little bit late to the party here, but what they want to do now is to get Tehran to offer what they call a substantial and durable scaling back of its nuclear program. That is in contrast to the American goal of zero enrichment, which is something the Iranians historically have categorically denied.

What they also want to do is combine a curb on his nuclear program with restrictions on Iran's ballistic missile program. That's another thing that Tehran historically has refused to do. They've always insisted on negotiating exclusively on the nuclear program. So there is still a bit of daylight here between European and U.S. goals with these talks.

So Europe may be potentially willing to accept sort of different nuclear limits from Iran than the U.S. would, though ultimately it's Washington that holds most of the cards here, right, from Tehran's point of view. Yeah, and I think it's questionable what the European countries can actually offer Iran in this current situation. I mean, historically in nuclear negotiations with Iran—

Europe and the U.S., the main thing they could offer Iran was sanctions relief. Now the main thing on the table is a halt to these strikes against Tehran. And Iran would also like to avoid the U.S. joining in the war. But ultimately, these are negotiations between Tehran and the U.S. And I think for that reason, we might see Iranian officials be willing to offer tighter restrictions on the country's nuclear program than they traditionally have been willing to.

Soon, two other countries we don't really have time to get into here, but which could play a role, are Russia and China. Russia this morning, via the Kremlin spokesman, warning against regime change in Iran, but not actually elaborating on what actions the country could take should that occur.

China, another X factor, a country very reliant on Iranian crude oil, though Xi Jinping has mostly avoided taking sides in the conflict besides saying that he opposes actions that infringe on another country's sovereignty. It seems the possibility of regime change very much in the air right now. And it's a topic you've written about recently, speaking to experts about who might stand to benefit. Were there to be a shakeup in Iranian leadership? What did you learn?

So it's important to understand that the Iranian leadership is like a collection of different power centers inside the country. They all answer to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but it's not a one-person rule. And in this fragmented country, the single most powerful actor is the Revolutionary Guard. The Revolutionary Guard is an elite military unit, which over the years has

become very embedded both in Iranian security affairs, but also political affairs and the economic system. And they sort of run this expansive economic empire.

All that means that if the Supreme Leader were to be toppled, the most likely actor to come in and either take power or dictate who the new ruler is, the Revolutionary Guard or the IRGC. That seems like a prospect that would be of great concern for the U.S. in particular, if their actions here, potentially getting involved in the coming days or weeks, lead to just such an outcome.

Depending on which way the Revolutionary Guard goes, the Revolutionary Guard is not an ideological monolith. But there is a younger part of the Guard, people who have come of age in the wars in Syria, in Iraq, and also in Yemen, who are more hardline, who are more hawkish against Israel, and who actually, to some extent, blame the leadership for not doing

being more hardline against, for example, Israel and think that if Iran had had a more militant approach to Israel, maybe they could have staved off the current war. And if there is a dramatic, abrupt shakeup in Iran, people I speak to think that it's likely that sort of the more hardline elements of the IRGC could become dominant. And then we could probably see a more radical and even more anti-Israeli Iran emerge. Fascinating. I've been joined by journal foreign correspondent Suna Rasmussen. Suna, thank you so much. You're welcome, Luke. Thank you.

Back in the U.S., a federal court has handed President Trump a key legal victory, letting him retain control over the California National Guard. That's after the president had federalized some 4,000 guard members earlier this month to respond to protests in Los Angeles over immigration raids. California could seek review by a larger Ninth Circuit panel or the Supreme Court.

And TikTok is getting another 90-day reprieve. President Trump has extended the deadline for the Chinese-owned app to be sold or shut down, deferring enforcement of a 2024 law passed under President Biden. The law was upheld by the Supreme Court in January over national security concerns tied to TikTok's parent company ByteDance.

The Trump administration says it will work over the next three months to close a deal ensuring American user data on TikTok is, quote, safe and secure. Coming up, China flexes its chokehold on rare earth magnets and is now the right time to sell your good cutlery. We've got more on the soaring price of silver and other stories after the break.

Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. Now, I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited premium wireless for $15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun if we made $15 bills. But it turns out...

That's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a try at mintmobile.com slash switch. Uprunt payment of $45 for three-month plan equivalent to $15 per month required. New customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes if network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com. Chinese exports of rare earth magnets plummeted by 74% in May from a year earlier after Beijing imposed controls on their overseas sale.

The curbs on those magnets, which are used in everything from EVs to jet fighters, have become a central part of trade tensions between the U.S. and China in recent months, as reporter Hannah Miao explains. So China in early April started requiring licenses for the exports of certain rare earth metals and products, including certain magnets.

And when the U.S. and China came to a trade truce in mid-May, it was expected that there would be an easing of controls for these exports so that companies could again continue to get the exports from China that they needed of rare earth magnets.

And what this data show are clearly that easing did not happen. In fact, there was a further tightening of exports from China of these crucial products. And that tension is what brought the U.S. and China back together in London earlier this month to try to rehash out the trade truce. And we're still waiting to see how that goes.

While those trade tensions have threatened to worsen an economic slump in China, but the country's second largest shopping event is suggesting otherwise, with the 618 shopping festival setting a new record by racking up more than $100 billion in online sales. That comes after Beijing implemented subsidies for smartphones and household appliances, as well as a further discount for orders on e-commerce platforms in order to boost consumption.

Well, there's a very different story playing out in the United Kingdom, where shoppers drew back on spending amidst pessimism that the economy is slowing.

Retail sales were 2.7 percent lower in the month of May. Bad news for a government relying on growth in order to fuel planned spending increases without resorting to further tax hikes. It also complicates matters for the Bank of England, which just yesterday opted not to cut interest rates in the face of increasing global uncertainty, even as three policymakers argued for a rate cut amid rising unemployment.

And with jittery investors propping up gold prices recently, don't sleep on silver. Prices for the precious metal have surged nearly as much as gold this year, up 27 percent to the highest level seen in more than a decade. The rally is spurring a rise in silver sellers who are flocking to coin shops, metal dealers and jewelers in order to cash in on the demand.

Surging silver prices are getting an extra jolt from strong industrial demand, with about 80% coming from manufacturing, especially among solar panel makers. And that's it for What's News for this Friday morning. Today's show was produced by Pierce Lynch and Kate Bullivant. Our supervising producer was Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Luke Vargas for The Wall Street Journal. We will be back tonight with a new show. Otherwise, have a great weekend, and thanks for listening. ♪