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cover of episode The 3.5% Protest Rule That Could Bring Down Trump

The 3.5% Protest Rule That Could Bring Down Trump

2025/6/15
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E
Erica Chenoweth
J
Jon Favreau
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Jon Favreau: 我一直苦于没有时间和空间来讨论如何有效地反击特朗普的政策。我认为我们对政治的反击方式仍然基于传统的政治运作，但可能需要一套新的策略来应对当前的现实。Erica Chenoweth的研究让我看到了摆脱困境的现实路径，她的研究表明非暴力抗议比武装冲突更容易成功，当一个非暴力抗议运动能够动员至少3.5%的人口参与时，它就能成功地带来社会或政治变革。在美国，这意味着需要动员大约1200万美国人参与持续的非暴力抗议运动。 Erica Chenoweth: 我研究的是人们如何以最小的伤害来对抗威权主义，并创造新的、更好的事物。我的研究表明，依靠人民力量的运动，即公民抵抗，比武装冲突更有效。大规模参与是非暴力抵抗更有可能获胜的关键原因。成功的非暴力运动能够建立足够的政治力量和影响力，从而引发来自对手支持者的背叛。没有哪个暴政政权是铁板一块，每个独裁者都必须完全依赖不同支柱的支持者的合作、服从和帮助。大型非暴力抵抗运动能够利用网络来瓦解这些支柱的忠诚度。成功的运动会扩大其基础，并组织起来引发背叛，抵御攻击，并保持韧性。我们正处于民主倒退的紧急状态，倒退越深，爬出来就越难。

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How much of America would we need to mobilize to stop Trump's power grab? According to political scientist Erica Chenoweth, it takes 3.5 percent—the threshold after which every protest movement, across the world, has been successful. Against the backdrop of the anti-ICE and No Kings protests, the national guard deployment, and Donald Trump's birthday pageant, Chenoweth joins the show to break down the math of the 3.5 percent rule, explain why nonviolence is the key to meeting it, and to share the lessons the civil rights movement can teach us about staying unified, organized, and disciplined in the fight against authoritarianism.