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cover of episode How The Megabill Will Change America

How The Megabill Will Change America

2025/7/4
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The Daily

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Andrew Duehren
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Margot Sanger-Katz
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Tony Romm
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Tony Romm: 我认为这项法案最大的特点是让富人受益最多,而让穷人损失最多。几乎所有华盛顿的经济学家都认为,考虑到共和党的所有举措,底层人民实际上会遭受经济损失。例如,耶鲁大学的预算实验室分析显示,收入最低的人在未来十年左右的税后收入平均将减少约 560 美元,而收入超过 300 万美元的人的税后收入将增加约 118,000 美元。特朗普最大的选举收益实际上来自全国各地的低收入美国人,但他的选民将承担国会刚刚通过的税收方案的许多成本。法案中福利和成本分配不均的核心在于两个组成部分:大规模的减税,让富人获得最大的回报;大幅削减社会保障,这将打击最贫困的美国人,尤其是削减医疗保健。 Andrew Duehren: 共和党人通过广泛降低收入税的方式进行减税,收入越高、缴纳的所得税越多的人,从减税中获得的收益就越大。该法案中的一些减税措施对富人特别有利,这些税收变化只会影响收入最高的阶层,而且这些减税措施通常会给那些一开始就欠税最多的人带来最大的好处。对于年收入低于 10,000 美元的人来说,由于这项减税措施,他们明年只能节省 10 美元,但对于年收入超过 100 万美元的人来说,他们平均可以节省超过 66,000 美元。共和党人提高了遗产税的门槛,使得只有越来越富有的人才需要缴纳这种税。特朗普提出的针对小费和加班费免税的政策,只有特定类型的工人才能从中受益,因此这些政策并非普遍适用于所有工人。总体而言,这些更具民粹主义色彩的减税措施并未能惠及广大工人阶级。特朗普总统竞选时承诺的所有新减税政策都是税法的临时条款,可能会在几年内失效,而该法律使全面、广泛的所得税减免永久化,换句话说,最有利于富人的减税是永久性的,而理论上最有利于低收入美国人的减税不是永久性的。除了减税之外,该法案还包括许多重要的社会保障削减,那些靠小费或加班费为生的人可能会利用这些保障,但他们可能会失去这些福利,有些人可能会面临净损失。

Deep Dive

Shownotes Transcript

After months of debate, weeks of tense negotiations and 24 hours of Republican arm-twisting, President Trump has muscled his giant domestic-policy bill through both chambers of Congress.

It’s a major legislative victory for the president that paves the way for much of his second-term agenda, and it will have profound impacts across the country.

The Times journalists Tony Romm, Andrew Duehren and Margot Sanger-Katz discuss what the legislation changes, and those whose lives it will change the most.

Guest:

  • Tony Romm), a reporter covering economic policy and the Trump administration for The New York Times, based in Washington.
  • Andrew Duehren), who writes about tax policy for The New York Times from Washington.
  • Margot Sanger-Katz), a reporter for The New York Times who covers health care policy and government spending.

Background reading: 

For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily). Transcripts of each episode will be made available by the next workday. 

Photo: Eric Lee for The New York Times

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