Hurricane Hilary, Mortgage Rates, Summit Reaction
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IT could be the first tropical storm to hit california.

and more than eighty years now called hurricane Hillary, is threatening high winds and dangerous flooding.

When IT comes a short later .

this weekend, go. And this is up first from in pr news. The storm is expected to weaken as IT moves toward mexico's bahaa and nino lab, but still drench southern california, southwestern arizona and southern deva. We have the details.

The rate for thirty or fixed mortgage is at its highest level in twenty one years. What that might mean for home owners and hopefully in .

a minute and a gathering at camp David, what the U. S, japan and south korea discussed at the presidential retreat.

So please stay with us. We've got the news. You need to .

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member as I, P, C. A tropical storm watch has been issued for southern california, the first ever hurricane Hillary making its way up towards mexico, bohr and insula, and is expected to pass into the us on sunday evening as a tropical storm.

The national weather services quote, life threats, flooding is likely, and scientists say human cause, global warming can make intense storms like Hillary more common in P. R. Climate desks. Julia, Simon joints, now, Julia, thank you for being with us.

Thank you. sure.

So we can't yet officially say this storm is a result of climate change, but we can look at the link between humanity and severe weather, which seems to be happening A A lot lately, right?

We know that humans burning fossil fuels means that the whole earth is heating up and the ocean stores a lot of that heat. When ocean water is extra hot, it's easier for these big hurricanes to form. That hot water is sort of a fuel energy source for hurricanes. So that makes IT more unlikely that an intense storm, like hurricanes illy, will form.

So how hot are ocean waters right now?

Now the ocean is a lot warmer than usual this summer. Forty percent of the world's oceans are experiencing heatwaves right now, according to federal researchers. That's because of a natural climate pattern called lenient and human cause climate change. Part of the ocean that this storm formed, dover, is around bao hoc alive, nia, mexico, in the pacific temperature. And novell's, there are part of what's been fueling this storm, says you see a lay climate scientist, Daniel swing.

The ocean temperatures off the coast of california are much warmer than usual right now. As much as two to four grata, three to six fair night. That's a pretty significant increment .

of additional hurry. Scientists mediately form is fuelled by climate change as a storm is forming, but we do know that a really hot ocean can cause more intense storms that produce a lot of rain, and we're likely to see intense rain in the coming day in southern california and the southwest region.

So big storms do sometimes happen on the west coast, but again, this is the first time a tropical storm watch has been issued for southern california. Is the area which is your area you're there right now? Is everyone prepared?

Forecasters have said that this storm could dump a years over the rain for the southwest over a couple of days. Los Angeles officials had a press conference yesterday about storm preparations. They said they're working to help the on house community that live in vulnerable places like river beds. Here's los Angeles county y share of Robert luna. Our .

department's personnel are also working to deploy person now in the river beds to contact our own house population, our own house community, and connect them with term housing resources.

Luna also noted some additional precautions for communities at risk of landslides, like an area called palace various, which was already seeing land sides this summer. The big issue might be that a lot of southwestern communities aren't built for big storms like Hillary. The infrastructure was built for storms of the past. Climate change means were seeing .

many new risks. Do you right now, look, what should people be looking out for, especially areas that don't Normally get rain totals, like the one's forecasters say may happen later this weekend and into the next week?

Flooding is the number one killer in hurray es. So thing to remember, don't drive into standing water, turn around, don't drown is the message. There is a high probability of flash letting on day and monday in southern california, so people here should pay attention to flight alert evacuation orders, also a risk of land slides, especially in places with burn scars from wildfires. There's still a lot of uncertainty about the exact course of the storm, but generally make sure you have these alerts set up on your phone charger devices. Get gas now, l county officials said, people can get sandbags at local fire stations, make sure you of water, food are checking in with loved ones and neighbors, and have your bags packed for your family and pets if you need to evacuate.

Yeah, a lot of people think with these storms is the winds, but it's really the flooding. That's that's the most dangerous.

It's so dangerous. Yes.

if big storms like this are what we expect in the future, then what options are there to Better protect people, especially for places that are built for this sort of weather?

Yeah, humans have agency here. It's really important that as we build new infrastructure, we think about the possibility of intense storms like this one hitting places that might not have hit before. If humans stop emitting Greenhouse gases today, there will still be some warming into mid century big in. But by cutting climate pollution now, we can avoid worse outcomes in the future.

That's do your signal of imperor climate does joy.

Thank you so much. Thank you.

Are you scanning real al estate ads or heading out on open house this weekend? You may be in for a rude wakening this week. Morgan rates climb to their highest level in more .

than two decades, and that's would be buyers out of the market and forcing others to rethink what kind of house they can afford. And you achieve economics score respond Scottroswell y joins this. Scott. Thanks so much for bean with this good morning. How much of mortgage rates gone up?

The mortgage giant friday max is the average rate on a thirty year fixed home alone. This week is just over seven percent. That's the highest it's spent since two thousand. Two, a year ago, the average rate was just over five percent, and two years ago, IT was less than three percent.

What this means for a home buyer is the same monthly payment that would have bought a four hundred thousand dollar house last summer will only stretch to three hundred twenty five thousand dollar house today. So that's a big adjustment for a lot of would be bier to wrap their heads around. Just asked reeler lee Brown, who worked a lot of first time buyers around charlet and north CarOlina.

The first thing they have to get over is the sense of regret for not having purchased wall interest rates for look, there's a lot of people who may I just have done one IT a couple years ago, and so that regret can get in the way of making good decisions. And so I have to remind buyers that what feels expensive today is probably going to feel like a bargain ten years .

snail that's assuming home Prices continued climb. Uh, Brown tries to reassure clients to have just keep looking at a lower Price point. Maybe that mean settling for less house, more fixer upper. It's also an opportunity, he says, to get more creative on the financing side.

What is creative financing? I mean, what how does that work?

Well, maybe that means putting less money down and using some of the money you'd save for a downs yet to instead by a lower interest rate, depending on how long you planned to stay in a house that might make financial sense. Also, if you're buy from someone who has a va loan, you can assume that loan even if you weren't in the military, and that would probably Carry a lower interest date.

Scot, what's pushed up mortgage rates so much?

Mortgage rates tend to rise and fall with the yield on ten year treasuries, and that yield was up this week. This is indirectly tied the fed reserves efforts to curb inflation. The bone market.

Now, thanks to do that, the feds gonna have to leave its own interest strates higher for longer. So bon holder to demanding a higher turn. And that's feeding over in the mortgage tes.

And and can you forecast what the overall effect of this might be in the housing market?

Yeah, this is going to away on the market. Home sales are already down. Sales in june were down almost nineteen percent from a year ago. Not only a lot of buyers sitting on the sidelines, but so are a lot of sellers. Steve Shelley, who's a real her in nash field, says anybody who bought or refinance their home in the last few years probably has a really low interest rate that they don't want to give up.

These low interest rate are almost like golden handcuff. People don't want to get rid of that because if they want to buy up and buy a nicer home, what they're gonna to pay is going to be thousands of more dollars per months and mortgage.

So the housing market is definitely less frenzy now than IT was a couple of years ago. Now that's not all bad. Buyers and sellers have a bit more time now to catch their breath, maybe get an inspection, negotiate a little bit more h fewer home sales does have ripple effects elsewhere in the economy, though IT usually means people are buying less furniture, for example, fewer appliances as well.

And what are the implications for people who had intended, at least to build new houses?

Home builders are busy right now. More people are looking at newly build houses because there are so few existing homes on the market. There are also more than a million apartments under construction right now, which is the most we ve seen in decades. And as those come online, that should put downward sure on rents, which is at least a little good news for people who are Priced out of the housing .

market and is got to horse sly. Thanks so much. You're welcome.

And finally, today we take you to camp David in maryland by way of south south korea president bite and met with the leaders of south korea and japan yesterday at the president to retreat. The goal was the former partnership that would be a new force in the asia pacific region.

Japan and south korea have some long standing animal cities, and the hope on the part of the us. Is they can put some of those IDE in the face of threats from north korea, china and russia. And your his santhi queen is in soul. Thanks so much for being with a santhi.

Nice to join.

And what has reaction been there to the summer?

The main reaction in asia seems to be that the summit is unprecedented, but it's also largely symbolic, and the symbolism the three countries want to convey is that they are united in countries such as north korea, china and russia will not be able to exploit the differences between them. Now one of the outcomes is what the us. Is calling a commitment to consult among the three nations about potential threats.

So in the event of, for example, in north korean nuclear test or disruption to supply chains, the three will consult and coordinate their responses. There will also be annual three way leadership summits and military drills. I think everyone is clear that this is not a three way alliance under discussion, is still two billings, real alliances between the U.

S. In japan and between the U. S. In korea. And that's because there is still not enough trust between japan and korea to support a bilateral alliance with each other or a three way alliance with the us.

With that like of trust out of the summit come about.

well, the mistrust is left over from japan's colonial occupation of korea from one thousand nine ten to thousand nine hundred and forty five. During world war two, for example, japan's military forced korean and other women into sexual slavery. Thousands of koreans were contracted as force labors, and south coast president yusen g.

Essentially said that if japan is not going to compensate these fourth labors in south rea will, japan insisted, laid the matter to rest when the two countries Normalized relations in one thousand nine hundred and sixty. But this remains a major sticking point between the two. And most south koreans want japan, not south korea, to compense koreans. Despite this, the two countries is held their first some meetings in twelve years in march in washington, which i've been nudging them to do. IT is lighted deals.

We should camp David are supposed to survive any any subsequent changes in political administrations and public opinion that occur in democracies. Can they really do that?

Anything could happen. But the by administration is trying to lock in the progress that's been made by institutionalize ing IT. And here's how national security adviser jake Sullivan put its to reporters.

every leaders gonna to make decisions. But the architecture of framework, the structure that's being put in place now, from our perspective, has A A tail win behind IT that will propel IT forward and be very difficult to knock, of course.

Now, of course, there is concern in japan, in south korea about another trumpet administration, or someone like him, who is question the value of alliances. And it's also rare that you get this alignment of leaders in japan and south korea that is so friendly to each other.

And the how might disagreement effectives ed among north korea, china and russia?

Yes, well, the cambridge d summer human call out rush over its war on ukraine, north korean efforts, nuclear weapons and china for its activities around taiwan. In the south china, see pyongyang, beijing and moscow. Or of course, not happy about the sum.

They're tightening their CoOperation. The U. S. Claims that in north crea, already supplying russia with arms for using ukraine. Russia in china, meanwhile, occasionally stage joint military drills around south koa in japan, pRobing the allies defenses so the summer could strengthen these rival blocks.

And paris anthy q and soul, thanks so much for being with us.

Thank you.

And that's up first for August ninety, twenty, twenty three. And I jaso .

and Scott I on you. What's on tomorrow's episode of up .

first is the story of the first visit to the edge of the wider glaser in the world and is not just the edge of a glass, it's a calving edge as it's breaking off. The glass is an antartica will tell you why is on this thread.

Today's episode of up first was edited by illa energy graph nam Peter grand anemic now IT .

was produced by microclimate, directed by daily hinza, with engineering support from hana glavin.

If he donors, our senior supervising editor or executive producer is Sarah Lucy Oliver. Our deputy managing editor is jm k.

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