Politics in 2024, An Economic Preview, Using AI for Climate Solutions
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It's officially twenty twenty four in the beginning of a big year in american politics. How will the economy, immigration, abortion rights to ongoing wars and looming criminal trials for the living republican candidates shape this year's presidential election and rush mizz? And this is up first from mp r news.

The U. S. Economy performed Better last year than many people expected. Economic forecasters now says slower growth and lower inflation is on the way.

If you're a long term investors, brace for some volatile, I think, the markets.

Nine eve, how much stock should you put into this economic outlook for twenty twenty four? Plus many climate focus companies that work on everything from detecting fires to looking for livy and are sing artificial intelligence? How's a working so far? Stay with us will give you the news. You need to start your day.

There are celebrity in view shows and then there's wild card. It's a podcast for M P, R that the new york times just named as one of the ten best of twenty twenty four. It's hosted by me, ral Martin.

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There is no doubt twenty twenty four will be a consequent al year in politics. There is going to be a presidential election with starkly different visions for the country on hot to handle.

Everything from the economy to immigration and abortion rights and criminal trials are looming for one of those potential candidates here to walk us through the biggest political questions of twenty twenty four years in por, a senior political editor and corresponded dominico mountainy ahaid dominico era. So let's start with the republican primary. What will you be looking for as the nominating contest start well means .

the big question for me in this primary, whether nicky helier, an descanted st, can actually give former prison trump a real run for this nomination. I mean, to this point, trump has LED by huge margins in the polls. And so much of what we've been talking about in this race is really the race for second place.

Voting is just weeks away here with illa kicking off january. Let's see what voters think. And I am always excited when we can transition away from talking about the polls to talking about actual results.

So we are in this weird situation where the front runner for the republican party's nomination is facing dozens of criminal charges. The charges have not hurt trump with republicans. Do you expect anything to change in the general election if he gets there?

Yeah I mean, so far, those trials have only helped trump with republican base voters. He's been able to say he's been persecuted and his base certainly beliefs that but that's not likely gone to be the case with persuade able general election voters who have pretty negative views of trump. Um we could have a situation where trump is on trial during a general election. Georgia, for example, is proposed to start date of August fifth with cameras in the courtroom. And you know, I don't see how an oj style trial helps trump in a general election, but this is someone who is always believed it's Better to be in the spotlight than not to be.

That's right. Even with the questions about trump's legal chAllenges, they're certainly is not an easy tha president. Bide near is I mean, what what he contending with?

I mean, you have the war in ukraine and israel, the latter of which is really LED to a fracturing of the democratic base. There are major immigration pressures and of course, negative perceptions of the economy. Despite some strong signs in the economy, people continued to be pretty pessimistic about IT.

You know, a major question for me is whether those perceptions improved. There's a federal reserve loosen its belt sum and lower interest strates. Does inflation continue to ease? Those are gonna be key.

So are these things like the economy and, you know, the wars? Are they going to be what determines this election?

Well, there are going to be big factors, obviously, but maybe the biggest question for me that will determine the presidential election is, which matters, more frustrations with how binders doing his job with this age, or the negative views of trump. Most voters say bidness too old to be president, and they given law approval ratings. But in many surveys, they like trump even less. You know, I D expect democrat to spend millions of dollars or minding voters what IT is they don't like about trump, and expect them to use abortion tes again, as a motivator to get voters to the pulse.

So we've also seen several third party candidates jump into this race. How do you think theyll affect this?

Yeah, I think there are going to be a huge wild card. That means something that keeps democractic st. So I talked to up at night. You have people like Robert of Kennedy junior, jill stein, cornel west. No one is quite sure how any of them will factor in, but trump has a pretty firm base of supporters. So if you start there, democrats worry that this affected voters who wove, chosen by the over trump would vote potentially for one of those others and open up a path for trump back to the White house. Those candidates, and whether they gain real support could be something key to watch you.

That's p DNA. dominico.

Thank you. You're welcome.

The U. S. Economy did Better than expected in twenty twenty three.

So what's ahead in the new year? Will the economy continue to bubble like freshly pop champagne? Or will we suffer a hang over from stuff on inflation in high interest rates? Will will be a few hours into the new year. But npr scotorum ly has been talking with forecasters about what they see on the horizon, and he joins us.

Now he's got, hi, good. Be with you.

So god, what is the outlook for this year?

Rob, we should start with the coffee out that most the predictions made A A year ago at this time turned out to be wrong. So take this with a Green, a soul. In general, though economic forecasters expect some relative calm in the next twelve months, the economies expected to grow a little bit more slowly, unemployment is expected to pick up a little bit from its very low level, but not much to, and both inflation and interest rates are expected to moderate this coming year. The federal serve his signal that it's probably done raising interest rates and will likely start cutting rates in twenty four.

The prospect of lower rates has already given a lift to the stock market. What does that mean for the rest of the economy?

IT would certainly help sensitive sectors like manufacturing, which was in a slum for most of last year. A factory managers were already looking for a rebound in twenty twenty four. And info, who does a monthly survey of factory managers for the institute for supply management, says lower borrowing costs would likely make that rebound stronger.

IT looks like the worst of the manufacturing difficulties are likely behind us or soon to be behind us. The first half of twenty twenty four will be Better than the second half of twenty twenty three.

Wo so factories are feeling pretty bowl shh, about twenty twenty four. What about the housing market?

You know, housing is another sector that really struggled last year with rising interest rates. A lot of would be buyers were Priced out of the market and a lot of would be sellers who had locked in cheaper mortgage just felt like they couldn't afford to to move. But we have started to see some relief in mortgage rates.

You know they drop from nearly eight percent in october to just over six and a half percent last week. And the national association of reuters think rates will come down a little bit more this spring. They're not going back the ult three percent range we saw two or three years ago, but rya glock lin, who has an association of realms in northern Virginia, thus, we will start to see a pickup in home sales this year.

The initial sort of sticker shock of the quick rise in interest rates over the past year or so, he caused home buyers to sort of pause and say, I wait, you know, this is too much, but consumers starting ting to get more comfortable where the rate are going to be. At some point, life happens and people are going to move.

The shortage of homes for sale has also given a lift to home builders who are keeping busy. And that's been good because we need to build a lot more housing in this country.

It's got to hate to say this given how the predictions for twenty, twenty three were all wrong, but is is safe to say that we've dodged a recession.

let's say to say we didn't have a recession in twenty twenty three. It's harder to say that with confidence about twenty twenty four. But you know, a growing number forecasters do think the fed may succeed in getting inflation under control without sending the economy into a ditch.

The stock market is acting like we were already achieve that so called soft landing. Joe Davis, whose global chief economist at vanguard, is not so sure. He thinks the fall out from last year's high interest rates is still making its way through the economy. And the twenty twenty four could still be a bumpy ride.

Markets have surprised me how strong there. If you're a long term investor, it's brace for some beautiful I think the markets naive.

you know, stocks surprised for a very rosy twenty twenty four, but there are always potential pit falls out there. The job market could turn out to be weaker than we expect. Consumer spending could take a hit.

Obviously, there is no shortage of geopolitical uncertainty right now. So economic forecasts kind like new year's resolutions. Probably best not to put too much faith in them.

That's in pair, scotland's ly things got you are.

All sorts of companies and researchers have embraced artificial intelligence, and that includes people working on climate solutions. July Simon from imperious climate desk is with us to explain how A I is being used to tackle global warming. So Julia, climate change means more wild fires. And I understand some companies and researchers think A I can help with that.

Yeah, I spoke with carston playle. Ta, his company diet is based in berlin, where you're based. Rob, ah he's working on what he calls an electronic nose for fires.

OK electronic nose. That sounds interesting. Tell me more so.

One thing to help stop megastores is detecting them early, right when it's in the early smaller ing stage. So blame shelter is installing these electronic noses, basically sensors in the forest.

And that knows we can actually smell fires. We can smell the organic material burning.

pick up on the gases of the fire. And this is where A I comes in playing shot. Does company trains A I in the sensor to distinguish between Normal in a forest and the smell of a forest on fire? He says using smell to detect fires can be Better than, say, using satellite imaging, because by the time a satellite can spot a fire, IT can be too late. And detecting fires early means it's a lot easier to fight the fire.

So how do they know these electronic noses are working?

Yeah, it's early days. They have fifty sensor installations around the world flying, shultz says. Last month in lebanon, though the sensors detected a fire really quickly.

the center is reacted within thirty minutes, so prevented a potential firefly ad.

Well, that's really quick. So what's another way that A I can help in climate solutions.

from solar panels to electric vehicles? Many climate solutions require minerals. Think lithium, copper, cobalt.

The world needs a lot more of these minerals than our current supplies. The question is where to find them. And this is where companies and governments are using A, I to help. They're using A I to sift through big data sets to Better identify what places around the world have potential for mining these minerals because expLoring for minerals, it's really expensive. These mining companies are finding that using A I can save a lot of time and money.

okay. So I understand that you have also one more use of A I to tackle climate change.

I do IT involves mEthane. Is this really hot planet? Heating pollution, typically from oil and gas fields, land fields, culture. And one half is chief analyst at chaos is a climate analytics firm. He says, for years people, new mEthane emissions were rising in the atmosphere.

but we had no idea where they thing was company from. We had an understanding of the climate risk, but there was no understanding of the sources, and therefore very limited scope for action.

Then they started using eye to interpret huge trove es of satellite data. They now track on a daily basis where the big leaks and other releases of mEthane are coming from. K O S A, I. Fuel data is being used by the united nations to verify if companies reports on mEthane emissions are accurate.

Mp, july assignment.

thanks so much. Thank you.

And that's up first for the first day of twenty twenty four. Today's episode of up first was edited by dana ferron early berliner and milla energy. IT was produced by the ot.

Butch adam b. And abrams in linzie. I we get engineering support from stc.

Abbott in our tactical director is carara strange. Start your day here with us tomorrow. Thanks for listening up. First, you can find more in depth coverage of the stories we talked about today and lots more on P. S. Morning edition, the radio show that Stephen skip play the shell marton in a Martinez, regularly host by morning edition on your local N, P, R station. At stations, not N, P, R, not work.

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What happens to democracy when one political party has near complete power? That's the question of the heart of supermajority. The series the new yorker just named one of the ten best podcast of twenty twenty four. Listen and hear what all the hype is about. IT sees a nineteen of N P R S embedded podcast.