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D
Domenico Montanaro
M
Mara Liason
Miles Parks: 就两位总统候选人可能的胜选之路，特别是假设所有稳固的民主和共和党州都按预期投票的情况下，两位候选人需要赢得哪些摇摆州才能赢得总统大选？
Domenico Montanaro: 卡马拉·哈里斯最直接的胜选路径是赢得所有她被看好的州，并赢得威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州这三个摇摆州。宾夕法尼亚州的广告支出巨大，达到12亿美元，显示出该州的重要性。哈里斯的竞选活动也集中在这些州。
Mara Liason: 无论如何，宾夕法尼亚州都是这场选举的关键。特朗普已将大部分法律努力集中于质疑宾夕法尼亚州的结果，这表明该州对双方都至关重要。如果哈里斯没有赢得宾夕法尼亚州，或者特朗普没有赢得宾夕法尼亚州，都很难想象他们能获得270张选举人票。哈里斯需要赢得宾夕法尼亚州、北卡罗来纳州或佐治亚州中的一个，才能有胜算。
Domenico Montanaro: 特朗普最现实的胜选路径是赢得宾夕法尼亚州、佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州，这样他就不需要赢得其他摇摆州了。另一个路径是赢得威斯康星州、密歇根州和宾夕法尼亚州，再加上一个阳光地带州。特朗普需要动员那些通常投票率较低的选民，例如拉丁裔和年轻黑人选民，以弥补其支持者基础的缩小。
Mara Liason: 特朗普的竞选策略是巩固其既有支持者基础，而不是争取中间选民。他的最后信息变得越来越极端，使用了更具煽动性的言辞。
Domenico Montanaro: 我们应该关注弗吉尼亚州和佐治亚州的早期计票结果，以了解全国范围内的投票趋势。特朗普可能会在计票结果出来之前就宣布自己获胜，因此人们应该为计票过程需要时间做好准备。
Miles Parks: 对两位候选人胜选策略的深入分析，涵盖了他们各自需要争取的关键摇摆州，以及他们为赢得选举所采取的策略。分析师们还讨论了影响选举结果的各种因素，包括民意调查、广告支出和选民参与度。此外，还探讨了选举当晚以及之后可能出现的挑战和争议。
Deep Dive
Why are swing states crucial for both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to win the election?
They need to secure 270 electoral votes, and swing states are the key to reaching that threshold.
What is Kamala Harris's most straightforward path to 270 electoral votes?
Winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, which are the toss-up blue wall states.
Why has Pennsylvania seen the highest spending on political ads?
It has crossed the billion-dollar threshold due to the presidential race and other state-level contests.
Why is Pennsylvania crucial for both candidates' paths to victory?
It's a key state that both need to win or lose to secure 270 electoral votes.
What is Donald Trump's 'eastern sweep' path to victory?
Winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina without needing other swing states.
Why is Trump focusing on low propensity voters?
They are crucial for making up the margins, especially among Latino and younger Black voters.
What is Trump's closing message strategy?
He's targeting his base with extreme rhetoric to motivate low propensity voters.
Why might the election result take longer to determine this time?
Pennsylvania could delay the outcome, and Trump is likely to claim victory early and dispute results.
The discussion focuses on the critical swing states that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump need to win to secure 270 electoral votes.
- Kamala Harris needs to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to secure a straightforward path to 270 electoral votes.
- Donald Trump's path includes winning Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina, or replicating his 2016 strategy by winning Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
- Both candidates must win at least one of these key states to have a viable path to victory.
Shownotes Transcript