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What Not to Do When the Market Is Down with Peter Mallouk
2025/4/15
Money Rehab with Nicole Lapin
P
Peter Mallouk
Peter Mallouk: 我认为长期投资者应该对熊市有心理准备，熊市就像恐怖电影，虽然知道结局，过程依然会让人害怕，但只要经历过几次，就能坦然面对。熊市和市场调整是周期性事件，虽然每次感觉不同，但历史总是惊人地相似。
在熊市中，投资顾问的工作是引导客户渡过难关，并抓住出现的投资机会。投资者在熊市中容易恐慌性抛售，而这往往是最大的错误。长期投资者应该对熊市有心理准备，并根据自身情况调整投资策略。普通投资者容易在熊市中做出错误的投资决策，例如在市场低点卖出，高点买入。
在熊市中，持续定投和逢低买入都是不错的策略，但不要试图抄底。在熊市中，恐慌性行为比糟糕的投资更具破坏性。在熊市中，投资顾问需要兼顾同理心和专业的建议，安抚客户情绪，并帮助他们做出理性的决策。
在熊市中进行再平衡，卖出债券买入股票，可以帮助投资者在市场反弹时获得更高的收益。熊市是进行税收损失抵扣的好时机，可以降低税负并提高投资回报。对于即将退休的投资者，需要在保护短期资金安全和长期增长之间取得平衡，通过持有足够的债券来应对市场波动。
投资顾问在熊市中除了提供投资建议外，还会进行一些幕后工作，例如寻找私人投资机会，帮助客户调整风险承受能力等。长期投资者不应该因为短期市场波动而改变投资策略，而应该坚持长期投资计划。投资者应该在市场恢复正常后，根据自身风险承受能力调整投资策略。
当前市场下跌可能持续一段时间，但不太可能发展成2008年金融危机那样的严重局面。当前的市场下跌与2008年金融危机不同，后者对全球经济构成了严重的系统性风险。虽然当前的关税冲突规模超出预期，但它并非完全出乎意料，因为特朗普政府此前也曾采取类似措施。
经济衰退期间，所有权类资产通常会打折出售，是投资者逢低买入的好时机。债券市场与股票市场通常表现相反，但在当前情况下，两者同时下跌，这比较罕见。特朗普政府可能试图通过制造经济衰退来降低利率，但这存在风险。没有人能够准确预测美联储的政策和市场走向。
当前经济衰退的可能性正在下降，即使出现衰退，也可能较为温和。虽然美国经济存在问题，但其地理位置、资源和军事实力等因素使其具备较强的抗风险能力，不太可能像其他国家那样发生经济崩溃。在经济不确定时期，拥有一个财务顾问非常重要，可以帮助投资者制定计划并做出明智的决策。
Nicole Lappin: (无核心论述，主要为引导访谈和总结)
supporting_evidences
Peter Mallouk: 'bear market down 20% every four or five years. Correction down 10% every couple of years...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Well, it was very interesting because typically with a bear market, there's a series of events that come all at once, COVID, 9-11, 08-09 housing crisis...'
Peter Mallouk: 'But right now, I mean, the administration can make it much worse or much better depending on what decisions they make along the way...'
Peter Mallouk: 'So let's talk high level about what those opportunities could be. What do you tell investors who don't know what to do with their portfolios right now?...'
Peter Mallouk: 'I think it is interesting because there's all kinds of people out there...'
Peter Mallouk: 'But if you're retired or you're older and you're relying on the portfolio, well, you should have bonds to cover your short-term needs...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Whatever they're doing in their 401k or that regular paycheck should always continue...'
Peter Mallouk: 'In your experience, what's more damaging in a downturn? Bad investment or a panicked investor?...'
Peter Mallouk: 'i think empathy is a key to this because a lot of people will call and say i know what you're going to say but...'
Peter Mallouk: 'So I want to dig into some strategy. What's your take on rebalancing during a downturn?...'
Peter Mallouk: 'It's a fantastic time for tax loss harvesting...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Yeah, I mean, you make a great point about the young investors...'
Peter Mallouk: 'i mean i think the big the big things an advisor can do is they can it depends what your asset classes you're in...'
Peter Mallouk: 'we're long-term investors and then something like this happens we can't all of a sudden switch to be short-term investors...'
Peter Mallouk: 'But the decision should be made after the market has returned to normal.'
Peter Mallouk: 'Well, I think the worst case scenario is off the table...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Yeah, I mean, we're talking about an existential threat to the global economy...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Well, I mean, definitely it was much bigger scale than expected...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Well, the big opportunities in a recession are building the ownership part of your portfolio...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Yeah, this is very, very rare, Nicole...'
Peter Mallouk: 'I mean, if you think about the Trump administration's kind of perfect storm...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Nobody knows exactly what the Fed is going to do, where the markets are going to go...'
Peter Mallouk: 'Well, these predictions, they really almost have to change day to day...'
Peter Mallouk: 'I think Ray is a historian, right?...'
Peter Mallouk: 'I think this is if you don't have one and you don't have a plan...'
Deep Dive
This chapter sets the stage by introducing Peter Mallouk and the context of market downturns. It emphasizes the cyclical nature of bear markets and corrections, highlighting that while they're predictable, they always feel different. The anxiety surrounding "Obliteration Day" is mentioned as a focal point of the conversation.
- Bear markets occur every four to five years, with corrections every couple of years.
- While predictable, each downturn feels unique.
- "Obliteration Day" highlights the market's reaction to significant events.
Shownotes Transcript