An Official Celtics Funk, Plus Todd McShay and Million-Dollar Picks
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Coming up, the state of the Celtics, Todd McShay, million dollar picks all next.

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on Sunday night doing this podcast. So if you haven't watched us do the pod live, guess what? It's just like us doing the podcast because that's what it is. FanDuel, I'm doing those 30 on 30 picks every Friday where we try to guess who's going to score 30 plus points on the Friday NBA slate. They do a little profit boost action for you. So check out on my Twitter account. I will be tweeting out.

who I think is going to get that on Friday. Coming up, the state of the Celtics. I saw them back-to-back nights. Clippers, Lakers. I have a lot of thoughts. That's at the top. Then Todd McShay. He comes on because he's doing a show for us on The Ringer, The McShay Show. Very good podcast. An essential listen during the college football season. So we're going to talk NFL playoffs, college football draft, a whole bunch of things. And then last but not least, diehard Washington fans

commanders fan, Joe house. He's going to do a million dollar picks with me. He's out of his mind. It's colonoscopy juice house. That's who's on the pod today. We'll explain when it comes on. So that's it. First, our friends from Pearl jet. Yeah.

All right. So earlier in the week, I told myself Celtics Clippers Wednesday night, Celtics Lakers Thursday night, both in L.A. I'm going to go to both games and then I'm going to come home and I'm going to do a little monologue at the top of the Thursday podcast, no matter what happens. My worst case scenario is that the Celtics were going to be alarming in both games and that we're going to have real questions now about what's going on with this team.

Cause it's beyond a funk and it's beyond an on off button issue. There's something a little bit deeper happening. And I was fortunate enough to sit pretty close to the court, both games. I was behind the Celtic bench for the Laker game, which was just embarrassing and really awful. And I think we're at the point now where we have to ask ourselves, is the Celtics team just different than it was last season? All right. Well, what's different about it? Let's start with Jalen Brown.

who isn't shooting as well as he did last year. I'm not going to do the thing where I just read you a bunch of stats. You can look up all these stats. He's not shooting as well. Three-pointers, two-pointers. He's clumsier with the ball. He's closer to where he was two years ago than where he was last year, where last year it felt by the end of the season Tatum was 1A and Jalen Brown was 1B.

Tatum is clearly better than Brown this season. There is no, the 1A, 1B thing is out the window. And I don't really understand what's happening here. Studying it in person for the last two days,

He seems jacked. He looks like he's filming Rambo First Blood Part Two or Predator with Stallone in the 80s. He's like really jacked to the point that I'm starting to wonder if it's made him a little more stiff. And, you know, there was some really weird Clipper moments on Wednesday night where they're playing against

You know, the role players and the scrubs and the Clippers, because the Clippers rest everybody. They're furious with the league that the league rescheduled the fire game and it was six games in nine days. So they're like, we're throwing away the Celtic game. And as soon as they did that, I was like, watch this. I bet they hang around somehow with the Celtics. They were very well coached and they really exploited some of the Jalen stuff that's been going on this year. What was fascinating about the Clipper game, Van Gundy, who's like the defensive coordinator and the Clippers coach,

was just devising all these different ways to mess with the Celtics. Just, they were trapping Jason Tatum 45 feet from the basket as he was trying to do his point forward stuff. They were trying to dive at Jalen's dribble, like which a lot of smart teams do. They're also trying to trap him at the end of games and just basically make him make dumb plays, which he was, for whatever reason, really happy to do in that Cooper game. And they were exploiting the fact that

This year, unlike last year, you can go by all the Celtic guys. You saw it in the Clipper game with guys like Derrick Jones and Kevin Porter was doing it until the Celtics brought in Jaden Springer. The Lakers tonight. How many times did Reeves go by somebody? I mean, the Celtics, one of the things, the best things about them last year was the white holiday combo and the fact that those guys could lock down basically everybody in the other team. Tatum as a two-way player. Jalen Brown, whose defense, especially in the playoffs, was great.

And this year, they don't lock anybody down. Anybody in the league can go by them and get to the rim, which goes back to, is this an on-off button issue or is just something different than last year? This is not an old team. These guys are all in their 20s. These guys are all in their prime or about to hit their prime. And it's sloppy stuff that you could blame

The fact that they had a 100 game season last year, that Tatum played in the playoffs, that White, not in the playoffs, in the Olympics, that White and Holiday were in the Olympics, that Horford's older, that they didn't have Porzingis for the first two months. There's all these things you can blame. And I'm perfectly fine with doing that. But it doesn't explain why Jalen isn't as good as he was last year.

I test over and over again, game after game does not seem like the same guy as it was last year. Why isn't the defense as good as it was last year? Well, you can look at the advanced metrics and it seems fine. Even like the last 19 games, they're 10 and nine. If you look at their net rating on NBA.com for the last 20 games of the season, not counting today at Lakers, their second and defensive rating. So there's all these advanced things you can look at and be like, no, no, they're fine.

But I'm telling you, if you're watching them every night, if you're going to the games, they don't really look fine. They don't lock teams down with defense the way they did. They're never up 20, 25 like they were last year. They felt like they were up 20 in 75 to 80% of the games. This year, that feels like they're down 15, down 10, down 12 in the first half of a lot of these games.

And if you go back, you think they were 21 and five and now they're 31 and 14. So they're 10 and nine in their last 19. I watched all of the games they lost and I went to two of them or one went to one of them.

The 10 and 9 thing starts with the Bulls. They lose because Levine is just the best guy on the floor. He's 36. He just beats them. He plays better than everybody in the Celtics. Fine. That's one game. They lose to the Magic, who were missing guys because they couldn't hit threes. They were 8 for 33 from threes. And if you watch that game, the Magic just played really hard. They played harder than the Celtics did. And you go, huh. All right. Well, you know, on off switch. Fine.

Sixers Christmas, same thing. Sixers wanted the game more. Chuck that one up. Well, the Sixers, they had all their guys. It was national TV. They have a losing record. They wanted the game where it was their Super Bowl. Chuck that one up. Just making excuses time after time with this Pacers.

They win the first game against the Pacers by a million points. And you know, two days later, the way this works with these, where you played the team two times in three games, you just know the Pacers are going to do better in the second game, which of course they do. But the Celtics shoot 54 threes and they lose. So you leave that game. You're like, eh, too many threes. They didn't go to the basket enough. So again, excuses. OKC was the first sign of like slight alarm because they played really well for three quarters and

Um, they were going toe to toe with the team that, um, you know, they might be seen in the finals, assuming they have a chance to get there. And then, uh, Drew stunk SGA was the best guy in the game. And in the fourth quarter in nut crunch time, which was really good for the Celtics down the stretch last season, especially in the playoffs. Okay. So you just outplayed them and stole the game from them. Slight sounds of alarm for that one.

They have a home no-show against the Kings, who just changed their coach. Drew and Derek White just looked ancient in that game. Three for 12. Eh, coming back from a little road trip where they look pretty good. Well, let that one slide. Again, excuses. They lose to Toronto, who's not good. And Toronto shoots 51%, and Jalen's off. It was four for 16. Another bad sign.

They choke against the Atlanta Hawks. And this was Drew. This was one of the worst. This is probably the worst game he played against Boston. They screwed up the game. The game was going to be over. They screwed it up. They blow it. Not the kind of thing that was happening last year, though. Fine. And then we go to this L.A. trip in these two games where Clippers game just take care of the game. They're playing all their scrubs and their role players. Just knock them out. Knock them out. The last year's team would win the game by 40.

This year's team, it's a struggle the whole time. And somehow it goes to overtime. They put miles on Tatum. They put miles on Brown. They put miles on white when they're playing the Lakers the next night who are arrested in the TNT game. So basically they took so much effort to win that Clipper game. And now they go into this Lakers game and, uh, and they're a mess. So back to the Jalen Brown thing last year, Brown and Tatum, uh,

just had a really good thing going where there was games. If Tatum didn't totally have it, Brown would be able to lift it. And they just had a nice yin yang thing that they just haven't had in the same way this year. And Jalen's offense has been really rough to watch. Um, I could give you a million stats. You can go look them up, but, uh, his two point shootings way down is three point shootings way down. Um,

And he's added a couple of things to his game that I just don't love. Um, there's like this flat footed fall away. He has now at the foul line. I can't stay in that one. Does these weird drives to the basket where. And say, you know, sometimes I'll try to elevate and dunk on guys. Other times he's doing like this flat footed kind of keeping low to the ground, like scoop into traffic thing that, uh, the Clippers were eating up last night.

The alarming thing with Brown, back to the Van Gundy thing. So the Celts are up like, you know, six points, four points, whatever, in the last minute of regulation. And they're trapping the Celtics. They're doing all these things to try to get the Celtics screw up. And they basically target Jalen Brown. And there's this one possession where Van Gundy's telling them, because we could see it. We're watching, we're watching Van Gundy's running the huddle. It was kind of amazing to watch.

And he's telling the guys something. So they come out and the Celtics swing the ball and they swing it. And the Clippers are trying to get them to swing it to Brown. And they do. They trap Brown. He throws it away. Clippers score. Clippers come off and they're all fired up and they're pointing at Van Gundy. It was like, you told us that was going to happen. And I'm sitting there going, this is a bad sign. If Van Gundy is just reading us like he's like the defensive coordinator in a football game who knows our plays, like he's steering us to the play that we don't want to happen.

It just wasn't great. They were really, really outcoached in that Clipper game, which I did not love. But in general, he just...

You know, he'll hit some threes. The stats are fine. He can fool you unless you're actually watching game after game. He just hasn't been as good as he was last year. Derek White's another one. Derek White, who the first six weeks of the season, it was like, this guy's going to make the all-star team. This guy is one of the best 30 assets in the league. And his three-point shooting has dropped by the month. 47% first month, 40%, 35%, 30% this month. The game today, he was like the 19th best player in the game. Obviously, he's not.

But he's just not impactful. And then Holiday, who kind of comes and goes and he's older and he's clearly saving himself for the playoffs. First half of the game, non-existent. Second half of the game, they come out, they're pissed against the Lakers. And they're now playing defense. And Holiday is guarding everybody and has this little five-minute stretch that reminded you, like, this is why this team's pretty special.

When they can unleash drew is like this defensive weapon Tatum and Brown and poor Zingas with this height. Like there, this is it. This is the team we're used to seeing. And then, you know, missed a couple shots. The Celtics were just so awful tonight. I don't know how many layups they missed, how many shots around the rim, but it felt like it was at least 20. They just couldn't buy a basket. Um, they were just a complete mess. So the Brown things concerning the white things concerning holidays, older,

I'm going to chalk it up to that. The on-off switch thing, understandable. We've seen it happen a bunch of times with teams that won the title. But as we talked about before the season, the pods we've done, it could go one of two ways after you win the title. You either have the on-off switch where you have the chip on your shoulder because the bullseye is on you and everybody's coming after you. And you can take that personally and be like, you know what? We're going to kick everybody's asses again. That is not this Celtics team, at least so far. Yeah.

They got outcoached in a few games, especially recently in the OKC game, the Clipper game last night, which they ended up winning, but definitely outcoached in that one. Lakers game tonight. I don't know what the lineups, but they're playing twin towers. The whole, it's like you're doing the Lakers a favor when you're playing size, where you want to, you want to use your athleticism. Last year, one of the reasons they blew them out was they were building everything around their wings and

Tonight, they're playing Cornette. They're doing Horford and Porzingis together. They didn't play Jaden Springer at all, even though his defense was so impactful yesterday. And I didn't really understand anything they were doing. I wanted them to put Jaden Springer on LeBron or Reeves, try to take those guys out and try to win the game with defense. They did the opposite. And the Lakers made everything they took. There is...

No real roster flexibility for trades. They're a second apron team. They have a bunch of big contracts and a bunch of small contracts and nothing really in between. Springer at 4 million, Pritchard at 7 million. And I don't even know what the move is. Like the move is to hope that the light bulb goes off with these guys because right now it's not going off. I mentioned Holiday with the age, 43% shooting from three last year, 35% from this year. They're just less special.

And they have these funk games now that they just weren't having even in the first six weeks of the season. So as I look at the state of the Celtics, conversations I have with my friends, with my dad, with everybody I know who likes the team, nobody is like, it's fine. It's okay. We're good. Nobody thinks that. But nobody is really in full panic either. It's more like, no, no, it should come back.

I'm not sure that defense is going to come back in the way that we really need it to come back unless Jalen can get back to where he was last year. And that's the guy I'm watching because I feel like Tatum actually made a slight step up from last year as a two-way guy, as a point forward, as a reliable guy night after night after night. With that said, last night is a really good example of the difference between Jokic, Giannis, SGA,

Luka when he's healthy, and then every other really good player in the league, including Tatum. Because last night was a night where it's like, you're playing all your role players and your scrubs. I'm going to have 43. I'm going to just ice this game myself. This is what SGA does over and over again. SGA had, what did he have, 55 against Utah? Over and over again, he's just like dusting teams. And Tatum, as good as he is night after night after night, and the best thing about him is how consistent he is as a two-way guy.

Um, he's, he's just not a, I'm just going to dust the other team and just get on my back. Everybody guy. So it's the collective shit that has to make this team special. And if Jalen's not quite where he was last year, if white's not quite where he was last year, if holidays a little older, if Horford's a little older, if you're, if you're moving Porzingis back in, the only guy who's gone up a level is Pritchard. And then on top of it,

The league's better. The West is better. OKC's better. Cleveland's better. The Knicks are better. You know, it's just everybody's deeper. It's a lot harder. You don't have 11 teams tanking yet. And you have nights like you lose to Toronto because, you know, you fucked around. So,

When I think about like the trade deadline coming and also it's not just a trade deadline, but the team is being sold. Like the bids were in today to get through the first round. There's at least five bidders. Everyone's expecting this to go to 6 billion. There's some instability within the organization, which is understandable because they're about to change hands from this great ownership and this great infrastructure they've had for the last almost 20 plus years.

To the unknown. So you have an organization that's a little more unstable than it was. You have a team that's not quite as stable as it was. The team I saw tonight against the Lakers, like I think this is the thing that concerns me the most. The camaraderie slash connection with the guys doesn't seem the same right now.

And it might just be like, oh, they're like an older married couple that, you know, they've, they've done this, they've been together. They don't need to do it. But there's a lot of plays where it's just five guys on the court. Like when, you know, they're shooting foul shots.

So five guys on the court who just seem like they're not connected in any way. There's plays where like somebody makes a shot and gets fouled and it's going to be a three point play and not all the guys come over and do the fist bump with them. It's little tiny stuff like that. It's the way the bench is reacting to certain things on the game. Not the same as last year. Last year, the bench standing up, going nuts. The, uh, the personality of the team, you could just feel it when you're in the building, when you're on TV, you don't feel it in the same way this year. And the Clipper game yesterday, uh,

Jaden Springer, because he, you know, out of nowhere and everybody likes him and he just had an awesome game. He was great. He swung the game for them and it really kind of ignited the bench. The bench was into it. They were psyched for him. He made a big three in the corner when Harden was like talking shit to him as he shot it and he made it and he ran off and they were all going nuts. And then tonight in this Laker game, it just felt like they all just wanted to go home. So, um,

I'm both concerned and not concerned because I still don't know if there's three teams better than them. I don't think there's three teams more talented than them. And I think they should, you know, there's no real reason that I can see that they can't make the finals again.

But the way this is going, they're not going to have the one seed in the East and they're not going to have, they're not going to have a home court advantage in the finals. If OKC gets in and maybe even a couple other teams, like now you're looking at a situation where maybe even Denver can finish with a better record than them. So this is a question and this is what makes trying to go back to back so great. And we've seen so many teams try to do it and not be able to do it. And there's always reasons for it. You always hit a point like this.

We have to look in the mirror and decide, do we really want to defend our title or not? And what I'm seeing lately with the Celtics is a team that seems like a zombie version of itself that doesn't seem to have that same chip on its shoulder, that doesn't seem to be treating

a back-to-back title as a life or death experience for them. There's too many games now where the other team's playing harder than them and too many games when they're not solving issues that are pretty obvious as you're watching, like tonight. Like just take out Reeves, just play hard defense on LeBron, guard him full court. Just make sure you're not giving up open threes to people like Hachimura.

This is, that's another thing with the Celtics team, the open threes that they're giving up this year. Like it makes you want to rip your hair out. So again, it's not even February yet. A million things can change. One thing I'm looking for the rest of the way, and this is what I'll leave you with is they have to have a win streak at some point. You have to put together three, four weeks of winning basketball night after night after night, where there seems like there's something special about your team. Even Dallas last year,

Um, and Dallas, you know, was an unexpected party crash that made the finals, but Dallas had the stretch after the all-star break where for 25 games, they just were kicking ass and playing really well. The Celtics have not had a real stretch like that since the start of the season. And as this regular season goes on, they're not going to do that. And this just becomes a night to night. I don't know what I'm getting from these guys situation. It's, I don't think they're going to make finals. So.

It's not urgent yet, but I'm flagging it. I didn't like what I saw the last two nights. One of those two games should have been good. Neither of them were. And honestly, they should have lost both games. So we'll see. This is a nice test for Joe Missoula. This is a nice test for the roster, whether they want to tinker around it, maybe get a little more athletic, especially on the wing. It feels like they're an athletic wing short. And then Jalen Brown is the guy to watch going forward. What are...

What are his numbers? What is his impact? Can he be the 1B again? Because right now he's not. He's a 2. He's not a 1B. And if he's a 2, the ceiling of the Celtics team has to drop a little bit. I like what I've seen from Porzingis. I think the pedigree of this team is going to be there when it actually matters. They're going to have a home court when it actually matters. There's going to be a good crowd for them. But it's pretty alarming because the Lakers crushed them tonight. And I don't think the Lakers are good.

So that was my takeaway was, oh, this says way more about the Celtics than it does about the Lakers. Anyway, we're going to take a break and bring back Todd McShay. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. From the first whistle to the final drive, FanDuel takes the NFL playoffs to the next level right now. New customers can bet $5 and get 300 bucks in bonus bets if you win.

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So hire smarter in the new year. Find your next great hire on LinkedIn. Post your job for free at linkedin.com slash Simmons. Once again, linkedin.com slash Simmons to post your job for free terms and conditions apply. All right. Taping this early Thursday afternoon Pacific time. Todd McShay is here. I hope you've been listening to the McShay show, which we've had on the ringer for the last couple of months during a very action-packed

college football season. Lots to get to. First of all, welcome to the ringer belatedly. Great to have you on the pod. Yeah, man, it's been fun. I appreciate it. Appreciate your support and all of it. And we're having a good time. It's been a whole different world, right? Like I didn't know anything about this world, but we've enjoyed it. And now we're kind of turning the page. We have the NFL playoffs and then the NFL draft. And so we're kind of hitting our sweet spot.

Well, I have a vested interest in this draft, which we'll get to later. Did the right team win the college football championship? Yeah, they did. And what's wild, too, is like all the complaints about the 12 team playoff and all the adjustments we have to make in the seating's a mess and it should never be conference champions. But at the end of the day, Ohio State wouldn't have been in it in the previous, you know, 14 playoff structure. And Ohio State

was clearly the best team and and it took them going on a run the Michigan loss is a Michigan thing for Ohio State it's not reflective of the program and what they are I mean that's that's almost a headspace that they're gonna have to have to deal with but um but that was the best team and it was everyone talked about well they bought a 20 million dollar roster well it's

They just used a lot of that 20 million to keep the guys there that were there on the defensive side. And yeah, they added a running back in Quinn shot. Judkins and their quarterback, Will Howard was a really good fit for what they do. But ultimately the vast majority of that team was there and they just kept a lot of guys from going to the NFL and having to take pay cuts to do so. Right. Wait, you know, you were one of the rare college and NFL guys. Russillo is like this too. There's a few of them.

Gun to your head, which one do you like more? Like if you could only be stuck with one for the rest of your life, which one would you pick? Gun to head, I would say college football. Okay, so why? Why college football? What is it? I guess I grew up on it. Like my grandfather worked with Bo Schembechler and I grew up in Boston, outside of Boston, Swanscott, small town north of Boston.

but he had worked, he lived in, in Ohio and, and helped the recruiting area of Northeast Ohio. And, um,

And so I was around that, around that Michigan program and kind of just understood like, you always feel like the pageantry, but it's like just how important that is. And it was weird growing up here. Right. Cause like it's all pro sports here in New England, all pro sports. Except for the one fluty run. We had that little fluty intersection and that was a bad app for football, for college football. Right. Yeah.

And so just being around that, I kind of was introduced to something that was different than what we grew up around, you know, living in this area. So I don't know. I just have always loved like going to games and the tailgating and how important it is and the flags flying as you're driving through a town and the crowd and the atmosphere. It's just home to me. It really is. But the personnel part, like I just, I became obsessed with.

in my 20s when I started in this business, just evaluating, all right, which of these guys can actually go play at the next level and building a roster. So that's kind of how it all developed for me. Well, so last year we had these three quarterbacks and it was so much fun to talk about them and everybody kind of agreed, ceiling-wise, Caleb has to be first. That was like what everybody came away with. This guy, he's Mahomes-ish. There's some leadership stuff potentially. There's some immaturity stuff.

But he's got to be the pick. And yet there were some other people who were like, ah, Jake Mays, little Josh Allen. And then Jaden Daniels was the other one. And the reason people seem to be down on Daniels was the frame. Could he be durable enough? Could he handle it? But then everybody was pointing to last year and saying, this guy was amazing last year. Like if this guy can do in the pros what he did in college, this guy is going to be an amazing quarterback and durability is question.

Did this exceed what you even thought, like whatever you had as a ceiling for Daniels coming in? What's happened this year? Did you see any version of this happening? Not this version, man. I mean, I'll go back to what I said last year before the draft. If you're dropped on this planet and you could only base your evaluation off of one year of tape, like the 2023 season.

Jaden Daniels was clearly the better prospect, right? Yeah. But throughout the process, there was Jaden Daniels at Arizona State, which was kind of this running around backyard football, all about his legs. Occasionally, he'd pop a pass down the field. And then he got to LSU. And even early on there, like I remember being on the field with Brian Kelly before the...

The Tennessee game. OK, and Tennessee came in big favorites and they wound up blowing out LSU in that game. But I remember being on the field with him and watching Jaden and having watched his tape and just saying, like, what do you see in practice that I'm not seeing? Because it looks like he can make all the throws, but he just doesn't seem to trust it. And the anticipation isn't there and all that. And he said he said, watch the first play of this game.

Just watch because we're forcing him to make this throw. I'm not going to tell you where it's going, but we're going to force him to make this throw because we're trying to prove to him that if you just trust your read and your eyes and you get the ball out on time, you're special. You're different than anything we've been around or seen. And so the first play of the game comes. And of course, I'm on the side like peeking over. And it's a it's a deep comeback route to the left to left side.

And he gets back top of his drop and just rips it.

And if it gets picked, it's a pick six. And at that point, he hadn't thrown an interception. And everyone in the local media was just, oh, this Jaden Daniels is great. He hasn't thrown an interception through five games. How good has he been? And Brian's point was, I can't wait for him to throw an interception. Like, it's driving me fucking crazy. The media is talking about the interception thing. But the reason he's not trusting is he's so concerned about throwing a pick. So anyway, ball comes out, perfect throw, right on time, completion.

And you saw it there. Like that was like the first step in his confidence. Like, you know what? If I trust what I'm seeing in my instincts, I can build from here. And he just kept getting better. And then the following season was 2023 and he just took off.

It's funny that we've, and you know, I'm in my mid fifties now and it still doesn't feel like we figured out evaluation of like the best basketball prospects, quarterbacks. Um, I think when we get to like, you know, like Abdul Carter pass rushers, we have a pretty good sense of like, yeah, this guy's probably going to come in and be really good. But the quarterback thing, so much of it seems to depend on situation, what your college experience was.

Where are you going into who your coaches, when you get there the first couple of years. And I think of like the situation Daniels was in versus what Drake may was in where he's like F minus offensive line, no receivers, uh, the worst coach is possible. And he's just running for his life for four quarters. And then Daniels who had kind of an overqualified offensive coordinator, a good head coach, a lot of veterans around him, a team that trusted him. He had five years in college, uh,

And all that led to like something really good. But then he got hurt. What? Five weeks, six weeks in, he took a hit. Didn't seem like he was the same for fighting. That's like, well, this is why we were a little nervous. Could his body hold up? Now I'm thinking about picking them to beat the Eagles. And he, like, he looks that good compared to what we're watching. And I want to talk to you about what's going on with Hertz too.

But it does feel realistic that he could just win three straight playoff games in a row. And I don't like for a rookie quarterback to do that. Is that inconceivable to you? It is inconceivable because history says it doesn't like it's almost impossible to happen. Right. Right. Like what he's doing now, Bill, is it's so far beyond what you can that you're allowed to expect from a rookie quarterback. Like I went back and looked, right.

No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl, right? Right. There have been five others who have led their team to a conference championship. And I want to rip off these names for you. Sean King. Yeah. Ben Roethlisberger. And I want you to think back when they actually were rookies. It was game manager Ben Roethlisberger. Correct. Joe Flacco. Same deal. Mark Sanchez. Brock Purdy.

Now I want you to think about what we just saw last week. And then there's a whole other list of guys in their second year. Six of them since 2000 have actually, in their second year as quarterbacks, have led their teams to a Super Bowl. Brady, Roethlisberger, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Joe Burrow, and Purdy. I would say of that group, Burrow probably carried more of the offensive load on his shoulders than any of those other guys. I mean, Brady back then, we were protecting Brady.

Brady wasn't close to Brady in 2001. And so then you think about what Jaden's doing and under pressure and not just beating the pressure with his legs, but with his arm. And then you think about the vast majority of the run plays too. I think this kind of goes unnoticed. In the NFL, with how quick the defenses are and how fast the action of play is, he's having to make reads in the run game too with his own read option and all the possibilities there. So every snap,

He is making decisions that a rookie quarterback usually doesn't have to have that much load put on them. And he's doing it at such a ridiculous level. That's why this is by far, I think by far in my lifetime, the best rookie quarterback performance I've ever seen. And CJ Stroud, it was awesome, but this is different, man. And the supporting cast is not to the level that it should be for a rookie quarterback to have this success. And honestly, honestly,

I like Washington. I'm going to go with them. I think I am special. I think something special is happening. And I trust here's the weird part. I trust him more than I trust Jalen hurts. So that's, I have this playoff manifesto with all these rules. And one of the rules is you really got to look at the quarterbacks, look at both sides, imagine betting on the game and just going down the four quarters with each guy.

And I want to talk about Hertz in a second because the stuff that's going on with him is alarming. And there were some really good videos and pieces about it in the last week. The Daniels piece, you listed, we talked about this last week on my pod, just like the Brady 2001 and Mahomes, his first full year. And I think the Mahomes, his first full year is the only real comparison that I can remember. Honestly, with Marino, who is amazing, but in the mid 80s,

He was probably on TV three times where we had football. I can't say I was like a Dan Marino expert. He would play the Pats or the Jets and you would get one of those games, maybe. But Mahomes, we were there for him.

And he was good enough to win the Superbowl that year. And they got really lucky. Like the D Ford's jumped off sides or the Pat or Brady throws an interception. The Pats lose that game. Mahomes would have gone on the Superbowl that year. Burrows. Another one that I think felt like he was arrived and ready to go. And he was going to be in our lives for the next 15 years. And I just think Daniels hit that point. Even before the Detroit game, it was just clear. He was going to be in our lives. The part that was amazing to me is that.

It felt like Detroit could have run for 10 yards of carry. I'm sure they're looking at the tape going, how did we lose that game? Yeah. How did we ever not score a touchdown every time we had the ball? So now I look at Philly and it's like, all right, are they just going to rush for 300 yards? Maybe Hertz doesn't have to do anything, but I don't, I don't like trusting QBs who are playing like shit and he's playing like shit. He is. It's going to be interesting. Like, I don't want to go too deep in the, in the mud, but like,

Please do. We're here to go in the mud. Philly lives on first down running the football. Yeah. I think I've read like 71% of the time on first down, they've run the football in the postseason. And it was damn near that close in the regular season. It's all about staying on schedule. And I think in part because they don't trust their quarterback. Right? Yeah.

Because if we're in third, they're one for 11 on third down conversions in the postseason when it's third and seven or longer. What does that tell you? You know what I mean? How about the explosive plays he's missed in the two games? Yes. Where he's had A.J. open deep and just like either threw it out of bounds or was late on the throw. That safety he took.

against the Rams in the second half was one of the worst quarterback plays of the year. It was unbelievable that that happened. That's what would happen if, you know, if it's like somebody who's replaced Deshaun Watson on the Browns, like that kind of level quarterback. It's not this Jalen Hurts has been to a Superbowl. Like the one thing. And the other time when he knocked him out of field goal range, cause he took a sack, right? This is like basic QB shit. Like don't,

don't make your situation worse. Like just get out of it. He can't even seem to do that. So, and I think the Eagle fans are really aware of it, but also feel like they can rush for 330 yards on Sunday. Right. And they could, I mean, they, they could, but I also like Washington has gotten to the point where they're one of the top teams in the NFL, the last like second half of the season and in the post season with a run blitz on first down. So like it could become a war of,

all right, when does Philly take a chance, play action first down, and can Jalen cash in? Yeah. You know, and again, if you're betting on Jalen, is that the bet you want to make? Well, so if you're making the case for Washington, and I think I'm going to make it when I do million-dollar picks. What's the spread in that game, by the way? Is it eight? It's up to six and a half, yeah. Oh, six and a half. And it'll probably be seven. Who knows? Okay.

You figure it'd be the same recipe at the day against Detroit, where each side's going to have seven possessions. We're going to take our time. We're going to move the ball down the field. Every fourth and two, fourth and three, we're going for it. We're going to complete 70% of our passes. The clock's going to be moving, moving, moving. We'll hang around. Maybe we're up 10-7 in the second quarter. Philly has a turnover. Now we have the ball again. Now it's 17-7, 13s. Now Hertz has to start making plays. Right. Yeah.

And that's their scenario to win the game, which is very similar to the Detroit scenario. The Eagles scenario is just, we're up 10-0. We're running the ball. We're chewing up clock. Daniels comes out. We get like one stop. We rush through the middle. We get, and now all of a sudden it's 13-0. And now we can just run the ball, run the ball, run the ball, play action. We're home. So I see the two sides. I just feel more comfortable with Daniel's side.

Yeah, especially with that number. Yeah, because it feels like either team can win the game. So if that's the case, I'd rather just take the six and a half. I'd love to see Washington jump them early. Yeah. You know, a quick strike early in the game, kind of knock Philly back on its heels. Yeah, I just think momentum's crazy. Confidence is like...

is so much of this. And we've lived through it our whole lifetime. Like when teams get on a run, forget the seeds, forget the Vegas spreads. Like there's something about that momentum and like the belief in what we're doing. And it just feels like Washington has that. Now, again, they could walk into a buzzsaw,

Philly jump gets out and has a big play early on. And now, now they can run the football and get a lead. But, but I just, I don't know. Something special is happening and happening in Washington. And I don't want to be on the other side of it anymore. Well, were you in Massachusetts during the Oh one Pat's run?

Uh, Oh one, the first Superbowl. Yes. I just moved back from New York. I lived in New York. I went to school at Richmond, lived in New York for two years. I came back just honestly, I think five, six months before. So I was there for the whole run. Yeah. It felt like, and it was a little similar where it was an out of nowhere thing. It seemed improbable. They were big underdogs each. I mean, they were even bigger underdogs than Washington is. And the snow game was the one that

officially flipped the narrative. It's like, wait, what's going on here? And then they went into Pittsburgh. They got, you know, a couple of special teams plays. There was some Pittsburgh turnovers and it was just chip on their shoulder. The only people that believe in us are in this locker room. And Washington definitely has some of that. I think the difference is Daniels is just way ahead of where Brady was. Brady game manager, really smart. Didn't turn the ball over.

But he wasn't really Brady until, I think, 2005, 2006 range when they really started leaning on him. Yep. This Daniels thing, to lean on a rookie where he's basically, the offense is hinging on him, it's pretty unusual. I will say, though, Ekor being back...

And them having two running backs now and just like, it just feels like they can run the ball a little bit. And Eckler looked like he had juice, right? Yeah. No question. Like a couple of years ago, like, you know, when he was, when he was in his, I don't want to say prime, but when he was at his peak, it kind of, a couple of his runs, I was like, Oh shit. Like Eckler's back. Right. Well,

We were talking last week on the show and we were trying to figure out could Washington win this game. They had a really weird season where they looked really good the first few weeks. Then they had Daniels got hurt.

They had a couple injuries. The Hail Mary game was lucky. And they kind of like, they weren't stumbling through the middle of the season, but they looked like they were like a rabbit team. The team that looks good for the first two, two and a half months. But then like the last month of the season, they kind of went back to where they were in September. And then it just kept going and going and going. So you could think that. You could also think,

They easily could have lost the Tampa of Tampa just converts a second and one and makes three more plays and is up four with two minutes left. Um, but I'm with you. Like sometimes with football, um,

You get this momentum that's going. I guess the question for me on the, in the other conferences, does Buffalo have that too? Or Buffalo has had like the turnover stats with them are nuts where they've never had a game where they've had more turnovers than the other team, the whole season. Everyone else has done that as well in the Superbowl, the game last week, it did. They just have a habit of the other team just shoots themselves in the foot as they're playing them.

Um, so I wonder like maybe it could be a Buffalo Washington. Yeah. You should have seen this all along. This is, but this is what we've done all year. Why didn't you believe in us? The Josh Allen thing, like it's his time.

Oh, you're going there because I think I'm picking KC. Good, good. I want everyone else to. And you know what? It's kind of like when your mom says to your kid, how many times are you going to burn your hand on the stove? Yeah. And as life went on, I think I've come to realize I'm going to be the one who's going to burn my hand more. Going against the Chiefs, you mean? Yeah, and so maybe it's a me thing. But I don't know. Here's what the tangible thing that I think is different.

is the turnover aspect for for josh out i also i talked about with this with our guy ryan rusello yeah right after it happened what was it week 11 was it um kansas city buffalo right 30 21 they beat him i remember watching that game and waiting to see because they were up four buffalo was up four it's like every time an opponent has has a lead over kansas city in the fourth quarter

they get, there's always like that middle of the fourth quarter or like a little bit past the midpoint of the fourth quarter. They get a drive, the opponent does. And, and there's some level of conservative play, whether it's playing for a field goal, whether it's, it's dialing it back, not, not being aggressive. The mentality has to be we're down for, and that's what Buffalo did. It was, they've lost three games to them in the playoffs. They've, they've,

found out, found ways to lose. They've had games pulled away from them, all of it. I saw the kind of the

The switch in the mentality in that week 11 game, where we've got the ball, I forget exactly when they got it, maybe like six, seven minutes left in the fourth quarter. They're down by four. But if you didn't know the score, you'd say, oh, they're... I'm sorry, they're up by four. But if you didn't know the score, you would have said they're down by four points in this game. Because it's not by three. No, they're down by four is the mentality they had because they had to score a touchdown. And...

And they drove the field. They went forward on fourth downs. They were aggressive the entire time. And they put the game away. Because what teams do all the time in that fourth quarter drive is they take for granted. It's assumed. It absolutely has to be assumed that when Mahomes gets the ball, it doesn't matter how much time is left, they're going to score and they're going to score a touchdown. So if you play with that math, it was important for that game, but I also think it showed that the Bills get it.

They get that we can't turn the ball over. We can't give them extra possessions. And in the fourth quarter, we are full steam ahead, most important drive to save our season, even if we have a lead. And I just think the way Josh is playing, I think we're witnessing the best of Josh Allen in this moment.

And the best of one of the most talented players to ever play the position has got to be good enough eventually. Right. And this are there Manning Brady mid 2000s parallels for you with this when it seemed like Manning couldn't get over the hump against the Pats and then finally was able to do in the AFC title game after had a regular season win. But then he had to do in the playoffs and he finally did it. Absolutely. Okay. Yeah.

I am like, it's impossible to say I'm confident or I have any confidence in it with my homes and we know what they do. And, and like every good, good organization, they get their quarterback and they have drafted defense after defense, after defense. And if you put a great defense on the field, which is what has been Brett Veach, their GM and Andy Reed, their philosophy, like the second they got my homes and realized he was the guy. If you go back and study their drafts, it's like four of the first six picks defense.

Three of the first four, five of the first seven, six in a row defense. And they've loaded up on that side because the quarterback's going to take care of all the problems on the offensive side. So we've got to have a great defense because we don't have a fixer on that side. And so that's how they built this whole thing. But I look at Buffalo, and Buffalo, defensively, they're not as great as Kansas City is, but they've done a lot of the same things.

They they've sacrificed their offensive playmakers for D for their defensive talent. I think they're better up front in the defense than they maybe have been in previous matchups. I just, I don't know. I think it's their time. So I was thinking about, I should have said this on the pod. We did Sunday night after the game, I blew it. They, there was 93 seconds left when they went for the two point. And if Andrews catches it, it's 20, 27, 27, 27. And we left the game on, Oh my God, he dropped it. He blew the game for them.

Josh would add the ball with like enough time to go 40, 45 yards and set up some sort of field goal. And I almost wonder if that would have been a better outcome for the bills as we think about the game going forward, like instead of how they want it, where the narrative after the game becomes, oh my God, Baltimore, Lamar, he didn't come through in the first half and Andrews fumble and drops the two. And it was like, Baltimore blew it. Baltimore blew it. Baltimore blew it.

If Allen had just come down and gotten the game winning field goal or whatever in those last 93 seconds, I feel like we'd be talking about this Chiefs game differently. And by the way, he probably would have. Yeah, but I think Buffalo almost wants it that way, right? Right. They do seem like they're a chip on the shoulder. Yeah. They were doing a lot of nobody believed in us. I think they knew what the line was. Yeah. I thought Baltimore was the best team in the league. And I still kind of feel that way. Like, I don't regret picking them last week.

They lost, but I just thought they were really good. And all the errors were self-inflicted. The punch out on the Andrews fumble, that was a great play by Buffalo. Yep, that was. The two mistakes in the first half by Lamar were terrible plays by him. Yeah. He's good for those in these moments. That's been the problem. That's been the problem. That has been the problem. And for Allen...

You know, it's fun when a quarterback gets to this point and we've seen it throughout the course of history where they kind of have, he kind of has to win this year. He has to win this game. Like this is like the season. This is like, this is, this happens in basketball too. You have a season where a lot of stuff aligns.

This is it. I just really like the Chiefs. I still think they're really good. I don't feel like with the team that they were in the first 12, 13 weeks, I think they've solved some of those issues. They're a little more explosive than they were in September, October, November. They can run the ball a little better. I still believe in them at home. I just think they're so hard to beat. Kelsey's the whole deal. Kelsey's the whole deal. He's the whole deal in this game. If you go back and look,

Like he clearly has not been the player this year that he has been in the past. Yeah. You go back and look at those wins, the three times that the, the chiefs have beaten the bills. He's averaged nine catches per game, 96 yards and almost two, two touchdowns in those three games. Right.

The week 11 game that we were talking to, I want to see it two catches for eight yards. Well, they keep them in the garage during the regular season now. No, I get that. I get that. They put the cover over him. They put him in the heated garage with, especially this year when it was, is not, you know, I took a lot of heat for it, but I know I'm right. Like he was not in the shape that he's been in a lot of other years. It just wasn't like there. So they were like, they were getting him to this point. Had an awesome game with 117, right? Last week. So yeah,

Terrell Bernard did an amazing job in coverage on him. So that's going to be the matchup you want to watch in this game. The linebacker for the Bills the first time around. He also had the interception in that game. But they have some secondary issues this game. There's some guys who may or may not play and their secondary was already not incredible to begin with. Yeah. So, I mean, that to me, because when Mahomes gets in these games and these types of situations, like it's cute that we've got a burner and Xavier Worthy's here. Yeah. You know,

you know like all this all these other bells and whistles and all the things we want but he's going to rely on himself and travis i mean it's been proven yeah he would rather he would rather extend the play and dance around and do some things and wait for kelsey to find a soft spot versus in those moments in the big moments if you really watch he'll turn down opportunities with other guys

and say, I can create a little longer. I'm going to wait for Travis because we have to, when he has to have it, that's what he tends to do. So I think, I think Kelsey is going to be the key to this game and not, I don't stop breaking news, but like he, I think we kind of got lulled to sleep. Well, they, you know, they're winning games and Travis hasn't been huge this year.

But no, they wanted three games from him. That was it. I think that was the deal before this season. Are you going to be ready for the three games at the end of the season? Yeah. Are you going to be a nine for 99 with a touchdown each game? Let's take a break. I want to keep talking quarterbacks. All right. My guy, Drake May. I know you've been watching him. I just got a shoehorn just because you're here. I got a shoehorn three minutes of content. So I'm on a lot of Pat's text threads. We watched what happened in Washington this year.

Where very similar to the Pats right now, where they had, they drafted the franchise QB. They brought in a new coach. They brought in new leadership. They made a bunch of smart free agent signings. They did well in the draft. And they just basically patched together a playoff team that now has a legitimate chance to make the Super Bowl and it'll happen in a year.

The Pats, they have May. So you think like, think of last year's May season as like Daniels at OSU, basically like that kind of same thing. Now he's going to have his first real season, hopefully with a, on a real professional team, easy schedule. They have a ton of cap space. The most in the league. I assume they're going to spend money. The crafts really haven't spent money the last 10 years, but we'll see if they do it this year.

Fourth pick in the draft, top of every draft going, going down. They have two third round picks. Like why can't this be them next year? What are the reasons that can't happen? I mean, what Jaden has done is, is unbelievably unique and special, but it's Drake's second year and he has shown he's like, he's different.

That last year's quarterback class, man, when you go back and look at it, I'm just excited to see it develop. But like Pennix looked pretty good. Bo Nix, Bo Nix, there's a cap on Bo Nix. But he's definitely an average to above average starter. Yeah, and it's the perfect situation for him with Sean. But the whole group, you know, and now Ben Johnson comes to Chicago and, you know, that's a whole different conversation.

They're set up for that kind of success. I'm not saying make a Super Bowl run, but they are set up to be a surprise playoff team. To maybe be a 10-win team? To be a surprise playoff team next year. From a team that was a game away from having the first overall pick to maybe potentially making a run. Here's the hard part. I just talked about the defense, and Vrabel certainly will have his finger on the pulse and make the final decisions, but he will be pushing...

towards building a great defense with a great young quarterback. I figured he'll do the lines, right? He'll be like, let's start with the lines and we'll build out from both sides of the line of scrimmage. And we'll pluck a receiver here. We'll grab a retread running back there. And we don't need to put a ton of money in that right away unless they go out and get one of the, you know, the top free agents or make a trade at wide receiver. I don't even know that that's going to be their MO, but we'll see. But at the end of the day, like what we saw from Drake May is,

It was all you needed to see to have be resuscitated as a Patriots fan. Like there's, they have two assets in the entire organization. I said it it's Drake May,

And Gonzalez, a cornerback. And Vrabel now. Now we have three assets. I'm saying before the move, before they changed over, they had two assets. And I was screaming, protect your assets. Don't play them in that final game. You and I were texting. They should never have had the coach coach that game. Gerard Mayo should never have been in that position. But here we are. Now you've got the fourth pick.

And it's not all going to come down to the fourth overall pick. You know, if Abdul Carter was the fall to him at four, it would be, I don't want to say a miracle, but the odds are it's not going to happen. Right. They desperately, in my opinion, need one of the quarterbacks to fall to them. Cam Ward or... Yeah, so let's talk about that. Because right now it's a three-player draft.

unless Sanders can move up and get people excited and whet people's appetite and make it a four. Because it seems like Ward's higher than Sanders. And then Carter and Hunter. But right now, it's a three-player draft, drop-off. People start arguing who the fourth pick should be, which is bad for the Pats, I think. Yes and no. Because you're sitting there four. Tennessee has a quarterback need. Cleveland has a quarterback need. And Giants have a quarterback need. But Tennessee said they're taking the best guy. They said, like, who knows? That might be posturing, but...

Bill, how long have you been in this game? I'm not saying that they won't, and maybe eventually they will, but...

But since when has a team come out with the... In mid-January? Instead, if it's a generational talent, we're going to say... Yeah, okay, fair. That's NFL speak for, hey, come and get the pick. If not, we'll take your guy. Yeah. They want out of that pick. You know, just like the Patriots would have wanted out of that pick because they realize they're...

There is no Drake May in this class. There's no J.D. Daniels in this class. There's no Caleb Williams in this class, right? So...

So let's try to get out of this pick and let's build it like the rest, like Detroit had built it, like the Eagles have built it, like San Francisco did, like, you know, the Ravens continue to do. All the organizations building on defense and offensive lines, right? And so I think Tennessee is going to try to follow in that, in those footsteps and try to follow the blueprint.

And try to get out of that pick and get more picks in a draft where, yeah, those are the top three and they're elite players. But even in recent drafts, you could say there's better at those individual positions. So usually the quarterbacks drift up. And they will. There's this weird phenomenon that happens and then all of a sudden you've got two guys in the top four, even though there's been like the Trubisky year was a good example when that happened. The more people stare at the list and the quarterbacks and think about how important the position is.

All of a sudden, you start looking at the strengths instead of the weaknesses of the guys and the guys climb up. So I would assume that might happen. Yeah. One of two things is going to happen. Either both the quarterbacks are going to go to one of those three spots and Abdul Carter will go. And then Travis Hunter is your pick at number four. Unless you can move out of that to get additional picks. Doesn't seem like a variable pick.

It doesn't, right? They need a left tackle. They have to come out of the draft with a left tackle or a pass rusher, and that's it. For the Pats, it has to be one of those two. They need people who can block for Drake May. He's the only asset they have other than Gonzalez. So trade back with Vegas at six or the Jets at seven, you know what I mean? Yeah. Or the Saints at nine. Sure. And if one of those two quarterbacks falls, right? Yep.

That would be the dream scenario. I think the worst scenario is Cam and Shador go in the top three picks and Abdul Carter is gone as well. And now you're staring at Hunter who you don't need. Who's a wonderful, he is a generational type talent, but you're only getting them on one side of the ball for the vast majority, right? And you have him as a cornerback, right? I think he's actually a better wide receiver than he is cornerback.

But if you're going to try to play him and get value from him on both sides, you better play him as a cornerback and then put in some packages for him. That's going to be super fun if somebody decides to do that. I'm just glad that player exists because I remember...

after college or even during college when Deion Sanders, when I was in college and Deion had that capability of just coming in and playing series on offense, it was like the most exciting thing. I was like, Oh my God, this is amazing. I looked, I looked it up. Like, I think he had like 61 receptions his entire career. Deion did. Yeah. And that was the most like champ Bailey had like six receptions.

Charles Woodson had like two, you know, like, so there's not a, there's not a history of, of someone actually being like consistently, you know, that productive. Yeah. So last year's draft, uh,

Seems like it was almost a unicorn draft. Like the way we're going to look back at it, where there's just star players all throughout the first round. There's all we ended up with five starting quarterbacks. We ended up with potentially two, you know, maybe generational quarterbacks, maybe three, if Caleb can get his shit going. Yep. And then this year's draft. I haven't seen anything from JJ yet. Who's got right. Arguably the best. Oh yeah. Yeah. Um,

And then this year's draft, like you look at Cam Ward, you look at Sanders, where did they go in last year's draft with the tape they have and like the grade they have for this season? Are they in that like Pennix Knicks level? Are they JJ level? Are they below Pennix? Like, where are they? I think, I think the conversation starts at four with, with JJ.

Okay. There's no conversation with, with Caleb Jaden or, uh, or Drake. Okay. I think it starts at four. Most teams had JJ McCarthy is the fourth. Some teams were higher on him than others and believe that he was maybe the second or third best quarterback in the class. I, I didn't, I didn't, I thought he was the fourth best. Um,

I think, see, the interesting part is this. The best pure passer in this draft is Shador. Layers the ball, ball placement, good instincts as a passer, processes things real quickly. Doesn't have a great arm. Not a very good, the weird part is he's Coach Prime's son. He's not a great athlete. Like, he extends plays, but his instincts in the pocket get him in a lot of trouble. Hmm.

Um, and then you've got cam who doesn't, I don't want to say he doesn't process it as quickly, but he's been in these systems where he hasn't had to go through all the reads. Um, I don't think he can get himself out of trouble as a rookie in terms of understanding where to go with the ball. He's not as like consistent with his accuracy. He makes more poor, just he'll make a player to a game where you're like, Oh no, like we'll love this type shit. Right. Oh no. Yeah. The Levis word.

But he's a better athlete than Shador. He extends plays. His arm angles, the way he's able to get the ball out, he's got a much better arm than Shador. So traits-wise, Cam is the guy if you can develop him. But if you're asking compared to last year's class, I think it may go J.J. McCarthy for...

And then, and then I would say Cam Ward Penix and then Shador kind of Bo Nix like in that range. So if Darnold had been really good down the stretch and let's say they lost in round two, but he was good in that game and it wasn't his fault and it turned into a situation, Minnesota should have resigned him.

They should actually bring him back and trade JJ. That's a smarter move. You think JJ has the kind of talent that you could have traded one of the four picks in the top four for JJ and that's a good trade compared to who's in the draft? Okay. Yeah, I think so. And I think it probably, it could have happened that way, but I don't know that Minnesota would have even gotten rid of him. I think they would have sat on both. Had he played great down the stretch.

It would, it was shaping. I'm, I'm, I'm actually frustrated because it was shaping up to be one of the most fascinating personnel decisions you could ever make. Yeah. It was like a, like a poor man's young versus Montana type of situation. Right. It's like, what do we do? We have two guys, but the problem is with the salary cap, like,

You're now preventing your organization from building everywhere else by keeping Sam. But then are you going to gamble? You have this sure thing. If he goes and plays well, like you said, two playoff games, they lose, but he's through for 260, 270 and everything. He's 27 years old or whatever he is. It's like, all right, we got a guy. We got our guy.

And so that would have been unbelievable to watch. It's amazing what two games did to his value, you know? Yeah, now he's going to be like Giants, Tennessee, some sort of stopgap somewhere else. It'll be interesting to see how much money he lost, too.

That was the most wrong I've been about anything all season. I completely believed by week 17 with the Vikings. I was like, I'm in on this team. I believe in Darnold. This team's going to beat Detroit. Why is everyone overlooking him? No one wants to talk about him. I was the same way. I saw that video of them carrying him, picking him up in the locker room after I was like, I'm all in. You've won me over. And then he just turned into a pumpkin. It was unbelievable. Unbelievable. So...

Your mock draft has come in February 10th, your first one? I think so. That's what we're looking at, yeah. Not that far away. No. Is there, we can spoil one thing in the mock draft. Is there a surprise guy for you that you're higher on than everybody else that you feel like you're going to be right and people just don't see it yet? Do you have one of those guys yet? I don't want to bore you with an offensive tackle, but it actually might be. No, let's hear it. Josh Connerly from Oregon.

Everyone's talked about this Will Campbell guy who's a guard tackle from LSU and Kelvin Banks, who's a really talented player from Texas. I think Josh Connerly might wind up being the best left tackle. You act like I haven't studied these guys copiously, hoping the Pats are going to take a left tackle. See Josh Connerly that high? I think he's up there. Wow. He's...

unbelievably athletic the way he moves he's gotten better with his hands i think he's got a chance to be a star from this class and nobody i haven't heard or talked to anyone who's who's quite as high on him as as i am so keep an eye on connor lee were you high on cole strange a couple years ago or no not as high as the patriots were yeah yeah okay good yeah we we traded out of the uh mcduffie pick

And then took him one pick in front of Carl Loftus. The rare double whammy Belichick down the stretch. So your dream scenario for the Pats would be somehow move out of that four pick, get into the 9-11 range and take Connerly. You think he goes that high? I think more like, I think he winds up going mid-first. But if people see what I see, then maybe he goes somewhere around 10.

And the receiver class is a disaster this year compared to last year, which was like a pretty historic run of dudes. We've had, we had a historic almost decade of run, run of, of wide receivers like every year. Yeah. Five first round, almost surefire. Like a lot of them, you know, like all those Alabama guys, like, you know, when you look at them and then Ohio state guys and the LSU guys, like all from like five programs of the vast majority.

It's not like Ted Arroa McMillan from Arizona is really talented, but, but I don't, you know, I wouldn't put him out. He's not like Jamar chase, you know, I see him mocked at like four or five. And I just, I have a hard time going that high on Luther burdens, a burner, but drops a lot of passes, inconsistent. The best wide receiver in the class is Travis Hunter.

And after that, I think there's a lot of guys you like late in the first and second round, but I don't see the value where you're going to have to pick for them. I just don't see. Last year was nuts. Like even think like Bowers, right?

who is probably going to be the best tight end of his generation if he doesn't get concussed 17 times because he tries to take on nine tacklers every time he catches the ball. But that guy is going to be the next guy, it feels like. Yeah, he is the next guy. Yeah. And how about Ladd McConkie? Yeah, right. Pat's straight out of that pick.

Pats took the 10th wide receiver to not receiver draft. It was great. Although, don't you feel like, like I watched what Washington did where they basically, they got this coaching staff and they overpaid for their assistance, right? They got overqualified dudes at different and they coach guys up. Whereas the Pats went the other way and had a terrible coaching staff, but don't, aren't some of these guys sound like,

is Polk really like, he's just not going to ever be an NFL player. He's not salvageable at all. Can you lose your confidence to that degree? Cause he was, he was good last year. Like nobody thought he was going to be a bust. I just don't, I don't understand the concept of can a coach and a coaching staff, like bring resuscitate a guy back to life. Is that even possible?

Yeah, it's possible. It's possible. But damage gets done as a rookie. It really does. And it's hard to overcome that. Sometimes it takes a change of scenery and sometimes that's not even enough. I just look at what Adam Peters did at Washington from the hire of Dan Quinn to the coordinators to Jaden was the easiest decision he had to make. How about Mike Sanderstrom? Right.

Two interceptions. Drafting him as a rookie. Yeah, what round was he? He was... He wound up going second. Yeah. Yeah, he wound up going second. Yeah. Yeah, the Daniels one, I mean, obviously that was a huge topic with the Pats fans.

Because it seemed like there was a stretch there where it seemed like Washington might take Drake May. And then it's like, okay, I'm going to talk myself into Daniels. And he's a little older. And he's maybe not durable, but holy shit. And people in my life who love college football and like Van Lathan who loves OSU was like, Daniels is incredible. Like if you guys got Daniels, it'd be a miracle. So you had that. The conversations I had with a lot of NFL teams was like, you guys in the media are missing. I remember in like...

about this time last year. They you-guised you? You-guised us. You-guised me, yes. We're having real conversations and fights in our draft room. When we get together our meetings, we just had a January meeting. It's a war in our room.

about Jaden versus Caleb wars and a lot of teams I talked to you know at the end before they saw the product on the field this year so it's not like you know revisionist history we're like yeah we would have taken Jaden so now if it's a redraft is Caleb third on everyone's board or is he second he's third you think I think he's 10 I do

And probably Daniels has to be first. Daniels first, May second, then Caleb. Daniels has won this argument, at least for now. Now he's in this different argument of like, who would you want with the ball with five minutes left in a playoff game if it's not Mahomes? Is it Daniels second, third, or fourth? Is there a fifth quarterback in the NFL that you would take over Jaden? I saw that conversation the other day. Yeah.

Yeah. Would you rather have Burr or Jay Danos? Would you rather have Herbert or Jay Danos? Like, yeah, he's already graduated. There is the second year thing. Like Stroud, Stroud,

grinded through it, didn't have as much protection, all that. So they've got to avoid the second time around. Team's having a full offseason to study his tendencies. If he gets through his second year and is playing at this level, then we're in the clear. And you don't worry about him physically at all over the course of 15 years? Of course I do. Do me a favor at some point when you have a Freeman moment on your hands this week.

I think I told Saru to you about this too. You got to go on Twitter. There's just like Jaden Daniels Looney Tunes. Someone put together a great reel of him. Of all the times he just got popped? It's one thing to get popped, but the way his body parts are just flailing everywhere because he's so lean and long. It's hysterical. It's worth a laugh. Yeah, it concerns me.

We were always worried about Lamar, but Lamar always seemed like he knew how to take a hit. Then some guys just know how to do it. Jaden pops up so many times. He's so flexible and that's just who he is, but he hasn't learned that yet. Like he, you know, it was bad at that initially was Brady.

Brady took some smacks his first couple years where he just got... And Drake May last year took like three or four horrible ones. Yeah, Brady figured it out. Yeah, that's the whole thing. It's flexibility. That's why the Brady Quinns and the guys who are like Tebow's

Yeah. I just, I can't. Will Levis. Yeah. The dudes who look awesome with their shirt off and look like they can outbench Rosillo are the ones I really worry about. Nobody can outbench Rosillo. What are you talking about? Yeah, I know. Have you seen him lately? He's fucking massive. Just ask him. Just ask him. Jesus. Do you think Brady screwed up

everything for all of these old quarterbacks going forward where we decided this was realistic because Tom Brady did it. And now we're just going to have this generation of guys in this Rogers cousin stage in their late thirties where they just suck. And we're like, no, no, Tom Brady did it. I really feel like he fooled even me. I picked the Rogers to, you know, win the AFC East this year. Now it's like, oh yeah, it's really hard to play quarterback when you're 39 and your body's breaking down.

I went to that Patriots-Jets game. I brought my son. To see him live in person now compared to what he was two years ago, like the MVP-level version of Aaron Rodgers, it was scary. And to see Drake May before the concussion and how mobile and in control he was, it was like, oh, so that's next and that's done. Yeah.

That's my two takeaways. Like that's next. That's done. And yet somebody will probably sign Rogers. So I'm guessing there'll be one more year. I feel like he's going to be like one of those boxers that needs to get knocked out two more times before they finally hang it up. Yeah. I could see him wanting to, I just don't. Why would you invest that and bring in that? I'm not saying I would. I just feel like how many dumb teams do we have? We just watched the Jaguars.

do two weeks of coach interviews and then fire their GM. This is like seven, eight just horrifically managed franchises. Yeah. So yeah, I think Rogers could play somewhere. Oh, I'm not saying he won't. I agree with you. I'm just saying, why would you?

With all the, with everything that comes with it too. You know, I don't know. Yeah. That's the other piece. Yeah. All right. Todd McShay. First mock draft, February 10th. You can listen to the McShay show. We're heating up toward the draft. Can't wait for all your takes, all your thoughts. Good to see you. Thanks for coming on finally. All right, my man. I'm glad to join you. I appreciate you having me in this, this, this ringer gig. I'm loving it. It's been great. We love to have you. Thanks. Thanks, man.

All right, taping this part late Thursday afternoon. Joe House is here. He is dressed almost like a Washington Commander's NASCAR driver. There's this Washington stuff everywhere. You're getting a colonoscopy tomorrow. You're drinking the colonoscopy juice.

There's been fireworks in the house house. This is the most action-packed million dollar picks we've ever had. Your team might make the Super Bowl. Yeah. I mean, first of all, you see all this gear, what I have on, what's behind me. You're going to see none of that when I'm in Philadelphia this weekend. This is the last time you're going to see any of this stuff because I am not catching any hands when I'm up there. I'm not looking for it, right? I'm too old for that smoke. We're too old to wear the visiting team's merchandise. We can't do it. Definitely.

Definitely not in Philly. You support the team. There we go. Root silently and hope you don't get punched. Also, if you do get in a fight in the stands, though, make sure it's to somebody who's below you. This is the Rosillo technique. Great. The guy in the higher ground always wins in the football things. Anyway, don't punch House. He's a great guy. I try my best not to get punched. I mean, if beers get poured on me, that's fine. I'll go with that. But I will tell you on the subject of the procedure, my screening procedure, this...

You know, health path that we're on, you can tell how unimaginable it was that I would have something football related in my life this weekend. I mean, I scheduled the colonoscopy months ago, right? Because I look at the calendar like, oh, sure, it's conference championship day.

weekend. That's fine. I mean, I'll be playing conference championship. No, this turned out to be the Dan Snyder colonoscopy. You're, you're releasing off the Dan Snyder feces and toxins out of your body. Yeah. It's symbolic. Really? Yeah, it really is. All of it's coming out. I can tell you that much. In fact, if I, we might have to take a break, uh, 10 minutes in here.

All right. Well, the listeners slash viewers will never know. We'll just do a nice clean edit and you can come back with a nice happy look on your face. As clean as my colon, hopefully. We didn't do well on Million Dollar Picks last week. We lost $585,000, but we're still up $1.282 million for the year. I'm okay with what happened last week. I would take Baltimore again. And your team, we kind of had to see it.

I wish I took last in. I didn't have the balls. I just did it. I didn't have the balls to take a rookie QB against a team that felt like they were going to run all over you, which they basically did, but it didn't matter because they turned the ball over five times. Yeah. Yeah. Turnovers are the story of this last round. There's so many, there might even be turnover in your pants. Um,

There's so many stories this week about turnover battle, like the bills, 21 straight games where they haven't lost the turnover battle. Like has it happened since 1960? Um, that there's all these good metrics for, if you, if, if you look like this bills team, just with turnovers, you end up winning the super bowl. Chiefs haven't turned the ball over in two months, this round, the last four teams, none of them have a turnover. And I just wish,

I wish I wasn't saying it this way, but it's almost as reductive as at least with the Chiefs-Bills game. Whoever doesn't turn the ball over is probably going to win.

I feel stupid saying it, but I think it's true. Well, the two aspects of it for sure that all four of these teams have an advantage is taking sacks. These quarterbacks not taking sacks and these teams being on the correct side of the turnover margin. Both Washington and Philadelphia arrive for their matchup plus six, the exact same number through these playoffs. And nobody would have forecasted this for Washington, I don't think. I mean, that's what's...

truly remarkable and and for sure i think the handicap that we now by the time uh on sunday on the ringer pregame show in advance of the yes indeed i thought that nine and a half points i finally was i had the balls to say it the detroit favored by nine and a half was goddamn disrespectful you didn't have the balls to say it when we did million dollar picks oh good i couldn't remember

No, you were like, you were being cute. You're being cute about it. I think you deep down knew your team had a real chance. Um, I'm a little annoyed. Let's go back because you haven't been on the pod since Washington wins this game. Top five sports moment of your life.

Absolutely. Yes. Yes. Unquestionably? I would say unquestionably because of how far we've come, how unexpected it was. I mean, I feel now like it's a bad analogy coming on here every single week and saying to you that if we wrote this story,

script out, if you wrote real life as it's occurring and said, this is a script about a football team, every production house would turn it down, say, this is

This is trash. Like a sports movie. They dumped their terrible owner who hated the fans, who almost like ruined football in an entire city that loved football. And then the new guy comes in, new coach, new GM, new QB, and they just go on a winning streak. Well, not just new QB, possibly the greatest rookie in the history of the football game. I mean, there was a few of those stories this week.

I mean, we were there for Marino. Marino is pretty great. Now, granted, we, you know, we only got to see him a couple of times, but yeah, but the Daniels playoff wins to it. Pretty nuts. There's a lot to cover with this game. The Washington piece. I can't shake. There's some 2001 Pats parallels. Oh, and watching your excitement with this.

The Pats, they were like five and five after 10 games. And then they didn't lose again. And at some point, weird shit started happening. Leading to the snow game, which was like, that was when they finally pulled us in. And none of the Pats fans wanted to believe. And it's like, no, no, believe. We had like weird Brady Bledsoe stuff. You know, Bledsoe got hurt. It was an up and down season. We had that with the defense and the coaching. You have it with your offense. But you guys are 14 and five.

He hasn't won eight straight games. It's not like, they're like, oh my God, what's Washington doing here? Like at some point, Washington's just good. And I'm really leaning toward taking them in the game, not just with the points, but outright. I really think they can win. And we'll get into the Philly stuff in a second, but

Let's just get that out of the way. I don't think this is fluky. I think that Daniels has been that good. The coaching has been that good. The guys over and over again, you've had like these semi miraculous wins, these comeback wins, these fourth quarter wins. And there's a mojo that develops that I think devises magicians. I picked against Washington the last two rounds. Understandable. I'm tired of doing it. Like at some point you got to accept what's going on and something is going on.

It does feel like something is going on. I mean, I can't view it from my unbiased, in an unbiased kind of way. And for sure, the sum of all of these guys together believing is greater than the parts because you can't sit down and do X's and O's. You can't do advanced metrics. You can't.

use any of those things to truly capture the spirit of this team and the way these guys believe. And they just believe in that belief in each other. I mean, it's an incredible combination of veterans and rookies and the veterans, some guys that have been there before. Bobby Wagner's been there before. So for a defense that by all metrics, it's the worst unit on the football field come Sunday, but somehow or another, we keep

getting W's. They just keep getting W's, Bill Simmons. Yeah, you have, it's like the 30th defense DVOA against the run.

Your defense is basically what the 01 Pats offense was. Every week we were like, how are we going to score points? Like we have Jermaine Wiggins as a tight end. Our only good offensive player is Troy Brown. We have a rookie QB who they're terrified to have him really do anything. And each week we would just patch together points. And the same thing's happening with your defense, where it's like, how is this defense going to stop anybody? And you're just getting turnovers. But the thing is, it was like Detroit. Yeah, they had five turnovers. There was some bad plays.

Washington also made some good plays. Like that guy, that guy jumping the post route on the TD and the end zone. That was a good fucking play. Outstanding. Yes. Yeah. But the, the, the rookie Mike Sanders still had two interceptions. Uh, and I feel very proud of myself. And one of my threads with, with, uh, actually a guy, uh,

um, with the, with the team. I said, you know, this is part of the, the, the revelation, this guy, Sandra still the kid from Michigan. He's been unbelievable, but you know, it's a, he is for, for sure benefiting from the overall, uh,

gravitas of this defense. Dan Quinn can coach up a defense. He's got the spine. You have Jeremy Chin playing safety. You've got Frankie Louvu and Bobby Wagner where they are. And it does, they just really do believe. And look, they held...

Tampa to 20 points. And we watched that Tampa defense, I mean offense, go out and just post points on everybody. Now it did feel like if Detroit had stuck with the run that they might have been able to run for 250 yards in the second half and they might have won that football game, but they chose not to. And that kid who had at least some role in it is now going to be the head coach of the Chicago Bears. So good luck to them. Yeah, he got to stay in your conference. Their conference.

Well, you're, you're the Washington conference, the bears, Ben Johnson, get to play him. Um, the Washington piece of this big picture.

if they could actually win this game, where do the Eagles rank on most hated Washington opponents? They're not number one, but they're in the top three, right? Well, because we hate everybody in the NFC East. You hate Dallas the most, though. Yes, hate Dallas the most, for sure. It's mutual hatred amongst all of the franchises in the NFC East, and each team has their own which one they hate the most. I think the Giants hate the Eagles the most. I think the Eagles hate Dallas the most. I don't know, but...

For sure, Washington hates Dallas the most. Philadelphia, let's be real about it, wasn't really on the radar for a long time. Well, you've only played them once in the playoffs. It's like the weirdest rivalry that's not actually a rivalry. It felt like the last couple of years, it was more fun because you guys would have some good games. You beat them last year.

Well, it doesn't make, I mean, I'm not that surprised that Washington and Philadelphia have only faced each other in the playoffs once. Because that means both teams have to make it in and, you know, in their previous iteration. Well, when you think they've been playing football for 80 years, one time seems low. Sure, sure, sure. And Daniels is the most popular Washington athlete since I've known you. It's either him or Mernupal.

It's either him or George Rearson. I mean, you know, your all-time greats are John Riggins and, you know, there are several generations of Washington fans that didn't have football in their lives. So Alex Ovechkin ranks pretty high up in terms of Washington icons. Yeah, but...

Daniels is in the conversation. Let there be no doubt. Some old heads like me, like Wes Unseld and Elvin Hayes, but that's old head shit. Finishing last, Andre Blatch. All right. To get to the point where I want to have the balls to take Washington. No N'Kobe Dean. That's good. Yes. Here's the big thing.

do your thing about how you think hurts is hurt. Cause this is, this is the number one reason to take Washington is there is something wrong with Jalen hurts. The stats back it up, the eye test, back it up and his knee got bent backwards during the game. And they've been tight lipped about it. I don't think they tell us if he was hurt, but do your thing. Yeah. And, and we,

We watched it. It was a bad stretch and it was, you know, bad enough that we wondered, I wondered in the moment whether that was a tear, whether that was a ligament tear. It turned out it clearly was not a ligament tear because that would have been announced on Monday. But the discussion was,

all week has been we presume that Jalen Hurts is going to play we expect Jalen Hurts to to play I mean we watched the way that that knee bent and they definitely shot him up with something because his behavior in the interview after that game when he was with uh Saquad that was a version of Jalen Hurts that is not your your sort of standard issue post game you know right he's he

He had a kind of aura. Let's just put it at that. But look, if Washington only has to stop Saquon Barkley, preposterous kind of task that's in front of them. If Jalen Hurts isn't going to throw the football down the field, it takes him too long. We've been watching this now and I know you have the stats to back it up.

where for throws that are 10 yards or longer down the football field, it's just taking too long for him to get the ball out of his hand. And they're not throwing the ball anyway. And he's taking sacks, which he didn't take before. There was a great Twitter thread of all the worst plays he had in that last game. And it was just video after video. And I was like, Jesus, he looks like freaking Dorian Thompson Robinson. Like, what's this dude doing? You know, I really thought long and hard about the matchup.

Cause my instinct was take Washington and I didn't have a good week last week and I wanted to

I kept coming back to the total yardage, which I sent to you. There was a most rushing yards ever in the NFC championship game, the NFC championship game. The case for the Eagles, which I'm not against is that they're going to run the ball down Washington's throat. They're going to control the game and they're just going to have the ball time. You're only going to get like six possessions. One bad thing. You won't get a fourth and two. Maybe there's a tip pass turnover and all of a sudden the Eagles are up 10 and they went

The thing that's interesting to me is how few times in the title game a team has just run the ball down somebody else's throat. And I sent this to you just in the last 40 plus years.

Only one team in the NFC title game has gotten a 200 plus yards rushing. That was the Niners against the Packers in 2020. Other than that, we're talking 81 Eagles, 71 Cowboys, 80 Rams, 73 Vikings, 97 Packers. And then you get into that 169 to 196 range. And there's some more modern teams there. The Lions last year, the Seahawks in January, 2015, the Bears. And, but,

My point is it's unusual, like really, really historically unusual to rush for 200 plus in this second to last game of the season. So my question to you is how many yards are the Eagles going to have in this game? When you factor in Hertz is throwing for 130 to 150 yards a game that puts them in like the low three hundreds, which you get every week.

And the crucial thing for what you just shared in terms of Philly's approach is if Jalen Hurts can't run, go ahead and set Saquon Barkley's over under at 199 and a half yards.

If Washington can hold them under 200, I like Washington's chances. But 200 would be the, that would be one of the two best performances of the last 45 years. How about like 150? I don't know. Well, I don't, it's Saquon. He's been unbelievable. I mean, he just, he ripped, rips off 70 yard runs. But to me, the larger point is if Jalen, if that dimension of Jalen hurts is not on the table and we'll know within the first, you know, series, we'll see how he moves.

Um, if, if he is not a threat to run the football down, down the field, then that changes things, uh, immensely. And you know, I Washington, right? Like that, that long touchdown run he added in the first quarter last night. Take that away. If that threat isn't there, then it changes things. It tilts things for the Washington defense in the AFC title game. Nobody ever, no team has ever rushed for 200 plus yards.

The last team in the last, like the 99 Broncos rushed for 178. It makes sense. The 2015 Pats ran for 177. So it's just,

It's important to remember like, oh, Saquon's going to run all over them. Well, when we get to the final four, that's usually not happening in the way you think it's going to happen. And then if Hertz is going to look throwing the ball like he has the last few weeks and really like the whole season, I really liked watching him all season. And you know, it seems like you look at the stats and the advanced stats for him the last three years, it's not that far off. But then like the bundle wrote a great piece for the ringer today about the Eagles passing game. And it's like, they basically just kind of punted on it.

Yeah. And maybe try to take two shots a game, but other than a couple of Dallas Goddard plays, but for the most part, they're just trying to run the ball and control the clock. The question for me though, if you can hang around,

What we saw from the Eagles in that fourth quarter against the Rams, where all the, it just felt like the front four died. They started to get tired and the Rams are just moving the ball down the field on them. Their receivers are getting open. That's what Daniel, that's, that's what he does. Well, and here's the thing, Washington from the minute that they get the ball in the first quarter,

quarter is going to be playing no huddle up-tempo offense. Right. And that was four down offense to any fourth and two, four, three, they're going for going for every single one of those. Every series that Washington possesses, the ball will be a four down series in the sense that they're going to try if they're close at all. And they're not on the wrong side of like, you know, the, the, their own 30 yard line that they'll go for it. I mean,

And, you know, at some point, the cumulative effect of that on a defense. This is why, like, the Jalen Carter piece is significant. And Washington lost his best offensive lineman. Right. Yeah. We just watched it. But why?

We lost Sam Cosme. Now, you know, Washington in its own shrewd way is being coy about, you know, how they're going to play this. And there is a thought that Andrew Wiley might slide from the left side over to the right side. And he has played some right guard for Kansas City, but it was several years ago.

And, you know, they have talent on this offensive line. But really, it's a Kingsbury scheme thing that's been most impressive. So it's a huge loss to lose Cosme. But the Jalen Carter piece, yeah, man, he got tired. He made the play of the game.

I would say on a really bad play call, uh, McVay said that there was a miscommunication, um, and that, that, that led to, you know, right. I always watch for that with the, from a live bet standpoint, these teams that have these awesome pass rushes, the first two hours of the game in that fourth quarter, it gets a little different once the guys have been out there for three hours. One, you know, another time we saw it,

The last time Washington played Philadelphia, when Washington came back from down to scores, 36 points. Yeah. The most points anybody scored on this Philadelphia defense all season. So McShay and I talked earlier about how there's like been three Washington seasons. Basically you had that first stretch in the beginning when it was like, Oh my God, what's going on? Daniel's got hurt. You had some injuries. Eckhart got hurt. Like it's just, you didn't. And then all of a sudden you had your full team again and it came on, but you go back to that. You lost the Philly in week 11.

And from that point on Dallas week 12, you put up 412 yards, Tennessee, four 63 saints, three 26 Eagles and week 16, three 68 Atlanta week, 17, four 12 week 18 against Dallas throughout. Cause that was Mariota. It was a Mariota Tampa wildcard three 50. And then last week, Detroit four 81. So if you're taking a team on the road,

I want to, I want to make sure they can move the ball and everyone's like this Eagles defense. It's really good. It's the best defense in the league, but I think Washington can move the ball on them because we've seen them do it. And then the question is how special is Daniels? And that becomes the narrative out of this. Can, can he get there? There's a couple of playoff manifesto rules in play rule number three, but where the nobody believes in us team, but don't try to talk yourself into one either. I'm not sure they qualify anymore because it seems like this week there's some good discourse about

people believing in them. Last week, definitely nobody believed in them. The funny thing is that I feel like, you know, from the sort of national NFL media perspective, there's a lot of believers in Washington, but the market does not believe in Washington because this line opened at four and a half and it got slammed all the way up to its present six and a half spot. Yeah. And I think the general consensus is that

The Eagles are going to run all over them. Their defense will shut them down. And this was a nice congratulations, Washington, for making the NFC title game. But it's time to go home. Rule number six, never pick an underdog unless you genuinely believe that has a chance to win. I believe. I think it's I honestly believe I think either team could win. So with the plus six and a half, I believe I believe I don't know. I think they're going to win.

Rule number 14 was beware of any team that reminds you of the 2007 Giants. I'm going to add the 2001 Pats to this list. Okay, go ahead. Because I think there's something that happens with teams that get thrown together over the course of a season when they can get hot like this and some funky stuff happens. But when you think about, you go backwards, you think about the four and a half months with Washington and the Hail Mary and some of these games you pulled out of your ass. At some point, you develop like these...

winning scars almost. I agree with this. If they're hanging around in the fourth quarter and they're down three, I'm just, I'm going to be mad if I bet on Philly. Yeah. Go ahead. Do you have any more manifesto things? Yeah. Rule number 16. Take one last look at the quarterbacks. Remember, there's plenty of time to bet against any QB or coach. So this would really apply to Hertz because if it's like, wait till next round to bet against Hertz, that would go. But I mean, not only is Daniels the best quarterback in this game,

He has been out of control. I mean, he's 70% of his passes. Even if you look at like his last seven or eight, he's like 20 touchdowns, six picks. He'll have the one throw a game. Sure.

But he completes 70% of his passes and every fourth down and two and every fourth down and three, you just feel like he's going to get it. And, and incredibly, he just doesn't take sacks. He just doesn't take the Washington just doesn't get that setback thrown, thrown at him. Now I do want to,

if I can have a moment. Pour some water on some stuff? Pour some settle-down juice on the whole situation, right? Let's hear it. We're talking about an absolutely unprecedented situation

outcome first of all this is washington's fourth road game coming up here it's not unprecedented the pats well i guess the pats played their first game at home in 01 but the pats were 14 point underdogs against this or 13 point underdogs against the steelers and then 14 against the rams yeah so the starting point is fourth road game fourth game in a row in a row its own unique challenge

But here's the stuff. It's the rookie quarterbacks in conference championship games. Never talked about this last week. Yeah, I went five straight up, only one in four against the spread. Also, teams like Washington that were underdogs in the first two rounds and covered both of those rounds, one in five straight up.

Two and four against the spread when it comes time for the conference championship. And this one also underdogs in divisional rematches. So Washington is the underdog. It's a divisional rematch. Oh, and four straight up one and three against the spread. I mean, that's your settle down juice, right? It just there's no precedent for a team in Washington's position to actually win this game.

I think you can win. There's two scenarios. There's the scenario we laid out earlier where the Eagles just run the ball down your throat. You don't get a fourth and two. There's one turnover. You're down 13. You kind of know by the third quarter. Great run, guys. Great run, guys. Then there's the other scenario where the Eagles can't throw the ball at all.

Washington is just loading up on Saquon. The fans are frustrated. You get one turnover, one strip sack, something. Maybe you get a special team, something. And you're just hanging around, hanging around. And it can get to the fourth quarter where it's either tied, you're up three, you're down three, but you're in the mix of exactly where the Eagles fans don't want to be with this Eagles team.

And that's, that's it. It's one of those two scenarios. And I gotta say, I'm leaning toward a Washington plus six and a half. Let's, uh, we'll take a break and then we'll talk Casey Buffalo. All right. Coming back house house. Uh, the colonoscopy juice has not really kicked in. So that's a good sign for Washington. I think I was thinking about the last 20 minutes we just did is going to be hilarious. If you lose like 45 to 10.

It could happen. Remember the hope? The hope in their eyes? It would still be fine. I'm beyond, you know, any reasonable hope or expectation for this team, the franchise, what they've done. Those moments of joy. I mean...

I hate that Washington did what it did to Detroit of all franchises. You know, I bear no ill will towards Detroit, but they did shut that stadium up. I mean, it was silent in there and nothing would be more beautiful than doing that to the Philly crowd. But look, Philly might come out and just...

you know, put us on our backs and run the road sled right over us. It is possible. They have the best offensive line. It's an incredible offensive line that Philly possesses. What was the demeanor of Washington after the game? Was it like they won the Super Bowl or it was like two more?

I, something in between those two, because there could be like, we did it. Oh my God. And then there's a lot of enthusiasm. You know, there are, those guys are, are, they believe in each other. So they're coming out of both the Tampa game and that Detroit game. Like they're there, there's a swagger, but there's also for sure. Some, some exuberance that there'd be no doubt.

If you could take your colonoscopy juice stained underwear and mail them to Dan Snyder without getting arrested, would you do it? Oh, I mean, first of all, right now they're small stains. I sent you the picture. I would, I mean, what I would send Dan Snyder wouldn't be those. They're not nearly foul enough. Colonoscopy juice house. We've had drunk house, buzzed house.

Sober house. Now we have cold. Ask me juice house. Uh, chiefs bills. I just don't have a lot of, it's stupid to even talk advanced numbers of this game. I don't really know what to say other than the chiefs just win these games all the time. They've lost three times in the playoffs with my homes. We went through the losses last week. Uh, the only one where they really got their ass kicked was the super bowl.

They should have beaten the Patriots and we lucked out. Even the Patriots fans would admit that. And the Bengals game where Mahomes clearly got concussed near the end of the first half, that was what it was. Otherwise, they just win these games. The line is disrespectful.

Everyone's disrespected. The Bills are disrespectful from last week. They're trying to get the nobody believes in us. It's like, well, the Ravens were the best team in the league. Like there's a reason they were, they ended up being favored. It's going to come down. They are a nobody believes in this team. Do you agree with that? At least nobody believes in the bills. I feel like a lot of people are taking them this week. Okay. I mean, that line hasn't moved.

Open at one and a half, stuck right there at one and a half. But that to me says the Bills aren't a nobody believes in this team. They're playing on the road against a team that's been to four of the last five AFC title games. So they're only plus one and a half. Fair enough. I will say this. Let's see what happens when the public wakes up Sunday morning or, you know, Saturday night going into Sunday. Because right now this is just a professional market, right? Buffalo secondary looking a little banged up.

Not only looked, they are banged up. Both Christian Benford. I don't know if he practiced. I mean, you know, he had a concussion on the last play of the game against the Raiders. And Taylor Rapp was questionable with a hip injury. Yeah, I mean, there's serious issues in their secondary. So there's a working case for a Buffalo pick and there's a working case for a Chiefs pick.

The Chiefs case is partly what we laid out about the, this is just the infrastructure of what they do. This is the best mini dynasty we've had since the Pats. Combined with the fact that there's really two KCs now trying to play this 20 game season where every year they're playing 19 or 20 games and they're one way in the regular season and they're barely scraping by. And then around late December, they start. And then in January, they become a different team.

So that's why it's almost like you can't look at the numbers, but they're home. This is a game they should win. They hate the Bills. So there's all of that. And I really like their team. I think this is the best they've looked the last couple weeks. The case for the Bills is just Josh Allen grabs the torch from the host. And that's it. Because that's the only way they're winning. He could do it. He's got to fucking grab the torch. He could do it. Takes him, walks off a la Peyton Manning in 2006.

One of the things that the Texans showed us last week is that, you know, there was a bunch of supportive numbers for the idea that Kansas City's run defense was a dominant run defense. And then Joe Mixon got the ball and the Texans with their the most the weakest unit of that Texans team is their offensive line. And somehow they established the run and Mixon was really effective in

And the Texans out yardage the Chiefs, you know, by by by quite a bit. Like, you know, if the tech was a weird one, though, because they had the long kick return. So they had like and then a three and out. But they scored three points. I don't know.

Okay. I'm talking only about the ability to establish the run. But I'm saying they established the run. And Buffalo's offensive line is good. And if James gets cooking and, you know, Josh Allen, one of my favorite props of this week, especially with the quiet rush yards game that Josh Allen had. Now, he did get to 10 attempts.

over eight and a half attempts last week. That was a giant cash for everybody. I hope everybody listened to the ringer pregame show, but he, he was way under his yardage number. I do not expect him to be under his yardage number this week. This is a, by any means necessary, pull it all out, pull out every stop, pull it right out of your, your, your, your butthole. You know, nice, nice and clean Josh Allen. I think he's going to rush. I think 50 is a great number.

So I guess my question is, I really feel like Buffalo should have lost to Baltimore last week. And I know that pisses the Baltimore fans off. It used to piss me off as a Pats fan when we would beat somebody in the playoffs. Then people are, you shouldn't have won. You looked out, blah, blah, blah. And it's like, yeah, well, we didn't fucking turn the ball over and they did and we forced turnovers. So fuck you. So I get it. It's a fair answer. Um, I,

I just think Buffalo this whole season has looked a little better than they actually are. And the chiefs have looked a little worse than they actually are until recently. And one team I think has a little higher ceiling than the other team. Unless Josh Allen just says, watch this. He could. That's why the line's one and a half. That's why you get one and a half for being at home. It's a perfect matchup. I just like the chiefs infrastructure. Like there was that moment in the Houston game last week.

When all of a sudden Spag's dialed up all those funky blitzes, right? He's like waiting, waiting, waiting. He's like, bam. And he just went after Stroud and fucked up a whole Texans drive. There's some institutional knowledge of how to win these playoff games that I just don't want to bet against.

And if Buffalo beats them, so be it. I totally agree. I mean, that has to be the approach, right? Like, why would we put ourselves through the mental gymnastics to get to a spot where we say like definitively, affirmatively, yes, the Bills are going to win this game and the points and all, you know, we'll grab the points and the Bills is the case to make.

you have to work so hard. It's the simple case. It's the case you just made. Josh Allen does the thing, does the superlative superior thing. And that would be awesome. And I'll be fine with losing my money if he does it. I'm not kidding, but I'm not betting against, I'm not betting against the chiefs. Just not going to do it. Not at this number, not at this number that they've won and covered every single time in the playoffs where it's been under three in this neighborhood. Yeah. Sign me up. We talk about this. Well, we did it last year. We bet against,

the Chiefs against the Ravens in the AFC title game. And it was a never again. Never again. Lesson learned. It was for me, at least as long as Mahomes is

In his prime, and as long as the Reed coaching infrastructure and they have a good enough team and they have Kelsey or somebody like him. I just don't want... I didn't like the feeling of being like, why the fuck did I bet against the Chiefs? So they're going to have to lose before I stop doing it. It's a little bit of us staying at the blackjack table too long, but I also...

Mahomes is in his late 20s. No, yeah. And respectfully, it wasn't we. You didn't have me on million dollar picks for that Ravens-Chiefs game. But you also had the Ravens. Oh, no, I did not. You had the Chiefs? Did you zag it? It was four and a half or five points. It was preposterous. Yeah, that line was crazy talk. Playoff manifesto. Really nothing unless we want to create a manifesto rule for the Chiefs. They might deserve their own rule.

Rule number 17 is don't try to be a hero. Just try to win money. And that really applies to the Josh Allen thing. It's like the Josh Allen scenario. It's like, don't try to be a hero. What's going to, are you really ready when it's third quarter and it's 19 to 17 chiefs and they have the ball and they're driving or you'd be kicking yourself. Uh, there was a rule I proposed last year that I didn't really adopt, but maybe I should new rule. What does the NFL really, really, really want to happen? Hmm.

This is very funny in view of what we watch out of the referees in that Houston game. Wow. And it's been a big topic. Has it? They really love the Chiefs. On the other hand, with like a Buffalo-Washington Super Bowl or Buffalo, like I just feel like the one Super Bowl matchup that everybody's going to be like, oh, what the fuck is Casey Philly?

Right. That'll be the one where they're like, ah, we already did this. Come on. Good though. We did. I know, but we already did it. It's still pretty good. Every other matchup. Super fun though. Washington, Buffalo, Washington, Kansas city.

Buffalo, Philly, every version of that is fun. The KC Phillies, both of them have won Super Bowls within the last 10 years. They've already played each other. I just can't get that excited about it. I still don't like watching Phillies offense. But as fun as Barkley is, it's really like a slog watching the 39 seconds of play. You know who agrees with you? AJ Brown. Yeah.

What's going on here? He's also not healthy, by the way. That's another guy. He might come out and look like, you know, with a spring in his step, but we haven't seen it. And those drops last week were big time. I had a couple of prop bets for you before we get to the picks. Yeah, I have some for you. Let's hear them. What do you have? I'll hear yours first, if you want. No, no, no. Go ahead. Daniel's no interceptions, minus 104. Hmm.

I don't love it. I wish the odds were better. I don't love it only because of what you sort of observed was possible earlier, which is like the tip pass of the line of scrimmage. That defensive line. He gets hit as he's throwing it. All right. Yeah. Mahomes over four and a half carries minus 128, which is.

It just feels like this line should be six and a half because you know he's going to scramble four times. There's the kneel down possibility. It's the same number as last week. And we really didn't sweat that at all. I don't like this at this stage of the playoffs. Those two guys are running the football. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are running the football. So that juice on that, that's minus 120 on our fan base. Fine, fine. Josh Allen to score a touchdown is minus 115.

I love the odds, but it just feels like if they're around the goal line, you could even see it last week against the Ravens. They were just doing the traditional QB draw play over and over again. He's a batting ram. He's a bad boy. Him in the end zone makes a lot of sense to me. And then Kelsey hitting is over, which is 67 and a half. And Casey to win is plus 202. And I feel like those two are correlated. Yeah. Correlated. Yes. I agree with this. So I marked that one down.

Casey and Washington to be the Superbowl is plus five 18. Here's my favorite one though. This is a five. This is a five member. Same game parlay. Wow. Kelsey 50 plus yards. Okay. Yes or no. Sure. Yes. That's a yes. That's a yes. That's a yes. Matt Collins. One catch.

He's gotten a catch every week. Just one. Just one catch from Matt Collins. He always gets a catch. As long as he doesn't get kicked out of the game because he's a psychopath. As long as he doesn't get kicked out, then I like the idea of one. Daniels, 250 plus passing rushing combined.

That's kind of appetizing. He's way over that every game. He would basically have to get hurt not to get that. He's in the 50 to 75 yard rush without really... And at least 200. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Dallas Goddard, 25 plus yards. That's one of my favorite props of the entire... I'm on Goddard every which way this game. All right. So you're with me for those first four. Those four are on the target. So...

I will let you choose who is the fifth here. I have two options. Deami Brown, 40 plus yards would make that five thing parlay plus 380. Or McLaurin, 70 plus yards. That's plus 437 if you throw that one in. Does it have to be a Washington receiver for the fifth leg of this thing? It does. I needed one Washington receiver.

Why? You don't want it to be a Washington receiver? Well, the numbers are all over the place. It would be McLaurin. I would feel much, much, much, much, much more comfortable with the idea of McLaurin, especially because it could come by way of what we watched against Detroit, which is like a really smart play, like a bubble kind of play, a wheel route, you know, something that is unconventional. Who's catching the ball for you?

McLaurin is going to be catching, but really it's Austin Eckler and it's Zach Ertz. That's who's catching the ball for Washington. Those are your ball control guys. That's how you matriculate the ball down the field. That's how you possess the ball and have eight to 12 play drives and play and drives that take, you know, seven to nine minutes, which is absolutely the pathway for Washington to potentially win this game. So Eckler and Eckler.

There's an alternate Eckler rushing receiving where 25 plus is minus 470. He's going to get that receiving. 40 plus is minus 165. So you want to put that in instead of your receivers? Austin Eckler gets 40 plus rushing receiving yards. Yeah, I'm fine with that. I mean, I don't think he's going to get a ton of touches in terms of the running game, but he is such a crucial outlet for...

But for Jaden, he factors into every time Jaden's under pressure, Eckler is the guy that gets the first look. And no, N'Kobe Dean is such a big deal for Philly. That would be the dude that I would worry about taking away the Eckler option. But I think I don't worry about that in this game. So I love the idea of Eckler. He's going to touch the ball a lot in my estimation.

All right. So we're going to do Echo as the fifth and I'll give you the odds when we actually do a million dollar picks. Let me write that one down. What were your props that you liked?

uh, Dallas Goddard. I'm not sure exactly where the number is at this, at the moment, but I had him over 38 and a half yards. Um, there's an incredible, uh, case to be made. Um, he has at least 47 rushing yard, uh, receiving yards in the last, um, three games. Um, he's got a full-time role in the offense. So would you go 40 plus yards for him and not

25? I'm fine. I'm fine with 40 plus. I mean, I'm sure that ramps up the odds. I think that he's going to be a big time priority for Hertz, especially if he's hurt.

which is, you know, a terrible thing. But he is the safety valve for Jalen Washington against tight ends of season 26 in DVOA. And, you know, he's the guy that occupies kind of a short area. So he'll get the touches. I like him over his receptions, which I think is three and a half. And I like him over his receiving yards as well.

I really have enjoyed betting him over the last few years in the playoffs because when he's actually healthy, he gets the ball and he gets the ball in big spots. And I always feel good about having him in there. What else do you have? I love Mahomes longest pass completion ever.

Over 34 and a half yards. We talked a little bit about how the Bills have those injuries in the secondary. Since week 14, and this is not tied to injuries, Buffalo is 29th in dropback EPA. So teams are...

able to pass the ball. We watched this with our own two eyes with Lamar Jackson and that Baltimore offense. The Bills have allowed the fourth most passing yards since week 14. Third most per attempt on Saturday.

throws of 20 yards or more. And Lamar had, he went three of five on 20 yard or more pass attempts. Both Rashad Bateman and Isaiah likely had catches over 35 yards last week. And what I especially am keying in on here is Mahomes with

the compliment of receivers that we haven't really seen them. We haven't, this is an element of the chiefs offense. We haven't really seen, and we know we intuit that the chiefs show up to a game like this with a wrinkle that we haven't really seen. I think he's dying to get the ball down the field. 34 and a half. Uh, it was minus one. I wait on FanDuel when I typed this in. Oh, I really liked that one house house. Good job. Thank you. Go, go take a dump and come back and we'll do million dollar pick. No, I'm kidding. Um,

All right. So we have some good ones. Is there anything else? Is there any kicker stuff we want to do? Nothing. No. I don't know. So Jake Elliott to miss a point after. Yes. That mother effort. I mean, that was the difference between a six point, you know, non-spread and a seven point cover. Got to do Josh Allen over rushing yards at 47 and a half. You got to. I think you have to play that. I always feel like I lose on those. You don't. Do you like the unders in both of these games or is it just me?

I think Kansas City and Buffalo have the potential. They could, yeah, for sure. Because, I mean, you know, Buffalo, I think will be able to run the ball. So that's 48 and a half, that over, and then the other one, Philly, Washington, is 47 and a half. So that Kansas City-Buffalo number moved. It was 47 and a half earlier this week. So people are catching on to this over. I think both these games are going to be very similar with these teams methodically going down and trying to keep the other team's offense moving.

Could be. Off the field. All right, let's do it. Last but not least, do you like Washington plus six and a half with juice? It's minus 120 on Fando or Washington plus five and a half even odds? Oh, I much prefer six and a half to five and a half. Okay. Six is a key number as we just watched on Sunday. We did just watch it on Sunday. All right, it's time. The million dollar picks.

conference championship weekend, trying to rally. We lost some last week. We lost $585,000 still up. This is why you build the nest egg during the season. Still up 1.282 million for this season. Joe house has been helping out a lot of the time. He's decked out in Washington, all this gear. Uh, we're going to take the chiefs money line or minus one and a half.

However you like. Both are fine by me. The money line is minus 126 and the minus one and a half is minus 112. And I would just rather take the, you want to lay the point.

It's fine. And then they, they win 24, 23 and, and. Okay. I'm laying the money line. I'm paying the juice. Fine, fine, fine. Chiefs minus one 26. We are not betting against the infrastructure. I did it last year. A million dollar picks in the AFC title game. And I just said, never again, never again, never again. At least while they have this iteration of them. Chiefs minus one 26 over the bills.

300K? Yeah. Yes. Okay. Yeah. And then...

Houses, Washington. He officially said it's okay to call them the Commanders. I'm saying it. They are the Washington Commanders because they took that name from the colonoscopy Jews toilet and they propped it up. This name belongs to this guy right here, number five over my left shoulder. And he is the Commandant of the Commanders. This is the Washington Commanders. I'm here for it. Hail to the C words.

We are banking on a close game and we are grabbing Washington plus six and a half at minus 120. This feels to both of us. And House has been very respectful of

not veering too hard pro-Washington. And even there was a couple weeks where I felt like you were intentionally not taking them because you were obeying Jinx rules. Could be. I just feel like either team can win this game. There's cases for both. I wouldn't be surprised if the Eagles won by 28. Me either. I wouldn't be surprised if Washington won by 10. I'm prepared for anything. That means take the points. Putting 300K on that.

We are going to do some 25K props, including Mahomes. Longest pass, 34.5 yards. 35-yard Mahomes pass, we win. Mahomes over 4.5 carries, minus 128. Josh Allen TD, minus 115. Love it. We're doing 25K on Kelsey, 68-plus yards with Casey to win, plus 202. Great.

And then the Mac daddy one, I'm putting 50 K on this one. It's a, it's a fiver. Now let's put 33 K on this one. Actually. Great. Great. Just for good luck. Yeah. Shout out to the legendary bird, Kelsey, 50 plus yards, Hollins, one catch Daniels, 250 pass rush combined.

Dallas Goddard, your guy, 40 plus yards. Eckler, 40 plus yards, rushing, receiving combined. That is plus 522. Over five to one odds. Boom. And then just for the hell of it, I'm putting 25K on a KC Washington Super Bowl. Wow. Plus 518. Just because we built this nest egg all year. We're at the craps table. I'm just throwing shit all over the place. Why not? Yeah.

If you have a seat for house in a pro Washington suite, which there's probably two of them in Philadelphia.

Hit his Twitter. He's available. I will be there. I am definitely available. I will be at this football game by hook or by crook. I haven't yet figured out how I'm going to get through the turnstile. I will not be wearing any identifying Washington garb. I can tell you that much, but I am available. Maybe some Washington underwear. I promise I won't eat all of the food in the suite. I promise. I promise. And nobody's allowed to punch house. House is old. Left hand up. Those are the million dollar picks for week one.

What week is this? 21? Week 21, conference championship. House, good luck. We're all rooting for you. Thank you, buddy. All right, that's it for the podcast. Thanks to McShay and House. Thanks to Saruti and Kyle and Gahal. As always, don't forget, you can watch videos and clips from this podcast on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. We also had Kevin O'Connor doing fake trades with me on Wednesday, if you missed that podcast. So we put up two in 24 hours.

I will see you on Sunday night, right after Chiefs Bills live. Bill Simmons podcast. Go check it out on the Bill Simmons YouTube channel. Have a great weekend.

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