The Power of Probability with Alex Cosoi
StarTalk Radio
Deep Dive
Why do people often misunderstand risk and probability?
People frequently misunderstand risk and probability because they rely on heuristic hubris, where outcomes are perceived as what they want them to be rather than what the math dictates. This is exacerbated by a lack of proper education in probability and statistics, making individuals susceptible to biases and misconceptions.
Why is pattern recognition a crucial survival mechanism?
Pattern recognition is crucial for survival because it allows humans to anticipate threats, such as lions in the grass, even if the pattern is not real. This cautious approach protected ancestral genes by avoiding potential dangers, ensuring survival and reproduction.
What is the significance of the average of numbers in mathematics?
The concept of taking the average of numbers was developed relatively late in mathematical history, around the late 18th century, long after the invention of calculus. This delay highlights a cognitive gap in human thinking, as the average is a fundamental tool in statistics and probability, yet it was not widely recognized until much later.
Why is probability not a fundamental part of school math curricula?
Probability is often not a fundamental part of school math curricula, which could be due to a conspiracy theory suggesting that teaching probability would reduce lottery ticket sales, thereby diminishing a significant source of funding for public education. This lack of education leaves people susceptible to gambling and other probability-based exploitations.
What is the probability of a specific individual being born?
The probability of a specific individual being born is staggeringly low, estimated to be one in a billion, trillion, trillion. This rarity underscores the uniqueness and improbability of any one person's existence, suggesting that life should be cherished due to its cosmic improbability.
Why are people susceptible to cyber attacks despite awareness?
People are susceptible to cyber attacks because they become complacent and trust familiar platforms like social media, which are often used by scammers. This familiarity breeds complacency, making individuals more likely to fall for scams despite being aware of the risks.
What is the value of an email list in cybercrime?
An email list is valuable in cybercrime because it allows attackers to cross-reference known databases of passwords associated with those emails. This can lead to unauthorized access to various accounts, making email lists a prime target for cybercriminals.
Why are complex passwords not always the best solution?
Complex passwords can be problematic because they are hard to remember, leading users to write them down or reuse simpler passwords. This defeats the purpose of security. Instead, using passphrases or password managers can provide better security without the inconvenience.
What is the total amount of money earned by cybercriminals?
The total amount of money earned by cybercriminals, including ransomware and scams, was estimated at $1.5 trillion last year and could rise to $2-3 trillion this year. This figure represents only the money earned and does not account for the financial losses incurred by victims.
- Physicists in Las Vegas led to the lowest casino take ever due to their understanding of probabilities.
- Humans are hardwired to detect patterns for survival, even if they aren't real.
- Probability and statistics were not fully developed until the late 18th century, long after other branches of mathematics.
Shownotes Transcript