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Campaign Throwback: 'Soccer Moms'

2024/5/15
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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Christina Walbrecht
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Jeffrey Scali
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Jeffrey Skelly
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Kelly Dittmar
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节目主持人:本期节目探讨了1996年美国总统大选中"足球妈妈"这一概念的起源、当时的相关性以及其在今天的适用性。"足球妈妈"作为典型摇摆选民的概念在1996年总统竞选中盛行,但这是否基于事实?克林顿和多尔都试图争取这部分选民。 Kelly Dittmar:对1992年"妇女之年"的讨论,指出女性参与政治的空前增长,而非仅仅是当选人数的增加。Anita Hill的证词让全国女性意识到自己在美国政治高层的发言权多么受限,这促使她们以各种方式参与政治。 Jeffrey Skelly:多尔竞选团队认为"足球妈妈"群体是可以争取的,并试图通过强调家庭价值观来吸引她们。根据1996年出口民调数据,"足球妈妈"群体可能略微倾向于克林顿,但并非决定性摇摆选民。“足球妈妈”群体规模很小,且并非比其他群体更具摇摆性。受教育程度是影响郊区女性投票行为的重要因素,拥有大学学历的女性更倾向于民主党,而没有大学学历的女性更倾向于共和党。 Christina Walbrecht:对"足球妈妈"的关注源于对女性政治偏好的性别刻板印象,认为女性作为母亲的角色会影响其政治思维,且她们更容易被影响,党派忠诚度较低。认为存在一个始终投票给共和党或民主党的群体这种想法是错误的,受教育程度高的郊区中产或中上阶层女性可以被不同方式吸引。女性支持社会福利政策,并非仅仅出于同情心,也与自身经济利益相关。不存在典型的摇摆选民,一些群体(如年轻的拉丁裔选民)党派认同度较低,理论上更容易争取。摇摆选民通常关注度较低,但有时会因特定候选人或议题而参与投票。

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This is the second installment of the 538 Politics podcast mini-series, “Campaign Throwback.” Across three episodes, we're taking a look back at campaign tropes from past elections such as, “it’s the economy, stupid,” or “soccer moms” or that question about which candidate you’d rather share a beer with. We’ll ask where those tropes came from, whether they were actually true at the time and if they still hold up today.

In our second installment: "soccer moms." In 1992, Bill Clinton won the presidential election in what was called the "year of the woman" after a record number of women ran for office and won. As the 1996 election took shape, gender politics were still at the forefront of campaign coverage. As Clinton’s popularity was growing and Dole was lagging in the early polls, the idea took hold that “soccer moms” might either save Dole’s chances or ensure that Clinton made it over the edge. But when the election was all said and done, was that conventional wisdom correct?

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