Emergency Podcast: Will Trump Win The GOP Nomination?
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Hello and welcome to this emergency edition of the FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. I'm Galen Druk, and we may not have full results from the 2022 election, but the 2024 election has, I guess, officially begun.

Tuesday night, former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president from Mar-a-Lago. It was a long speech that touched on much of what Trump has talked about for the past six and a half years, but probably more importantly is what this all means. Trump left office in 2021 after denying the legitimacy of American democracy itself. He tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election through various avenues, which

which reached an apex when his supporters violently stormed the Capitol during the certification of electors in Congress on January 6th. Trump continues to face legal liability over his role in trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election alongside other investigations.

While Trump has kept a tight grip on the GOP since 2016, at this point his support is not unanimous, especially amongst elites within the party. So here with me to talk about all of this is Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver. Hey, how are you? How are you feeling about the start of the 2024 election exactly one week after the, well, not even end of the 2022 election?

Well, to give you some idea, I didn't watch Trump's speech last night. That was going to be my second question. Yeah. Did you get the cliff notes? I mean, it kind of does. You probably if I asked you to sit down and write the speech, you probably could have done it without knowing what he said. Yeah, I heard it was kind of lackluster, but like it seems all besides the point. Right. We've heard enough from Trump for the past.

God, how long now? Six and a half years. Seven years, yeah. Honestly, the one note I had content-wise in the speech was like,

It has to be one of the most foreign policy heavy presidential announcement speeches in peace times ever. I mean, I realize there's conflict going on in Ukraine, but the United States is not at war with any country right now. I know Poland. It was those missiles found their way to stop it. Stop it. Stop it. But they did not originate in Russia. Oh, OK. I mean, it was very foreign policy heavy. He mentioned a whole bunch of different he shushed.

He shouted out Angela Merkel. He shouted out all different leaders. You mean Angela Merkel? He shouted out Macron. He called Macron a friend. He talked about how he used to enjoy hanging out with foreign leaders at G20 summits and things like that. Which foreign leader do you think likes Trump the most? Uh, Jair Bolsonaro? I'll go with Modi, I think. Why? I just seem like they're friendly. Okay. What about Kim Jong-un? Uh...

You know, I one time met a guy who was Dennis Rodman's lawyer and went to... Actually, I probably shouldn't tell that story. Okay, wait. You can't stop telling that story now. I'm not telling this. You met Dennis Rodman's lawyer? I can't tell that story. Anyway...

Anyway, that's as far as... Well, we're leaving in as much as you just said. Agent. His agent. Yeah. That's as far as that story goes. Okay. All right. All right. Well, folks, we'll just have to keep guessing. Okay. So I did have another question coming out of that speech, which is that he has maybe something of a new... Before we get into the serious stuff, he has something of a new slogan, which is make America great and glorious again. And so I'm curious, is it Magaga or Magaga? Magaga.

Or Magaga. Magaga. Magaga? Yeah. Lady Magaga? Lady Magaga, yeah. So I polled Twitter to ask, is it Magaga or Magaga? And Magaga won with 60% of the vote, although votes still being counted. It's obviously Magaga. Magaga? Yeah. Should we get hats that say Magaga? We should have like a pronounce off. I think there should be like a spelling, maybe like a pronunciation B. Wait, say more. Where you just like pronounce words and you try to, you know, wouldn't that be valuable?

You pronounce names and words. Yeah. Scripts. Get in touch with us. Yeah. We got a great idea. Okay. One more thing to get out of the way. We're straddling this weird position where some decision desks have called the House overall that Republicans will control the House. Other decision desks have not. But are you done? Have you seen enough? Is the House called as far as you're concerned? I've seen enough. The Scottish teens at...

electionbettingodds.com. So this is 99.3% chance of Republican House control. So I'll trust them. Okay. So then let's move on to the 2024 election. Great. Are you ready to take the leap with me? No. No? No. Well, I'm sorry, but I'm pushing you off the ledge. Just read the ads. Just read the ads so we fulfill our sponsor obligations. And then we can go home? Yes. Okay. We're going to try to make this as painless as possible, but no promises. So

Time to be serious. Yeah. What does Trump's support within the Republican Party look like today? So I would say that he is roughly tied with Ron DeSantis in the most recent polls that has been in the midterms. That's takey. It's true. OK, tell me more. I mean, there have been like, you know, four or five nonpartisan polls in some midterms. I think two have Trump ahead nationally and two of DeSantis ahead nationally.

There have been a lot of polls by like outside groups that may be trying to create a narrative around DeSantis momentum that have DeSantis ahead in like some early voting states. So I'll read that since I have it in front of me. This was put out by the Club for Growth polling that they sponsored. So in Iowa, when it's... But this is, again...

important to understand. It's just you can pick DeSantis, Trump, or undecided. You don't have a slate of possibilities. So in Iowa, it's 48% DeSantis, 37% Trump, with 16% undecided. New Hampshire, 52% DeSantis, 37% Trump. Florida, 56% DeSantis, 30% Trump. And Georgia, 55% DeSantis, 35% Trump.

But I think it's important to mention that this is just head-to-head polling. And the polls nationally, the independent polls nationally, that showed DeSantis leading Trump were also just head-to-head. So it would... No, there's a poll from 7 Newsletter Insight showing all the candidates in the ballot and DeSantis ahead. People are like in weird denial about...

The fact that Trump isn't really leading in the polls right now that might change in the future. But like people are like, it's not taking to say like, it's just a fact that like, if anything, there's slightly more polls that have DeSantis ahead. If you count the partisan sponsored polls. Also, I'm not really sure that the other candidates matter that much. Right. I mean, because it will eventually get to head to head like most primaries work. Right. Like there's not a constituency in the GOP that's sizable enough.

for a candidate other than these two, I don't think, unless there's like another like dissent to Trump like candidate. Sure, you know, Liz Cheney can run and get her 2% or whatever. I don't think it affects things that much. Well, I think it's just, you know, looking back at 2016, of course, things are very different. And I'll start by saying that my inclination is to believe that Trump is vulnerable and DeSantis can win. That's my inclination.

But we have sort of underestimated Trump in the past. Yeah, people are so short. This must mean a no end, right? Like we just got through an election where the safe thing was to predict a red wave because it's what happened kind of last time, although not really, right? The safest thing on earth was to say, oh, there'll be a GOP hidden strength because it happened like one time ago or two or the last three, right?

Like, you cannot extrapolate that much from a sample size of one. In 2016, Trump, number one, was new and surprising and people didn't know how to deal with him. You know, I had a fresh message. Number two, there weren't very good opponents for Trump last time. There is one in DeSantis's case, too.

this time. Number three, the kind of everyone in the Republican Party knows what happened. They took too long and never really got around to backing someone else. So they've kind of learned from history. I mean, look at what happened with Democrats in 2020. They learned that actually, if we all get together and, you know, and like elevate Joe Biden, it might actually work. And so people like people think they're being like empirically minded when they're just being generalized from a simple size of one and showing like no guts whatsoever. Well, I think

I don't think that's necessarily... It's so safe to say, oh, well, of course, Trump has a hold on the GOP. Like, I don't know if it's true. He's fallen, like, behind in some of these polls. And despite being the former president, like, that's not, like, a very strong position, really. No, I don't think anyone can plausibly say that they know what the result of this Republican primary is going to be. I think if you look at the data, you wouldn't be surprised if Trump went on to win the nomination. He has an 80% approval rating amongst Republican voters. You wouldn't. He's still...

I think it's hard to say because we're in a moment of flux and obviously whatever happens in the immediate aftermath of this midterm could bounce back in polls. Trump could end up leading again as sort of the months were on and he's getting the attention and no one else has jumped in the race or whatever. There's obviously a very small number of these primaries in the modern era to look at. But if you looked at history, you wouldn't be surprised to find out that someone with his name recognition and someone with his approval

level would end up becoming the party nominee. Also, looking at history, there are examples where a figure like Ron DeSantis is able to beat the candidate who has the sort of conventional wisdom behind them. I'm just saying people need to have more guts, right? It's so safe to be like, oh, of course it's going to be Trump, right? And people aren't even looking at

the data really that shows like DeSantis is pulled into a tie. And if you're tied with much lower name recognition, that seems like quite bad for Trump to me. Now we'll see if that's sustained, right?

Maybe it was because of the midterm. Maybe there's differential response bias and DeSantis fans are like fired up and Trump fans are not. But like and here's another bit of history is like in the modern primary era since 1972, no loser has been re nominated again, although no one's run. Right. But like, right. Obviously, some people believe the stop the steal lie conspiracy. Right. But like still Trump is sitting at home.

in Mar-a-Lago. Joe Biden's in the White House. Ron DeSantis is in the governor's mansion, right? Like, I don't know. I mean, and like, it's kind of like the same old tunes. He's 78 years old. I don't know. I mean, I just think that like there's kind of this obvious case that like the party will

nominate Trump again. I think I said in the article that like I thought the price at prediction markets was down like 31% the other day, now up a little bit that I thought was like a good buy, right? Like he's got to have a one in three chance, but like, but I'm not sure he's the favorite or deserves any default praise. He's not, again, he's not ahead in the polls really right now, right? It's tied.

I think it is tricky. For example, the polling averages that we publish at 538 move a little more slowly than that because it sort of takes some time. And so after it takes some time to fully price in what's a one-off poll, where is the trend actually headed? This is not like just one day we woke up, this cataclysmic from the GOP standpoint. Republicans weren't even trying to spin the midterm results. They just all acknowledged that this was...

They totally **** the bed, right? Yeah. So yeah, you have like the poll shift after a big news event. Then that's different. I don't know why you'd particularly want to look at the older polls. We have a major event that happened. A major election happened. It went about as badly as possible for Trump and about as well as possible for DeSantis. There's a lot of chatter about that open discussion. Like that's an inflection point. It sounds like you almost don't see any upside at this point for Trump.

I see upside. I mean, again, he can win. I mean, he's a, I think, co-favorite roughly, right? I just don't feel the need to be like so careful about saying that like he's not in a great position. But you think he's in as good of a position as DeSantis?

Not quite. Close enough that you call them co-frontrunners, but if I were forced to pick one, I'd pick... I mean, that's what the markets say, right? So it was on election day that the lines crossed in terms of Ron DeSantis being favored over Trump, at least on predicted. Yeah, the markets have DeSantis 40, Trump 32 and a half, right? I would actually buy both. I'd have DeSantis at 45, Trump at...

40 in the field at 15 or something. Okay. If you want to be precise. So DeSantis slight front runner as far as you're concerned at this moment. And we don't have, you know, we obviously don't have a 2024 primary forecast. Here's the empirical basis for that, right? We have found that early primary polls

are somewhat predictive, but they do better if you adjust for name recognition, right? Trump has 100% name recognition. DeSantis has high name recognition, but not 100%. So if they're tied, DeSantis is actually ahead on a name recognition adjusted basis. If you believe that party support matters at all, I mean, there are a lot of deep cuts against Trump within the party these days. And I think DeSantis is going to be more organized and be much better at the tactics of the primary. And the GOP,

So every state kind of marches to its own drummer and they have different rules in every state for like delegate allocation. You know, Trump kind of won with brute force in 2016. Didn't have to worry about all the details, but like someone who like kind of games out the delegate counting process and things like that and the tactics of it. I mean, that's an advantage. It's an advantage to Santa's to have. Florida is a winner take all state. And the early states are also winner take all.

For the most part, right? I mean, Trump was winning with a third of the vote and getting all the delegates. And also, Trump is 78 years old. So there's a question, and again, I would say the same thing for Joe Biden. But like, you know, you quote unquote potentially like lose your fastball a little bit. There's some actuarial risk of getting sick or something and you're that old, right? And so like, you know.

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I think you sort of more commonly hear the argument that Trump has such a lock on the party and is in many ways destined to win from the left more than you hear it from the right. And I think there are...

There has been some wish casting amongst elites on the right that the party will move on from Trump, etc., etc. But at the same time, I think there's some overreading from the left that's like Republican voters are sheep, like they'll just do whatever Trump says. So I'm curious how you see the relationship. We've talked a bit about the elites. I'm curious how you see the relationship between former President Trump and the Republican primary voter.

I mean, it partly depends on kind of how broad or narrow universe we're talking about. Right. And there are these differences in the polls. I think they would I would think they'd be in part because like if you are talking about the hardcore GOP primary voter who consumes a lot of news because remember, primaries are considerably lower turnout than general elections. Oh, for sure.

That person is probably more excited about DeSantis than the kind of fringy voter who was like, Donald Trump is Donald Trump. There's no substitute, right? So looking at the universe these polls are assuming, I think is important. Here's one question I have. There are plenty of states where you don't have to be registered with a party in order to vote in the primary. And

in an environment where there's two open primaries for a Republican and a Democrat, those independents or whatever,

can choose if they're going to vote in the Democratic primary or the Republican primary. If Joe Biden runs for reelection and there's no competitive Democratic primary, but there is a competitive Republican primary, does that mean that in general, the Republican primary electorate in a place like New Hampshire is more moderate to independent than it would be otherwise?

I mean, in New Hampshire particularly because it's an open... I'm forgetting my primary terms, right? It's like an open registration state where I think open primary where you can vote across party lines. So there, yeah, the independents might help DeSantis a little bit there. That's one example. Although DeSantis is weird because he's kind of, again, like... He's not like exactly more moderate than Trump. He's more competent than Trump. Well, it's... We're back to the place where the left-right spectrum doesn't always make sense. I mean...

Do we know from the polling where more moderate Republicans land? Is it on Trump or DeSantis? I mean, obviously, DeSantis has been making the case that he can win your more moderate and independent voter given his margins in Florida in this past election. He had a 19-point win and won Palm Beach and Miami-Dade, which is historic for a Republican in a statewide election in Florida.

So it's not an either or. Like in 2016, Bernie did better, both with people that were far left for obvious reasons, and also people who were more moderate because they wanted an alternative to Hillary Clinton, right? So it could kind of be the same thing that like, you know, moderates, the few Republican moderates left will at first hope for like a...

Liz Cheney or someone, I guess. And then when she gets knocked out or if she doesn't run, they'll probably say, if I had to choose, I'd rather have DeSantis. But also some of the most conservative voters who are very attuned to debates about critical race theory and things like that. Or who do I think actually has the best shot of passing the immigration laws that I want on the books? They're thinking DeSantis. But I feel like

To whatever extent it still exists. And I think it exists to a greater extent than probably the media makes it seem that like folks who would read the Wall Street Journal and like the National Review or whatever it may be seem already behind Ron DeSantis. Sure. Yeah. So that is kind of I don't even think there is this idea that Liz Cheney might run. Right. I don't know. To me, it seems like he might already have the moderate voter.

Yeah, I don't know why if you're – I mean, Nikki Haley is considered – I mean, that's why I like it, these betting markets. You can get two of them combined at just 72%. I know that actuarially speaking, there's a chance someone else could run. It's pretty hard to see it not being one of those two, right? I mean, how would that even work? Well, let's blue sky for a second because –

Some other folks who might consider running are New Hampshire's Chris Sununu. Another option is potentially Larry Hogan. Congratulations, Larry Hogan. You finished fourth place in New Hampshire with 11% of the vote, and then you dropped out the next day and pretended you didn't know who you were going to endorse, and then a month later you endorsed DeSantis. Congratulations for telling the future. I think it still matters, considering that DeSantis will probably run as the more

steady hand, moderate-ish candidate, how many other quote unquote moderates are running just because... And yes, they can all drop out eventually and endorse DeSantis, but it matters how many even make it to election day in a sense because

Because what happened in 2016, of course, and history won't necessarily repeat itself, but what happened in 2016 is that the non-Trump vote was pretty fractured. Trump was only getting about a third of the vote. And that's what got him to his frontrunner position by the time the early states were over. And if Chris Sununu and Larry Hogan and Nikki Haley and Mike Pence are all running, there's a chance that it could splinter again.

Right. But like they are smart enough to know what happened last time. Right. I mean, OK, we should say so. Where is that? Let's say it shouldn't be 27 percent that someone else wins, but it's not zero. Right. Maybe it's 10 or 15 percent. I mean, I think that mostly comes through when like when one of the two front runners gets knocked out early. Maybe Trump faces some criminal indictment. Right.

Maybe DeSantis. I mean, you know, one of the bargains for Trump is like DeSantis has not really been you would say he hasn't been vetted. But the primary is a rigorous process. Maybe he has a debate. Right. Maybe Trump makes fun of how short he is. I don't know. I don't think Trump is particularly clever about this stuff. But it is true that like.

DeSantis has not been in the frying pan yet. Right. That's what I think. That's also one of the arguments of people who believe in something of the inevitability of Trump's nomination is that what is an actual fight look like and whose side do voters pick once it actually becomes a brawl? And I think folks have just seen Trump's sort of like shamelessness and meanness in the way that he engages with his opposition and

And have come to the conclusion that even DeSantis, you know, another conservative fighter, might not weather that. Again, I don't really think we should give Trump that much credit for like beating Marco Rubio and whatnot, who still has momentum. You mean Marco Rubio, who you thought was going to be the Republican nominee? Momentum Marco Rubio. Sorry. Yeah. But I just think people are like... Over it? I don't know. No, I mean... And also like the mistake I made or other people made in 2016...

Was kind of exactly the mistake that like the kind of pro-Trump people are making now. It's like, well, we know how this plays out. We know with Mitt Romney in 2012, aren't we so smart now? That Mitt Romney had all these goofy challengers and they would surge in the polls and then fade. So that's like now the iron law of how Republican primaries work, right? Like people just like always short.

be short, meaning in a betting sense, right? Bet against, right? Anytime that you can like look at like the longer thrust of history relative to what happened last time, always like bet on the longer thrust of history because people in politics have like memories that like, what's the word for like an object permanence or whatever? Of like they can't even see that, you know, it's like, it's like people like, you'll never go wrong. Spell it out for me.

You will never sound dumb at a Georgetown cocktail party. I don't know if there are such things, right? At an Upper West Side cocktail party by just saying, what happened last time is going to happen again, right? It's such the safe territory. And people just got burned by it last week.

Okay, yes, and two things can be true at once, Nate, which is that, yeah, what happened last time isn't necessarily going to happen again, but that in part of making sense of the world, you do draw on history. And so sometimes history averages out to be like, there's a case for DeSantis or Trump. And I think in this case, that's where history averages out. History is that when you have in these polls like a big name blast from the past, they often pull very well from name recognition and don't actually hold up that well.

Wait, so let me read this quote from the article that Nathaniel Rakich published on our site. He writes about an analysis from another colleague, Jeffrey Skelly.

Jeffrey Skelly in 2019 found that national primary polls in the first half of the year before the election are pretty predictive of who will win the nomination. Historically, from 1972 to 2016, candidates with high name recognition who polled in the 40s and 50s nationally, which is where Trump is at, won the nomination more than 75% of the time. He's not at that number anymore. Where is he at now? He's in like the high 30s, low 40s, as is DeSantis.

I mean, again, they are tied. The polls from before the midterms don't matter. They're irrelevant. They're like old news. OK, so we're doubling back to where we were before. New question. How does Trump's and this isn't a legal podcast and we can just move on if we don't have a lot to add here. But how does Trump's legal liability shape all of this?

I mean, it would be kind of hard to run a campaign from jail. I mean, I don't know, right? It's like people like, I mean, people were convinced. This is another little mini thing the Convention of Wisdom was wrong about. They're like, oh my God, that FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago, that's going to doom Democrats' chances in the midterms. I think sometimes you see like some...

wacky takes on Twitter and particularly like wacky liberal takes on Twitter and think that that's the conventional wisdom when it's not. I don't think your average person out there or even your average media figure was being like, oh, the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago. That's good for Trump.

No, there were absolutely people like that. I am very good at remembering takes. Okay, can you give me like an inch here though that like sometimes you put a little too much emphasis on the weird ass arguments you see on Twitter that most people are not familiar with, don't believe. I think people like

People have bad memories and they forget how bad their takes were. No. They do. I think that bad takes can get an awful lot of attention on Twitter and kind of end up having an outsized role in where you think the public consensus is. What do you mean by public consensus? What the general public believes, what the mainstream media is saying. Let me say this. I think FBI or other criminal indictments are a story where...

conservative media coverage matters a lot, right? Because you could totally spin it as, oh my God, this is a raid on Trump and it's so unfair. Or if you want DeSantis to win and you're like Rupert Murdoch, then you can say, this is quite bad. He and Hillary are all so corrupt and Hunter Biden. DeSantis is a clean bill of health, right? So that's a case where like, I think it's a little bit open to interpretation. We have opened the 2024 debate

Pandora's box, can of worms, whatever you want to call it. But I think we can sort of like put it back in the closet for a moment. While Georgia happens, this lame duck session happens. We're going to have to like pull it back out when the next candidate announces for 2024. If you had to, if you were a betting man, which I know you are, but not on politics, when do you think we're going to have to pull Pandora's box back out? Who jumps in next and when do they do it?

Well, this is kind of what you wonder is taking place behind the scene. I mean, like DeSantis has no particular reason to jump in now. Like, by the way, one tactical mistake Trump made is like, why are you now like, I mean, I think people have like these weird hopes that maybe DeSantis wouldn't run at all, right? He wouldn't dare challenge Trump. But now you've like elevated him. So he kind of like almost like has to accept the challenge. But like, let Trump like keep punching Trump.

Against himself. Fighting windmills? Yeah, I'm mixing so many metaphors here. Like Don Quixote? Well, he has handicapped himself, Trump, in terms of fundraising because now he has very strict rules in terms of how much money he can raise from any one individual and how he can coordinate with political action committees. What DeSantis has to do is lock up the better strategic talent, lock up key donors and fundraisers. So he has to kind of start building his team. I don't see why he has to...

formally declare he is governor of a major state he has a job to do right well the reporting suggests he doesn't plan to announce until after the new session of the Florida legislature is done I think in May yeah which is you know again assuming you are doing things in the background then that seems like pretty normal timing in the meantime Pence Haley Hogan I mean Pence is sort of running I guess

I mean, he's on a book tour right now. We do actually have a checklist, a sort of empirically based checklist of things that people do when they plan on running for president. And it's visits to the early primary states, publishing a book, all of the things on that list. I don't remember exactly what it is, but I'm sure we'll pull it up soon enough. I think Pence has checked pretty much every box. Yeah, Pence is, I mean, I guess he is the third most, I mean, in the prediction markets, Haley's the third most likely. But like, I don't,

quite see why she would run this cycle and will you have two big front runners right but like i'm not sure these matter that much i mean i guess pence is interesting is pence interesting what do you think can you imagine a world in which mike pence becomes a nominee in 2020 i can't for but i can imagine i can imagine a world in which he runs and then drops out i mean so look

If you're part of these conversations, call in, send us an email, whatever. But obviously there are people who do not want Trump to be the next Republican nominee who are Republicans working behind the scenes to figure out how to make it not so. I think people in McConnell's orbit are part of those conversations. I think people in Pence's orbit are part of those conversations. People who have like sizable amount of power within the Republican Party.

So strategically, what do you want to happen? Do you want Mike Pence to get in the race and fight head to head with Trump in a way that allows DeSantis

some room to breathe and not have to go head to head with Trump as the only person in the argument. So I don't know if Mike Pence would want to put himself in that position anyway. But say you have Mike Pence jump in next and start running actively against Trump. And maybe I'm getting too far into 12 dimensional chess. But I think all of these people who do not want Trump to be the next nominee, whether it's because they like DeSantis or because they really don't like Trump,

are coordinating in some way and this is what we expect them to do. Yeah, again, this is kind of what makes it different than 2016. You know, one thing Pence could do, let's say we're having like truth serum conversation behind the scenes. It probably wouldn't be this explicit, right? He would say, I'm getting 8% of the vote. I know that six points of that eight goes, we go to DeSantis and two to Trump and a head to head. Um,

But I was personally affected by January 6. I could have been killed, for God's sakes. And like quashing this electoral denialism is an important thing to me. And so like I will endorse you, Ron DeSantis, if you more openly, instead of walking this tightrope, more openly denounce election denialism. I mean, that could be a negotiation. I mean, maybe. Do you mean in a world where Pence never jumps in?

Where he does jump in and then drops out and endorses DeSantis or whatever. Got it. All right. Well, again, we will open back up this box soon enough, but we're going to put it away for now. And the next time you hear from us, I think we're going to be talking about

Well, we're on vacation next week. I think we're going to have a prerecorded podcast for folks. The week after that, we're probably going to talk about Georgia, the runoff in Georgia, I think, although I might be lying because I've started planning the week after Thanksgiving already, and I think we might have a Democratic draft on tap. So we might be playing on this box for a minute. Gretchen Whitmer. There you go.

But that's it for now. In any case, thank you, Nate. Thank you, Galen. My name is Galen Druk. Sophia Leibowitz and Kevin Ryder are in the control room. Chadwick Matlin is our editorial director and Emily Vanesky is our intern. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcasts at 538.com. You can also, of course, tweet at us with any questions or comments. If you're a fan of the show, leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store. If you're not a fan, then don't. If you're not a fan, then don't. Or tell someone about us.

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