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cover of episode Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut

Good Or Bad Use Of Polling: Extended Cut

2023/8/28
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
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D
David Byler
G
Galen Druk
K
Kristen Soltis Anderson
Topics
Galen Druk: 本期节目将讨论民调的优劣之处，特别是自第一次辩论以来，人们对民调的关注度和对其解读的争论有所增加。 Kristen Soltis Anderson: 根据不同的调查方法分析拉马斯瓦米的支持率是一种深思熟虑的做法，因为它迫使我们思考通过电话询问某人他们在共和党初选中投票给谁与在线询问的区别。在线和电话民调结果差异可能源于受众群体不同以及调查方式的影响，例如，电话访问员可能无法正确发音拉马斯瓦米的名字，或者受访者在电话中更倾向于选择更容易记住的候选人。 David Byler: 将拉马斯瓦米的民调按方法细分，并据此质疑其实际支持率，是一种好的民调使用方式，因为不同调查方法的受众群体可能存在差异，导致结果有所不同。在线民调和电话民调结果的差异，可能与受访者的年龄构成有关，也可能与拉马斯瓦米作为一位活跃的网络候选人有关。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion explores why Vivek Ramaswamy's polling results vary significantly between online and live phone polls, considering factors like mode effects, demographic differences, and name recognition.

Shownotes Transcript

This is a special end-of-meteorological-summer installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast. Galen Druke speaks with pollsters Kristen Soltis Anderson and David Byler in an episode made entirely of "good or bad use of polling" examples.

They consider why GOP primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy polls differently depending on survey methodology, what we can learn from post-debate polling, whether Nikki Haley used polling well in her debate performance and more.

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