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cover of episode Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?

Have Progressives Won The Economic Debate?

2023/12/14
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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G
Galen Druk
J
Joshua Green
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Galen Druk: 本期节目讨论了美国民主党内部的进步派和建制派之间的分歧，以及这些分歧在2024年大选中的体现。重点关注了拜登政府的经济政策，以及这些政策对不同选民群体（特别是年轻选民）的影响。同时，还探讨了以色列和哈马斯之间的冲突如何加剧了党内的代际分歧。 Joshua Green: 本书探讨了自20世纪70年代末以来，民主党内部发生的重大转变，以及2008年金融危机如何导致左翼民粹主义的兴起。作者认为，拜登政府在很大程度上采纳了左翼民粹主义者的经济政策，这在一定程度上弥合了党内自由派和温和派之间的分歧。然而，作者也指出，这种政策转变的效果还有待观察，并且在2024年大选中，经济政策和文化议题都将对选民的投票选择产生影响。作者还分析了特朗普的经济民粹主义策略，以及其对民主党的影响。此外，作者还探讨了左翼民粹主义运动的成功与不足之处，并对民主党未来的发展方向进行了展望。 Galen Druk: 本期节目深入探讨了民主党内部进步派与建制派之间的分歧，以及这些分歧在经济政策和选民支持方面的体现。通过对民调数据的分析，节目指出在一些关键经济政策问题上，不同派别支持者之间的分歧并不显著。然而，节目也强调了文化因素和对政府信任度等非经济因素在党内分歧中的作用。同时，节目还分析了拜登政府的工业政策及其对选民观点的影响，以及2024年大选对这些政策的检验。最后，节目探讨了在未来，进步派候选人如何才能获得更广泛的支持，以及民主党内部未来可能的分歧点。

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The podcast discusses how the progressive left, including figures like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, has influenced Joe Biden's economic policies, particularly in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.

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In early 2020, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez told New York Magazine that, “In any other country [she and President Joe Biden] would not be in the same party.” Yet, by April of that year, after Bernie Sanders dropped out, she “absolutely” threw her support behind Biden, saying “the stakes are too high when it comes to another four years of [former President Donald] Trump.”

Since Trump’s victory in 2016, opposition to the former president has served as one of the strongest organizing principles for the Democratic Party. And that dynamic has likely helped paper over some of the “progressive left vs. establishment” divides that were visible in the 2016 and 2020 primaries.

While the 2024 Democratic primary is essentially uncompetitive, some cracks in that unity have still emerged. For example, since Biden took office, one of his steepest declines in support has been among young voters, a cohort that backed Sanders in 2016 and 2020. Differing views of the current war between Israel and Hamas have further highlighted the generational divide in the party.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with author Joshua Green about those divides, where they come from and how they may manifest in 2024. Green’s new book is titled, “The Rebels: Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Struggle for a New American Politics.”

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