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cover of episode How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?

How Worried Should Democrats Be About The Polls?

2024/3/18
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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People
E
Elliot Morris
G
Galen Druk
R
Ruth Egelnik
T
Tia Yang
Topics
Galen Druk：本文讨论了距离美国大选还有七个半月之际，拜登在民调中落后于特朗普的现象，以及拜登对民调准确性的质疑。同时，文章还分析了一项关于年轻人对大屠杀认知的民调，指出其结果可能存在问题。最后，文章还探讨了俄亥俄州共和党参议员初选的情况。 Elliot Morris：就民调的准确性问题，Elliot Morris认为，虽然进行民调变得更加困难和昂贵，但这并不意味着民调结果完全不可信。他指出，民调作为衡量公众舆论的工具，其可靠性并没有被完全破坏。同时，他还强调了时间因素对民调结果的影响，认为距离大选还有七个半月，民调结果的预测性较低。 Ruth Egelnik：就民调方法及结果的解读问题，Ruth Egelnik认为，Pew的研究中心对在线自愿参与民调的分析是优秀案例，很好地展示了在线自愿参与民调的问题。她还强调了民调设计和透明度的重要性，认为好的在线自愿参与民调应该透明地公开其方法。此外，她还指出，政治记者需要对民调结果进行谨慎的解读，不能过分依赖早期民调的准确性。关于拜登民调支持率低迷的原因，她认为，经济问题是导致拜登支持率下降的重要因素。许多人认为特朗普的政策对他们更有利，而拜登的政策对他们有害。同时，她还指出，选民的投票意愿可能受到多种因素的影响，包括对经济和政治局势的感受。

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The presidential candidates are trying to crowd us out of the polling analysis business with their own takes on the polls! In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses whether President Joe Biden's dismissal of polls because of declining response rates is fair.

They also reexamine a viral poll from late last year that suggested 20 percent of young Americans think the Holocaust is a myth. It turned out to likely be bogus. And they preview Tuesday's primary in Ohio that will determine which Republican runs against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

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