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cover of episode Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?

Is An Election Vibe Shift Underway?

2024/3/25
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics

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E
Elliot Morris
L
Leah Askaranam
N
Nathaniel Rakich
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Leah Askaranam:本民调有效反映当前选情,但预测性不足,因联邦选举中选民更关注政党而非候选人。 Nathaniel Rakich:将民调结果直接作为头条新闻,特别是断言"蓝州变红",是不恰当的,因为选民的投票决策在竞选初期和选举日可能存在差异。在选举前六个月,民调结果可能更多地反映了候选人的知名度和公众印象,而非选民在选举日的实际投票意向。 Elliot Morris:共和党提名莫雷诺增加了布朗赢得俄亥俄州参议员席位的可能性,因为在2022年中期选举中,与特朗普关系密切的共和党候选人普遍表现不佳。俄亥俄州共和党初选的结果可能更多地反映了莫雷诺的主要竞争对手多兰的温和立场,而非莫雷诺本身的弱点。

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Is the presidential election undergoing a vibe shift? At the beginning of the month, former President Donald Trump was performing 10 percentage points better than President Joe Biden in net approval rating. Today that’s fallen to a 4-point advantage. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew assesses what's changed. They also ask why so many representatives in the House are resigning earlier on in their careers and they take a look at a new poll showing Republican Larry Hogan leading in the Maryland Senate race by double digits.

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