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cover of episode Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?

Is Nikki Haley The New Ron DeSantis?

2023/12/4
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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Elliot Morris
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Galen Druk
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Leah Escaranam
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Nathaniel Brakech
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Nikki Haley (广告)
Topics
Galen Druk：民调显示尼基·黑利支持率上升，德桑蒂斯支持率下降，黑利在新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州领先德桑蒂斯；美国繁荣协会支持黑利，增加了其挑战特朗普和德桑蒂斯的可能性。 Elliot Morris：黑利赢得共和党初选的几率为11%。 Leah Escaranam：特朗普被认为是最有可能获得提名的候选人，但由于他面临刑事指控，情况可能会发生变化；黑利赢得提名需要特朗普支持率大幅下降。 Nathaniel Brakech：黑利现在可能成为第二有可能赢得提名的候选人，而不是德桑蒂斯；如果共和党精英开始支持黑利，这将有助于她赢得提名；如果黑利在艾奥瓦州超过德桑蒂斯，并在新罕布什尔州取得好成绩，这将增加她赢得提名的机会；黑利赢得提名需要很多事情都顺利进行，她的道路很窄。 Galen Druk：如果黑利有机会获得提名，那么她需要在未来几个月内发生哪些事情？黑利正在争取那些既不完全支持特朗普，也不完全反对特朗普的共和党选民；黑利提出的许多观点在共和党内具有广泛的吸引力；美国繁荣协会对黑利的支持，对大多数共和党初选选民来说可能是一个负面信号；金钱在总统初选中代表关注度，许多人对初选关注度不高；在总统初选中，金钱的边际效用递减；初选结果很接近，这表明其他因素也起到了作用；德桑蒂斯在艾奥瓦州投入了大量时间和精力；美国繁荣协会的背书在新罕布什尔州可能更有帮助；如果特朗普在艾奥瓦州和新罕布什尔州获得高票数，那么初选可能已经结束；关注第二名候选人很重要，因为存在特朗普不是最终候选人的可能性；媒体对尼基·黑利新闻报道的增加，可能是因为媒体想要一个竞争激烈的初选，也可能是因为这是一个有意义的讨论话题；黑利在民调中的上升是合理的，因为新闻事件会跟随公众舆论的变化；黑利在辩论中的出色表现是其民调上升的一个重要原因；许多共和党选民认为黑利是辩论的赢家；辩论改变了共和党初选的动态，尤其是在确定特朗普的替代者方面。

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The podcast discusses Nikki Haley's potential to win the Republican primary, her recent rise in polls, and the factors influencing her chances, including endorsements and debates.

Shownotes Transcript

In the month since the last Republican debate, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been inching up in the national polls, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has been slipping. Today, DeSantis leads Haley by just 3 points nationally, 13 percent to 10 percent. They are similarly close in Iowa, and Haley leads DeSantis by a sizable margin in New Hampshire and South Carolina. Former President Donald Trump is at 60 percent nationally and 40-some percent in the early states.

There were already rumblings about Haley supplanting DeSantis as the alternative to Trump, and then, last Tuesday, Americans for Prosperity — the political arm of the Koch network — endorsed Haley, throwing its financial and organizing weight behind her. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew considers whether Haley really has a shot of winning the Republican primary.

They also dive into one of the intractable polling questions of our time: What’s the deal with issue polling? In other words, when pollsters ask voters about the issues motivating them or how they feel about a certain policy, what information are voters giving us?

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