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cover of episode No Sleep Till Iowa

No Sleep Till Iowa

2024/1/8
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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Ann Selzer
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Gabriella Abdul-Hakim
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Galen Druk
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Kelsey Walsh
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Kendall Ross
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Galen Druk: 本期节目聚焦爱荷华州党团会议前夕的共和党初选形势,采访了民调专家Ann Selzer以及三位ABC新闻记者,分别从数据和实地报道的角度分析了各候选人的竞选策略和选民的观点。 Ann Selzer: 最新的民调显示特朗普在爱荷华州领先,但仍存在变数。她介绍了其民调方法,强调不预设选民特征,并对其他民调机构的方法提出批评。她分析了特朗普、德桑蒂斯和黑利等候选人的支持者画像,指出特朗普的支持率在各个人口统计群体中都领先,而黑利支持者与特朗普和德桑蒂斯支持者存在明显差异。她还指出,民主党和媒体对特朗普的批评反而增强了他的支持率,特朗普的强势和自信是其优势,而德桑蒂斯在对抗特朗普方面不够强势。 Kendall Ross: 拉马斯瓦米在爱荷华州的竞选活动最为积极,特朗普的影响力依然巨大,但选民仍在寻找其他选择。德桑蒂斯和黑利正在争夺第二名。 Kelsey Walsh: 在新罕布什尔州,特朗普是领先者,但黑利和克里斯蒂有机会缩小差距。德桑蒂斯在新罕布什尔州的竞选活动不足,黑利希望与特朗普划清界限,克里斯蒂则坚持反特朗普的立场。拉马斯瓦米在新罕布什尔州的竞选活动过早达到巅峰。 Gabriella Abdul-Hakim: 在南卡罗来纳州,特朗普领先优势巨大,竞选活动相对不激烈。部分选民虽然支持黑利,但并不公开表达。她分析了黑利关于南北战争原因的回应,以及选民对这一回应的看法。 Galen Druk: 总结了三位记者对爱荷华州、新罕布什尔州和南卡罗来纳州共和党初选的观察,并讨论了拜登的竞选策略。

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The podcast discusses the current state of the Republican primary contest in the final stretch before the Iowa caucuses, focusing on Trump's lead and the strategies of other candidates like DeSantis and Haley.

Shownotes Transcript

The Iowa caucuses are just a week away, and in this installment, the 538 Politics podcast sets its sights on the early states. Galen speaks with celebrated Iowa pollster Ann Selzer about likely caucusgoers' views of the candidates and how things could change in the final week of the campaign. Later in the show, Galen is joined by ABC News reporters Kendall Ross in Iowa, Kelsey Walsh in New Hampshire and Gabriella Abdul-Hakim in South Carolina. They share their insights from months of talking to voters and listening to candidates as they crisscrossed their states.

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