The 2026 Midterms Are Only 701 Days Away
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why did President Joe Biden issue a pardon for his son Hunter Biden?
Biden issued the pardon to help his son escape sentencing for federal tax and gun charges, reversing previous statements where he promised not to use his pardoning power for Hunter.
How does the Biden pardon for Hunter compare to historical presidential pardons?
This is the first time a president has pardoned a son or daughter, but it's not unusual for presidents to pardon family members. Examples include Bill Clinton pardoning his half-brother and Donald Trump pardoning Jared Kushner's father.
What are the potential political implications of Biden's pardon for Hunter?
The pardon could weaken Democrats' ability to criticize future self-serving pardons by Trump, as it sets a precedent. However, historically, such pardons have not significantly impacted the broader electorate.
What do public opinion polls indicate about the Biden pardon for Hunter?
Polls show most Americans think Hunter should have been convicted and served time, with only 13% supporting Biden pardoning his son. This suggests the pardon is unpopular but may not be a major issue for the electorate.
Why are Democrats at a disadvantage in the 2026 Senate elections?
Democrats face a challenging Senate map where Republicans are defending fewer seats in red-leaning states. They need to win four seats to take control, which requires significant political swing or changes in the political environment.
What are the best opportunities for Democrats to gain Senate seats in 2026?
Democrats could potentially target states like Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas, where Republican incumbents won by less than 55% in 2020. However, these states are generally red-leaning, requiring specific conditions to become competitive.
Why might Democrats find it easier to flip the House in 2026?
Democrats need to flip only three seats to take control of the House, and historically, the president's party loses an average of 25 seats in midterms. Many Republican-held seats are in districts won by narrow margins, making them vulnerable.
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