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cover of episode The Fight For Working-Class Voters

The Fight For Working-Class Voters

2023/11/16
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FiveThirtyEight Politics

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G
Galen Druk
P
Patrick Ruffini
R
Ruy Teixeira
Topics
Galen Druk:2016年白人工薪阶层选民转向共和党,2020年其他族裔工薪阶层选民也出现不同程度转向。工薪阶层选民数量超过大学学历选民,成为左右两党选举的关键。 Patrick Ruffini:共和党面临的挑战是如何适应美国不断变化的人口结构,赢得更多非白人选民的支持。共和党应避免政策失误,例如贸然改革福利制度,以巩固其在多族裔工薪阶层中的优势。在经济问题上,共和党应保持其经济民粹主义的立场,同时避免在社会问题上激化矛盾。 Ruy Teixeira:民主党面临的挑战是其传统工薪阶层选民基础流失严重,包括白人工薪阶层和少数族裔工薪阶层选民。民主党应回归其“为普通民众服务”的形象,在文化问题上采取更温和的立场,关注经济民粹主义,避免在社会议题上激化矛盾。民主党应在经济政策上采取更温和的立场,避免激进的政策导致通货膨胀等负面后果。 Patrick Ruffini:共和党需要在保持其在多族裔工薪阶层选民中的优势的同时,避免政策失误,例如贸然改革福利制度。共和党应继续关注经济问题,例如反自由贸易、反华和本地化生产等,这些议题在拉丁裔选民中具有共鸣。共和党需要在种族问题上采取更谨慎的策略,避免激化矛盾。 Ruy Teixeira:民主党需要在文化问题上采取更温和的立场,避免激进的社会议题疏远工薪阶层选民。民主党需要关注经济民粹主义,在经济政策上采取更温和的立场,避免激进的政策导致通货膨胀等负面后果。民主党需要重建其“为普通民众服务”的形象,强调国家团结和机会平等。 Galen Druk:讨论了民主党和共和党在争取工薪阶层选民方面的策略差异,以及两党在经济民粹主义和种族议题上的不同立场。两党在经济政策上的立场趋于一致,但在社会问题上仍存在分歧。短期政治策略与长期目标之间的矛盾是政治中的永恒难题。区分好的激进主义和坏的激进主义,并非所有激进的观点都是正确的或有益的。

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The podcast discusses the shift of working-class voters, both white and of color, towards the right in recent elections, and the implications for both political parties.

Shownotes Transcript

In 2016, as has been widely reported, white working-class voters shifted decisively to the right. In 2020, working-class voters of color followed suit to varying degrees, though still giving President Joe Biden a clear majority of their support. This has left both parties with the understanding that going forward a multiracial, working-class majority will play a pivotal role in their electoral fortunes. So why have we seen these recent shifts to the right and what will both parties do to either capitalize on or reverse these trends?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen speaks with two authors who have recently published books about precisely those questions, but from opposite sides of the political aisle. Democratic political scientist Ruy Teixeira recently co-wrote the book “Where Have All The Democrats Gone? The Soul Of The Party In The Age Of Extremes” along with John Judis. Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini wrote the book, “Party Of The People: Inside The Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP.”

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