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cover of episode There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023

There Are Some Big Elections Happening In 2023

2023/1/31
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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A
Alex Samuels
A
Amelia Thompson-DeVoe
G
Galen Druk
J
Jeffrey Skelly
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Galen Druk: 讨论了《纽约时报》对共和党全国委员会成员进行的民调，并质疑其结论是否可靠。认为该民调样本量不足，回复率低，存在严重的无响应偏差，无法准确反映共和党内部对特朗普的支持情况。 Alex Samuels: 提供了来自昆尼皮亚克大学民调的数据，显示特朗普的支持率有所下降，但在共和党内部仍有相当一部分人支持他。认为需要考虑其他因素，例如其他候选人的出现以及选民的最终选择，才能准确预测特朗普的胜算。 Jeffrey Skelly: 认为《纽约时报》的民调结果存在偏差，因为未统计未回复者的意见。指出许多受访者对特朗普的态度不明确，可能出于政治策略的考虑。 Amelia Thompson-DeVoe: 认为《纽约时报》的民调本身是好的，但其结论过于武断，因为存在无响应偏差。指出仅凭该民调结果无法得出关于特朗普胜算的明确结论。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast opens with a discussion on the misconception of non-election years, highlighting that significant elections are happening in 2023.

Shownotes Transcript

Although much of our elections-related attention is already trained on 2024, there are consequential elections happening this very calendar year. The crew discusses the races to watch in 2023. They also look at how the Democratic Party's effort to rearrange its presidential primary calendar is going, and ask whether a survey of Republican National Committee members was a good or bad use of polling.

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