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cover of episode Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time

Trump's Primary Challengers Are Running Out of Time

2023/12/19
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
AI Deep Dive AI Chapters Transcript
People
E
Elliot Morris
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Galen Drew
L
Leah Skarnam
T
Tia Mitchell
T
Tia Yang
Topics
Galen Drew: 本期节目讨论了美国国会的现状，包括对拜登总统的弹劾调查和一项可能包含对乌克兰和以色列援助、边境安全资金以及庇护法可能变化的协议的谈判。还讨论了距离爱荷华州党团会议还有一个月的时间，以及民调数据显示的党团会议前的民调变化情况，以及2023年美国人的投票意愿。 Leah Skarnam: 就移民问题民调的分析，认为该民调有助于了解选民对移民问题的看法，以及民主党在移民问题上的形象问题。同时指出，选民很容易区分两党在移民问题上的立场，这使得移民问题成为一个容易区分两党的议题。 Elliot Morris: 对移民问题民调的分析，认为该民调效用很小，因为它忽略了移民问题的许多背景信息。同时指出，民调结果会受到当前新闻的影响，人们对移民问题的看法会受到媒体报道的影响。 Tia Mitchell: 就国会谈判和弹劾调查发表评论。关于国会谈判，她认为在假期之前达成边境安全协议的可能性很小，因为众议院已经休会，参议院需要一致同意才能快速行动。关于弹劾调查，她认为共和党以“事实调查”为由授权弹劾调查，为那些对弹劾犹豫不决的党内成员提供掩护。 Tia Yang: 就2023年美国中期选举投票率数据分析结果进行了解读，指出郊区和城郊地区的投票率远高于城市地区，并且投票率仍然很高。同时分析了高投票率的原因，以及城市地区投票率低的原因。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The podcast discusses the U.S. House's authorization of an impeachment inquiry into President Biden and the Senate's negotiations on a deal including aid to Ukraine and Israel, border security funding, and asylum law changes.

Shownotes Transcript

The U.S. House adjourned for the holidays last week after voting along party lines to authorize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. The Senate is delaying its holiday recess as negotiators try to hash out a deal that would include aid to Ukraine and Israel as well as funding for border security and possible changes to asylum law.

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew heads to Washington to discuss how Congress is closing out the year and what Americans think about it. They also mark just four weeks until the Iowa caucuses and look at what the data says about how much the polls have historically moved during the final stretch before caucus day.

And they wrap up by taking stock of how likely Americans were to vote in 2023. Since Trump was elected in 2016, the country has been in an era of historically high turnout in elections. Did that continue this year, and does that portend anything for next year?

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