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cover of episode What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?

What's With RFK Jr.'s Double-Digit Polling?

2023/6/26
logo of podcast FiveThirtyEight Politics

FiveThirtyEight Politics
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People
A
Amelia Thompson-DeVoe
G
Galen Druk
J
Jeffrey Skelly
K
Kaylee Rogers
Topics
Galen Druk: 本期节目讨论了关于平权行动的民调结果，以及这些民调结果的有效性。民调结果显示，公众对平权行动的看法存在矛盾，一部分人支持平权行动，另一部分人则反对在大学录取中使用种族因素。节目嘉宾们讨论了民调问题的措辞如何影响结果，以及如何解读这些看似矛盾的结果。他们认为，更具体的提问方式可以更有效地了解公众对平权行动的具体应用的看法。此外，他们还讨论了加州的平权行动公投结果，以及该结果对全国范围内的民意的代表性。 Jeffrey Skelly: 为了理解美国民众对某个议题的看法，更具体的提问方式比更笼统的提问方式更好。在关于政府支出的民调中，人们普遍表示应该削减支出，但当被问及具体项目的削减时，他们往往表示反对。这表明，人们对更具体的政策细节的了解程度不同，从而导致民调结果存在差异。 Amelia Thompson-DeVoe: 美国民众对平权行动的看法存在矛盾和模糊，这在民调中体现为对不同问题的回答存在差异。一部分人支持平权行动的总体目标，即促进种族多样性，但同时反对在大学录取中明确使用种族因素。这种矛盾反映了公众对平权行动的实际运作机制缺乏了解，以及对该问题存在复杂的、相互矛盾的感受。 Kaylee Rogers: 针对复杂议题的民调，同时使用笼统和具体的提问方式，可以更有效地收集信息，因为人们对议题的了解程度不同。在关于平权行动的民调中，人们对大学录取中是否应该考虑种族因素的看法存在差异，这反映了人们对该问题的理解程度不同。

Deep Dive

Chapters
The discussion explores the conflicting results of public opinion polls on affirmative action, highlighting the challenges in understanding how Americans truly feel about the issue due to varying question wording and specificity.

Shownotes Transcript

It's the final week of June and that means that we are anxiously awaiting the decisions in several high-profile Supreme Court cases. The remaining cases touch on issues including affirmative action, President Biden's student loan forgiveness program, business services to LGBTQ people and the power of state legislatures.

In this installment of the podcast, we take a look at what various public opinion polls have found on affirmative action and ask whether it's a good or bad use of polling. We also explore what to make of RFK Jr.’s relatively strong Democratic primary polling.

Plus, the Republican presidential primary field has grown again, with the addition of former Texas Rep. Will Hurd. He joins a crowded anti-Trump lane. So what’s up with all the anti-Trump candidates in a primary full of voters who like former President Donald Trump? And lastly, this weekend marked one year since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs. We consider how that decision itself may have changed public opinion.

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