Your Post-Election Questions, Answered
FiveThirtyEight Politics
Deep Dive
Why did Democrats have lower turnout in the 2024 election compared to 2020?
Kamala Harris won 6.6-6.7 million fewer votes than Joe Biden in 2020, while Donald Trump gained about 3 million more votes. Democrats lost ground in states with large Democratic leads and where there was less active campaigning. Turnout was also lower in progressive areas like Southern California, suggesting progressive policies alone may not boost turnout.
Is misinformation influencing voters' perceptions in the 2024 election?
NBC News' final poll showed Trump leading among voters who don't follow politics closely, suggesting low information voters may have swung the election. However, voters often don't take Trump's statements literally, giving him the benefit of the doubt. This aligns with the 2016 narrative of taking Trump seriously but not literally.
Did Kamala Harris lose because of her campaign style or broader political environment?
Harris faced a challenging political environment with an unpopular sitting president and economic dissatisfaction. Her campaign strategy, including not distancing herself enough from Biden, may have contributed. However, the fundamentals of the election, such as economic sentiment and voter dissatisfaction, played a significant role.
Where does post-election voter data come from?
Post-election data comes from verified voter surveys conducted by organizations like the Cooperative Election Study and Pew Research Center. These studies verify voter participation and provide detailed demographic crosstabs. Exit polls, while useful, are prone to errors and should be taken with a grain of salt until more reliable data is available.
Why did Trump carry North Carolina but Democrats win down-ballot state-level races?
North Carolina has a history of ticket splitting, where voters support different parties for different offices. In 2024, Republicans won at the presidential level, while Democrats won gubernatorial and Senate races. This trend reflects the nuanced and state-specific nature of these races.
How did social media and misinformation potentially impact the 2024 election?
Social media use drives people toward extreme viewpoints, but quantifying its impact on election behaviors is difficult. Trump's performance among less engaged voters suggests higher turnout may benefit Republicans, indicating a shift in voter behavior. However, the exact role of misinformation remains unclear.
What role did abortion play as an issue in the 2024 election?
Abortion was listed as the top issue by 14% of voters, less than in 2022. Among those who prioritized it, 75% voted for Harris, but 25% still voted for Trump. This suggests abortion was more of a top issue for pro-choice voters but not strongly tied to Trump's appeal.
What are the biggest remaining questions about the 2024 election?
Key questions include understanding demographic shifts in urban areas, trends at the congressional district level, and the economic factors influencing voter behavior. Detailed precinct-level data and verified voter surveys will provide more insights.
Shownotes Transcript