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cover of episode Election Countdown: Expert Analysis on Pivotal 2024 Races

Election Countdown: Expert Analysis on Pivotal 2024 Races

2024/11/1
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Breaking Battlegrounds

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Chris Cillizza
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Chuck Warren
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Constantin Querard
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Sam Stone
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Chris Cillizza:宾夕法尼亚州是2024年大选的关键州,对最终结果至关重要。赢得宾夕法尼亚州将为候选人带来巨大优势。哈里斯比特朗普更需要赢得宾夕法尼亚州。他认为,如果只知道一个摇摆州的选举结果,他最想知道宾夕法尼亚州的结果,因为赢得宾夕法尼亚州很可能意味着赢得总统大选。他还分析了哈里斯选择夏皮罗作为竞选伙伴的策略,以及关注北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州的选举结果和性别差距的重要性。他认为新罕布什尔州、弗吉尼亚州、明尼苏达州、新墨西哥州和德克萨斯州等州的选举结果不太可能对大选结果产生决定性影响,并重申七个摇摆州仍然是决定大选结果的关键。 Constantin Querard:亚利桑那州众议院和州参议院的选举结果,应该关注那些势均力敌的选区。亚利桑那州的选举结果通常会随着时间的推移对共和党更有利。共和党在亚利桑那州的选民投票率方面做得比以往几个周期更好。共和党正在努力动员低倾向性选民填写完整的选票。民主党的地面行动仍然很强大,而共和党的地面行动比2020年有所改善。2020年,由于对邮寄投票过程缺乏信心,共和党的地面行动受到影响。堕胎问题和枪支管制问题对未决选民的影响有限。民主党在其他问题上缺乏天然优势,因此他们只能依靠堕胎和枪支管制等问题来争取选民。共和党在亚利桑那州众议院和州参议院选举中有一些机会,但结果难以预测。 Henry Olsen:共和党在众议院拥有四席优势,并且由于重新划分选区而将获得一席。民主党需要赢得五席才能获得一席多数席位。民主党目前占据五个特朗普在2020年赢得的席位。关注这些席位的选举结果,共和党赢得的席位越多,民主党就越难夺回众议院。他还分析了共和党和民主党在争取非洲裔美国人选民方面的努力,以及关注佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州早期投票结果的重要性。他认为,如果特朗普赢得佐治亚州,那么他将有三种独立途径赢得270张选举人票。 Donald Bryson:北卡罗来纳州西部的选举站点已经恢复运营,并且投票率高于该州其他地区。他认为,在可靠的红色地区,选民以高投票率投票,这可能是共和党在北卡罗来纳州全州范围竞选中获胜的良好迹象。他还讨论了特朗普和哈里斯竞选活动中争取第三方选民的努力,以及民主党试图将第三方候选人排除在选票之外的努力。他认为,副州长马克·罗宾逊的竞选活动对特朗普在北卡罗来纳州的影响尚不清楚,但共和党在早期投票中的表现令人印象深刻。 Charles McElwee:宾夕法尼亚州第八选区是选举之夜的一个重要指标,因为它在历史上一直是民主党的堡垒,但现在正朝着共和党的方向发展。民主党在费城和匹兹堡的得票率可能会下降,因为特朗普在争取蓝领男性选民方面取得了成功。民主党在宾夕法尼亚州获胜的新途径是郊区地区,而郊区地区正朝着蓝色方向发展。宾夕法尼亚州的阿米什社区的投票人数有所增加,这可能会对选举结果产生一定的影响。 Benjamin Yount:威斯康星州的最新民调显示,鲍德温领先霍夫德两点。霍夫德获胜的机会在于特朗普在威斯康星州的表现,如果特朗普赢得威斯康星州,霍夫德也可能赢得参议员选举。鲍德温支持激进的变性人议程,这在威斯康星州的许多地区是一个有争议的问题。经济、犯罪和移民问题也是影响选举结果的重要因素。特朗普的竞选活动比他之前的竞选活动组织得更好,并且他成功地利用了民主党人的弱点。许多威斯康星州的民众的生活水平不如四年前特朗普执政时那样好,这可能会影响选举结果。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why is Pennsylvania crucial in the 2024 presidential race?

Whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the presidency.

Why did Chris Cillizza suggest Kamala Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro as her running mate?

To potentially secure Pennsylvania's votes.

What are key indicators for determining the outcome of the 2024 election on election night?

Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia early vote counts.

How does the ground game in Arizona compare to previous cycles?

Republicans have improved turnout efforts compared to 2020.

Why is Proposition 139 not expected to significantly impact other races in Arizona?

It's not resonating as strongly with voters as Democrats hoped.

What are the main concerns about Proposition 140 in Arizona?

It could allow the secretary of state to manipulate election outcomes.

What is the significance of early voting in Georgia according to Henry Olson?

It will indicate Trump's chances early on election night.

How does Donald Bryson view the early voting turnout in North Carolina?

Republicans are turning out at unprecedented levels, which is a good sign.

What is the significance of the Pennsylvania 8th district race?

It's a key indicator of the state's political trends.

How does Ben Yount assess the Senate race between Eric Hovde and Tammy Baldwin?

It's surprisingly close, with Baldwin leading by only two points.

Chapters
Chris Cillizza emphasizes the pivotal role of Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential race, suggesting that whoever wins Pennsylvania likely wins the presidency.
  • Pennsylvania is crucial for both Trump and Harris.
  • Harris might have a marginally better position if she had picked Josh Shapiro as VP.
  • The VP pick is often strategic, with historical examples like JFK and LBJ.

Shownotes Transcript

This week on Breaking Battlegrounds, co-hosts Sam Stone and Chuck Warren join Seth Leibsohn in studio for a special cross-over episode discussing all things elections. The episode features a series of key political analysts to discuss pivotal national and local races ahead of the 2024 General Election. Chris Cillizza, political analyst and author at So What Substack, emphasizes the importance of winning Pennsylvania in the upcoming presidential race. Constantin Querard, a conservative political consultant, shares insights on Arizona's local and statewide races. Sam and Chuck also break down the many propositions on Arizonans' ballots with Seth. Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, offers his perspective on the national race for the White House. Donald Bryson, CEO of the John Locke Foundation, provides analysis of local elections in North Carolina. Charles McElwee, founding editor of RealClear Pennsylvania, highlights key congressional races in Pennsylvania, and Benjamin Yount, news director at News Talk 1130 WISN, discusses the Wisconsin Senate race. Don’t miss this comprehensive overview of crucial political contests shaping the nation's future.

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About our guests:

Chris Cillizza is a political analyst with two decades of experience at major outlets like CNN and The Washington Post. He now runs "So What?", a newsletter where he dives deep into the "why" behind major political events to help us understand what’s coming next.

**Constantin Querard **is the founder and president of Grassroots Partners, LLC, one of Arizona’s leading campaign consulting and public affairs firms.  A frequent guest on local and national media, Constantin has won hundreds of races at various levels, with notable success at the state legislative level.  In fact, nearly 60% of the Republicans in the Arizona State Legislature are Grassroots clients.

Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, political analyst, columnist, and host of the Beyond the Polls podcast.

**Donald Bryson **is the CEO of the John Locke Foundation and Publisher of Carolina Journal. He writes about history, politics, and public policy and has been featured in Investor’s Business Daily, National Review, The Wall Street Journal and Fox News.

Charles McElwee is the founding editor of RealClearPennsylvania. He is a contributing writer for RealClearPolitics, City Journal, and POLITICO. You can follow him on X at @CFMcElwee.

Benjamin Yount is the news director and show host at News Talk 1130 WISN. He spent 15 years covering corruption and the daily insights at the Illinois Capitol, and now writes and talks about Wisconsin each day. Get full access to Breaking Battlegrounds at breakingbattlegrounds.substack.com/subscribe)