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cover of episode The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning

The Presidential Race Is in Uncharted Territory, but It’s Clear Who’s Winning

2024/7/19
logo of podcast The New Yorker Radio Hour

The New Yorker Radio Hour

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A
Ann Selzer
C
Claire Malone
H
Harry Enten
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Claire Malone:本期节目讨论了2024年美国总统大选的最新动态,包括特朗普遇刺未遂事件、拜登支持率下降以及民调的解读等。 Harry Enten:对特朗普遇刺事件的民调反应分析,以及对拜登在辩论后支持率变化的解读。他指出,虽然全国民调显示变化不大,但在关键摇摆州,拜登的支持率下降已让民主党人感到担忧。他还分析了独立选民对特朗普支持率上升的原因,以及拜登的支持者构成(主要是激进的自由派选民、年长的黑人选民以及大多数民主党人)。他认为,特朗普目前比拜登拥有更多胜选的途径,因为拜登的不赞成率居高不下,而他的支持率低于40%。 Ann Selzer:她介绍了其公司进行民调的方法,包括“前瞻性民调”方法,即关注当前人口统计数据,而不是以往选举的投票者数据。她指出,与传统观点相反,65岁及以上年龄段的人群是拜登最强大的支持群体,而年轻人则更倾向于共和党。她还解释了民调的加权处理方法,以及如何应对现在很多人不接陌生号码的电话的问题。她强调,好的民调能够准确反映选民情绪的变化,这对于竞选活动至关重要。 Harry Enten:他强调关注民调平均值的重要性,并指出关注摇摆州的民调对于预测选举结果至关重要,因为选举结果取决于选举人团的投票结果。他还分析了黑人和拉丁裔选民投票意向变化的趋势,以及宗教信仰变化对黑人选民投票倾向的影响。他认为,没有大学学历的白人选民越来越倾向于共和党,而年轻选民越来越倾向于独立,而不是明确支持民主党或共和党。他还指出,如果民主党候选人不同,结果可能会大相径庭。 Claire Malone:她总结了对民调的解读,以及对拜登及其竞选团队否认民调结果准确性的看法。她认为,拜登对民调的态度与特朗普相似,当民调对他有利时,他就会赞扬民调;当民调对他不利时,他就会批评民调。她还讨论了民调的准确性和误差范围,以及人们应该在党代会之后再关注民调结果。

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The movement to persuade President Biden—long after the primaries—to drop out of the Presidential race is unprecedented. So is the candidacy of a convicted felon. But this election season went from startling to shocking with the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the death of a bystander. Despite the unknowns, the contours of the race are becoming clear, the CNN data journalist Harry Enten tells Clare Malone). President Biden’s support in national polls following his disastrous performance in the June debate slipped just slightly. But in key swing states, Biden’s support has ebbed to a point that has terrified Democrats. Malone spoke with Enten while he was covering the Republican National Convention, in Milwaukee. She asked Enten about how the attempt on Ronald Reagan’s life affected his favorability. Malone also spoke with the highly regarded pollster Ann Selzer, who runs polling for the Des Moines Register. Selzer explains how the polls know what they know—even when so many people don’t pick up their phones.