Award Predictions with John Hollinger
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And now, The Low Post. Welcome to The Low Post podcast on a gorgeous Friday, the last Friday before real NBA games begin, NBA games that count in the standings. And I have never, it's been a long time. I don't want to say never, it's been a long time since I've been this excited about

for real NBA basketball to come back. We had a real offseason. We have had a scandal-ridden September and October. We can finally start to unwrap the presence of what these teams look like after an offseason of change. It's time to have a real sicko on the podcast like me, a sicko who is going to be mad about where the Indiana Pacers ranked in my league pass rankings as if I...

Make the decisions. The algorithm makes the decisions. I am just the passive recipient of the algorithm's wisdom. I needed a sicko to yell at me about that stuff, debate me about who's going to be fun to watch and crappy to watch and who's going to win all the awards and who's going to win the championship. And the sickest of sickos is here. Such a sicko that in the background is a Milwaukee Brewers jersey unbuttoned.

of a player that I had completely forgotten about from the 1980s. John Hollinger, the greatest to ever do it at The Athletic. How are you? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me on the show, fellow sicko. This will be fun. I'm excited because...

I finally get to be the comments section. You see, you poured all your hard work, all your blood, sweat, and tears into these League Pass rankings, right? You've racked your brain, thought of every angle, and now I just come in and just crap on it. You know, I'm excited to have you because you're one of, I think there might be eight of us on Earth.

And even including Indiana Pacers fans who are excited to watch Terry Taylor play basketball this year and who know who Terry Taylor is and why he's exciting to watch play basketball. But yes, I do pour my heart and soul into the league pass rankings. I was actually quite proud of them this year. I thought that I don't know why I thought I did a good job on him. My favorite guy. You can be this guy if you want.

My favorite guy in the comments section, which we don't even have, I don't think, is the guy who's like, oh, Kings are 20th. The whole list is invalid. I'm not reading anything else. Kings are 20th. That's all I need to know. I'm like, dude, it's just a league pass rankings, man. You can read, you can read and you don't have to be so mad about this one thing that it renders the entire thing bad.

So you've read them. You saw the rankings. You can go any direction you want. Where did you strongly disagree with me? And for people who do not subscribe to ESPN+, we will reveal some of the results along the way. But the Nets have three-peated as League Pass Rankings champions. And that has been, as you know, John, a harbinger of great success for the Brooklyn Nets in the Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving era. So you take the floor. Yeah.

Well, the first thing I want to say is, so you used an algorithm, right, to create this list? And you say, you know, you just follow the algorithm, right? It's all I can do. So my first hot take in the comments section, analytics is ruining basketball, Zach.

That's been the case for 20 years. And, you know, some bald guy, some bald guy who worked for a team for a bit is partially responsible for that. Bill Simmons and I created what I would say he discovered. I make a joke every year in the column different ways that Bill discovered an algorithm. This year, the algorithm washed up on the shores of Malibu in a glass bottle written on parchment paper. So the algorithm was discovered by Bill and we merely do what the algorithm tells us to do.

Okay. Okay. Well, the algorithm decided it did. It didn't just decide that the Indiana Pacers were relatively uninteresting. It decided that the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs were more interesting, right? It did. And, and I, you know, as you're saying those words out loud, even given Shet Holmgren's injury in particular, I,

That doesn't make sense to me, except so the algorithm is there's a there's a category called zeitgeist that the algorithm made up. And it just sort of measures the do normal people have any interest in this team? If you go to a party and you're having a drink, if we can still do this anymore in a pandemic, having a drink with someone I really want to talk about.

Terry Taylor is the person going to be like, this dude is a weirdo. I need to go to the need to go over to the other side of the room. Whereas if you go to a party and you're like, hey, man, can you believe the Spurs are tanking? Like the last time they tanked, they got Tim Duncan. There's a chance that someone is going to have that second conversation. I don't the thunder. I don't have any explanation for it.

Here's the thing, though. If you go to the right party, in one corner, all right, there's all the kids who are, like, wearing black turtlenecks and listen to different music and stuff, right? And they're, like, way into Terry Taylor and the Indiana Pacers. Look, the Pacers have—I think everyone's just assuming they will trade all their good players, all their veteran good players, namely the Miles Turner and Buddy Heald. Turner and Heald, certainly. Yeah, TJ McCarver.

TJ McConnell, although TJ McConnell, now he's got some league pass equity just on his own, right? He does. And as I wrote in the column, he has to be absolutely furious that Jose Alvarado came along and stole TJ McConnell's thunder as the preeminent

cat burglar on backcourt steals where he literally crouches in the corner and sneaks up behind and gets inbounds passes or steals it from people bringing the ball up t.j mcconnell was the king of the inbounds pass so they didn't even no one even got the ball he would just steal the inbounds pass uh and halliburton tyrese halliburton i i'm i have a little thing on him coming out next week i don't want to spoil it too much but you nailed it in your pacers preview which is um

which is up today, the guy is just a passing genius. In any defensive coverage where you put two on the ball, he is going to pick it apart with two steps ahead brilliance. The question is, the interesting one for the Pacers is, as you pointed out very saliently, is...

He's going to face all kinds of defenses this year because he's the number one option by far, including switches. And does he have either the speed or like the step back hesitation, dribble, step back three craft to beat switches? But he's like, I mean, he's going to be a 2010 guy this season, right? I mean, I don't know what the odds are on him leading the league in assists, but it's got to be pretty high, pretty low, I guess.

Yeah, yeah. No, he's – I mean, he's a big reason to watch even though they will shut him down with some vague injury on February 17th. But – so my main argument, though, is you can't put a team with the rookie of the year 29th. Oh! Like, Benedict Matherin is good, okay? He's a year older than these other guys who came out, so they may catch him in whatever. But he was the – they picked him sixth, I think? Sixth.

He was the best rookie in summer league. He's been the best rookie in preseason. Like if you're setting odds on rookie of the year, like why wouldn't it be him? I think he's just plug and play ready to go starting wing in the NBA. Like right now. Yeah, they do. You know, between Halliburton healed, Matherin, Duarte, they're bringing, I mean, Halliburton's obviously going to start. One of those last three guys is coming off the bench.

Could be Heald, could be Matherin, could be any of them. I'm with you. You just got to start Matherin. He's the second most important piece in your future. So are you coming out right now, John Hollinger, you're predicting – this wasn't even going to be one of the awards that we – Called shot. Called shot. You're calling it Matherin Rookie of the Year over Bankero, over whoever else's odds are good. Calling my shot. I like it. I mean, why can't he – if he starts –

And they eventually wither away the talent. Why can't he average like 17 and four? Yeah. Right. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, after, especially after the all-star break, when they shut everyone else down, um,

They'll probably keep him going, put the ball in his hands more. Yeah. Could it put up some big numbers? You know, this is what everyone came for in deep Indiana Pacers talk. Yeah. I apologize about what I'm doing to the ratings for your show. This is fine. Cause all the Pacers fans are going to spend all year saying no one's talking about, no, we right now at,

are talking about you for the first eight minutes of a national ESPN podcast. Okay. Give me a couple of like, it's like the one when they give the one national TV game between Orlando and Houston, just to say, look, we covered it. Like we did it.

Yeah, that's one where we got to break out some bells and whistles. Like we got to do the second spectrum alternate broadcast with funky sound effects and stuff like that. Van Gundy should like wear a toupee and do play-by-play. I don't know. We got to do something different for that one. Give me a couple others where you really disagreed vehemently, either on the high end or the low end with my league pass rankings or the algorithms league pass rankings.

You know what? I'm not going to say this is a vehement disagreement, but I actually thought New Orleans could have been even higher because basically everyone on that roster is interesting. And the...

The accumulation of everyone and how it all fits is interesting. And the whole question of like, are they somehow going to start the year five and 16 again? Like they always do, even though they look to have all this talent, like that part is interesting. Like who, who is the, who is the boring guy on new Orleans right now? Who, who, who comes into the game and you're like, yeah,

Maybe I'll change over to the Pacers game now. Nobody. Nobody. I mean, they could play four guys. Well, that would make them more excited. I'm not flipping to any Pacers game over the Pelicans. I guess the most boring guy...

I mean, even Jonas Valanciunas is fun to watch. Oh, yeah, totally. Yeah, I mean, obviously I'm biased here. Well, yeah, but he's going to like run people over, flex and roar. His three-point pump fake takes nine seconds and no one quite knows what to make of it. And it's just the whole thing is delightful. Larry Nance, I guess if you're just sort of a casual channel flipping fan, Larry Nance dribble handoffs and flare screens are not going to light your world on fire. Maybe it's him, but for me...

So the Pelicans came fifth and the top five in order were one Brooklyn, two Golden State, three Memphis, four Denver. That's a tough top five. I mean, really like you can, but, but I'm with you. Like Zion is we're all, we have, we're on Zion withdrawal. Like I can't wait to watch this guy. I can't wait to watch how he fits in and you're high on them. Right. I believe you and I are both on the high end of Pelicans expectations. Yeah.

I had them 48 wins, six seed. Yeah. So it's interesting to see how this all fits together. You know, are they going to defend? Do they have any three point shooting or will it matter? Will they just, you know, score 80 points in the paint every game and it just won't matter. From an entertainment perspective. I don't care about any of those questions. I don't care. I don't care. Yes. They will need to defend and shoot threes to win 48 games, but

For me to watch them, I don't even care if they shoot any threes. More power to them if they play no defense. It'll be even more fun to watch. Although they need to get some fast breaks. That's where defense will help. We need to get Zion in the open court and just people...

coming near him and then bouncing off of him in all directions at the same time. Um, so you had Pelican sixth, which means I believe, uh, the team among the sort of top seven slash eight in the West that you had in the play-in is Dallas, right? Dallas was in the play-in. I had Dallas and Minnesota in the play-in. Dallas and Minnesota. Ooh,

I mean, there's eight good teams. I'm really excited for this year in general because there's eight good teams, really, I feel like, in both conferences. And it's pretty tight between one and eight in both of them. Yeah, if you're high on the Pelicans as we are, there are eight good teams in both conferences. And in both, at least. And that's sort of just assuming, not assuming, that's sort of,

Closing off the possibility of like maybe the Lakers actually do something. Maybe the Knicks have like a Thibodeau year. Maybe Portland's better than we all think. But at the floor, there are eight teams, if you include New Orleans as we do, where if you told their fans –

or their front office people or their coaches, hey, man, I'm sorry. I got you in the play-in. They would be like – well, some of them anyway. Some of them would be like, good, I don't want any expectations for my team. That's great. Please, please, please send that to my owner so I don't get fired if we make the play-in. But a lot of them would be like, well, that's offensive. How could you possibly have that? And it's like, well, just go – there's only six spots. So –

Minnesota, New Orleans over Minnesota is a bold call. I think Minnesota is going to win a ton of regular season games. Your, your argument, I think in reading your column was essentially, there are just a lot of moving parts this year and it's going to take this. This is a 2024 team more than a 2023 team, right? Can you elaborate on that a bit?

Yeah, I mean, I think they've got to figure out the Towns-Gobert pairing. I think Anthony Edwards is still coming into his own. And, you know, I think there's a little danger of projecting a little too far ahead with that. I think the bench right now is not very good, except for Slo Mo, of course, which adds to their league pass rating significantly. I love Slo Mo. Also.

So I just think there's still stuff there they have to work out and figure out. I mean, they won 46 last year or something. People are like, oh, you're just going 46 to 47. But they had a lot of things go right for them to get to 46 last year that don't necessarily automatically carry into the next season. So, yeah, I mean, would I be shocked if they ended up winning the 50s? No, but I –

I just think there are some things there they got to figure out with the partnership and how it works with Townsend-Gobert and what do they look like in fourth quarters and whatnot. And it's going to take a minute. Yeah, we slightly disagree on Minnesota. I'm higher on them than that and I'm less worried about them figuring it out. But you're right that the West is obviously more loaded than it was last year.

I'm also less worried about the bench because they can stagger those four guys. You know, if you include Russell as a guy, still, they can stagger enough talent that they shouldn't have much of a problem. But slow-mo, here's the sales pitch on slow-mo. Kyle Anderson is so slow.

that his slowness almost effectively makes him fast because when defenders know, okay, Kyle Anderson has the ball, he's dribbling to his right, they slide to their left, his right,

faster than he moves. And so they, in effect, are out of position. And then he can go back the other way because... Because he's so slow. Defenders defending the NBA speed are just all out of whack and ahead of him. Who else is on their bench? Like Nas Reed, we assume now, is a deep bench guy who won't play. Torian Prince will play. Jordan McLaughlin will play. Jalen Noel. I think they have enough. I'm not that worried about it.

They were, the Wolves came, I think, ninth in the league pass ranking. So who would you put New Orleans above that? If New Orleans is fifth, are they more watchable than Denver, Memphis? And John Moran, even in the preseason, is like...

A f***ing show. And Golden State and Brooklyn. So Brooklyn is just... Maybe you just don't want to watch Brooklyn. You're just sick of it. Brooklyn's out. No, I actually think New Orleans is a lot more watchable than Denver. I was surprised you had Denver fourth. Whoa. I really am. So Denver... Denver is basically one reason, one guy, right? You will watch the most brilliant passes you've ever seen in your life, right? With Jokic. But there's...

I mean, there's just not a lot else there as far as like league pass watchability, right? Jamal Murray coming back doesn't do anything for you? Yeah, I mean, that's fine. Bones Highland just cooking people? The Bones Highland train, and I like Bones Highland. It's getting a little...

Off the rails. Like Bones Highland, six man of the year pick. Bones Highland, like totally fine. Oh, I missed that. Really? He's like, his odds for six man of the year are like fourth or fifth in the league. And he's like everyone's sort of sneaky. Oh, keep it like this guy could win. I'm like, I like Bones just fine. I just, second year guy, no.

kind of a chucker, although in a way that I like because he's a creative passer too, is now going to be promoted to a pretty heavy burden offensively, especially considering Michael Malone often does not stagger his starters at all in the regular season. I'm not just going to assume he lights the world on fire, but Denver is just Jokic, man. When people ask me why Jokic is so fun to watch, I say every game,

There are four plays where I just start laughing to myself uncontrollably because the pass he throws is so ridiculous that it's just hilarious. Yeah. And I agree with that. I just – the totality of like – I'm much more fired up about seeing like a Pelicans game or even maybe even one of these two – one or two of these teams you had lower than that. Yeah.

You know, like, because Milwaukee is like the same thing with Giannis, right? Like you'll see something you've never seen before. And you had them. Seventh. Seventh, which I think is like probably appropriate. Yeah. You know who you had? Okay. I was surprised that you had the Celtics ahead of the Lakers, actually.

The Lakers were ninth. The Celtics were sixth. I mean, OK, sell me on the Lakers were second last year and have fallen to ninth. I don't find either team, frankly, that amazing to watch, despite the talent that we all know is there individually. They both destroy the art categories of the algorithm, the courts, the jerseys. They're all just top notch in that.

And the Lakers destroyed Bill's favorite category, which is the unintentional comedy category, as we're already seeing with Russell Westbrook not joining huddles and then have to explain afterwards, oh, it's not something I want to do. Pat Beverly waving him over. Like, they just break that category. But sell me a – so you're excited to watch the 2023 Los Angeles Lakers. You're excited to watch Lonnie Walker –

go coast to coast, one on four, while LeBron rolls his eyes like, this dude is doing this, man? Like, have I broken the scoring record yet? You're excited to watch this team. For those exact reasons, yes. I mean, so, because there's this combination of tremendous talent, right? I mean, because you have LeBron and AD, and they're going to do brilliant things on the right night. You have, they're not...

abjectly awful around them the way they were last year, right? So you're actually watching like halfway decent players now. Like, you know, when Austin Reeves and Kendrick Nunn come in, you're not watching like Trevor Reason, Carmelo Anthony, you know, play washed up versions of themselves. So I think it's more watchable that way. Like the team might actually be half halfway decent to good this year. And yeah,

But they're still like the whole Westbrook angle sitting out there at the same time. So there's just a lot to unpack every time you watch them. Whereas, like, Boston's going to be good. And their top seven guys are really good. And we kind of know what they are. And they're not – like, they're good. They're not the most – they're not the most – Jalen Brown will do some cool stuff. I mean, there is that. But otherwise, it's like –

You know, can Sam Houser be the ninth man? And the lingering image of their offense is like a lot of interesting individual talent that does not always add up to more than the sum of its parts, both in production and style. Although they were the best offense in the NBA for the last 50 games of the season last year. The Lakers, I guess I'm just scarred from an entertainment perspective because

from last season thinking what an interesting basketball puzzle this is of fitting the most ball dominant player in modern NBA history, arguably him or Harden with maybe the greatest player with the ball.

of all time in NBA history and Anthony Davis and then the center question and boy, the jigsaw puzzle of all that. And it sounded so interesting. And within five games, you were like, oh, this team is just like boring and ugly and unwatchable and not that interesting at all. So I guess I'm just scarred from that. I would say the most controversial selection of the entire rankings was

either Orlando residual Orlando fatigue ranking them 25th. And they're going to blow that away. I think just based on preseason and just Franz Wagner, Bankero buzz Sacramento at 21 drove a lot of Kings fans mad because the idea of Fox fast break spread, prick and roll him. And so bonus two man game is really fun because

I just – Keegan Murray is interesting, was either him or Matherin were the best rookies at Summer League. He fits right in. For some reason, I'm not that stoked. I mean, I'm stoked to watch all these teams. All these teams are really watchable. It's not like I'm not going to watch – we're sickos. I'm going to watch a million games of all these teams. Something leaves me a little cold about the Kings, and I don't know why.

I'm actually a little more interested in the Kings this year. I think they could be really good offensively if they play, like you say, spread, prick and roll. Like they got a lot of shooting around those guys, too. When you look at Herter, Monk, Barnes, Murray, you know, plus because it's the Kings, there's like this, you know, you talk about the unintentional comedy category. Yeah.

You know that's going to crop up at some point, right? Like something just totally bad will happen at some point where you're just like, I don't understand what's happening. The example I used in the column, what I said was you never know when the Kangs will come out in a Kings game, when the hashtag Kangs will come out in a Kings game, was when Vivek Ranadive, who is just a walking home run in the unintentional comedy category, sat courtside,

between Vlade Divac, who he had fired like a year earlier, and Monty McNair, who he had hired to replace Vlade Divac. And Vlade had not been seen with the team. And all of a sudden he's talking with the owner and like Monty McNair is just kind of awkwardly on his phone while his predecessor talks with his boss.

And it's like because it's the Kings and they always have this opaque power structure of like, what's Wes Wilcox doing there? Wait, Joe Dumars is around. Which ex-king from the glory days is now making decisions? And they are the, no pun intended, kings of hiring the coach before the GM because they fire the GM all the time. There's just always craziness. You just never know when it's going to come out.

Exactly. And I mean, that's definitely in play this year. I mean, as you say, there's a lot of talk about the power structure there and who's really in charge and who will be in charge a year from now and where Mike Brown fits into all of that. Like their off season was like all Mike Brown guys. So, you know, there's that whole thing too.

I mean, it could be Haydou Turkoglu could be running the team next year. You don't know. You don't know who it's going to be. Lawrence Funderburg. I always liked Lawrence Funderburg. I like that Ohio State team with Lawrence Funderburg. That is a deep, deep cut. Lawrence Funderburg.

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Yeah, let's do it. Unless there was other league pass ranking slots that you wanted to get to. Is there a team? How about this? Is there a team like we all know who the big teams are, the contenders, right? And we all know those teams. We're all excited to watch them. Who's your like under the radar team?

Like, it doesn't even matter if they're a good team, but you're excited to watch them for some bizarre reason that you... Oh, Indiana was totally my team for this year. That's why I was so offended that you put them 29th. I took Umbridge, Zach. Umbridge. Umbridge! Look, it's a heavy burden to wear, the League Pass rankings. It's...

It's a lot of negative feedback comes my way the week after those are released. Okay, predictions. And I looked at Vegas odds for some of these just for fun. The 2023 NBA most valuable player. Who is your pick? Joel Embiid. Explain.

Uh, I think Philadelphia is going to be good. I picked them to win the championship. So obviously that's, you know, plays into it. Uh, he's finished second in the last two years. I think if it's close, there's going to be a lot of groundswell to give it to him. Um,

And I think he's really good at basketball too. He had a year last year that in any other year would have won him the MVP. So I think there's going to be a lot of momentum for him to win it. I think he's going to have a good enough year to win it. So I'm going to say Embiid. Embiid is also my pick to win the MVP. The Vegas odds...

have since the beginning of the offseason pegged Luka Doncic as the favorite, as I believe they did entering last season. Then there is a small gap to Embiid. And in some houses, Embiid and Giannis are kind of together as two and three. Then there's a small gap between them and Durant, Jokic generally come next. And then after that, there's a gap to Steph, Tatum, Morant,

sometimes Zion, and then there's a huge gap to the next group of players who we'll talk about. Luka, I just don't think Dallas is winning enough games. And having said that, I'm interested in what you think about that because I know you have them in the play-in. Having said that, the tide beginning with Westbrook –

and continuing with Jokic last season, has turned, I think, in what is a smart and healthy direction that MVP is no longer just a wins and standings award. Jokic won it from sixth spot last year. And so I say Luka won't win, his team won't win enough games, but we've seen evidence that 48 wins

can get you it. But is the play in now the line? Is that is that effectively where the line is going to be for the wins oriented voters? Like you just can't win with if you're the seventh seed? I think it's going to be harder from down there, unless it's one of those, you know, whack years in the West where like, you know, you win 51 games, you're the eighth seed. Which is totally, which is, I mean, totally a lot. But like there could be years like this year, the gap between six and seven could be tied at 48 wins. Right. And so are like, are we really making decisions about

Based on a tiebreaker in that case. Yeah. Yeah. So I think, I think Dallas, especially if they hit or exceed last year's win total, I think Luke is going to have a really good chance to win MVP. I just don't think they're going to hit or exceed last year's win total.

Jokic will just, he has reached a terrible point. Jokic fatigue. Jokic fatigue. And he would have to completely lap the field to win this year. Giannis is going to have a real case. I agree with you, though. Philly could be the number one seed in the East. He's by far the best player on the team now. And there is going to be a sort of groundswell of, has this guy been wronged?

once or twice now in the voting. Can I give you a medium shot and a ultra long shot that if I were allowed to bet, I would be interested in? Okay. Are you saying you're going to give me one? Well, you can give me one if you want. I'm not totally prepared yet. I'll do it. I'll do it. The medium shot is Curry. Curry.

who's like sixth in most Vegas odds. And I don't quite understand why that is coming off the championship, the finals MVP, this whole... He is a two-time MVP, but those are now pretty well in the rear view pre-Durant. And this whole sort of groundswell of, oh...

You know, maybe Steph Curry is a top 10 all time player. Maybe we've been underestimating Steph Curry this whole time or blah, blah, blah. I'm a little surprised. Maybe it's just the assumption Golden State is going to coast in the regular season. But I was a little surprised he's so far, not so far, but he's like sixth or seventh on a lot of these lists.

A little surprising given that, I don't know if you remember, 20 games into last season, it was like, well, Curry's running away with the MVP award. And Draymond's running away with Defensive Player of the Year. Yeah. And they ended up winning the championship. There was just this block in the middle where not much happened. Curry actually had a bad regular season last year. So I think he could be better this year. It's going to be tough to...

You know, we're kind of drawn to objects in motion. It's going to be like if Golden State's just the same team they were last year, it's going to be tough to make like the really strong case for Curry. So I think that's where he gets hurt. Let's clarify bad Curry.

Bad by the immortal standards of Wardell Stephen Curry. Yes, let's be clear. Bad relative to the previous seven seasons of his career. But he did shoot, I think, I don't have it right in front of me, but it's like 44% overall, 53% on twos, 38% on threes, which for him are actually well below his averages. I think he's going to have...

Again, total raw scoring average is going to depend on how much they care about the regular season and how many minutes he plays. And I would expect the answers to be on the low side. I think shooting season is going to bounce back. I just said, I think there's going to be a monster Curry season, um,

My ultra, ultra long shot, and I can't believe how low he is to the point that he doesn't even show up sometimes on like the first 20 guys that are listed. Like it's that low. And I get why it's a games played skepticism issue. Jimmy Butler is like...

plus 5,000 or plus 7,500 in some books to win MVP. And I understand why he's not in that tier with the gods, the Lucas, the Embiid, the Giannis. He's the guy whose advanced stats always outpace his sort of raw traditional stats. But like if he can get you 65 to 70 games, which I think is now the MVP floor, he drives winning to such a degree that

They outpace expectations every year. He's by far the best player on the team. I just thought, like, for him to be below Trey Young and Damian Lillard, who are great players but whose teams are not going to be in the stratosphere of the standings where the Heat were last year. Now, maybe the Heat won't be there again this year, but that's the one where I was like, oh, my God, that's where Jimmy Butler is? Yeah, I guess...

I guess I have a hard time still seeing him having enough of a year where he is like the guy who wins the MVP. Like, I don't know. It would have to be almost like one of those weird years where there's no one dominant player or like some of the best guys get hurt. You know, it's funny. When you were talking about long shots and the games played and stuff, I thought you were going to say Kawhi Leonard. I just don't think he's ever going to play enough games. And I –

For him, not enough games is like, I just, I just like pencil in 55 games. That's just like, even if he's healthy the whole year, back to backs, random, I just don't see him ever playing enough games. But I mean, look, he's Kawhi Leonard. I voted him MVP once. I think he's a,

god of basketball. So, sure, sell me on that. I mean, he's between Steph, the Steph group, and the Trey Butler group. So he's sort of a mid option. So we're both going Embiid. Can I give you one crazy-ass long shot that I think nobody is talking about and goes against everything I said earlier? Terry Taylor? The voters have not caught on yet to the genius of Terry Taylor. The

If Minnesota, like if it all worked and they got the top seed or whatever, what kind of MVP equity would Rudy Gobert have at that point? I can't. I can't. He'd have like – I think he'd have like – oh, I might put him fourth –

No, I'm not being like, that's amazing to be fourth or fifth. Like that's what Tatum and Booker were last year. I don't see, I don't see, what's he going to average 14 a game. I just don't, I probably something no matter. And I say that and it's like, I believe that he drives winning it in the regular season at an incredibly high level, which is why I'm high on the wolves. I thought you were going to say towns.

It's put up or shut up time in the playoffs for Carl Towns this year, by the way. Oh, my goodness. He was so bad in that play-in game. Oh, my goodness. It's – yeah, but no, I don't see that. Okay, what do you want to do next? Sixth man of the year, defensive player of the year, or coach of the year? Let's do coach of the year. Ooh, coach of the – I mean, this is like – this is almost throwing darts at a wall. There's a million candidates, I think –

Some there's the obvious ones like if good team X exceeds expectations by 10 wins, it could be Tibbs again. It could be Jamal Mosley. It could be Chauncey Billups. It could be Darvin Ham. It could be a million people. Then there are candidates where it just sort of seems like.

Either it's too fraught, like the Boston situation, or, you know, we've seen the Mike Budenholzer movie before. I don't think he's going to win again. So I'm interested to see. I have an out-of-the-box prediction. I wonder if we have the same one. Okay, so...

Coach of the Year generally goes to the team that wins 15 games more than we thought, which we don't know who that team is coming into the year. So there are two angles that I had on Coach of the Year. First of all, Ty Lue has never won. So if the Clippers finish with the best record in the West, I think there's going to be a lot of support for him to get it. However, he's not the person I'm picking to win. He's on my short list for sure. I'm picking Joe Mazzulla. Wow!

I just said the Boston situation is too flawed. I just think if Boston ends up winning 55 games or whatever, he's going to get a lot of credit. And, you know, from what I've heard, like I've heard good things about him. I don't think he's going to like screw it up. So, like, yeah, sure. Like I think there's a really good chance he could end up winning it. Wow. I mean – I mean, go back and look how often the coach with the best record in the league ends up winning coach of the year. It's pretty –

Like, there's a pretty good correlation there. There's a pretty good chance Boston has the best record in the league. Does it matter what the Yime Udoka situation is at that point if Joe Mazzulla is still the interim head coach or if that's been resolved one way or another and he's the permanent head or whatever? I don't know. I don't know the answer to that question. It was too fraught for me. I put it off my proverbial board. Joe Mazzulla is a very good coach, by the way. A very good coach. So it's, in that sense...

It's a good pick. Wow. Well, then my pick is considerably less dramatic than that. Okay. I'm going by a hair over Chris Finch in Minnesota, who I think is going to have a strong case. By a hair over, it hurts me to say this out loud because he's never won. And there is at some point going to be a

This guy has to win coach of the year year and maybe it's this year and that's Eric Spolstra.

and the Heat always punch above their weight. Haywood Highsmith is probably going to be a freaking all-star this year the way the Heat go. Jamal Cain. Your guy, Jamal Cain. I am going Willie Green in New Orleans wins coach of the year. Okay. Yeah. As sort of the Pelican. Whoa, how did the Pelicans become the fifth seed kind of thing? Good coach, well-respected around the league. I'm going Willie Green.

I like that. I like that. I think he could definitely win. How about this? He's won it once, but it was a long time ago in basketball terms anyway. Will Steve Kerr ever get a look again? Or are the Warriors just sort of considered this self-driving car now that, you know, given just what just happened with Draymond and Poole and the drama, they just won the title. They won without Durant. Like Durant took everyone there off the board for awards consideration for three years. Yeah.

Is he ever going to get in the conversation again? Because I think Steve Kerr is a legit great coach. He's going to be a Hall of Fame coach, obviously. I think they would have to lap the field for him to win. I think it would have to be like Phoenix last year type of thing. Okay. He's on my list. But I'm going Willie Green. Can I ask you a Golden State question that I've been tinkering about in my head and talking with people about and you're a good person to ask? I'm springing it on you. Okay.

I've been thinking obviously a lot about Draymond Green in the past 10 days or whenever it's been since the punch. Yeah. The leak. I think about Draymond Green a lot anyway. You know, you can't help it. He has a podcast. Like I think about what Draymond Green says a lot, like probably an abnormal amount. There's a long continuum of Draymond Green opinions. On one end is...

he is a product of playing with the two greatest shooters of all time and would look pedestrian on another team. And on the other end of the continuum is he is second only to Steph Curry as the driving force of what makes that team, what it is and is a legitimate hall of famer borderline top 75 guy. Um,

Where are you along? Obviously the truth is somewhere in the middle of all of those extremes. Where are you personally along that continuum? Probably more on the latter part. I think he's a clear hall of famer. Top 75 guy is hard. If you like, if you, if you look at like the number of really high level years, he like, he doesn't quite stack up to, to a lot of the other guys who made that list or even missed that list.

But, I mean, prime Draymond defensively is as elite as it gets. And again, to that point, he was the runaway defensive player of the year before he got injured last year. Yeah. And his skill as a passer and a shooter, I think, helps offset – not as a shooter, as a screener, excuse me –

some of the issues with him not being a shooter and, you know, what would it look like if Draymond played in a lineup where there weren't other shooters? Well, you kind of saw it the one year where Klay was out and they got knocked out in the play-in, right? Like it can get a little clunky if there are also other non-shooters playing with Draymond. But that said, like, I mean, in terms of defensive value, like who other than Gobert in the last decade, who is there?

Yeah, I was having this conversation with a couple front office people yesterday, and one of them said sort of facetiously, you know, what's the difference between Draymond Green and Robert Ori? You know, because there's been this sort of like, well, Robert Ori is the seven-time champion secret ingredient to the greatness of these teams. Why is he not in the Hall of Fame? Because he was the seventh best player on all those teams. This guy was being facetious. Yeah.

Draymond's a four-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA, six-time All-Defense, one-time Defensive Player of the Year. He averages seven assists a game regularly. Like, that's just stuff that... He's the point guard of the Warriors, as much as Steph is, almost. Yeah. Yeah.

That's just unusual stuff. He's an unusual player. He does work better as an amplifier of greatness around him than as someone who's going to maybe lift worse players around him. I mean, he's even said he doesn't like to play on or against bad teams. The numbers are interesting. If you look at

the Warriors scoring margin when Steph and Klay play without Draymond, it is crazy strong every single season, which I think would lend some, I haven't thought enough about why that, I mean, why that is they're great. And then they have Durant for three of those seasons. So just throw those out the window. But, you know, there is a school of thought that if you went, if you went,

Four out one in and the one in was not Draymond It was just like four perimeter players in Looney four perimeter players in Wiseman like they wouldn't miss a beat offensively despite the lack of playmaking from the four spot I I haven't thought enough about that argument I actually don't buy it because I think he's such a genius playmaker and then you throw in the defense like you said prime Draymond like again He was defense player there halfway through last season what he did to Jokic is

You can't even get to five guys who can do that to Nikola Jokic in the playoffs, frustrating him in the post, taking the ball away from him. And Jokic did average 30 a game in that series. So I'm closer to the happy Draymond side of the continuum. But it's something that I'm going to think about more as we head into what could be the last year of his contract with the Warriors. Let's do Defensive Player of the Year then, since we're on the subject.

This is a smaller field than the other awards, I think. But some interesting discussions to be had. Who are you predicting defensive player of the year? Well, I can tell you who won't win it this year. Draymond Green? Marcus Smart? Oh, just because. Well, tell me why.

Why can't he win again? I just think the finals showed the limitations of that award choice. You know, I mean, Robert Williams was, I thought, a much bigger driver of Boston's defensive success. And to choose a perimeter player, defensive player of the year in general, like the value of bigs defensively is just more. It just is. So I think that, you know, there's a lot of Gobert fatigue, which I understand, but...

I think he may, if Minnesota is good, like I think people are going to realize again how valuable he is. So he's going to end up with a strong case again. So I would probably, I would probably install Gobert as the favorite. I would say Bam Adebayo has a really strong case and he'd probably be the main contender. Robert Williams, because of the knee injury, I would presume will not be in the mix this time. Bam and Gobert are,

By far the Vegas favorites with a small gap between them and Giannis, who you haven't mentioned, which is interesting. And then everyone else falls below that. I didn't have smart in my top three for defense player of the year last year. I believe my order was...

You do this every year. You forget your actual ballots that you pour your heart and soul into. Yeah, I can't remember who I voted for. I went Bam. Despite the games played issue, I went Bam, Jaron Jackson Jr., Gobert in that order. I actually went Jaron, number one. Now, Jaron's out at the start of this year, so that could impact him. But by April, people might have forgotten about it, too, if he comes back quickly. But the narrative...

The narratives are lining up for a Gobert-Bam 1-2 in some order if they stay healthy. Gobert obviously going to a team that needs to be saved from itself defensively. And then, you know, fresh start, fresh team, fresh roster, you know, greatest season in Minnesota since KG maybe, blah, blah, blah. And then Bam is sort of...

you know, the ultra-modern switchable big. If he can play enough games, if the Heat can remain a top five-ish defense with P.J. Tucker gone and remain in the top four of the East despite everyone predicting, you know, some version of falling back for them. The narratives are set up for their... Giannis doesn't come up... Like, people will say the name Mikael Bridges before Giannis, Robert Williams, Draymond Green. I don't really get why he's just... I guess Vegas gets it, but I...

He's just incredible. Maybe it's just sort of an assumption that he won't go all out in the regular season, but he goes all out pretty much all the time. Yeah, take it for granted probably a little bit. And then you have two other really good defenders on that team with Drew and Brooke Lopez, so I think that diminishes from him a little bit. Is it too early to talk about Evan Mobley as a wild card? Nope. I was just about to say my favorite wild card is Evan Mobley, so you take it and run with it.

Well, I just think if Cleveland is elite defensively with playing two small guards, and if they use him as this Garnett-like velociraptor thing at the top of the zone again, that he's going to end up with a really strong case. Obviously, it depends on Cleveland having a really good year themselves, but...

You're high on Cleveland. You had Cleveland like fourth or fifth, I believe, in the East. I want to say I had them. I had them. You know what? I had Toronto four and Cleveland five watching in Toronto and preseason. I think I'm already regretting that a little bit. Yeah, I think Cleveland's going to be pretty good. Like there's there's there are three elite teams in the East to be Philly,

Milwaukee and Boston. And then Brooklyn could potentially join them. I stand crack. I had Brooklyn fourth, Cleveland, Toronto, five, six. And then that next group, I think Cleveland could lead that next group. So what I'm about to say, I realize how stupid it is and that the world does not work like this. And there are no such things as hexes and curses and things like that. Everyone,

All the NBA sickos are so high on the Raptors that I feel worried now that all of our brains are broken by the way they play or in some way like we've somehow fallen secretly in love with Canada.

Dinosaurs are cool. All the sickos are like, Toronto 50 wins. Simmons even asked me, could Toronto be the one seed in the East? If there has been a sicko who has written or said on a podcast, I think the Raptors are a 500 team. I have not heard it. And so now I'm worried that...

all of us are wrong and that the raptors are actually like a 42 win team and we're somehow blind to i it's it's you have you heard a pessimist on the raptors everyone is super high on the raptors yeah it's no it's really true and it's interesting because i mean obviously there are reasons to be high on them especially if scotty barnes has a second year jump in him but there there's a chance they're just not that good on offense

Right. And that they sort of covered it up with all the crazy offensive rebounding last year. But they're like that half court off it. Like there's not a ton of shooting and there's not like everybody can get their own shot, but it's not like elite playmaking. And there's not really a man like Siakam sort of the main guy, but he's, you know, still good.

Plays is mainly like a just kind of dribble it up and shoot a tough two. So the Toronto doesn't have shooting thing is so interesting because it feels that way. And conceptually, that can be true. But just play it out with me. Van Vliet's a good shooter. Yep. Barnes is not yet from outside 18 feet anyway. Siakam is like wildly up and down. And they're internally optimistic that that's going up.

Trent is a good shooter. Yep. And Anobi is a good shooter. Anobi is like a high 30s three-point shooter, right? Am I wrong about – I mean, I have to look it up. I mean, it's just – I feel like all of his three-pointers are open shots in the corner. That noise you just made is the noise everyone in my life makes when I begin talking about OG Anobi because I am – I just – I'm unreasonably optimistic and everyone is like –

So even like my wife at this point is like, eh, OG Ananove, are you sure? Are you sure? And then Achua, I'm buying Achua as like, yeah, I don't know which of those six, which five are going to start, but I'm buying Achua as a stretch center. And you look at it like you squint hard enough and you're like, is this really that bad of a shooting team? I don't even know. But now I'm worried that we've all cursed the Raptors and they're just not going to be good.

I didn't make a defensive player of the year pick. I guess I should have to make one, right? Yeah. I guess I'm just going to pick we all – everyone votes for Gobert again. I'll just pick Gobert. I voted for Bam last year. I thought after all this buildup you were going to pick OG at an OB. Well, you know, he was my MVP dark horse. I forgot to mention him.

I guess with Time Lord hurt and Jaron Jackson hurt and Draymond punching people and that whole thing happening, I guess I'll just say Gobert.

I can tell my level of excitement for that. Sixth man of the year. Bizarre. When is Vegas going to drop the odds on Tyler Hero, who's still like number two in sixth man of the year, even though I guess the Heat haven't said formally that he's starting, but he's going to start, I think. And he's still like the second favorite. They could change their mind, too. They could get 10 games in the season and be like, you know what? This isn't working.

Hard to win six man of the year in that scenario, but maybe. Who's your six man of the year pick? Jordan Poole. Yeah, I really... He's the odds-on favorite by far. He's going to score a lot of points. I think he's a really underrated passer. I think he's a smart passer, both on the pick and roll and kind of like in the muck of just random touch passing ball movement sequences. I'm going to... You know what? I'm not picking Jordan Poole. Okay. I already regret this.

Okay. I'm picking Christian Wood. Wow. Okay. Okay. I just think Dallas is going to be good. Their floor is good. Even if they're in the play and they're going to be good. He'll put up numbers. He's going to put up numbers. He's going to be a part of their closing lineup on a lot of nights as either their stretch five or with Kleba or whatever. I think he could average 20 off the bench.

Hero just averaged. I'm picking Christian Wood. Why? Why not Christian Wood? Why not, John? Tell me.

Minutes. Just if his defense gets his minutes squeezed. Defense is a six-man-of-the-year consideration? When has that ever been – when has that ever counted for six-man-of-the-year? You know why it counts? Because it will limit his minutes, which will limit his points per game, which, as we all know, is the only stat six-man-of-the-year voters can have. Now, you are talking to someone who –

I care about defense and I care about defense and six man of the year voting. And I have said and written many times, it is a crime against basketball and all that it stands for that Andre Iguodala never won six man of the year during his warrior's height and lost it to all these gunners who can't be on the floor at the end of playoff games because of their defense. But Andre only averages eight points a game, blah, blah, blah.

It's a crime, Hollinger. And if you didn't vote for him once, I should have looked up your voting record to make sure. I was working in the Grizzlies front office, so I'm pretty sure I never voted for him. Oh, yeah, that's right. But speaking of points per game and six man, can we talk about the dark horse? Okay. The guy who's probably going to have the highest scoring average among guys who come off the bench. I'm very excited for who this is. Colin Sexton. Oh, my God.

He's going to have so many 15-point fourth quarters at the end of 125-108 blowouts. He's going to end up averaging like 24 points on decent efficiency. Honestly, that's right now. And he will make no impact on winning whatsoever. I like Collin Sexton. He's a perfect, perfect six-meter. I'm a Collin Sexton believer.

I've never seen a 24 points per game on efficient shooting season, sneezed at and dismissed with the level of disrespect that his season from two years ago is dismissed.

I will say this is the first moment that I've thought about the Utah Jazz in like six days since I put them 30th in the league pass rankings and made so much fun of their horrible new uniforms that it was communicated to me that I should be careful venturing to Utah for All-Star or any other trip to which I say I'm sorry to be the 950th media person to tell you that your uniforms suck and

And if that hurts your feelings, then get thicker skin or just get new uniforms because they're bad. Mike Conley, probably the most fashion-conscious player we ever had being forced to wear the ugliest uniforms that we've seen in the NBA in like two decades. It just kills me. What is Mike Conley going to do?

When on the 15th possession of a game, he brings it up for the 15th straight time, passes it to Colin Sexton, Talon Horton Tucker, Jordan Clarkson, Nikhil Alexander Walker, Lowry Markkinen, and never, ever sniffs the basketball again on the entire. Is he just going to just walk back on defense weeping? We've got to get Mike Conley out of there. We just have to. He cannot play on that team this whole year.

Hashtag free Mike. I'm going Christian Wood unapologetically. Now, I told you about this before. We were going to do a segment on NBA Today and we scrapped it. Most important bench player of the year. Not six man of the year award winner, unless you think it's the same person. But most important bench player of the year. And I had an instant, no doubt answer. A person I don't think is going to win six man of the year. But I think if you're talking about importance to the championship expectations,

equity race is my most important bench player. Did you have an answer to this or did you want me to go? I could think of two answers, but I'm interested in what your answer is. Norman Powell. I just think... Interesting. I think all the... And this is going to lead us into finals picks, which is the last thing. I think all the Clippers...

analysis has been, oh my god, they're so deep in wings around Kawhi and PG. Look how they can go five out. And then here's the list of all the wings, as if they're all like functionally equivalent players in terms of skill and talent. Covington, Batum, Morris, who's more of a four, but go with me, Mann, Kennard, people I already just forgot. And I stop at Powell every time.

Because that guy has averaged like 17, 18 a game in the NBA on high 30s, almost 40% three-point shooting. And has the downhill gear that the Clippers so sorely need around two guys who are kind of just sort of liquidy, shake and bake, mid-range guys in Kawhi and PG. That I just think if he's the player that he has been at his best...

He's going to be such an important element to their team. I understand he's not what Covington and Batum and Mann are defensively, rebounding-wise, all that. I just think what he brings to their offense could be so powerful that he will and should be a big part of their closing lineups when they go five out, a big part of their team. I know they've thought about starting him. They're not going to. He's my no-brainer answer for that. Was he one of your two?

He actually was not, but you got to a really interesting point. The Clippers kind of don't have a third best player offensively, and I think they need one. And Powell and John Wall are their two best chances for that guy. And I think probably Powell is the better chance.

So I do think he's a really important player. I was actually going to say a different Clipper. I was going to say Covington. Interesting. I was going to say Covington because he has to play five in fourth quarters for them. Like the way they're set up, he is their five in crunch time in the playoff game. No doubt about it. And like that has to work basically. And that's the one thing where you look at them and wonder and kind of go, yeah, I know –

you know, is that, is that really going to be a thing now coming to, to his credit? Yeah. Do you realize he was seventh in the NBA block rate last year? Crazy. He's a crazy rim protector for his size. Yeah. Yeah. Um, and so maybe, maybe he pulls this off. Um,

But I think he's a really, really vital bench player. And then the other guy I sort of thought of, I actually, he might end up starting though. But President Brogdon in Boston. UVA. I knew UVA has finally come up.

You got Broughton and Hauser on the same team. I mean, the IQ has to be off the charts. I mean, can you imagine how much the other guys learn every day just being around them? Oh, my God. You know that I have a visceral distaste for the University of Virginia. Oh, and I'm just going straight for that wound and just poking at it. Yeah, it's a wound. It's a wound that's healed a long time ago, but some wounds never really heal. Some grudges – I will hold some grudges –

Sports, it's better that we don't talk about it anymore. Yeah, Brogdon's an obvious choice. I think it's instructive that both of us, though, picked a Clipper as part of this discussion because, and that brings us to our finals picks. Yes. I think the Clippers issue, as you wrote very eloquently about, is we're all in love with their depth. Their two stars plus depth. And we have seen...

Two star plus depth models win, make the finals, win the finals, whether it's, you know, we can go through the whole litany of teams in recent NBA history. Now, the two stars have to be really, really good. They have to generally be top 10, 12 ish players at minimum. Is PG going to be there this year? We'll see. Kawhi healthy is. But the depth is like just as an example, right?

Boston's probably a big two plus well-fitting good player depth around them. And I think the skepticism you raise about the Clippers is do they have anyone on that team beyond the two guys who's as good as Marcus Smart or Robert Williams or Mikael Bridges or DeAndre Ayton or just name the third and fourth best guys on teams that have gotten really Andrew Wiggins and Klay Thompson. Aaron Gordon. Yes.

- Right? - Yeah. - I mean, seriously. - And so I think it's instructive that both of us have picked Clippers

For that most important bench player, because there is that sort of like they need someone to be that good. They probably need multiple someone's to be that good. With that said, I know who you've picked in the East because I read the preview. I forgot who you picked in the West until you reminded me. But please reveal for your readers, listeners, your NBA finals pick. I have the Philadelphia 76ers defeating the Golden State Warriors in the NBA finals. That's a good one. That's a good one.

Well, we'll see if it's a good one. I mean, but... Right? Old takes exposed. I am... Okay, so I guess... So you are... I just want to be clear on this. Your vision, you're closing your eyes and seeing James Harden, fourth quarter, game seven of the finals. I'm Rhett. Doc Rivers draws something up and...

Look, I think the Sixers are going to be awesome. I think they were in my inner circle. I had six teams in my inner circle of championship contenders. They were one of the six. So by default, I clearly think they can win. But there are six in that tier for me. And I just can't trust them. I can't trust them enough to pick them to win the East. Make the case.

I think what surrounds Harden and Embiid is a lot stronger and better fitting after the moves they made this offseason. I think...

I think Melton's going to help him a lot. I think Harden's going to be better this year than he was last year. So I'm putting a little bit of faith in that. I think Maxie will be better. I think getting PJ Tucker just helps the way they can match up so much and getting Daniel House too. Like they have real wings now, you know, that they can put in games. They can play PJ Tucker at five if they want to. You know, they have another year from kind of this youth –

contingent with you know Milton and Tybalt and Reed and maybe none of them are amazing but that like they're gonna they're gonna get stuff from their bench this year I think more more than a year ago uh hopefully they won't play five man bench units in the in the playoffs but still um I also like how they match up against Milwaukee in a series and I like how they match up against Boston uh so what do you like what do you like about the Milwaukee matchup for them

I think they could put Tucker on Giannis. And I think for Milwaukee, it's hard for them to play Giannis at five and put him on Embiid. So I think from that perspective, Philadelphia can maybe do some things against Milwaukee that a lot of teams can't. And then against Boston...

I worry a little about their guards defensively, but I also think having Tucker, having Tybill, they have guys they can put on Tatum and Brown and survive. And then Boston might be a little small against Embiid now, depending on what's going on with Robert Williams. So I just like those two matchups in a playoff series. Maybe I'll end up being hilariously wrong, but...

It's a good pick. I mean, like I said, both the teams you picked in the finals are in my inner circle of six contenders. Despite the fact that, is it curious to you as an analytics, as a central figure in NBA analytics, how low the projections are for the Warriors?

In terms of just win total. And it's not just Pelton's. Pelton had them at 42 wins. My own numbers, I was like, what? And I've heard the same thing from teams who have sophisticated models internally. They have told me, beware Golden State's predictions are really low and we're trying to figure out why. And the answer tends to be,

age-related decline for the people around Steph and just so many young guys with no to bad track records now playing big minutes. I don't buy it, but the number of projections, including yours, I guess, that are saying this are piling up and yet you're picking them to win the finals, to make the finals. Yeah, I mean, I put my thumb on the scale, but a lot of those models don't like Klay. So I think that's a big part of it too. How can any...

Those models stink then. Clay is amazing. And also, you just have to – Clay needs to get just five bonus points for living life the right way and being Clay Thompson. My finals pick right now, I'm picking Milwaukee to win the championship.

Okay. Despite some concerns about their depth here and there. I think they're, they're like a little slept on right now. I think. Oh, Dave, I've been, I've been picking them. Dave, I've been saying it for three months. They're my championship pick. I just think Giannis is coming to destroy everybody this year. Um,

I'm picking Milwaukee to win the title. And right now, my finals prediction is going to be Milwaukee Clippers. I really want to go Milwaukee Nuggets. I just... I got to see it with Porter first and see how they're going to shake out their depth and see kind of defensively how they're going to figure it out. I'm still worried they're going to cheap out at the trade deadline too. And I really...

Warriors was, that's the other team that I was, I was clear. I was Bucks Warriors here and there over the last month. The punch makes me a little nervous.

The projections have made me a little nervous. The sheer difficulty of making the finals multiple years in a row makes me a little nervous. So yeah, I'm going Clippers despite what we just said about their players three to 12 being both appealing in depth and not that appealing and high end talent. I'm going Clippers because I think one of those guys pops enough. And as you wrote,

They have a trade in them. It might not be a big one, but they have the ability to tweak the roster one way or another. They have a pick to trade. They have a bunch of fungible salary. I don't know who that player would be, but right now I'm going Bucks over Clippers in the finals. Okay.

All right. Now the other, so we, we each said two teams and we said two different teams, the other two teams in your inner circle to like win a championship, I'm guessing are Boston and Brooklyn. Is that correct? Boston and Denver. Um, Brooke, Brooklyn does not gain entry into the inner circle until, until, uh, as much as until they prove otherwise they are in, they are in their own circle of hell somewhere. Right. And, um,

I mean, I think you had them 49 wins. Did you have them 49 wins? Yeah, I had them 49 wins in the fourth seed. That seems right to me. Like, I get the championship upside. I get it. Like, we all get it. It's Kevin Durant, one of the 10 to 12 greatest players of all time at worst, with shooting, talent, two other all-star, all-NBA level players, in theory, who fit needs. Like, we all get it. We also have all lived the last two years of life.

Like, I've lived it. Like, I've played almost as much NBA basketball in the last calendar year as Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons. Like, not that far away. Me. Me. And I can't guard anyone. And just the defense question of if Simmons and Claxton can't play together. They've had little snippets in the regular season of, ooh, maybe they can. I don't know how you get a defense that's better than average out of this group. But maybe they can. I just...

49 wins feels like the right just sort of throw it right down the middle and see what the hell happens because it could be a disaster. It could be 55 wins. I got no idea, but they can't be in my inner circle.

Yeah, I mean, I had other teams that I picked to win more games. So that's interesting that you have Denver in the inner circle too, because defensively in the playoffs, I just think there's too many questions about them. I just know what I saw, and you as a smart person will laugh at how small the sample size is. What I saw when Murray, Porter, Jokic, and Gordon were all on the floor together before Murray tore his ACL was like, oh my God.

level good. And KCP is a perfect fifth starter for them. Bruce Brown is a perfect sort of sixth starter, I guess, in a way. I like that pickup a lot. And, you know, look, the depth after that, I think, is every team's got depth questions after that when you start talking about how they fare against the best teams. But between

you know, Jeff Green and Bones Highland. And they're high on the Brown kid, the Christian Brown and Zeke Nagy. And I just think they'll have some answers. But, you know, we'll see. I could be unreasonably high on the Nuggets for sure. Mr. Hollinger, it's always a pleasure to see you. Have all 30 of your previews come out yet? Yeah, the last ones came out today. So these previews are just – if you want to prime around the NBA season –

Get a cup of coffee or a beer tonight. A cup of coffee today, a beer tonight.

Sit in front of your laptop and read John Hollinger's 30 team previews. They will get you ready for every angle of every team and they're not super long. Just tremendous stuff. John, it's good to see you. I will see you somewhere down the NBA lineup. Where's your first trip? Can you reveal where your first trip is going to be? Like opening week or two of the season, where are you going to be? Yeah, I mean, so I actually went to see Victor Wimbanyana last week. So that was my first trip. So you're going to France soon, I guess? Yeah.

No, unfortunately, no. Brad Turner has those trips on lockdown, I think. No, I'm going to go to...

in like two weeks. Staples, you know, there's a bunch of games in a row. So I'll be doing that. And I'll be going to the, no, I think my first game is the Seattle Beef Bowl. Ben Carroll versus DeJounte Murray here in Atlanta. Oh, that's exciting. There you go. I forgot about that. All right, John Hollinger, read his stuff at The Athletic. Listen to him on Hollinger. Duncan, podcast with Nate Duncan. It's great to see you, buddy. Thanks for the time. Thanks, Zach. Thanks, Mark.