Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap
I believe that this will be the most important election of our lives because this country is headed in a horrible, horrible direction. You saw what took place today in Israel, and we're going to talk about that in a second. But this country is just headed so badly. The Israeli attack was made because we are perceived as being weak and ineffective and with a really weak leader. And we will discuss it in a few minutes.
So, Mike Murphy, I don't think I need to introduce the speaker there. Yep, a plague. But it was as night follows day, Donald Trump was quick to seize on this horrific terrorist attack by Hamas in Israel to point a finger at the White House. We can talk about the political implications in a minute, but I'm reeling, brother.
Just watching these reports, I've got so many friends there. And I have friends, frankly, in Gaza as well, who are now innocents who were wrapped up in this horrible situation, this horrible disaster, this catastrophe that was brought on by this terrorist attack. So we just need to note the horrific nature of this before we descend into our normal
uh cynical banter exactly yeah no no it's soul-crushing um and and the the murderers at hamas have constructed this thing so when they're not slaughtering israeli civilians they're setting up uh forcing israel into an invasion of the third densest place in the world which is going to kill a lot of
Palestinian civilians, which of course will fuel their interest to keep the generational cycle of hate going on infinitely. So they're, they're a rare organization that feeds on the death of both people. They profess to help and people they have a maniacal hatred from. So on every level, it is grim and heartbreaking and, uh,
When you think about it, you know, say 900 to a thousand Israelis murdered. Look at the population. Israeli has the population of Los Angeles County. That's like 22, 23,000 Americans being slaughtered. And this cycle is going to accelerate. And that's the malicious intent. So you would think with all the advancements in our,
abilities as humans but nope nope there's uh just a murder spree uh triggered by these people and what kind what kind of banter did you say we engage in oh happy cynical jokey banter yeah so so so to class us up
Yeah, we desperately needed to class up. We finally said, let's get somebody who can save us from all this and help us understand what's going on. The great Amy Walter. Amy Walter from the Cook Report with Amy Walter. Good to see you, my friend. Sorry about the occasion. I can't...
I can't stop watching and reading. And with every moment of it, I'm just plunged deeper into despair. So it is, it is, it's, it's a somber occasion. And you combine that with the atrocities going on in Ukraine, which will continue. And, um,
It feels, I feel like we keep saying this now every year, we're at an inflection point. Something's going to turn, something's going to come out of this. And yet it feels as if we are churning in the same disaster loop.
Okay, this may sound like... I know, I was supposed to get us... No, no, no, no. But this may sound like I'm shifting from the sacred to the profane here, or I don't know. There's profanity involved in what we've just talked about. It's starting to sound like one of my old Jesuits acts. This is an interesting maneuver. But let's talk about the politics, because this is Hex on Tap. Yep. You heard Trump...
And, you know, one of the things that I think he's counting on is a sense that things are out of control. That's what authoritarians always count on. And this just seems like a big log on the fire.
for him. He seems like the most unlikely person in the world to restore calm. Well, that's the funny part. The sick irony is the king of malicious chaos is now seizing upon a moment of chaos. He'll give you more. I'm a contrarian, but one, I don't know. You know, we couldn't get Kreskin today to tell the future.
So I can see it going in multiple ways. But fundamentally, Israel's under real attack. That's a brave forecast, by the way. Yeah, yeah. No, McCain's old joke about why can't I find a one-armed economist? It's always on one hand or on the other hand, these guys. Or when a lawyer says, well, it's 50-50. That's legalese, or I have no idea. But I would say there's a horrifying chance this will escalate.
because the casualties will probably ignite the West Bank and Hezbollah up north. And, you know, we've got a carrier group there, which is a hell of a lot of kabang if needed. And I wouldn't be surprised if American air power could get involved. And Biden will look tough and strong. And we're going to find Americans are not only captured, at least 10 or 11, the White House says, have been killed. I don't think Joe Biden is going to take a peace to weakness approach here. And so...
I think in moments of this, people do kind of go to the president and support the military, should it be. Hopefully, God forbid, it won't escalate. But for all those reasons, I think it'll work against Trump a little. I know it will in the general election, where the last thing we need is a madman during a world crisis. And the Republican Party, you know, they all hate Biden anyway, so I'm not sure that needle moves very much. And I think, I'll tell you, I've been here in New Hampshire for five days. Trump
Trump had his event not far from here. You could smell it if you opened a window. And a lot of local chatter, interestingly, about all the out-of-state license plates there. You know, the traveling Trump feasts. But anyway, Nikki Haley, man, something's happening. And her quote-unquote, and I'm not a super fan, but I prefer to Trump by a mile, her foreign policy expertise is the local topic now. So just, I'll put that in the note of the coming...
So wait, like you scratched off Burgum, you've scratched off Scott, all your... I run a crew bracket here. Yeah, Scott potentially didn't read it. Get out of the race. I want him to drop out tomorrow. Burgum, Secretary of Energy, maybe. I doubt it now. Out, out, out. Christie, thanks. It's been a big laugh. Out. Yeah, we're not fooling around. We got a Trump to get rid of here, Republican Party. Amy, there are gatherings of donors going on.
There's one, I think, today in Utah. By the way, just on the previous point, speaking of today, the president's going to be speaking later today to your earlier point, Mike. And I think it's a point well taken. You know, a lot depends on how he reacts in this moment. But Amy, Mitt Romney is convening his speech.
E2 conference, that's his donor conference to hear from a number of candidates. Interestingly, I don't think DeSantis is among them. I think it's Haley and Christie and Burgum and Scott, maybe. I don't know. And then there's another group that's meeting down in Texas that the now famous Harlan Crow, a friend of Clarence Thomas, is convening that has some heavy hitters there.
All trying to all trying to agree on who the last sort of defensive back who might tackle Donald Trump before he runs to the goal line here would be. What do you make of all of that? It is kind of remarkable to see a donor class that is still convinced that it can wrest the party back from Donald Trump.
It would make some sense in it made sense in 2016 when it was clear that, you know, Republican voters were kind of divided on on Donald Trump, even among evangelical voters. Those were some of the most skeptical because they didn't really buy the fact that he was really pro-life or that he would really follow through on some of his promises he made on social, cultural issues.
Now those are all gone. Any sort of wavering support from that group of voters has been sort of poofed in the air. And so I get it. I get if you are a donor to the party and you are frustrated with the direction that it's taking, you're looking at the House right now in total disarray. You see Donald Trump and his brand of chaos everywhere.
as further sidelining the party, especially when it comes to winning back the White House. You don't want to see another four years of Joe Biden. But I don't get the rationale for...
another, either one, another candidate to jump in. A lot of donors now rallying around Glenn Youngkin. I don't get that. I don't know what need he fills. And what nobody seems to be able to figure out is how to unite these two very disparate forces within the Republican primary electorate, which is
the Mike Murphy never Trump wing, which is, I don't know, what, 15, 20%? I prefer massive army, but go ahead. Small, but elite. Mike Murphy, whose tombstone is going to read, it's still early. All right. I'm going to think of the most humiliating bet now. When he's right, well, you know...
David, you'll have to go back on bended knee. If Murphy is right, I will say two things. One is I'm astonished, but even a stop clock is right once every day.
or twice a day, I guess. And the second will be, I'm grateful. I'd be happy to be wrong. I'm not rooting for Donald Trump. No, look, and if you put a gun to my head, I would say the odds of Trump being the nominee are higher than anybody else. I mean, I'm not Nostradamus here, but I think we're going to have a primary. I think it's going to be bumpy in the early states for Trump. And I think Nikki in particular now has a shot. I think this donor thing is pretty simple.
They're all, all donor bundler types all have the same two questions in politics. What's going on and what should I do?
And they started with DeSantis and that imploded. Then they went to Scott and no campaign ever broke out. Now they're with Nikki because she's got something going and she's been the best performer, which a lot of people thought going in she would be. Look at the new FTC reports, which are creeping out now. DeSantis was $6 million cash on hand. That's the presidential equivalent of two bits. She's got 11. And her campaign was in real cash flow trouble 100 days ago.
So the donors don't dictate the outcome, but she's going to wrap up that E2 thing in a big bow and take it home. Although they're all going to wind up somewhere already there. So that'll give her the bullets if she has that window to make a try to make a try. You know, so there is the money can make a difference, but it doesn't. I'm with Amy on this. It doesn't rule the outcome.
Uh, but it helps her. And again, there are two, you see a lot of her stuff here in New Hampshire. I'll be interested to see. I mean, one of the things she's benefited from has been, uh, not being in the spotlight throughout this process. DeSantis wilted under it. Yeah. Haley is very good. She's a tremendous performer. Uh,
She's also sort of notorious for trying to slice the salami too thin, give very cute answers. Too clever by half is her Secret Service codename. That's one why I've been a big critic of her. But maybe that's what we need to beat Trump. It could be. It could be. And that's maybe what she's going to, because she's going to get grilled out at that E2 summit about raising her hand when they asked if they would support Trump.
Trump, even if he were a convicted felon, you know, those...
And she may make the practical argument that, hey, I'm trying to win. But it does speak to Amy's point. It does speak to Amy's point, though, Mike, which is, you know, she talks about the disparate elements of the Republican Party. I think you may be part of the desperate element of the Republican Party. No, no, no. I just see a possible scenario. That's all I'm saying. And Nikki's going to—one reason she'll do well is she's got the heat, and I think Mitt will be winking a little. Second—
in a foreign policy crisis, she's a... Yeah, no, this thing helps her. Oh, she'll be up there. She'll pronounce the bad Hamas guy names correctly, unlike most candidates. That's too advanced for her. I mean, try to find a member of Congress on, frankly, either side. And she'll be impressive. And she looks like a winner. She looks like a Biden beater.
And she looks like the one who could take out Trump. And she's the only one running a campaign in Iowa and New Hampshire. So buys her a shot. It could be. It could be like John Belushi in Animal House where where she calls out the names of each of these Hamas leaders correctly. And this is dead, dead, dead. No playing cards. Yeah. OK, so you guys, what happens when Donald Trump comes out there and goes, hey, when I was in charge, we had peace there. Abraham Accords. I moved the.
uh you know uh moved the embassy to jerusalem bad guys they didn't come out when i was there this is his message you know this because you were just listening to it yeah yeah what did putin do nothing yeah what did nothing and that is a i hear that from republican voters too i was at an event where it was you know in tim scott's backyard oh we love tim scott but you know not for president
Right. It's kind of like, why go for Robin when we already have Batman? Yeah, well, that's his chunk, and it's all going to be he's the tough guy, but... And he's done it, and he does what he's doing, and that's great. Good for you, Nikki Haley. You've been at the UN. Fantastic. But he's...
this guy did it and they're not going to mess with him. That's why he's got the plurality right now. I just heard an interesting thing. You know, I get out and around here in central New Hampshire and people recognize me from television once in a while. Don't you do the weather on channel nine? And somebody said, he's not the same Trump he used to be, which was just an interesting tell rock rib Republican can't decide who to be for kind of like Stasanis, by the way, you know, a bill Clinton once said strong and wrong beats weak and right.
And I think that's what Trump... Yeah, that's clearly where Trump is going, that he's just going to look strong. And it does bring up the issue of...
of Biden. I mean, Biden, you're right. He can strengthen himself here potentially. You know, it's possible that he'll do that. But his problems are not sort of command of the material. His problem is performance, you know, oriented. And I just, you know, before all of this went down, I was watching his press conference on the economy on Friday because he always comes out when the jobs report comes up.
And he got asked the obvious question by a reporter, which is if the news is so good, why do people feel so bad? And this was his answer. You started your remarks here today by saying it was good news today with the economic report. Why do you think most people still don't feel positive or feel good news about the economy? Well, first of all, you just heard the news today, too. They haven't heard it. I think the people of 300 plus thousand people who got jobs feel better about the economy. I'd look.
I got to choose my words here. You all are not the happiest people in the world, what you report. And I mean it sincerely. It gets a more, you get more legs when you're reporting something that's negative. I don't mean you're picking on me. I'm just the nature of things. You turn on the television.
And there's not a whole lot about boy saves dog as he swims in the lake, you know. It's about somebody pushed the dog in the lake. That is a loser's lament. Okay. I always tell my kids.
clients or my when I when I was in the business, I'd tell my clients, if you if you blame if you're blaming the media, you're losing. You're probably losing. And, you know, that's not the reason why people the news media isn't responsible for how people feel about the economy. You know, what's responsible is that.
They're judging it through the lens of inflation and prices. Yeah, yeah. No, I agree. Now, as the quote, the great philosopher, George Herbert Walker Bush, why not harvest moon? It...
And, you know, he's right, by the way. The media, it's the old Ailes rule, the orchestra pit, you know. He lost, by the way. Yeah, but it's, well, no, Bush did. Why never wind a day in his life? We could use a few more presidents like him. No, I understand. But, I mean, the point is that, you know, he was victimized by people's feelings about the economy. No, no, that's the point. Perception is reality. And, look, I've argued this.
that biden's a bad candidate i've argued that fear i wrote a sub stack biden drop out of the damn race have a friend tell you the truth he's being very selfish in a time where trump is a viable threat running so i'm with you well i'm past that because well yeah it's over yes i think he's running and he's going to be the nominee of the democratic party uh and uh all i'm saying is um
don't do that. I understand why. But he can't not. He says, wait a minute, I brought some statistics. And if you read this, you know you owe me your vote for what I've done for you. I've said it before. It's the old incumbent thing. And I say this from experience. If you know you're going to get C's and D's,
Don't be so eager for report card day. Don't turn it into a referendum. The fact of the matter is that, I mean, I don't believe that Joe Biden, and we could probably get a lively debate on it, I don't believe he's responsible for
you know, for the majority of this inflation or any of it, because you look at the rest of the world and they're experiencing it as well. But that doesn't mean right. The political reality, it doesn't make a difference. I tried to warn you. Remember a year ago, this inflation is going to be big. But I was mocked yet again. Mike, I mean, I have this argument with friends all the time.
friends of your stripe, whatever, or maybe it's plaid. I don't know. You're ilk. You ought to give me the ilk. You're ilk. You know, it would be more persuasive if the rest of the world weren't experiencing, and in many cases, deeper inflation. This is a global issue, and there are a lot of elements to it. Yeah, but we, of course, spend like money is made of nothing. But we're tabled that. We have a whole four-part series on our economic disagreements.
To the politics, Amy, do you think Biden is somebody, picking up what Axe said, who can start to move to a domestic economy message that resonates people rather than correcting them, which I'm with Axe on this, is a very...
bad political recipe? Is he capable? Yeah. Well, his campaign is. And so if you look at the ads that he's running now, that the campaign is running in those battleground states, they go directly at that. Look at all the good stuff that's coming our way here in Pennsylvania, right? We got the good jobs. Things are getting back on track. He understands working people. And this feels, I mean, David, he's
You obviously were in the front row seat here, but it feels very similar to where we were at this point in 2011, where it was, what is Obama going to do with this economy? People don't feel better. They don't think we're out of it. And it became both a, the Obama message was not only do we
Are we in a better place out of the ditch, etc.? But this Romney guy,
He doesn't understand regular people. He's not going to help regular folks. It's the contrast. We changed the focus. You changed the debate. That's right. From whether the economy was good or bad to who's going to fight for working people. And that was a- And that's kind of what Biden's trying to do, too. That was a 14-month campaign that began in September of 2011. Biden does have a new ad, and he has a new ad that is much closer to the mark.
In that he talks about this, about fighting to bring down costs for working people, taking on the pharmaceutical companies and so on.
But there's still an element. It's all about him. He's got to throw this into the context of a fight, a fight with interest groups that are predatory and fight with Trump, who did nothing about any of these things. Yeah, I agree with that. Forward message would help him a lot. I think it ought to be motive. You know, he's fighting for America. Trump's fighting for Trump on a revenge tour. And the quicker they get there, the better.
And he's got to forget. He's not going to get credit right now. I know. And he wants it so bad. Here are 28 things I did last Thursday. I took a call from Congressman. You know, it's just anyway, every incumbent wants to do that. Biden is so classic. How many times have you been in meeting X where I've written down a list of my 82 top accomplishment, put it in the ad.
You know, tell people what I've done for those idiots. He's always sort of been that way. He was, you know, he was eager back in the day when we were going through what we were going through in the Obama administration to, you know, I think he was maybe the author of the idea of recovery summer in 2010, which turned out disaster before the midterms because people weren't ready to declare. Yeah, they don't buy it.
You can't jawbone people into feeling what they don't feel and what they're not experiencing. By the way, a couple of ramifications of this war that's erupted in the Middle East. This does not portend well for energy prices, which is going to be a pain in the neck for... $7 gasoline in L.A., over $7, with our communist gas taxes out there. And...
And, you know, I do, I mean, I'm really worried about what this means for his Ukraine policy. There's going to be a competition for resources here. And those Republicans who have drifted off on Ukraine now can, you know, certify their toughness by supporting Israel.
and continuing to walk away from Ukraine. It's just a very complicated matrix for him. But on the cost front, I think this thing could have some ramification. But he's got to get it into that comparative mode. That's the bottom line. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. ♪
Do you guys think that this war will impact on the speaker's fight? And let me tell you, as a prelude, let me just run a clip from Mike McCall, the chairman of the
House Foreign Affairs Committee. Can you and your fellow lawmakers provide more congressional aid to Israel when you don't have a Speaker of the House? Well, it's not ideal. It wasn't my idea.
to the speaker, I thought it was dangerous. You know, I look at the world and all the threats that are out there and what kind of message are we sending to our adversaries when we can't govern, when we're dysfunctional, when we don't even have a speaker in the house.
I mean, how does Chairman Xi in China look at that when he says democracy doesn't work? How does the Ayatollah look at this, knowing that we cannot function properly? And I think it sends a terrible message. So I think they're caucusing tonight and they're going to hear from the candidates, Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise.
I imagine this is going to be a big part of the discussion tonight, that whatever we do, we got to end this thing quickly. We can't let it drag on because we're looking like assholes in the middle of a global crisis. I thought that was the master plan of the Republican House conference. What can we do to be assholes today? Jordan, pipe up. If that were the case, they would have declared victory long ago. I was joking on Twitter that Jordan would be the brilliant opening move of our
three-step plan to give the house to the Dems. Oh, my goodness. Yeah, one of the fault lines under this is Scalise is on yes on Ukraine. Jordan is no. Well, I don't know that Scalise is... Yeah. I don't think that... He's officially no now, but he's really yes. Maybe, but I don't know if he can afford to be... Nice, Murphy. You just stuck a knife in his back right there. No, no. He's going to win, I predict. Jordan's got a ceiling. All the old bulls are for Scalise...
You know, and Scalise is a beloved guy fighting cancer right now. He's a grown up. The defense world likes him a lot better because in Trump, there is Trump fatigue in a good way. Remember, secret ballot is is to end this with Scalise. And that's also a bit of a punt because who knows in two years. The other big fight, of course, is do we keep this stupid ejector button motion to vacate things? So we're all back doing this in six weeks.
And they're trying to get workarounds. It's hard, but they're trying. It is. So if you say there is, well, let's even say 85, 90 percent of the caucus that agrees with what you all are saying, this is we need to look organized. We need to. I haven't said a word yet. I'm waiting. I'm waiting for you. If you are. I think there is a consensus within the conference that we need to get our act together and get a speaker. No doubt about it.
But there's still 15 percent or so who are going to be unable to see this beyond anything but a domestic, internal, we need to get what we can out of this fight. This is not they're not seeing this through the lens of how we're perceived by the rest of the world. They're seeing it as what is this going to mean?
for us in terms of what we're able to do and get within Congress, how are we going to be able to push an agenda that we want, right? Tougher on the border, tougher on Biden, for sure on fiscal issues in terms of whatever. The point being, I don't know that it's going to be that quick of a
consensus around one person. Nobody seems to be able to get close to 217 right now. And then you have McCarthy in there saying, well, you know, I'm still here. It was sort of pathetic. He saw the he saw the vacuum and he just filled it. Can you imagine that the eight who voted against McCarthy, that that three of them
Or four of them are going to now turn around and vote for him. Oh, I was wrong. We're in crisis. No, no, that was a death rattle. I think that every member in a marginal district, and there are 12 or 14 of them, they have to want Scalise to win this election because Jordan is such a polarizing candidate.
And he would be a terrible candidate for them. And I think that, I guess, Amy, I agree with Mike that I would bet that Scalise in the secret ballot will get more votes than Jordan. The question is, will they agree? Will they agree to, as a caucus, will they agree to abide by Scalise?
the outcome of that vote. And I think that's what the big battle is going to be tonight, because I think there'll be some who will be resistant to that. But let me ask you a question. Trump rolled in here and plunked his chips down on his guy, Jordan, who is, of course, the ultimate Trump loyalist. And probably it would be a guarantee that they will move forward on some kind of impeachment
vote if Jordan becomes the speaker. But there's a gamble here for Trump, isn't there? Doesn't he look... Right. I'm always worried when I say, gee, isn't he going to pay a price for this? Because he never pays a price. But I mean, if you're the all-powerful leader of the party and you step forward and you put your chips down on someone,
You damn well better make sure that that person wins or you don't look. Well, yeah. Test your strength. Yeah. You're Superman. You got to lift up locomotives all the time. And all of a sudden, God, this thing's a little heavy and he loses. It's a referendum on Trump. Lighting the fuse of the Trump may be the emperor of no closed narrative into the early primaries. Standing out there with a blowtorch. Mike Murphy. Yeah. Oh, just a light fuse. That old Sparky is ready to go.
What's interesting, when you talk to folks in that moderate conference or who are around, they don't like to be called moderates now. They're sort of pragmatists. Right, right. But in the governing wing of the party. That's like progressive Democrats. Exactly, not liberals. And by the way, the word I'll never read, ultra liberal. I've been hearing ultra right all week in The New York Times, four or five times an article, but there are no ultra liberals. Doesn't exist. The fact that they haven't come out
Nothing's unanimous. I get that. But that we haven't had a more robust statement to what you all are pointing out, saying we need Steve Scalise here. You may not like everything about him, but in terms of protecting those most vulnerable members, he's our best choice. But you're not...
hearing that, and there's an openness, at least in people that I'm talking to, from members there to listen to Jordan, who is now saying, I'm a different person. Don't worry. That was my old... I was young. I was young, and I was reckless. I bought a sport coat. I'm changing. Yeah, right. I'll wear a jacket. Yeah, it's like Charlie Manson at the parole board. You know, I've been reading the Bible. The one thing you do hear about Scaliso that's kind of a proxy for that is...
And he's well known. He can raise money, which is something that voters don't think about, but members think a lot about. Yes, because they lost that with McCarthy was the number one fundraiser for candidates. Yeah. Jordan's not getting invited to the donor conference. No, no, exactly. Where all of our, your friends are. Yeah. He's like the old cannibal ambassador joke. Send me another ambassador. Last one was delicious. A staffer for a member quoted their member and said to me, it was pretty funny, which is, you
Yeah, Jordan will hop on a plane and fly out to your district to talk about Jordan anytime you want. Scalise will get you money. Yeah, no, Scalise is in the model of the kind of person who members in their heart of hearts want because he will tend to their needs and not his own. That is true. The question is, do these extreme, you know, does the entrance of Trump
into this mix, factor into it? And does Jordan have a better chance to deliver the sort of crazy caucus
and get to 218. I mean, I think those are the two questions. And how fast can Scalise, if he leads at the beginning, get to the number? That's the real question, because if he can't, then it'll turn, and then somebody else may pop out, an alternate non-Georgian. Yeah, but I think, you know, what you hear from all of them, like I heard Burkett this morning,
talking on CNN about this, and he voted against McCarthy, and he said he was absolutely certain that they would have a unified position by Wednesday.
So, uh, I think it's going on as we record this right now, they're doing card tricks and impersonations are having their big, like quote, quote debate and over in one of the conference rooms. Yeah. Yeah. I wouldn't you like to be a fly on that wall? Oh God. No, I'm sure it's right up there at the Roman Senate. We could put a, uh,
If we could just slip a correspondent from Hacks on Tap in that room. No one would notice you guys. Just put on a mustache and a hat. Well, we're no soon enough. We'll be gabbing about it next week. And does it change anything? I guess that's the question you all, which is regardless of who is chosen as speaker, we still have the following issues. And I think...
Republicans who sit in those swing seats know this too. We still have to fund the government, which are we going to be any closer to a deal figuring out how to do that by November?
whatever, 17th? Harder. Probably not likely. Are we any closer to a funding deal for Ukraine? Is it going to get mixed in with more money to Israel, putting a package together there? There's going to be a border security piece to all of this, and that is going to be a mess. I think the border security piece is the key. And if I were Biden, I would probably accept almost anything that they propose.
It would do him a favor if he's drag kicking and screaming to a more aggressive border posture. Because I'm telling you guys, I'm sitting in Chicago. I'm not now sitting in Chicago, but I generally am sitting in Chicago. The temperature on this immigration issue is just rising by the day. And they're sending not two...
or one buses a day, but 25 buses a day, because I think someone's realized, hey, the Democratic convention's in Chicago next year. It'd be fun to have a city encircled by 10 tents of immigrants and lots of people protesting. So, I mean, this is something he has to try and resolve. And the Republicans can actually be helpful here. No, it's good cop, bad cop. Let the Republicans go crazy, avoid a shutdown.
And then you get to say, when people say the Republicans have gone too far, damn right, vote Democrat. And if Republicans help solve the border problem by being goonish, hey, you know, we've solved the border problem. But it also may create some sort of deal where you can pass Ukraine funding through. I don't think Israel funding is going to be the...
I don't think that's going to be the issue. That's done. The question is, does it escalate? And are we wiping out Hezbollah in the north with Karen or air power? But you all, the border thing, and I've asked the same question, David, because it does seem politically like
a win-win situation if you're the White House to say, we get Ukraine and we also to, yeah, to quote unquote lose on the border. But it's not just about, let's put more money and troops or whatever. And it is going to be on policies that really divide the Democratic Party. Are we going to remain in Mexico? No.
and deportations. You know, you've been there, but... I completely understand the volatility of the issue and the sensitivity of the issue. And I mean, you know, I've said it before here. I'm the
I'm the son of a refugee, right? I'm so grateful to this country for that. And I sympathize with the people who are coming here under incredible duress and risk because their conditions are so bad. But we can't deal with it right now. We literally are overrun and something has to change. We have to reset.
And, you know, I just think we have to be honest about that. And Biden has to be. You're not going to, you know, at this point, I think the risk is not rupturing the Democratic base, but diminishing it.
because so many people in our cities are feeling the burdens. Do you take the pain internally from the comrades, which is a noisier pain, or do you put yourself in a vulnerability in the general, which is a more abstract but deadlier pain, if you're in a relic? Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back. ♪
Eclipsed by all the horrific news was the spectacle of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. yesterday. Oh, yeah. Independently verified is insane. Here he is. This country is ready for a history-making change. They are ready to reclaim their freedom, their independence. And that's why I'm here today. I'm here to declare myself an independent candidate. Yeah!
The question is, who does this help and who does this hurt? And this is like the big debate. I'm personally of the mind that anything that lowers the threshold ultimately helps Trump because he has a high floor and a low ceiling. You know, you hear the argument and he's like Bobby Kennedy with his crazy conspiracy theories is far more popular now with Republicans and Democrats. One of the reasons he got out of the Democratic primary. But
You know, he's still Bobby Kennedy Jr. I don't know. I mean, I think that I continue to believe that Biden needs a kind of
Binary choice. That's the right word between him and Trump. Yeah, no, you're totally right. It's just like no labels. Anything that lets people off the hook from holding their nose and voting for Biden is good for Trump. By the way, Amy, Cornel West made it official last week, too, that he's now an independent. Yeah, purely coming out of Biden.
Changing to independent in some ways. Well, that's better. That's better than him running on the Green Party line.
I think is helpful. That is true. That is true. And ballot access, by the way, is an issue here because it's not easy. It's easy to say you're running as an independent. There was a rumor last week that I helped circulate because I thought it was credible that, uh,
that Elon Musk was going to throw some dough behind Bobby Kennedy Jr., he's going to need a lot of dough if he's going to run as an independent, because it costs a lot of money and a lot of time and a lot of effort to get onto these state ballots.
or many of these state ballots as an independent. So how do you as a campaign? I mean, I'm fascinated by this question about the third party because we have our recent memories, certainly 2016, most recent memory of your point, David, which is Trump's low ceiling, high floor. All of the all of the vote comes from
the Democratic candidate. And it was clear in 2020 when those third party candidates went out and voted in a binary choice, they all went to Biden, not all of them, but big majority. So I get that. At the same time, there is frustration too among Republicans with Trump that there wasn't even in 2020. And that there are plenty of sort of disaffected Trump voters who are in no way ever gonna vote for Joe Biden.
but also feel like, oh, I don't know if I can do a third Trump. If I am a campaign, if I'm the Trump campaign, I guess the question is this. Do you go and spend as much time and effort in communities where you know that your support is
is not going to be very high. Younger voters, voters of color, but you just spend time in those communities pushing a message that Biden isn't doing anything. This is a waste of your time to come and vote for this old guy who hasn't delivered on any of the promises. We understand why you're cynical and frustrated.
Come and vote for Robert Kennedy. At least he understands or Cornel West. Right. I mean, isn't that what you would do if you're the Trump campaign? Just go and try to push any of those. You put a million into Atlanta and Detroit for Cornel West. Yeah. Well, not just the Trump campaign, but the Russians and other.
I mean, I think you're going to see a hail of social media along that line. So what do you do if you're the Biden campaign in dealing with it? Well, I think you've got to expose it. Look, you have to raise the stakes of the election. That's right. And you have to make people believe that the things they care about are deeply at risk. And, you know, for young people, you know, now, Bobby Kennedy is good on climate.
as far as they're concerned. And he's good on abortion, which is something that may drive some of these Republicans away from him. But he's, you know, batshit crazy on some other things. Yeah, well, X is right about you turn up the temperature because often the history of these wrong track election independents, the George Andersons and kind of the wine and cheese sector, the Perots. John Anderson. John Anderson, excuse me, Illinois congressman, liberal Republican who had kind of an interesting independent candidacy.
As people go there as kind of a frolic for a while. Well, I'm for Anderson. You know, neither party is really Earth. I'm for Perot. He's going to get rid of the pointy-headed bureaucrats borrowing a Wallace line because Perot had a lot of that vibe. At the end, when the stakes go through the moon, the independents tend to shrink.
And so you need that to work. You need the African-American community to say we get Cornell, but stab Biden in the back. You get a Klansman as president of the United States. I mean, you get to the primal stuff late and you close it in a lot of states. The place I'd most worry about Cornell West is on campuses in Madison and places like that. I remind you that John Anderson got 7 percent of the vote in 1980, I think.
And I don't think much of it came from Ronald Reagan. I think a lot of it came from Jimmy Carter. He was key. He was key. But he got into the mid-20s. On my list of headaches, if I'm the White House, this third party and independent stuff is probably top of list. Absolutely. Because you don't want these defaults. That's right. But you can't control whether they exist. What you can control is messaging to suffocate them at the end and make them irrelevant.
I mean, I just think that this whole thing right now requires a real focus on the stakes and the choice. As we said earlier, forget about the report cards. You're not going to just make this a, you know, focus on the stakes here and micro target to potential supporters who might drift
the stakes on things that they care about and get credible spokespeople, credible advocates who care about the things that those people care about and have credibility with them. I mean, it's not rocket science, but it really requires a lot of activity. It's an easy thing that's an incredibly hard thing. Fix Biden on message.
The fix is easy. Getting him to go there is hard. Yeah, well, but the thing is, you can do a lot of things around him. That is a piece of it, but there's also the machinery around him, and all that has to happen. All right, we're going to take a minute to pay the bills, and we'll be right back. All right, Murphy. Biden needs a jingle. 23 skidoo, time to go with you.
Okay, let's go to our questions here now. You did that for Dewey, didn't you? Yeah, no, no, it's the same tune. Well, that's like Bobby Goodman, you know, Jingle King. It was like, yeah, how many states have three syllables? I sold that one to 21 people, put my kid through dental school. Hey, come back to 2023 here for a second, and let's look at these questions here. Okay, if you have a question for the Hacks, you can send it to us at our special Gmail address, hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com.
gmail.com and don't forget to check out our book club. I think we're out of time for a plug today, but go to our website, hacksontap.com slash book club to see a bunch of cool books. Our friends and guests have suggested.
And then finally, we've gone all futuristic here. You can leave a voicemail question for us, but there's a rule. We do the bloviating around here, so keep it under 20, 22 seconds or Hannah the Axe will snip it and you're not going to hear yourself. So short and sweet. Love to hear from you. All you got to do is leave a voicemail.
call our impossible to forget number seven, seven, three, three, eight, nine, four, four, seven, one. That's access bookies outfit in the back booth at Manny's in Chicago. Cause we wouldn't pay the 10 bucks a month for a one 800 number. One more time. Seven, seven, three, three, eight, nine, four, four, seven, one. And all you got to do is leave a voicemail. Don't forget to tell us your name. Uh,
And if it's a great question, you're going to hear it right here on Hacks on Tap. Okay, Hacks, question one. Hello, gentlemen. Chris Rodinez in California with my question. What is to prevent moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans from agreeing to have a speaker who is one of them and then splitting up the committee chair positions and all of that and completely ignoring the MAGA Republicans and the woke Republicans?
Democrats and having a normal parliamentary style Congress. Thanks, Chris. That's right out of my dream journal. The problem is one moderate Democrats are about five of them and moderate Republicans, maybe 20. So they don't have the numbers to do it. And it goes against the tribal rule of gravity, sadly enough, in American politics, which is hang on to power at all costs. So
We're too polarized for that, even though it would be a good idea. And there was even talk of doing it. Fred Upton, Axe's other congressman from Western Michigan, and a dear old friend of mine who was one of the impeachment votes and left the Congress after his distinguished career, was kind of mentioned. But in the old lament, they don't have the votes. All right. You got one for me? Okay.
Live from Steve. This is Steve in Chicago. And my question is for both Murphy and Axelrod. What's the harshest truth you had to personally deliver to your presidential candidate during the heat of a campaign that he was initially very angry about, but later thanked you for? Thank you. Great question. Yes. I don't know that candidates ever
fully thank you in those situations, but they may acknowledge, they may acknowledge, tacitly acknowledge. Mine was having to tell President Obama the night before the first presidential debate in Denver that our last run through was a little rough and we needed to work on a few things. He did not receive that message well, I think partly because he knew that it hadn't gone well. And of course, the debate the next day didn't go well.
either, because presidents almost invariably bungle the first debates. They do for a variety of reasons we can go into another time. But yeah, he was unhappy, but the debate went poorly and he recognized that the debate had gone poorly and that he needed to change up how he was approaching them and did very well in the next debate. And I won't, because I know we've been warned that there are children listening, I won't
share exactly what the president told me that night, but it was not something that's going to be in his collected works. I once told a candidate, put your damn pants on. You'll have to wait for my book to hear about that, but I'll tell you a very funny story. Working for a member of Congress running for Senate, brilliant guy, and the staff were all terrified and came to me with quivering voices. You've got to talk to him about his hairpiece. It's terrible. I go, why don't you guys? No, no, we can't. How could we ever tell him?
So I just walked in and said, hey, why don't we get you a better rug? And he said, thank God. I don't know where to get a toupee. I don't even know. And he pulled this dead plastic rat he had off his head. And there was like double-sided tape.
And I called the rug guy from Hollywood, and we got him a really good rug. And then I started getting calls, which I hated, from other esteemed members because I started becoming known as the how to get a good toupee guy, which I quickly sithered out of. But when in doubt, they want the truth. So, hey, we're going to fix your rug. Thank God. When are you writing your book? Bad News Travels Faster.
15 low-down, dirty, rotten tricks and life hacks from the campaign war room. In process. I'll be in touch if a check clears. We've made news here, Amy. Well, let's see. Let's see. It's not a cookbook, and there's not a Kardashian involved, so I'm not sure it'll go, and I'm still finishing up. As you know, Axe, and you know, Amy, writing the proposal is like writing the damn book. Yeah. Too much work. Ah, you're up to it. Yeah. The world needs your wisdom, man. Yeah.
And then it'll be a short book. Yeah, that's true. A lot of pictures. Anyway, what do we got for Amy there, Mike? Okay, we're going to go to one of our retro questions because we will take them by the Gmail address or the voicemail. Thank you to our voicemailers. Here's our retro question. What do you think Gore's chances are? Too retro. Just got to win Tennessee, you all. Just got to go win Tennessee. Okay, this is from Thoughtful Tom.
Non-stop from every news source is, quote, there is no speaker. The House is paralyzed. Yet a speaker pro tem, a.k.a. temporary speaker, was immediately and hilariously given the gavel. Why can't he bring legislation forward or schedule votes? That is a very, very good question. And the short answer is because we've never had anything like this before. In fact, the whole concept of a speaker pro tem is a very new thing that
that was initiated after the 9-11 attacks with the possibility, right, what do we do about line of succession in the event of a terrorist attack or something happens to the speaker? We have to have someone in place. Voila, we have a speaker pro tem who really is their only job, at least in the description of that job, is to facilitate the election of a new speaker, period. Now, there are some who are saying if this
Misha Goss keeps drag, drags out. A little yiddish, always good. There we go. With a speaker election, perhaps we can test the concept of a speaker pro tem and actually set precedent because...
If it's this problematic today, who's to say it won't be problematic if this happens again in the future? We need to set precedent, set real worlds about that. I don't know if you all have been paying attention, though, but Congress doesn't seem very likely to be good at setting precedent. They like to upset precedent. They're good at breaking it. That's what I was going to say. They're good at breaking precedent. So, yeah.
The short answer is we have no idea what a speaker pro tem can do because we've never had a speaker pro tem. At least it's better to have a speaker pro tem than a speaker amateur tem, don't you think? Oh, I'll give you another pun. As we say around the Freedom Caucus, it won't be Kevin because he was a speaker pro dem.
That's a little Republican conference humor for you, man. You don't get this kind of humor on those other podcasts, do you? No, exactly. Amy Ratcher. Thank you so much for joining the hacks. I'm off to New Hampshire to look for, you know what the Vivek yard signs say? One big word.
True. How's that for a Kafka mind bleep? So anyway, it was great to have you. Axe, always a thrill. Yeah, brother. Great to see you. Let's hope for better news in the coming weeks than the news that we had to talk about today. Yes. Bye, all. Bye.