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Burgers, Bills & Billionaires

2025/7/1
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Hacks On Tap

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D
David Axelrod
D
Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
J
John Heilmann
M
Mike Murphy
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David Axelrod: 我担心特朗普打破承诺,使数百万人失去医疗补助。我认为人们总是认为总统是被顾问蒙蔽,而不是自己有问题。我认为民主党很可能赢得众议院,但参议院仍然难以预测。我不会低估Susan Collins的实力,她很狡猾。这项法案将扼杀《平价医疗法案》,使数百万人失去医疗保障。削减医疗补助资金的计划缺乏明智的策略。 Mike Murphy: 我赞扬Tillis展现了政治勇气,但也批评Murkowski为了阿拉斯加的利益而妥协。参议院的幕后交易令人沮丧,但Tillis应该受到赞扬。我可能会留着大胡子,直到参议院对这项法案进行投票。民主党在北卡罗来纳州和佐治亚州很幸运,需要再找到一个机会。由于特朗普的关税政策,中期选举可能会很动荡。这项法案和医疗保险问题可能会使一些共和党席位变得不稳定。Joni Ernst的连任之路充满挑战,但她仍然有优势。在疯狂的时代,可能会需要一个疯狂的参议员。他们声称这项法案不会给联邦政府带来任何成本。我要用这个论点去银行申请抵押贷款。共和党曾经关注债务问题,但现在却让民主党看起来像是财政保守派。 John Heilmann: Tillis现在可以无所顾忌地批评特朗普,因为他不再寻求连任。如果Tillis再次当选,他将不得不继续与那些他不喜欢的人共事。Tillis的反抗是对特朗普的最好回击,因为他可以自由表达自己的观点。我们现在对勇气的要求降低了,但仍然赞赏Tillis的行为。共和党可能会提名一个不靠谱的候选人,就像上次在北卡罗来纳州发生的那样。他们试图削减的资金远超过实际浪费的金额,而且没有明确的计划。他们削减预算的方式很糟糕,而且削减的数额过大。如果聪明地进行,可以节省大量资金,但他们采取的方式过于粗暴。这项法案将损害特朗普选民的利益。顾问们没有告诉特朗普全部真相。 Donald Trump: 如果这项法案不通过,国家将面临大幅增税,但同时我们也在削减成本,不会影响任何人。我不想要风车和太阳能板破坏我们的环境,而且它们都是中国制造的。

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If you work in healthcare, you rely on your training, focus, and team to make decisions. You rely on your mind. But how often do you listen to your heart? Do you want to work in a universal healthcare system that puts people first?

Do you want to live in a welcoming community and care for others in a place that cares about you? If so, follow your heart to British Columbia, Canada. Opportunities await at bchealthcareers.ca. A message from the government of British Columbia. My childhood was tough. I didn't grow up in a warm, supportive home. So the trauma I went through led to something called toxic stress. But it's going to be different for my son. I'm giving him the protection he needs to defend against it. By taking time to play...

even on long days. By offering extra patience, even when it's running short. And giving him the assurance that he's safe here. Learn more at first5california.com. Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy.

So what do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding's not there anymore, guys? When the White House, which is advising the president, are not telling him that the effect of this bill is to break a promise. So, uh,

Murphy, Heilman, what I love about that, this is what happens. How about just say hello, David? How about say, hey, guys? How about that? How about hi? Yeah, hey, yeah, hi. How you doing, guys? I don't know. Okay, hi. How are you guys doing? Murphy, I see your beard is growing. You see, I've got a little stubble, too. I've decided not to shave until the Senate votes on this.

Bill, so I could be a full David Letterman by then. No, I'm telling you, get ready to join the Red Sox because you could have the William Smith cough drop beard here. Yeah, but that was Tom Tillis who staged a revolt over the weekend and ended up...

announcing he wasn't going to run for re-election rather than yielding to Donald Trump instead of sticking up for his state. Yeah, but I love this because people say, well, obviously people are lying to him about what this bill is. Well, yeah, it's always the advisors. If they'd only tell King Edward about the problems here, then, you know, but unfortunately those damn advisors are always screwing everything up. He's such a good man. By the way, I want to salute Tillis.

Yes. Who's shown inklings of good on this topic in other places. But he finally threw the chips down, showed a little political courage, the rarest thing in D.C. now. But I also want to razz Lisa Murkowski, who generally has been pretty good. But they took her in a room and said, hey, look at this. Somebody left a suitcase here. What's in the suitcase? Six billion dollars for Alaska. Oh, so you're signed right here. You're on the bill.

I mean, talk about a cheap payola folding chair maneuver. Very, very, very depressing. It also didn't work out very well because the Senate parliamentarian pulled it out of the bill. I know, but she, you know, she did the evil handshake. I agree that Tom Tillis should be applauded.

It would be real political courage to run for reelection and vote against this bill, you know, to like to take a drop out, you know, as he's like, he's now demob happy. Right. I mean, like, of course, but apparently we're down on the Senate and down on the Senate floor, like just talking to people and like trashing Trump and saying all kinds of stuff like a drunk at the end of the bar, which I love. That's good. Turn them loose. I love that. You have a chainsaw.

But then he'd have to – then there's a chance that he could win, and then he'd have to serve with these guys for another six years. Yeah, that was always Romney saying, I said, Mitt, you got to run again. You have lunch with Cruz every week. Yeah. So –

Yeah, exactly. Fate worse than death. One last thing on Tillis. You know, he got right to the brink of this on the Hegseth appointment. He was the guy who saved Pete Hegseth. At least he's not going to have to defend that during the course of a re-election campaign. I think seeing the consequences of that, watching Pete Hegseth's management of the Pentagon these first six months is what must have snapped him.

like a dry Frito. He's like, I'm sorry, I can't do that again. I can't do that again. Anyway, no, but kudos to him for taking a stand here. And it was kind of the best FU to

Trump, because Trump says, I'm going to recruit a candidate against you. And he says, yeah, you know what? I'm not running. So I can say whatever the hell I want. Though we are grading courage on a curve now, but I'll take it. Yeah, we are. I'll take it. We'll take it. We'll take it. Yes. So anyway. Well, what does it mean, David, for the big, beautiful bill in the Senate? We ought to talk a little about the. Well, and for the Senate and for the Senate and for the control of the Senate in two years, we'll talk about both.

Yeah. Well, let's take the easier question first. I think Democrats are, you know, if they can persuade Governor Cooper, who has been contemplating running the former Democratic governor of

of North Carolina, a popular figure in North Carolina. If they can talk him into running, they've got a good shot at this seat. And even if they don't, it's going to be competitive because it's always competitive. But Cooper would shade this that way. Yeah, he's a Tory Democrat. He's not one of these wild-eyed progressives. And he's culturally a little bit of Clintonian in a good sense, communication skill to him.

So he is their A-list, and I think he's got to decide, do I want a 1 in 25 shot of president or an even money or better shot to enter the Senate? Well, or maybe I just want a life. You know, he's actually—we were discussing our birthdays before we came on.

on here. He's older than you guys. So, I mean, he may just not want, it's possible that he may want a life. Yeah, and the Senate's not bad. That's why they go in, they never want to come out. But he, I spoke to one of his advisors yesterday who said,

50-50 that he runs, maybe 51-49 that he runs. So I think it's very much up in the air, and you know he's going to be the subject of a huge lobbying campaign. The other question is, Murphy, who do the Republicans nominate? Do they get another kind of nutball? Yeah, let's not forget about Mark Robinson. Let's not forget about what happened the last time there was a competitive statewide race. It'll be a primary between single and helix.

Uh, so, you know, I, I will bet against a really strong candidate. I mean, the Dems have gotten lucky in two of these. They're lucky if Cooper runs and cause they're already in the hunt in North Carolina and they were lucky in Georgia.

where, you know, the formidable governor, Kemp, did not run. So now they need one more, right? I'm trying to think, because it is a very Republican map, but it could be. I mean, I'm old enough, as we discussed before we went on the air. I mean, you don't have to carbon date me like Axelrod, but I'm up there. And I was around, as you were, David, for 86 years.

the off year in which the muddy Republican Senate, even though some of those states were pretty good, you know, Alabama, others, different era, less rock solid red, it toppled. And I think this is going to be a bumpy midterm thanks to the tariff genius we have in the White House. So what's the other one? And not just the tariff genius, Mike. I mean, look, this gets us to the big, beautiful bill. Yeah, yeah. And Medicare, Medicare. You know, you think about what's happening with this big, beautiful bill.

You know, there's a bunch of senators who are going to take on water if the bill passes, who are going to have to defend a bill that's going to be, I think, wildly unpopular over the course of the next two years. So there might be a bunch of what you would have thought would be safe, safe-ish Republican seats that suddenly get in play if this thing is as bad as it is. I'm still a skeptic about the Democrats actually taking the Senate.

I think it's highly likely that they'll take the House. But I think the Senate's still a push. We haven't heard on this bill yet from Susan Collins. But, you know, every—it's sort of like fool's gold. Democrats said we're going to beat Susan Collins. There's some value to knowing everybody in the state. I know she's unpopular now. I wouldn't count her. No, she's cagey. She's cagey. Do you guys think Joni Ernst is safe? No.

I wouldn't say safe. I would say advantaged. I would say that too, but this is part of why the politics of this might get real interesting because Joni Ernst has done a bunch of things that are going to make her reelection harder. And that's a state where, again, you wouldn't say the Democrats would be favored in that state, but is that totally out of reach? I don't think it's out of reach. No, I agree. It's a stretch. J.D. Scholten, who's run a couple of times for that congressional seat out in the western part of the state,

Good guy. I like that guy. From Sioux City. He's thrown himself in. He's a state rep now. And a baseball player of some renown. Yes. That's another tariff state, too. Yes, yeah, that's true. And then, you know, one of the other questions is what happens in Texas. I think that's another fool's gold kind of situation. But it sure looks like Cornyn down.

down there is going to lose if he runs against Paxton, the attorney general, who's a stone cold, you know, not just a nut, but a corrupt nut. Well, gentlemen, you forget that crazy times demand a crazy senator. So I wouldn't count him out. Well, if that's the case, this guy's going to win by a landslide. But here's getting to this big, beautiful

Bill, I found the symbolism fantastic that in the midst of this debate a couple of hours ago, Trump puts up on Truth Social a post promoting his latest product, cologne. Because if anything, if any product ever needed to be doused with perfume,

It's this bill. This bill is so... Are you trying to say this bill stinks? Are you trying to say it stinks? I'm not... Yeah, I'm not trying... Yes, I'm trying to say it, but thank you for...

I thought the subtlety would not be lost on our very, very learned listeners. I don't think you've met many of our listeners. Yeah, exactly. You've got to hang out at more truck stops, Axe. Now he's crapping on the three of them. Come on, man. So... Remind me to tell a story about this after you finish your insightful... No, no, no, but I mean, tell your story, but then let's get into why this is such... No, no, just very quickly. I spent last week driving an electric vehicle across the country from...

to New England from Los Angeles. And I'm in the great American Midwest and I pull in to a Casey's and, uh, walk in to pick up something to drink. And I'm charging in the parking lot. And this guy who was right out of trucker central casting kind of side-eyed me across the, uh, and I thought, Oh, you know, I'm going to talk to the local Trump biker chairman. And instead he's like hacks. And he gave me a thumbs up.

So I don't know what big rig you're driving right now, pal. Good man. Yeah, yeah, yeah. We're everywhere. We're going to send Murphy on the road constantly. I don't know how they do it. If I were hauling a freehoff on the flat highway and I'm listening to one of our long spiels, I'd...

right off the road, I'd be asleep. You guys are building on yourself. Yeah, you put eight of them under it. So anyway, back to the politics of the day. This bill has something for everyone to hate. I mean... Oh, I agree. Including Elon Musk, which we'll get to. I was going to say, including EV drivers like me and Mike. Yeah, we're pissed. It has actually brought

I bet you everyone here and Elon Musk on that together, at least one aspect of it. But, uh,

But you're talking about a bill that will take, you know, people aren't including the Affordable Care Act. This will strangle the Affordable Care Act. So in addition to knocking 12 million people off of Medicaid, you know, an estimated another five or six million off of the Affordable Care Act. And it will ultimately strangle the Affordable Care Act because they're doing a bunch of stuff to it.

that will make the health insurance more expensive, that will make access to this less widely available. Well, it's also gutless. I mean, look, I think there is $8 to $10 billion a year in waste inside Medicaid you could take out. I know you say that. No, no, but hang on. Let me finish. Let me finish. Let the man finish. You let the man finish.

The problem is you have to have a smart plan to do it. They're trying to take $70 billion a year out, which is more than even a Medicaid waste obsessive like me could ever find. And there's no plan to find it. Their theory is, well, just choke the thing and let the states figure it out, which means a few states might be smart about this, but it's still more money than they can get. And a bunch of states are going to be stupid. So it's like the dumbest

possible way to go after something that's legitimate and they're doing it at 5x the real ability to the real target yeah well that's just this is a microcosm of the way they're approaching uh budget cutting generally i mean every one of us can attest to the fact and i sat sat in the

government for a couple of years. So I can, I was an eyewitness. There's a ton of money to be saved if you do it intelligently. But if you just kind of take a meat axe to a meat axe to everything, but here you go ahead, John, just the number is just way too big. It's just, that's right. There's no, you could be a smart, you could be, you could do this in the smartest, most careful, cautious way possible. And you're not going to get anywhere near the kind of number that they need. The math doesn't work to extend these tax cuts.

it make them permanent and finance them in a way that's remotely deficit neutral. So they end up, they're, they're just looking for big numbers and it's going to crush not only, I mean, I'm not, this is not a liberal thing. As Steve Bannon often says, MAGA is on Medicaid. It's going to be, it's going to brutalize a bunch of Donald Trump's voters, millions of them. Yeah. He was on, by the way, I don't have the, the, the audio, but he was, uh,

He was out this morning and they asked him and he was he said, yeah, I don't want them going crazy with cuts. Well, Donald, stay tuned. But we do have some tape. We do have some I don't think they call it tape anymore. Do we have some sound audio? We have some sound of Trump talking about this bill.

If that bill doesn't pass, the country will get a 68% tax increase. So think of this: You're a Democrat and you vote against it. That means you're voting in favor because essentially you're voting in favor of the largest tax hike in the history of our country. And you can't do that. In addition, we're cutting costs by $1.7 trillion and it won't affect anybody. It's just fraud, waste and abuse.

Okay, so how much bullshit can you pack into one comment? It's like a haiku. I have to hand it to him. The density of it is incredible. There's a military phrase for this, I believe. What is it? Ten pounds of shit in a five-pound bag is a... First of all, the average tax hike here, I mean, I think...

They should extend the tax cuts for, you know, working people. Oh, shame. But if you...

Didn't extend any of the tax cuts. The average tax hike would be 7.5%. He just picks these numbers out of the air. No, no. He just makes it up. But reality is going to hit. I mean, this thing, also, the thing that we God-fearing conservatives don't like. It affects no one. Let's not forget that.

No impact. Nobody's going to feel anything. It's all going to be great. A friend of mine called from one of my auto buddies said, well, we just had our first big supplier bankruptcy, and I know two small suppliers that are going to chapter by the end of the month. That's the tariff war for you. By the way, Michigan, another Senate state that might get interesting purely because of this. The EV thing has put seven assembly plants in jeopardy. So it's just crazy.

Let's stay on the bill. And one of the things that Tillis was talking about and one of the things that Collins is upset is upset and she's gotten them to put some money in for rural hospitals. But the thing that happens when people lose their insurance isn't that they don't not

It's not like they don't get sick. They go to the emergency room and generate massive cost. Right. And a lot of these hospitals are in jeopardy as it is. So you're going to see a lot of hospitals folding. I did a speech two weeks ago in Saratoga Springs to the New York Hospital Associations. And they are...

you know, bipartisan group. I mean, obviously it's New York. It's a little bit bluer, but they are terrified about what the scale of these cuts is going to mean for the ability of anything, but the absolutely biggest, most robust hospitals be able to continue to operate. The debt.

The debt, $3 trillion. No, no, no. They voted. They voted. You missed it. They voted to render this no cost to the federal. Oh, the magic wand came out. Yes, and I didn't know you could do that, but I've picked up on it now. And guess what? Sounds pretty cool. As of today, we're all 160 pounds.

By edict of hacks on tap, we declare ourselves 160 pounds. And I feel so much lighter because of it. I'm going to be using that argument with the next company when I want to buy another house with the bank that finances it on the mortgage side. Hey, this is just, you know. I brought my MAGA wand here. Trump has actually done that, John, in his business dealings. It worked out well for him.

Yeah, that'll only work at New York City people's grocery stores in the future, the free stuff. Oh, God. I can't resist. Oh, my God. We'll get to that. Back to the debt thing. That used to be such a huge Republican issue. And now it's like we're making the Dems look like fiscal conservatives, which is a horrible thought. Yeah, it was a Republican issue. And then it was a big Republicans. It was a huge issue on which they did nothing and, in fact, made the situation worse than even Democrats did.

But do you guys—yes, and there's a bunch of people like Rand Paul's not voting for the bill on the basis of this. You see a bunch of people hooping and hollering about it. Do we doubt in the end of the day that these people are going to end up eating it? Well, Paul will stay. That's who we ask. No, not him. But the others, I have limited faith that they will live their values, so to speak. Let's talk, though.

about a couple of other aspects of this. One is food assistance, like this thing is going to bang school lunch programs and hurt, you know, there are tens of millions of people, including, by the way, in Magalan, who access these programs. Those are being cut. And look, at the end of the day, the question to me is the politics of this. We've talked about this before. It would be so easy. And I know, Mike, you know,

There are people who call this class warfare and so on. But you cap this thing and say, OK, everyone over a million or everyone over two and a half million, like the president suggested a few weeks ago.

their rates are just going to go back to where they were in 2016, which is like a point and a half. And then you don't have to make these cuts. No, no. Politically, I get it. I still hate it because philosophically, you either cut taxes or you don't. I don't like playing the class warfare game. But yeah, that would have been a better political thing. You know what I would have done? I wouldn't have cut taxes because I'm a tax cutter, but the economy doesn't need stimulus and we have a debt crisis.

So I would have cut some of the spending. I wouldn't have cut the taxes or I would have allowed them to reset. To David's point, though, forget about what you, Mike or David or I would have wanted. It would have been consistent with what Donald Trump said he was going to do. No, true. Like Trump has been has been running this this fake populist bullshit campaign.

line for a long time. All of the populist stuff, he's like, we're not going to cut Medicaid because that would hurt my voters. He said he was open to raising taxes on the rich when the House was considering the bill. That's not going anywhere. He said he was going to exempt overtime. He said he was going to exempt tips. He said he was going to do all this stuff that was basically populist and almost none of it's happening. So the question isn't like our policy preferences. The questions are what will be politically consistent for Trump to do? And if he followed through on that,

you would have a lot less onerous bill in terms of deficit. Well, John, it's the advisors. They're not telling him the full story. Yeah, those damn advisors. Boy, they're up to trouble. Let's be more specific. It's the consultants, not just the advisors. It's the consultants. I bet you the consultants were all for raising taxes on the wealthy. We need to take a quick break right now. We'll be right back with more of Hacks on Tap.

My childhood was tough. I didn't grow up in a warm, supportive home. So the trauma I went through led to something called toxic stress. But it's going to be different for my son. I'm giving him the protection he needs to defend against it. Learn more at first5california.com My childhood was tough. I didn't grow up in a warm, supportive home. So the trauma I went through led to something called toxic stress. But it's going to be different for my son. I'm giving him the protection he needs to defend against it. By taking time to play,

Even on long days. By offering extra patience, even when it's running short. And giving him the assurance that he's safe here. Learn more at first5california.com.

Let's talk a little bit about the thing that I know is making your head explode, and it should, which is this assault on EVs. Well, EVs, solar, wind, nuclear, wind. Any new sources. Yeah, exactly. Well, even more than that, it's not like the green dem. This is the caricature that kills it. What it really is, is we're in a race with China.

Exactly. Who's going to dominate the world energy tech and mobility tech? This is surrender. This is surrender. This is a complete, he put a big red bow on it. This is literally the first step in losing our auto industry. People roll their eyes. Well, guess what? China can make 50 million cars a year. We can make 12. I just say one other thing to this. It's not just even about those industries, right? I have a lot of misgivings about the notion that we're in an arms race on AI with China, but we are.

And if you talk to anybody in the technology business, they're like, we need vast amounts of energy to fuel the AI race. And this is going to kill that too. This isn't well understood. That's what I'm saying. AI centers demand massive energy. Extraordinary amount of energy. I'll give you an amazing barroom stat.

Right now, the Internet, which is basically data centers, both calculating data centers for AI, scalable computer power, the Internet uses more power than the country of Japan. Yeah. Well, there you go. And it's rapidly increasing. It's going to double in 10 years. That is a valuable data point. But you call that barroom talk? People must move away from you on the bar. This is hacks on tap. God, can you imagine? Read the room.

Move over. I don't want to sit next to that guy on this bar stool. Yeah, don't give me gigawatts. So anyway, but the problem is, here's what we're good at. We are not good at making really simple stuff because we pay people a working wage. We are great at making complicated machines like automobiles, wind turbines, high-tech carbon blades.

Computer tech. And software and AI. Of course, all the non-physical stuff completely. Brainpower. Right now, there are 100 EV brands and companies in China, only two make money because the government's writing a blank check. So the American companies with much higher labor costs have to go compete with people with a proverbial rich uncle. So I'm not a subsidy guy, but in the short term, to stay in the hunt and grow, it's important we have this stuff.

And instead, Trump, who thinks it's 1952, is just so stupid about it. Play the clip. Yeah, yeah, play the clip. Just so you can hear how 50s Trump is, play the clip. Opened up coal. We were closing all our coal mines all over the country, and yet we still have a lot of coal. We use the generating plants of coal because it's the strongest coal.

And we're doing coal. So we have everything, every form. I don't want windmills destroying our place. I don't want, you know, these solar things where they go for miles and they cover up a half a mountain that are ugly as hell. And by the way, the panels are all made and the windmills, they're all made in China. He's wrong in one detail. The panels are all going to be made in China now that he's taken a sledgehammer to the industry. Who knew that when Trump promised his inaugural that this was we were about to enter the golden age of America, that he meant the 1950s?

Yeah. And by the way, these are manufacturing jobs. Let me just finish on that point. These are good. Literally, we're talking quarter million EV jobs in the pipeline here. They're going to go up in smoke. It's just unbelievable. The coal renaissance.

We could go on for hours on the deficiencies in this bill. They've written it in such a way that, like, the Medicaid cuts, I think, kick in after the midterm elections. He does have some sweeteners in there, right? Taxes on tips, taxes on overtime, you know, no taxes on tips. Accelerated investment depreciation is actually a good idea we can afford, but very few of them worth a damn. No, no, but the sweeteners for working-class people all expire...

Exactly when he leaves office. Yeah, that's why I don't even count them. Oh, they've also got a phony $90 billion Spectrum auction, you know, which they count as revenue, which is completely pie in the sky. Suggesting that this will be a no-cost bill to the Treasury, they include...

Tariff revenues. Oh, right, right. That's my favorite. Who was saying that? One of the senators who knows better was saying, oh, it's all great because we're going to make so much money on tariffs. Yeah. Yeah. First of all, that must be really interesting news to people who are negotiating with them for, you know, for tariff relief that, you know, I mean, it's the whole thing is interesting.

insane. But the question I have for you guys is because of the way they've planted these grenades and because of the impact of debt, uh, you know, which I think is abstract to a lot of people, but will be felt in interest rates and so on. Uh, but, but not all of this is sort of will unfold over time. And the question is, uh,

Will it be felt and will Democrats be adroit enough to make the case in the midterm elections in a way that will be felt by people? So far, adroit is not the word I'd use, but I think people forget.

A lot of the election is about the other guy sucks, so I'll vote for you. So we tend to give too much credit or too much faith in the need for a big mastermind opposing strategy. If Kamala hadn't been Biden 2.0, Trump could have lost to a strong Democrat. So I don't think the Dems need a lot to win the House next year.

just not make it worse, which with the Democrats is still a risky bet, but I'm thinking they probably won't. What the Dems really need is a few superstar Senate candidates to run far above average candidate campaigns because that could move the big needle. It's unlikely, but there's a shot if the environment is bad enough. There's also the reality, David, just that, you know, a lot of these things are the bill is designed to put all the pain after the midterms, but the

The debt issue could provoke a significant economic crisis in the period of time between now and the midterms, number one. And number two, the tariffs are making the situation worse as we speak. As Mike was talking about earlier, we could have a very rough economy starting in the third quarter and running all the way through to the following year. In that situation where the economy is suffering stagflation, I don't even even the worst, the most idiotic Democrats should be able to win a lot of these House races and maybe take back control of the Senate.

Yeah, I think that the message for the Democrats is pretty clean, which is they just decimated a whole bunch of stuff that helps people, you know, including working people to pay for tax cuts for the wealthy. The message that Mike hates, but I think has real power because it has the virtue of being true. And also Trump promised to lower your prices and didn't. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.

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I'm heartened by the first bastard stroke the Democrats have made, because this to me is the key to win a Michigan Senate race, a Georgia, North Carolina. They've nominated a socialist who apparently hates Israel as mayor of New York. That's been the first national sign. He's not a socialist. He's a communist. Let's be clear. Okay. He's a democratic socialist, which is a communist who hasn't arrested you yet. I got to have my fun, boys. Trump had plenty to say about this. I'll bet.

I think he's terrible. He's a communist. The last thing we need is a communist. I said there will never be socialism in the United States, so we have a communist. I think he's bad news, and I think we're going to have a lot of fun with him, watching him, because he has to come right to this building to get his money.

And don't worry, he's not going to run away with anything. I think he's, frankly, I've heard he's a total nut job. Well, you know, some people say the cure for communism is fascism. So I think Trump is putting that together in his wicked little mind. Hey, so David, here's the thing, the question. We had talked about this with Patrick last week. And...

about Zoran, the question that I have, I'll give you my opinion on it too. Um, you're a New Yorker. What did Democrats do about it? And you know, my, my attitude is there's a lot of things about Zoran not to like, you know, the idea of like government run grocery stores is fucking ridiculous. And Democrats are going to across the country are going to need to say that they don't disagree with them about that. But it is foolish. It seems to me for Democrats to look at the, at the wave of enthusiasm that this guy generated with young voters and say, we need to stop him. We,

Which is what a lot of establishmentarians and business people in New York City are like. We need to stop Zoran. I'm like, hey, you know, how about you learn some lessons from him and distance yourself where necessary? Listen...

You can disagree. First of all, understand why the guy won. Okay. At the end of the day, he very masterfully focused on one issue, which was affordability. Yeah. And that is a huge issue in the city of New York. And it's a big issue across the country. You may disagree with his prescriptions. I think the point, I don't know, I haven't investigated his prescriptions,

this government the city-run grocery store thing i i assume that part of it was motivated by food deserts i don't know in some parts of the city it's pricing because you have these small square foot so it's like a public option for groceries yeah yeah yeah it believe me it's uh but

The fact is that every single thing he's talking about, the cost of housing, the cost of groceries, these are fundamental issues. And you can be dismissive of his answers, but you better have a goddamn answer yourself because this is the tide that is overrunning politicians right now across the country. So here, let's do the hack thing because we're going to argue the left-right stuff forever.

I thought that was a hack thing. Yeah, I thought that was pretty hackish myself. How much more hackish can you be? No, no, no, I agree. Affordability was the issue. You know, the guy, somebody, I wish I could cite the journalist because I want to give him kudos. Somebody wrote a piece, they looked up his, in like middle school, he ran for president on free orange juice. So he's, you know, he's for this stuff before it was cool. And he's a very charismatic, a very talented candidate. The question is,

If Cuomo is drummed out of the race, can Eric Adams have a comeback? I think it's an interesting question. If they hate Eric Adams because of the corruption, I think there's an angle for him. If they hate him because they think he can't run the city, then it'll be hard to dig out. And I don't know the answer to that.

I think on the running the city thing is that the Wall Street guys and so on will say we have doubts about Adams, but we are terrified by Mom Donnie, so we'll go with Adams. Yeah, great. See, that's a great look for the Democratic Party. I think Adams could have a shot. One of the things that happened in the primary was it exposed something. Establishment Democrats rallied to...

Cuomo. Cuomo, who was a, you know, a thug and a pig. Yeah. And yesterday on top of it. Yeah. And now their backup plan is to rally to a guy who would be on trial right now, but for Donald Trump pardoning him. Yeah. Hell of a choice.

Yeah. So I think that, that, that is not good for, that is not good for the democratic party. Here's, here's another hackish angle on this though, Mike, you know, we always say in the democratic, but we look at that. We say the country is really diverse. The,

that we need a different kind of Democrat to run in West Virginia than we need to run in New York City, which is why we say someone like Joe Manchin is fine with the Democratic coalition because he couldn't get elected in New York, but he's what we need for West Virginia, right? I just don't understand why the argument doesn't run in the other direction too, which is horses for courses. Mamdani shouldn't be the presidential nominee, and he shouldn't be a statewide nominee in Kansas or in Missouri.

And I don't have to agree with everything he says, but if New Yorkers love him, what's the fucking problem? Well, it's not that simple. Because when you look at the Democratic Party now, the national brand, which affects Senate races, everything else, where do the Democrats have power in government in the U.S.? Not the House, not the Senate, not the White House. They run the big cities. They run L.A. They run Chicago. Well, and some states. They run New York. Yeah, and a few governors. But the point is, the big cities...

city brands equal democratic governance. And the big cities right now don't have a lot to brag about now they're being governed.

It's a disaster here with Bass. There's frustration in New York. Chicago, I'll let David speak to that. So that's why the stage upon which the mayor of New York operates has a national reverberance. So there's no escaping that. The question is how he would run the mayor of New York, the city of New York. The fact is that he has proven himself to be

a pretty smart and resourceful guy, can he adjust to that role? Right, right, right. Can he shake the problem? If he runs the city into the ground, it's a huge fucking problem. If he turns out to be surprisingly competent, you know, great. Well, yeah. No, cat bites dog. It'll all work out. But, you know, socialism's been tried before. Let me just say, I am not...

foolish about Mondani. I predicted he'd win. Remember, I tried to bet a dollar with you. Because I think you bet on Cuomo. No, no, no. We have the tape. We have the tape. No, those tapes have been destroyed. No, no, no. I heard it this morning. Well, let's go to the tape because the truth is we both weren't sure, but I did one of my impetuous predictions and I almost tricked you into it. Let's see here. Two weeks ago,

Now, whether Cuomo has enough of a cushion, I would still say he's slightly the favorite in this race. But because of the... I don't think he's going to be a lot of people's second choice. And, you know, this rank choice thing throws a kick into it. So I don't know what's going to happen. Let's bet a dollar. Let's bet a dollar. I'll take Mann with an N, Dami. You take Cuomo. One buck. Okay.

I'm not making a bet because I don't know. I'm saying I do not know. I did the politician's hedge there, which is I said that I thought that Mamdani had momentum and momentum generally carries through. But at that moment, you'd make Cuomo a slight favorite. So I tried to have it both ways. No, you were smart. I mean, this is what we all do in the business. Our gut tells us one thing, but...

But our brain says, well, I don't know. And, you know, so anyway, my recklessness paid off. Mike wants to claim that saying, okay, I'll bet you a dollar and I'll take Mom Donnie is a prediction. I don't really think that was a prediction. That wasn't the only bet I made. This one paid off. But I'm not sure I'll take him in November, though. Mike Murphy doesn't throw around money carelessly, okay? My hero Jack Benny would agree. Yeah, I was all in. Clearly felt stressed.

strongly about it. One last thing on Mamdani, and this I think is a problem. There are a lot of Jews in New York, and there are a lot of folks who were devastated by what happened on October 7th, and phrases like globalized intifada seem like an invitation to violence against Jews. And his

You know, failure to denounce that phrase has become an issue. And this came up on Meet the Press on Sunday. So let's listen to that. I've heard from many Jewish New Yorkers who have shared their concerns with me, especially in light of the horrific attacks that we saw in Washington, D.C. and in Boulder, Colorado, about.

this moment of anti-Semitism in our country and in our city. And I've heard those fears and I've had those conversations and ultimately they are part and parcel of why in my campaign I've put forward a commitment to increase funding for anti-hate crime programming by 800%. I don't believe that the role of the mayor is to police speech in the manner especially of that of Donald Trump who has put

one New Yorker in jail who's just returned to his family, Mahmoud Khalil, for that very supposed crime of speech. Ultimately, what I think I need to show is the ability to not only talk about something, but to tackle it and to make clear that there's no room for anti-Semitism in this city. We have to root out that bigotry, and ultimately we do that through the actions. And that is the mayor I will be, one that protects Jewish New Yorkers and lives up to that commitment through the work that I do.

I don't know that that's going to answer the man. Well, you know, he's veering into slick Donnie there because you know, it's a little too clever by half. I, uh,

I don't know why he can't just put that candle out. Seriously, what is the problem? Does he really think he's going to lose a progressive voter or a young voter if he basically says, I don't think we should globalize the indefatigable? I just don't believe there's anybody who's enthusiastic about this campaign. Unfortunately, he might actually believe that they shouldn't, which is a tell, which is

He did say, that's not a phrase I would use. But just say it. I'm telling you that there are people who... He did get quite a few Jewish votes, I think. And there are people who are inclined to vote for him...

who just need a little more reassurance on that. And the question is whether he gets there. The mistake he might make is be forced to do it rather than lead the parade right now. And he gets so much less when you're forced. I want to make one more point about him. I agree, Axe, affordability, kitchen table economics. We've talked about that for years on this show. It's so important. But there was something else going on that could work in other places without the ideological stuff he has, which is generational.

Yeah, 100%. The power in that against these old lizards who run the Democratic Party, it's visual, it's visceral, it's really powerful. I totally agree. Yeah, yeah, no, absolutely. This was a generational revolution in New York. And that can spread. And warranted, because there needs to, and I think this is a holdover also from Biden,

You know, there is a need for this. Hey, I just wanted to play something for you guys along these lines. A bunch of people recommended that I listen to Ezra Klein's interview with Sarah McBride, who's the congresswoman from Delaware, who's a trans woman. And here is, and I was really kind of blown away by how good she was in this interview.

And here's one little bit of it that apropos to the conversation we just had. When you ask a voter, what are the top five priorities of the Democratic Party? What are the top five priorities of the Republican Party? And what are the top five priorities for them as a voter? Three out of the five issues that are the top issue for that voter appear in what their perception of the top five issues for the Republican Party. Only one.

of their top five priorities appear in their perception of what are the top five priorities for the Democrats. That's healthcare, and it was fifth out of five. The top two were abortion and LGBTQ issues. And I don't care what your position is on those two issues, you are not going to win an election if voters think that those two issues are your top issues rather than their ability to get a good wage and good benefits, get a house, and live the American dream. So smart.

Totally on it. I mean, I really recommend this interview to everyone because quite apart from the issue, and she talks very eloquently about that issue as well and how Democrats should talk about that issue. She's just a font of really sensible political advice. Also, I'll just say it is so...

It's embarrassing the way she's been treated by some of the Republican members. It's amazing. It's thuggish, and it's just a stain on the House. She talks about it, and she's handled it with incredible dignity. She hasn't taken the bait. Yeah, a lot more than they have.

In that interview, her description of how the civil rights movement for civil rights for African-Americans differs from the way that the movement for rights for LGBTQ Americans has evolved.

has operated is incredibly insightful and worth listening to if you care about rights for anybody, because her kind of notion of how progress on all these fronts comes in an incremental way. And it can't be all done all at once and it can't be shoved down. Anyone's throat is, is a hugely important, is a hugely important thing. I don't say this lightly and you don't hear me saying this on this podcast, but I,

Some of the things she said were Obama-esque. Oh, yes, totally. Not in her cadence, but in the depth of her thoughts. Just when I was starting to like her. How she thinks about progress in the world is very Obama-esque. I agree with that. So, Axe, Elon has been tweeting again. Now, these tweets run hot and cold, but it looks like it's mostly hot, sometimes a little hazy.

But he basically, uh,

after the big beautiful bill, he tweeted earlier what a gift to China it was, which we've been talking about, but he was threatening primaries with the big wallet. And a third party, which would be even more threatening, I think. He threatened primaries to everybody who votes for the, every Republican who votes for the bill, he threatened primaries. I understand. But if it's a battle, don't you think between Trump and, John, between Trump and Musk, that

that the Trump candidate wins the primary? 100%. And I think the interesting question with Elon, when he was aligned with Trump, people said, I said, others said, I think correctly, what makes Elon powerful is that he has all this money.

And he's also side-by-side with Trump. And he's got the platform X. And what we're finding out, I think, very quickly right now, members of Congress don't care about these tweets from Elon. So the money itself and even the platform aren't what matter. What really matters is that moment when he was right side-by-side with Trump. It just shows Trump is way more powerful than Elon.

than Musk politically. This third party thing, to me, Murphy, is more threatening than... Well, I think they both have certain grip. I agree that Trump would have the advantage, but there's no sitting member when you walk in, hey, sir, get this, Elon wants to gen up a primary against you and spend a billion bucks.

It'll still strike fear into hearts. No incumbent wants a primary. It's a scary word. Mike, do you think it'll change the single vote on this? Not on this. Not on this. But the Elka-Seltzer sales will quadruple because people hate primaries. Of course. Of course. I mean, the first two things, these third parties, if they take four points in some of these marches. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

The other thing about it is Trump's reaction. He said this morning, we may have to just unleash the Doge monster on him. And it really speaks to how Trump thinks about all of this. All transactional. All transactional. And you know what?

Musk unleashed the Trump monster on us. OK, he then created the Doge monster. And now there is a certain sort of rough justice to all of it. Well, here's the real Elon suicide mission, which would have an impact. Elon says, you know what? The only guy I hate more than Trump is this J.D. Vance idiot.

So I'm going to run for president in these five close Republican states. I'm going to spend a zillion dollars. And I'm going to go pull my 7%. I'm going to get all the attention I love, and I'll spend a big wad of money. And hello, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona. You know, that is a real deal threat. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor, and we'll be right back. It's Listener Mail.

All right, if you have a question for the Hacks, you can email it to us. You can email, you know, words. You can type them. Or you can record a voice memo on your smartphone and send that to us. Keep it short. The magic email is hacksontap at gmail.com, hacksontap at gmail.com. Or you can call our Voter Registration Center slash Rahm Emanuel for President slash question line and leave one on the phone. Use your name. Keep it brief. We'd love to hear from you.

773-389-4471. I'll repeat it because who can remember that? 773-389-4471. And before we get to the questions, I have a quick plug.

If you want to let your member know to lay off American manufacturing jobs and stop rolling over for the Chinese, all you got to do is go to AmericanEVJobs.org. You can, for free, send an email to your member of Congress saying, what the hell are you doing? AmericanEVJobs.org. So I'm looking over here at the mailbag, you guys, and like a lot of the questions that our brilliant readers have are questions that we already addressed in this episode, but there are two in here that get to things we haven't talked about. Let's start with this first one from Annabelle.

who writes, can you talk about the arc of John Fetterman? The way he's acting now is so different from the man who was running for office. I can't imagine his constituents appreciate that. How and why did he change?

I don't know the answer to it other than some of the new stuff I like. He is, by almost all accounts, you talk to any politico in Pennsylvania, you hear that he doesn't like the job and there's already a lot of questions about will he even run for re-election. There's been a shift. I don't think he's happy in the job. He's signaled that.

And I think the Israel stuff is kind of his pugnacious contrarianism, plus the connection he feels to Israel. I don't understand some of the other stuff. I don't know what to make of it either.

He is a he's a guy who's obviously had struggles. And and I saw him on television last night, you know, saying, I just want to go home, go to the beach. You know, why do we have to do this? You know, my family's already gone. And and it's like, dude, get out of the Senate. Yeah, right. You chose this life, right?

Yeah. And I mean, I, in some ways I feel for him, but we've said this before that this is one where I do blame advisors, uh, because, uh, he was really, really much sicker, uh, before that primary in 2022 then was let on. And, you know, there's been reverberations from that ever since too. So I just don't know what to make of, uh,

of him. And it'll be real interesting to see come the time for him to run for reelection, whether he, whether he actually does. The one thing that I think people probably do appreciate about him is you can't say he's not authentic. Yeah. For good or bad.

I appreciate it. I credit all that, David. I don't think he will run again, and I think that it will be the right thing for him because apparently not only was he still has struggles. He has struggles with his health, and I think for a guy like that, maybe what he really needs is not this life. Yes. And let him do his six years.

Let him cast the votes he wants to cast and then let him step aside. And I think that that may be where we end up six years, four years from now. Yeah. And the last thing in his current mood and everything I think he's excited about is a tough reelection with probably a primary because that would be exhausting. And I don't think he's looking for more stress.

No. I mean, listen, to go after these jobs in this kind of environment, you really, really got to want them. You got to be a masochist. You got to want them. I agree with you guys. I hope for his sake that he thinks long and hard about that. Now, let me, can I read Anna? Because it's such a great question. And of course, it's my feelings. Exactly. Anna, thank you, comrade.

How should Americans feel watching billionaires gather on super yachts and private islands and all throw in taking over Venice while so many struggle to meet basic needs back home? Are we watching the rise of an American oligarchy where the ultra-wealthy aren't just rich but increasingly writing the rules for the rest of us? Well, welcome to the 1890s, Anna.

You know, big capitals have power for a long time, not just here, but just about everywhere. But Comrade Axelrod, this seems right out of your credo.

To your point, Mike, one of the things that frustrates me about our politics today is it feels like we're having a battle between the politics and policies of the 20th century and the politics and policies of the 19th century. And we're sitting here in the 21st century. Yeah, I mean, listen, this is where we are. I think that we are facing a new oligarchy, that we do have more politics.

polarization economically than we've had in a century. And I thought the spectacle in Venice really underscored that, you know, right from the president's inaugural ceremony, sitting right behind him to, you know, extravagant celebrations of and kind of

gaudy celebrations of wealth taking over the city. And really fucking tacky, too. Jesus. I mean, like, you know, Jeff, the sight of... If I'm feeling for Anna, because I think she's watching the cable coverage of Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sanchez doing a foam party on their super yacht. But she asked a question.

which is how should we feel about it? I think we should feel vaguely nauseous and in a larger way enraged by it. The question is, though, what to do about it, because as far as I can tell, Democrats and Republicans alike don't really seriously want to do anything about the billionaire class. And certainly Zoran Mamdani's solution, which is there should be no billionaires, has some problems with it. Yeah. No, I mean, listen, I think that the problem isn't...

Leaving aside the question of how many billionaires we should have, everybody wants to do well. The fact is success should be a closely held asset that is unavailable to the vast majority of Americans. And that's what's happening. People are working harder and harder just to keep their heads above water while a small group of people are just going wild.

hog wild. That's the real problem. We need less Bezos, more Buffett, who just announced how he's given all, you know, his plan to liquidate 99% of his wealth to good charitable causes. The best line at the 2008 convention, I know if you guys remember this

There was that we had regular people speaking at the convention and this guy was, there was a guy named Barney Smith. I forget where it's from somewhere in the Midwest. And he said, I want a president who thinks more about Barney Smith than Smith Barney. And, uh,

And I think that's where most Americans are right now. And you say what to do about it, John. I think that what to do about it is through elections. And Mamdani may not have the right answers, but he certainly all the right answers. But he certainly tapped into something that I don't think is isolated to New York. I think people feel more and more. And Trump tapped into it. And now he's wheeled a Trojan horse of populism into the Capitol in which lives

an oligarchy and a kleptocracy. He is the American family that is benefiting from the Trump presidency. And now I'm willing to say goodbye. No, wait a minute. We just got a text here. Let me read it to you from Jeff Bezos. I'm making a cash offer of $25 million for excellent tap. So I want to say it's about time a love affair like that can have the joy they deserve. That any young woman who works hard can move up through Univision and marry a multi-zillionaire.

You know, I say, God bless them. We're going to throw confetti from our gondola. Yeah, why weren't we invited? They could have bought us off. By the way, that guy at the convention who said he wanted a president who cared more about Barney Smith than Smith Barney. Smith Barney evaporated very quickly as the financial crisis unfolded in 2009. And I bet you Barney Smith isn't doing that well either right now.

Oh, he's probably got a Trump hat, pal. I love Jeff Bezos. Man, Jeff Bezos. Okay, Jeff, give us a call. Well, like the foam party will forgive you. Give us a call. Yeah, yeah. Call our legally enfranchised representatives. See if we can work this out. What is a foam party? I don't even know. That's where they stand. You'll look it up on the internet. You'll see them all. They wear very few clothes. I don't want to vomit. And they cover themselves in foam.

Sounds like foam sex. This is the world's most prolific midlife crisis ever. Bye, guys. See you later, alligators.