It’s the Economy, Stupid (with James Carville)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod and Mike Murphy. Hacks on Tap

There's three things I ain't changing. I ain't changing wives. I'm not changing sexual orientation. I'm not changing political parties. We're going to go to the house with what we got here, okay? There you go. We are here with the one and only, America's beloved Ragin' Cajun. I'm trying to rank those probabilities in order if you had to choose two. Don't get him in trouble at home here. Don't get him in trouble at home.

James Carville, it's great to see you. That was a clip from a fantastic film, a documentary that was done about you by the same name, Carville. And that's going to air on CNN on October 5th. So we want to talk about that at the end of all this. And I learned a lot about you, including the fact that you're such a cheap son of a bitch that you

that you put bourbon in small bottles and take them from home. So you don't have to pay for it at a hotel. They sell bourbon wherever you go, James, I want to fill you in on that. You don't have to actually bring it from home, but anyway, it's good to see you guys. I figured we were going to start this off in a different way. And then yesterday took a strange turn. And there was another assassination attempt on,

on Donald Trump, which has stirred a hornet's nest again. And thank God he's fine. And the Secret Service did its job there and thwarted this would-be attacker. But

uh i'm interested uh in the sort of what happens now a do you think it has any impact and so how should i mean trump's already sort of blaming the rhetoric i guess of harris supporters or harris for uh for this i mean how would you advise let's start with you carvel how would you advise her to react

Well, first of all, she should react as she did. Thank God that nothing, no one's hurt. That's the last thing we want. What was this? Another white guy with three names who could get an AR-15. Don't we see a pattern here? Is this really about rhetoric? This is about frustrated people who have more access to assault weapons than they do girls or women. I mean, let's identify what the real problem is.

And the real problem is you got a bunch of frustrated people who can't get laid but can get a gun, and that becomes a substitute, and that's the tragedy. And it's almost 100% that. And you ever notice they all have three names? The only surprise is middle name wasn't Wayne.

Yeah, and this guy allegedly already holed himself up once 10 years ago, and I guess they talked him out. So he didn't exactly have a history of civic behaviors, and not from the beginning, and he loved guns, and I agree. I'll bet the dating history is pretty grim. So here we are again. You know, as Mark Twain said, I don't know if history repeats itself, but it rhymes. It's always three names.

a white guy who could get a gun and not a girl. That's the constant thing that goes through all of the, I say all of them, 80% of these shootings. That would be, so it's interesting. By the time, by the way, people hear us prattling on, she will probably have spoken to this. But I had an exchange with someone that you and I both know, James, this morning, who said, you know, she ought to make it clear who's

whose rhetoric is provoking violence out there and so on and so forth. It seems to me that's like a rabbit hole that you don't necessarily need to go down. I'd be careful. I mean, this is one of these things where it gives Trump a moment in politics where people would be sympathetic to him, but he blows it up instantly. So, you know, I think you let this thing go and the campaign will be about a lot of other stuff in 72 hours. Just celebrate the fact nobody get hurt.

Now, God hurt and then moving on. You're right about you're right, James, about the kid in Noble was another example of this. But, you know, the sort of ready availability of these weapons is another issue. But, you know, I think it's kind of important to say if you if you if you know all these people who are rightfully concerned about democracy, like one of the fundamental tenets of it is.

You kind of settle this at the ballot box. You settle it by voting. You don't settle it with guns. And that seems like a good place for a president to be or a prospective president to be. But in any case, you guys think this has any long-term impact?

No. Yeah, me neither. Me neither. At some point, if they continue, it could, but I don't think so. I'll tell you something. You look back at 2018, and God forbid there are more acts like, there are more situations like this, or acts of violence against either candidate or political actors generally, but you go back to 2018 and

I think two things were very much at play in what happened in that election. One was the attack on Paul Pelosi at the end of the campaign, and the other was the synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh. Yeah, life in Pittsburgh, yes. Yeah. So, you know, I do think that—I mean, I really hope we're not spiraling toward—

acts like that. But I think being the being the adult in the room and and, you know, acting like a president in these instances, because Trump's not going to do that.

Just as a crass political matter, I think it's the right thing to do. I think it's also, Murphy, the politically right thing to do. Yeah, but remember, we've been through this once. The first tragic thing where an innocent person was killed, and then Trump gets on the prompter at the convention, and all of a sudden, new and improved Trump is reading the lines and taking advantage of the moment. And about eight minutes goes by, and he says, nobody's setting fire to the furniture in the hall. This is a failure. And he threw out the remarks and started doing his—

nightclub act, and he blew up all the goodwill in a speech. I think it'll be a repeat of that. Let's just hope we don't have any more of this and get back to a regular campaign with no bullets flying. I'd just be on the side of let's not having any more of this. I'd be on that side. I think that's a good place to be. I think we all are. All right. Carville, where do you think this race is at? So, David, one of the things I always live by—

early in my career, so don't try to predict races. Spend your time trying to affect them. And I think, because I don't predict I'm not affected. Having said that and understanding him on this program, right now, I would rather be hurting him. By how much, I don't know. I just make the blanket statement. As of today, I think she has more upside than he does. And

That opinion could change. It might not even be that good. I'm not very good at predicting things anyway. Joe Maddon can't tell you who's going to win the World Series any more than anybody else. He probably knows what baseball is, but all of us put together by 10. But that's not what he spends his time doing. Yeah, I'm going to the same place. You can't tell it's so close. But if you look at who has a better pile of ingredient in front of them,

you know, money, candidate tools, all that. She's got a little bigger pile, I think. On the other hand, the country wants to fire Biden on the economy. You know, he's gone, but that wall of lomba isn't going anywhere, and she's got to figure out a way to navigate it. On the economy, the views are not static. I mean, there was an FT poll. I don't know how good it is. It actually showed her ahead. She was doing good, yeah. Everyone says that she's closing.

I think the problem on the economy and Biden is people just thought he was too old when they couldn't get past it. I mean, the economic numbers have improved pretty dramatically since he got out.

And I think this, that the wrong question, do you think you're a good economy or bad economy? Maybe more people say bad. But people are now feeling like they have something to risk. Well, you know, I feel pretty good in my job for the next year. You know, I got a few more shekels in my 401k than I had before. I wonder if Trump's going to come in and risk what low gains we have here.

And you saw her at the debate, you know, when she said 16 Nobel laureates say this is going to cause a recession. I actually thought it was pretty good because you're giving people, hey, you know, you're not in a just old hell. You got some you got some skin in this game. Yeah. No, I think she's got a little distance that she can exploit. Right. We got a rate cut coming. Right.

And people are going to, they don't know, they haven't factored in like the markets. Oh, that's already been factored in, James. Most people are going to see that and say, gee, there's a chance interest rates will come down. Maybe I'll be able to get a house one day. You know, I think it's a positive. Views on the economy are not static. Oh, no, I concur. You know, the polls are all over the place, but she's,

Right now, they're putting the shoulder of the campaign behind moving that number. They got a new spot up trying to do it, which I thought was smart. You know, we love being in the booth and critiquing people. And, oh, we did it. I can't think of one real major critique I have a Harris campaign since she's got in. I really can't. It wouldn't be like I wouldn't run out and say, oh, you know, they should have run a post pattern or a hook pattern.

But for the most part, I think they have done the things they've done have been pretty solid. Yeah. Well, there's no doubt about it. I mean, I mean, they've surprised on the high side, honestly. Totally. The expectations for her were terrible. I'm with you guys. I mean, I can critique that fracking answer, but that's all I got. And that's not a lot. I have one critique, OK, because I well, just because I do. And that is, you know, you look at that debate.

And she was I mean, obviously, she she she deconstructed Trump and he helped a lot. But, you know, you look at her answer on the abortion rights issue and she was utterly passionate on the economic issue. She's still trying to find the right voice. And she's she's drawing on her bio. And I think bio is really important here.

But, you know, she did an interview in Philly. I think we have some of it. We could listen to it. But, you know, her first answer in the debate on the economy wasn't that strong. Her answer in Philly was sort of meandering. And she's drawing on bio, her own personal bio to say, I'm more like you. I will be for you. And she's not it doesn't feel organic. It feels like it flowed from a

from a poll and it started occurring to me, you guys, that she's a prosecutor. She's actually prosecuted people who've screwed working people. She ought to think about this like a case, right? And like a case she's prosecuting and middle class people and working people around the country are her clients and put a little edge into the fact that

You know, a lot of people have gotten screwed by the system. The system is biased. And she's trying to, you know, she's going to fight on the side of those folks. I think she'd be more comfortable in that role.

the way she's answering these questions now. That would be my only critique because I think there's still James, I agree with you, I think she has worked her way into a maybe slightly advantageous position, but

But the people who are hanging out, they're suspicious of politicians of both parties. They're suspicious of the whole system. They're pretty transactional. They want to figure out if she's for real. And I think she can help close that by being very authentic about the way she talks about the economy and talking about the things that she did as attorney general, as a prosecutor and so on, on behalf of people who've gotten...

fucked over, it seems to me, is a more authentic way to do it and what she's going to do. Yeah, I would defend her to first answer. First of all, she had the jitters. This is the biggest debate stage you can imagine. So the fact that she did that, I mean, yeah, I mean, but that would have been more troubling if that answer would have been at minute 45 as opposed to minute one. All right. But yeah, she did. She had to get her jersey dirty.

And what she did, she was fine. It just is a big, no audience. You're sitting there, you're by yourself. You know, 67 people, a million people, way more than that once you do the reruns. And it was a big event. She was a little halting, and then she got a lot better quickly. And that's what I like about her. You would keep hearing, and I'm sure you heard the same thing, but people say, you know, she's gotten better, James. I've been in meetings.

She's more confident. She has better people and people can grow. You know, and I see these people that worked in campaigns with me back in the 90s and 80s, and they got these big jobs. How does that because he grew, James? He's not the kid you remember at midnight. He actually got better. Oh, OK. Or they got lucky.

The growth that she's shown has been staggering, but I think one of the reasons why she is better now than she was in 2019, because she never did make it to 2020, and I've said that before here, is I think she feels more connected to the words she's speaking now. She's not, you know, I think she took a bunch of positions in 2019 because somebody told her, just go left, go left, and

And you'll get to where, you know, that's where the party is and so on. And she never really seemed that comfortable delivering those lines. She seems comfortable generally delivering these lines. All I'm saying is on this economic stuff, when she's off the prompter,

It's still it feels a little inorganic because I think this is kind of a new a new thing for her. I agree with that, but I think this is pretty simple. Every day she's got a pond on. Hey, I'm new. I'm change. I got new ideas. And here's what I'm going to do for you. Here are your problems. I hear you. Here's what I'm going to do for you. Hey, it's Thursday. Here's some stuff I'm going to do for you.

and just pound that. I agree with that. What I'm saying is when you're running for president, and you guys both know this, you have to pass the bullet meter and people have to believe that you actually are going to do what you say you're going to do. And I think she's got a body of work of fighting for people, particularly in those prosecutorial roles that back that up and speak to her sense that she doesn't like when people are being taken advantage of.

When people aren't getting the respect they deserve. Yeah, it's tricky, though. I get it. But next thing you know, they've flirted into price controls for a day and a half. Well, this isn't even a policy thing. It's an attitudinal thing. Yeah. And by the way, I think price controls are more popular with people than they are with you. I don't think she came up with price controls. I think that was a little bit exaggerated.

And I do think that she's correct that there's a lot of price rigging going on. These insurance companies, these airlines, these all companies, political companies. By the way, the universities, what's the greatest price rigging cartel in the United States? It's the Ivy League. I go up to $75,000. You go up to $74,000. I mean, but they are nefarious. If capitalism really works, I understand it.

You've got to have competition. Adam Smith was the biggest antitrust guy you can imagine because he knew capitalism could never work when it was price-fixing. And I think there's a lot of that that's going on now. I do. This is why, by the way, James turned Harvard down when he was accepted there because he was irate about the—

competition in the Ivy League, a lack of competition in the Ivy League and the predatory pricing. J.P. Morgan, one of his great quotes was, every businessman has a common enemy, competition, because it controls pricing. So get rid of the competition. You don't have to worry about pricing. No, no. I think the populist side of it can work for her. But my point is, if she can be new and if she's perceived as competent to run the economy, Trump's strength, which hopefully is eroding,

Everything else is lined up for her. She's got to swallow that pig, and I think then she can do it. The Democrats have literally not lost an election since now. No way. Yeah, somewhere in Nebraska, we were supposed to lose by 25. We lost by seven. But that's about what you can find. And I just think this abortion thing is the most powerful thing that I've seen in American politics, single-issued.

I mean, we were losing everything in 2021 and we just stopped losing and started winning. I suspect the reason is dogs. Yeah, I think there's some strength there, no doubt. The question I have about that, there's no doubt there's power to it and there was power to it on that stage. And there's a reason why, like your old buddy James, Paul Begala, likes to say he ran from it like a scalded dog.

There's a reason why Trump is running from this issue like a scalded dog, because he knows the power of the issue. The only issue, the thing we've not tested yet is we've not tested this in a presidential election with a presidential turnout. So we'll see about that. All right. We're going to leave for a minute to pay the power bill, and then we'll be right back.

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Hey, listen, I want to play a few ads because it does tell you a little bit about the strategic thinking of the campaign, whether they can get their candidates and particularly the Trump side to stick to the strategy.

strategy is one thing. But it goes to what you're saying, Murphy, the struggle to about who's for change and who is who is going to represent something new. Let's first play the Trump ad. Everyday prices are too high. Food, rent, gas, back to school clothes. That is called Bidenomics. A loaf of bread costs

Cost 50% more today. Ground beef is up almost 50%. There's not much left at the end of the month. Bidenomics is working. The price of housing has gone up. It feels so hard to just be able to get ahead. And we are very proud of Bidenomics. So that's a Trump ad. And we should set it up for people who aren't watching this on YouTube that it's her ad.

comments for earlier comments on Bidenomics and her current comments on the campaign. I think that they have different screens of her fighting herself. Now, it's it's really complicated. I'm not a believer in bringing in Fellini to do levels of subtext. I'm not asking you to critique it as art. I'm asking you to

Well, that's what I'm winding up for. I'm going to the opening and then I'm dropping the hammer here. They've got something to say there. They've got her talking about Bidenomics.

But having her repeat all the problems people think they have doesn't hurt. It's the old Lakoff thing. Don't think of an elephant. Well, she seems to get stuff cost too much. So half of that thing reduces in a way that helps her. So I thought it was a good hit, totally blown to bad execution. But James, the one thing that Trump is clinging to and

And the thing that he wants to turn her into the incumbent and he wants to make himself change. And this economic issue, along with the border stuff, we'll get to that, is what he's grabbing onto. Problem is, he doesn't seem, he goes off on all kinds of crazy shit.

that takes him off message. But is there power to this message? Almost every election that any of us ever do, it's do you like what you got or do you want to try something different? Has it changed it more to the same? Right, right. This one is a little bit different because he was president and she's vice president.

I think that the axis we're looking for is fresh stale. I think she's offering he's offering the same stuff, the stale politics. And I want to offer something new. She can't exactly be the Obama 08 candidate or the Reagan 80 candidate is a little bit different. But she does have some separation on she's fresher.

And he's really stale. And this is what we've seen in American politics the last eight years. So I think she can get the upper hand on being somewhat different and newer than he is. It's hard, but he's the only guy you could do it again.

I've always had this theory that the incumbent president dictates what people want. And like whatever the most egregious quality that they don't like about the incumbent, they try and remedy through the next guy they elect. Yeah, they vote for what they think they didn't have the last time, whatever that big contrast is. Yeah, so I've been trying to figure that out in this context recently.

Because the thing they really... I agree with James. Yes, they don't like the economy, but it was more complicated than that. It was Biden is too old, he's weak, and therefore he can't do anything about this. You know, it wasn't so much about the policies. Four days ago, there was a headline in Wall Street Journal about places, incomes up 4%, household income. I mean, that's adjusted for inflation and everything. But my point is...

This is not... Let's just try something new to hell with the whole damn thing. I think it's not quite as broke as we think it's broke in people's minds. No, but what I'm saying is that the thing they were... It was a Biden-specific thing, which was they just thought...

He seemed old and weak and therefore couldn't control events. And so he or she is younger and fresher. And Trump's not an answer to that. You know, what Trump wants to do is make it about the economy, but he can never stick to it. But I'm not sure that's exactly what people are trying to remedy, Murphy. I don't know. I saw that Wall Street Journal thing. I kind of agree with James. When real incomes start going up, that's what people feel.

They've been feeling inflation. But Gallo's got a good joke about when inflation means everything you pay for goes up, and when your salary goes up, that's not the president's fault. That's because you're a good worker. It's all the prices or the president. So that's the vice that Biden got in, that and being too old to do anything about it in people's perception. This rate cut could be a good deal, because after that, you start thinking about refinancing the truck, buying any big purchase, then

The numbers come down. You know, you're in your real life. You can feel it and see it. So I think that could be a bigger turning point here if it happens soon enough to kind of amplify. Though I don't buy the idea that if people think there's a referendum on Bidenomics, I think we all agree that's the worst possible thing for her.

So she's trying to get out of that with a lot of different ways to be the new deal. And I keep pounding because I think if she moves that number, she can win. I don't think anything – I mean, Dobbs is great. She gets it kind of for free, crank it up. But those two things and not getting caught in a border of board tags –

That seems like the path to me. So let's hear her spot now that you raised that. We all know costs are too high. But while corporations are gouging families, Trump is focused on giving them tax cuts. But Kamala Harris is focused on you. Building up the middle class will be a defining goal of my presidency. He'll make groceries more affordable by cracking down on price gouging.

and she'll cut housing costs by taking on corporate speculators. Middle-class families build America. We need a leader who has their back. I'm Kamala Harris, and I approve this message. I think this was one, I think this one was on the national game last night. That was the most interesting thing on a game that the Bears lost, which I'm

I'm shocked. Pretty pissed about. But obviously they're doing what you suggest, Murphy. They're trying to do. I don't know if you could hear this in the actual spot, but, you know, they're positing his tax cuts for billionaires versus her efforts to help middle class people. It's sort of basic stuff, James. It's perfect. I mean, they're players in this, too.

And she's drawing the contrast. It's great. And she's saying that, you know, they're all colluding and Trump is colluding with it. And I think people think that's part of the problem. Yes. Clock's ticking fast. Early voting coming. James, any other moves you'd throw at them? And the metal benders, the Pennsylvanians, the Michigans, kind of the best path. I think she's in the hunt in Georgia now, too. But the tariff stuff.

is cuts both ways. So it cuts well in Western Pennsylvania, not so well in not Western Pennsylvania. It cuts pretty good in Michigan. It cuts terribly in Wisconsin. And if you look at the Anselm support, you look at Iowa, she's only four down. In Nebraska, the independent guy's tied.

I think the tariff stuff really cuts against him in these agricultural states. Now, you need Michigan and western Pennsylvania a lot more than you need Iowa, Nebraska. I agree, but he's in some pretty dangerous territory talking about this, I think. And it's not just the tariffs thing across the board. There's a lot of people that don't like him that had bad experience with him. So, we'll see. But,

I think she's got some good economic arguments to make, and she's got more coming up. And by the way, health care is part of the economy. I'm sorry. To most people, their EKG is the same as their 401K. And he has concepts of a plan. He wants to do this. So we've got subsidies coming up for 23 million people that are on the Affordable Care Act.

We got real hate to make there. How can the economy of barely separated issues anymore? They're all part of one. And all of us have heard focus groups where people say I'm one disease away from bankruptcy. Everybody's heard that.

And so that's another really powerful argument she has working for. And, you know, the simple fact of the matter is the stock market is way up and the crime rate is way down. That's just a fact. I mean, he said in this campaign that he would repeat he wants to do away with the Affordable Care Act again.

Affordable Care Act that's made health care available to tens of millions of people. And by the way, impose some rules on the insurance industry so they couldn't screw people over who are sick.

And so I think there's a ton of ground to be made up there. But, James, let me ask you specifically about Pennsylvania. You're the originator of the famous line that Pennsylvania is Philadelphia and Pittsburgh with Alabama wedged in between.

This was years ago when you were doing a couple of very big races there. Do you think that has changed? And what does she need to do? Right now, that state is basically dead even. What does she need to do to win that state? Pennsylvania's product probably changes dramatically.

A little less than most of the other states. Demographically, population is pretty stable. You know, you just do so much better in the suburbs. I mean, I think you have a problem in Philadelphia City with the black vote in North Philadelphia. We haven't been very good at getting black voters out. Right. And they've tried everything. I mean, Saul Schor has tried, you know, 15 different ways to get this thing better.

But we also do a lot better in suburban Allegheny than we ever dreamed we could before. And, you know, it's going to be close. But they all line up the same. This is my, and I'd like y'all to comment on it. If there's seven swing states, the most unlikely break is 4-3. Yeah, I agree. They move together. Yes, they move. It's going to be 6-1, maybe 5-2 at most.

And if you carry Michigan, you're probably going to carry Pennsylvania. Although when the poll in Pennsylvania looks more iffy right now, I just think that by election day there's equilibrium out there. And that's almost always the case. So, you know, people call, well, even in Pennsylvania, but up three in Wisconsin and up two in Michigan, well,

I'm okay with that. I mean, polling can only be so accurate anyway, but...

You know, they're spending a lot of money, but I have this theory, and feel free to comment it. No one has lost a race in this century for lack of money. Yeah, I agree. It's like, what hurts more, dropping one piano on your head or two? And we always go for two or three pianos, because you can. If you're raised to the money, you spend it, and you sleep better. And I'm with you on the other thing. I think if she wins, she will carry...

Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Georgia. The only one she'll lose is Arizona in her winning combo. And I don't think she's going to quite make it in North Carolina, but who knows? But I agree. I think they'll be together. That's seven. Five-two is a much more likely scenario than four-three. Yeah, I bet on that. Because I'm out of the media business now, I can say this without reservation.

I don't think ads mean a hell of a lot after Labor Day. All right, we got to go to commercial right now. We're getting incoming. I don't think they mean a hell of a lot. I mean, they may— In a presidential. In a presidential race because the candidates are being covered so intensively. Yeah.

And you're being exposed to them in so many different ways that what they're doing and saying every day, I think, is that's the default that people go to. Like, I think you have a lot more chance to move people at the before Labor Day and before the race engages.

than after Labor Day. So we'll see. I mean, she has a tremendous money advantage and that may have organizational benefits in terms of turnout and so on. And yes, at the margins, I think media can help. And this is a marginal race. So but.

I think it's kind of overrated in the sort of day-to-day back and forth and events themselves. I mean, we just saw one yesterday can impact on things. I agree with this. But when you got huge money, you can open up little head fake campaigns and do stuff. And the other guys might be dumb enough to think it's all about ad spending. So they freak out. Holy crap. They're up in, you know, they're trying to steal. Yeah.

you know, Virginia, excuse me, they're trying to steal Florida. They're starting a big abortion bonfire of 20 million bucks. What do we do? What do we do? But fundamentally, you're right. The candidates are the thing, particularly now. So what they do every day is the game. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

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M-E slash hacks for 15% off your very first purchase. Thank you, Lumen, for sponsoring this episode. So, Carvel, you think she should be doing more stuff, more interviews with local stations, more... Some. Where is it written you got to sit there for long, warm interviews? You know what? If you do it, it's never going to be enough.

Right, right. Until they destroy you. The press will leave you alone. No, they won't. It's never going to be. You think she's going to do one hour in doing it? Well, that's it. We say she does move on. No, I have a lot of questions she didn't answer. No, I agree. I agree. I don't think I don't. The question isn't really should she do it to satisfy the media that she's doing media? The question is, is there value in her dropping in on these issues?

On, you know, like local TV stations and just beaming and doing it. Yeah, I think she should agree and let the steam out of it. Yeah. Yeah. The locals good because softer interview. You get a lot of credit for it. The national stuff, as you guys all know, is the game of gotcha.

And right now she's riding a little high and they're thinking, well, she had no primary. Let's give her the hammer and see how she does. So I think their instinct to do the old Ming Boz campaign and be careful is right. But you've got to do just enough to let the steam out so it's not a thing. You know, she's the one calling for another debate. Yeah, I love that. Talk about it at the next debate that I want to have that he doesn't want to have. What are you talking about? More important for me to sit there and let voters know.

Look at us on Varnish for 90 minutes, then me sitting around on Sunday morning, you know, for 15 minutes, you know, chasing me around, trying to catch me and this and that. You know, I mean, she's got a good attitude. I'm thinking of it more as an offensive strategy to go to places where you, you know, go to the small markets and show connection with those areas and, you know, not to satisfy the sort of media lust for...

Those interviews. Speaking of this, and I probably should have raised it in connection with the beginning topic, but, you know, Trump and Vance and Vance started it, did this whole deal about Springfield, Ohio, the conspiracy theory that Springfield, Ohio is.

that Haitian immigrants are eating dogs and cats, stealing people's dogs. I hadn't heard about this. What's going on? So I want to play you. I mean, Vance is their guy, right? On these Sunday shows. And he's, he did the whole round of them on Sunday. I wanted to play one exchange he had with Dana Bash on this subject. Cause I thought it was pretty revealing. I,

I've been trying to talk about the problems in Springfield for months and the American media ignored it. There was a congressional hearing just last week of angel moms who lost children because Kamala Harris let criminal migrants into this country who then murdered their children. The American media totally ignored this stuff until Donald Trump and I started talking about cat memes.

If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that's what I'm going to do, Dana, because you guys are completely letting Kamala Harris coast. You had one interview with her. I mean, he just basically said we made it up. Yeah.

I mean, give him credit for being honest. And what they think in the back of their mind is, you know, we brought it up. Who cares if it's true or not? We're talking about immigrants eating dogs and cats.

And then, of course, you have a favorite is like the Wall Street Journal editorial page or Bill Ackman or Ken Griffin. We need to talk about the issues. If you just talked about the issues. Well, Laura Loomis got an issue sledgehammer out there. Yeah, who's traveling around on a plane. And that's the issue that they got to talk about.

They crack me up. If he just talked about the issues, you know, if he just talked about giving rich people more tax cuts and poor people would be grateful that they'll get a cut of it. Of course, he's got Laura Luma and Corey Lewandowski, and you think they give a shit about the issues? I don't think so. I don't think they issue people. What they do care about, Murphy, is lighting fuses.

Of course. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And Vance is playing the oldest game in the world. And it can work, which is you reporters are being too soft on the other candidate. And then they get insecure and they think maybe that's true because they're all voting for her.

And because for a lot of reasons, including Trump's madness is number one. So they start thinking, you know, maybe we should be harder on her. Reporters are kind of insecure about that when you criticize them for not looking at the other side. So that, you know, that's his game. It's just he's trying everything he can to put a wrench in the machinery side issues, because if the fundamental issue is Trump, they lose. But guys,

The underlying thing they're trying to do is the thing that we've seen a million times before, which is, I mean, this is the caravan of 2018. Right, right. You know, the border is settled down now, so they don't have the stories every day of a border that's poor.

porous and all that stuff. So they create this. And, James, how much power do you think beating that drum has the sort of be scared, be very scared of immigrants?

Look, it's got some power. And be very afraid of immigration. It's got some power. I thought she was good in a debate. Maybe you're not going to win that issue, but you're not going to get beat 80-20 anymore. You're going to get beat 58-42. And it's not, the point you make is, it's not a caravan. They can't go to the border now and have migrants flooding over like they could at one time. And it was everyone, and I'll be very clear,

Everybody that has ever listened to anything the Western left, I mean the fall left, has said has come to regret it. Harris's 2020 campaign was a disaster. She listened to these people. What happened earlier in the Biden administration, he listened to them and did not do what he needed to do on immigration. They are 100% disaster in everything that they far and whoever touches them lives to regret it.

They just do every time. Yes, I think she's done a really good job of pushing back and embracing the bill that Trump vetoed and making it clear that she's going to be tough on this. And I think she used language in the debate that is important. She has elsewhere like.

You know, whatever you think about him, you know, wherever you stand on immigration, there has to be rules. I mean, there has to be borders. We have to enforce them. People have to abide by them. I think that's the thing that people want to hear. I think it's less Murphy that they fear they're going to be somehow assaulted by immigrants than that. It offends them that people are not playing by the rules when they think they are.

Yeah. No, look, the immigration issue works big. It doesn't work. There are crazy Haitians running around with kebab skewers looking for your dog. That's where Trump kills himself. He takes big, powerful issues and chops them into this really toxic stuff. It works great with Republican primary voters like Trump, but it's a narrow deal and it becomes a laughingstock. There is $500 million in

Free advertising right now on social media, mocking the hell out of him in advance. We got singing dogs and cats. It's become a whole. It's eaten the Internet for a week. And that's time they don't have where they ought to be moving forward. So the issue has power, but his clown shoes are getting in the way because he can never underplay something.

And no, I don't think they're going to get elected president by saying, lock up your dog. They're looking for lunch. It's just, it's a parody. You know, it was a gift to her. Hey, James, talk about this documentary on the 5th of October. First of all, how do you feel about being the subject of... Let's back up to the origins of this, okay?

The origin of this was Susan McHugh, who became Harry Reid's chief of staff at 38 years old, the youngest female chief of staff in the history of the United States Senate. And it wasn't that long ago. I think, you know, when I was a young student at Rutgers, I sat there and watched the war room, and it just made me want to get into politics.

And I think when the two of you see this, what I hope it is, is a kind of a subtle love letter to the profession. Yeah. That, hey, these people had a good time doing what they do. They seem to work. We're keeping young people. Oh, it's terrible. It's corrupt. It's it's it's.

You know, it's all partisan. It's all everything. And what a surprise that young people don't want to get into politics because they think it's a dirty, unfun business. And I hope that this film, people said, well, you know what? They look like they had a good time. They enjoyed themselves and they made a difference in people's lives. So that's what

I hope is the message that really comes out of this. It does. I've seen a screener in one. I enjoyed the hell out of it. Everybody ought to tune it in. And it made me miss the good old days. We had a hell of a time in the 80s, 90s and early 2000s doing this. And now it's it's I feel bad for the kids who are in the business now who are in a

a grimmer world of this than we got to enjoy. And I think Mary said something about it and you did. And I want to underline that because maybe this will get them interested again. Because it was great. I mean, you know, we beat the hell out of each other. But it was a hell of a lot of fun to admit the best of people, the worst of people. Couldn't have had a better ride. I felt very lucky. Murphy, you and I had some fun beating the hell out of each other. But it was also interesting.

The joy of doing something important together, the community that you build around campaigns and this sense of mission that drew people together. You know, James, when Obama first met with the senior leadership of his presidential campaign, one of the things he said was, listen,

He said, uh, run for president is a deadly serious thing. He said, but there ought to be joy in it too. He said, what an incredible privilege to be part of this process and we ought to enjoy it and enjoy each other. And we're going to make mistakes. Uh,

And, you know, we're all going to make mistakes. I'm going to make them. You're going to make them. We'll get through that. He said, but let's really enjoy this because it's going to be a hell of a ride. And that is, you know, that was a wonderful sort of admonition to the group. But I yeah, I love that. I want to say.

And I wouldn't say it. I would find a polite way to talk around it. I love the film. I love you. You're a you're a great friend and really one of the great characters in American politics. And I think, you know, everybody knows you because you're the most important.

One of the most quotable guys in American politics and one of the most authentic guys in American politics. But the thing you also take away from this that's important is for all of that, you are you believe.

You believe in this. You believe in that you can actually help people through this process, that you can make the world a better place, that you can make communities a better place, that you can lift up people who deserve to be lifted up, who are working hard and not getting a break.

The thing that drives James Carville is very clear in this film. So it's fun. The joy of campaigns is fun. But the reason you're the central character and the reason you were so good at what you do is because you believe in this. And it's a mission and you approached it like a mission. And it's really fun to watch.

It's fun to see and fun to learn about how you... I remember when I met you. I remember when I met you when you were, I think by that time, 46 years old. It was at a party Murphy for Bob Shrum. And it was right after the Casey race. And, you know, it was very clear right from the beginning that you were unique and very...

special. And so I'm, you know, you deserve to be remembered in this way, lionized in this way. I will echo all that and just add, I like you because you're a damn pirate, James. You're fun. And you never apologize for our chosen profession, which I appreciate. And, you know, if we can get

Before I leave, you know, we have the story of the three Emanuel boys. One became a famous oncologist and great. One changed the way Hollywood did things. And the other one was instrumental in getting 23 million people health insurance. Always remember, at the end of the day, what we do is really important.

It's really, really, really important, right? And for good or bad. But we never have to worry. Working in politics makes a difference for good or bad to a lot of people. And I appreciate the kind words from you guys who, you know, Hall of Fame, Legends in the Business. And for you all to say that means a lot to me. And I think it'll mean a lot to people who

We'll give a green light to watch a movie and have a good time. It's kind of fun. It's not just a, you don't wear a hair shirt the whole way. It's a great film. You're going to start a craze for hotel jogging, by the way. I think that's, I'm teasing the film here. You all ought to check it out because it is, it's fun, fun, fun, fun stuff. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. And Mary's in it too. And she's great. As you know, we go way back in Republican stuff. Yeah. She was,

right in it. She was like a co-star. And people forget Mary was

Dick Cheney would have buckled 9-11. And Cheney would go and meet the press and sit there. And Mary did the whole prep. He kicked John Edwards' ass in a debate. We all thought John Edwards was going to run all over Cheney because he was a great trial lawyer. Remember that 2004 debate? Mary was a hell of a political consultant. We tend to forget that stuff. We should just say we don't want to get ahead of everybody. I guess everybody who listens to Hacks on Top probably know this, but we're talking about Mary Madeline Cheney.

James's wife, who they met when they were opposite numbers in politics. And that's a great story in and of itself. So that's October 5th. On CNN. We've got to do a mailbag, right? We're getting every letters. All right. Let's go to the music. Listener mail.

If you've got a question for the mailbag, email us at axontap at gmail.com, axontap at gmail.com. You can send us a voicemail and we'll play your voice on the air. Just use your name and no long speeches. That's Axelrod's job. Keep it to like 25 seconds. Just email it to us at our address. Okay.

Questions now. You got the raging cage in here. Let's find a good one for him. James, a guy named Tom left a voicemail, and it's on the subject of the vice president and the vice presidential debate, I should say. Let's hear that. Hey, guys. It's Tom, a recent transplant from Red Naperville to even Redder Tucson. My question is, with only one debate left, that's the Tim Walz

Do you expect him or do you think he'll be able to carry the message that the Kamala campaign is trying to get in terms of economics and migration and things of that nature? And do you think he'll be up to it? Thanks a lot. Love the show. Bye-bye. So Harris's preparation for the debate was really stellar. And his was awful. When Biden had an awful debate,

David, people like myself and David and Pelosi and a lot of other people said this can't stand. We can't do this. It can't happen. And we didn't make a change as a party. They just keep funding this. It was an utter lack of preparation, lack of discipline, no practice, no anything. And it showed. Now, it's votes that they're for one. And Vance is a

much more is a bright man, whatever you want to think of Vance. He's obviously well-educated and he'll prepare. But I think Walt will do just fine. I expect him to do really good. And I think the same people that basically prepped the vice president are going to prep Governor Walt. And I expect him to be as prepared as the vice president was. I expect Vance to be more prepared than Trump was. I guess that's what I'd say. Right.

I would agree. So Murphy, Steve says, I currently live in Michigan's 7th congressional district where former state senator Curtis Hertel is running for the Democrats in this vacant seat. This is the seat that Alyssa Slotkin is giving up.

the Democratic nominee for Senate. Should moderates like Mr. Hertel be running with the Harris-Waltz campaign or rather try and appeal to Trump voters in this R plus two district? Well, first of all, that is my that's the revolutionary cradle. That's very close to where I'm from.

So anyway, if you're not from Michigan, the Hertels are famous there in Michigan politics. Good lunch pail Democrats. I was always on the other side politically, but a lot of respect for Dennis Hertel. He's a good guy, was a very successful Paul there, knows that district that's in their DNA. His son's running in a swing seat. That is a hot, hot race. And so I would just say, no, don't run away from Harris-Waltz. Enhance it. You don't have to make this choice.

Hurtel is the kind of guy who can peel some votes off the hours in that district because he culturally understands it so well. And the family has such a history there of being good public servants. So that's one of the most interesting congressional races in the country, Michigan 7, and in this crazy Trump era.

For the first time in my long history as a loyal Republican of Michigan, I'm going to bend my rule a little, take off my elephant trunk hat. And I sure hope, boy, it's going to be a tough one. But I hope Curtis Hertel pulls off a win there. I think he'd be an excellent member of Congress and represent that district well. I thought they took that hat away from you a long time ago. No, I still wear it, though. It's got a few wounds and scratches on it, but I'm fighting from the inside. All right, David, a question for you. This comes from Ryan.

My question is regarding focus groups. After the debate, every network seemed to highlight how the debate impacted a small number of people's choice between Trump and Harris. My question is, how much do campaigns use focus groups? Are the sample sizes larger than what the networks do?

Finally, how much do focus group results impact a campaign strategy? Great question, Ryan. I'll just preface it quickly by saying what you see on network TV is more showbiz than real focus group. But go ahead, David. I don't think that the selection of people that you see on television is what really constitutes a campaign.

focus group. Actual focus groups are recruited pretty rigorously from, you know, to represent different elements of the electorate. And, you know, their voting history is known to the people who are recruiting them. They're asked a series of questions before they are selected for the focus group. Both campaigns may be talking to voters who have voted, you know, who might have voted for

Obama and Trump or Trump and Biden. And, you know, there are all kinds of ways to separate people's

And campaigns do use them. And I'm a big believer in them. Mike, I don't know how you feel about this, but, you know, they're not you can't rely on them the way you would rely on polls. And you have to do, you know, quantitative research, too. But what happens in focus groups is that people say things that you might not have thought of.

They say things in their own way. You learn things that, you know, and polls are only as good as the input you have. These focus groups can help you really understand how people are thinking about politics.

issues and the things that are concerning them and why they're concerning them. Oftentimes, they're counterintuitive, and they'll say things that, you know, so their real value, you know, the TV stuff, less so. I mean, it's interesting, but it doesn't really, you know, it doesn't mean as much. They don't predict elections. They're very different than polls. They're the flavor test.

And what happens when you're designing a poll, you got to figure out, all right, we're going to talk to 800 people here scientifically. What are we going to ask them? And focus groups often help you design better polling questionnaires because things bubble up in their own language what they're thinking about. And it gives you a lot of what we call qualitative insight rather than quantitative. So the worst thing on the TV one is when they're raising their hand, oh, they're five to four winning the election. Yeah.

a misreading of what they're really about. They're the essay question. They're the Rorschach test to get you more connected to the voters. They go to design the polls. So I agree. They're of tremendous value if done well, which means rigorous sample, a lot of stuff that is really not worth it. And good moderation because one of the things that makes focus groups work is that you don't have a moderator who's leading the group or judging people or

And, you know, great focus group moderators are moderate. I mean, in their temperament. Yeah, exactly. But they engage people. By the way, often they're segregated.

Or by a race. You get a bunch of African-American women together. It's going to sound a lot different than a mixed group. Yeah, people are going to be more open. They're going to be more open. Yeah. All right. Well, we have to be open with our listeners. We're out of time. We are. But we will be back next week. They'll undoubtedly be 16-ish.

events between now and then that will warrant our attention because we're down to the final straw 50 days, folks. Yeah. And with early voting, even less than that. So, hey, whatever you're doing with all this, I hope listening to us is part of it. Don't forget to put a little time aside in October and watch that Carville documentary. We got an early look and it is a tremendous amount of fun.

One of the great originals. And I'll tell you, just an appreciation, I think you're going to agree, Carville's real secret monkey trick is not the twang and the homespun stuff and the corporal cue ball. It is that guy is smart as a razor.

If he had been born in Cambridge, he'd probably be one of the top litigators in the country. So there's a huge IQ behind all that. And I think you see glimpses of it in the documentary. And just a good egg. Absolutely. All true. All true. James Carville.

living legend and one of the great guys on the planet. It's good to be with you. Thank you for joining us. All right, James. Thank you. Thank you. Thank y'all. Thank y'all. Thank y'all. All right, brother. See you next time. See you, pal.