Deep Dive
Shownotes Transcript
Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. Today a judge put on a gag order.
I'll be the only politician in history that runs with a gag order where I'm not allowed to criticize people. Can you imagine this? Do you believe this? I'm not allowed to criticize people. So we'll see. We'll appeal it and we'll see. But it's so unconstitutional. The good thing is we have so much support. It's incredible. And it just makes it even more so. Look, I'm the only guy that ever got indicted. I got indicted more than Alphonse Capone. Did anyone ever hear of Al Capone? Al Capone, if you looked him...
If you looked at him the wrong way, he was seriously tough, right? Scarface. You know, they call him Scarface. Had a little scar in there. So there you have it, Mike Murphy. Donald Trump, a relentless champion of constitutionality, offended-
Because a judge in Washington said he couldn't publicly put a target on the back of prosecutors and the judge and witnesses in the case. We'll have more to say about that. Yeah, it's a disaster to think. Just think of the Excedrin sales. If Trump were gagged, you know, could wipe them out for the great work he's done for Heffner.
headache relief and other things. Yeah, pass some way, because just listening to that clip has given me one. And of course, he pleasured us by opening up his hall of admired people. You know that Al Capone? Now there was somebody. It's just, it never ceases to amaze. But we have a great guest to help us try to make it less amazing. Yes. Who could that be? It's someone from the Political Writers Hall of Fame.
John Harwood, who just recently sat down with the President of the United States and did an interview with him. Harwood, good to see you. Hey, great to be here. You know, I want to ask you about that clip that we just heard, because we mock him, but the truth is, there is a certain brilliance to what he does, which is to turn everything into martyrdom.
And, you know, I mean, he said, I think maybe in that same litany, he said, or he may have said it elsewhere, but, you know, if I have to go to jail, I'll go to jail. For you, for you, the people. Exactly, exactly. Now, I don't think they're ever going to send him to jail, but at least for this. But he has turned this story around.
in such a way that I believe, and I'm going to say this because I love watching Murphy erupt, I believe there is no Republican primary anymore. I think Donald Trump is going to be the nominee of the Republican Party, and he's actually written indictments to the nomination, Harwood. Well, he's probably going to be the Republican nominee, but
Mike and I, and we've talked about this, are two of the few people in our world who think it's not completely over. I still think that it's possible that the combination of his age, because Joe Biden's not the only one who's old, and I think Joe Biden is probably significantly healthier than Donald Trump.
The financial and personal stress of the various legal jeopardy events that he is facing, the fact that he does have the talent, as you mentioned, that he's forged a connection with a segment of the Republican Party that's very strong, but he's also a bit deranged.
And, or not just a bit. And I think the combination of those two... Unlike the healthy, grounded guy he was in 2016 when he got elected president. Well, right. No, but he's Pericles the Orator compared. I mean, there has been a decline, but go ahead, John. Well, I just think there is a possibility that we get to some point early in 2024 where
where all of these problems sort of reach a critical mass and the floor falls in. I'm not predicting that. I think it's likely that he's the nominee, but I don't dismiss the possibility that when it comes right down to it, the party, for reasons of substance or from concern that he's not electable,
and somebody else looks appealing, I think it's possible that they go in a different direction. Couldn't have said it better myself, John. Yeah, in fact, I think you have said it, Murphy. I've said it 200 times. Well, you take the easy bet. I like the long shots going out on the limb. I'm not predicting it either, but I do think...
Trump right now is a very heavy guy jumping up and down on a floor filled with termites. So we're seeing. We're seeing. Well, he's certainly a very heavy guy. Whether the floor has termites remains to be seen. Right. Well, that's the great debate that's illuminated this show for so long. So let's see. Here's the thing. Because I was looking at various polling averages, and you said, I think, properly in the summer, Mike, well, it's early. Yeah.
It's early. These polls don't mean anything. It's early. When do you think that, when is it going to start getting late? Because we're almost into November. And you know what? Every week you tell me that he's crumbling in Iowa. He's weak in New Hampshire. His polling average in Iowa is,
past 50 for the first time in this whole campaign in this past week. No, no, I get it. I think we are in the beginning of the end right now. The New Hampshire filing deadline's coming up. Yes. This has been the week to get your papers in, candidates. So I don't know, somehow Glenn Youngkin didn't catch that bus north. But no, look, if you look at the polling averages, you know exactly what would happen if there's an election held tomorrow.
I just know there's a lot of turbulence in the last six weeks of the process. It's the nature of these primaries, and we're creeping into that now. I do, if you wander around New Hampshire aimlessly and concern people like I often do, you do hear a different vibe now. It's the
All the talk is about Haley. It reminds me of the beginning of other campaigns that have made a big move. But so many pieces have to fall into place. I don't think any of the challengers have really
run much of an anti-Trump campaign. I think whatever opportunity of termites eating the wood under them that may or may not be there, they've done a lousy job of exploiting it. But it is starting to move to one person. That's true of the high dollar donor world. Her financial situation is a lot better. She's the best performer. And, you know, people have listened to us for, you know, I'm not a huge fan, but compared to Trump, I go, go, Nikki, go. So I
Everything I predict about the end of the year being turbulent and maybe having a surprising outcome is starting now. And as far as what I believe the polls that predict what will happen in New Hampshire tomorrow,
I'll start looking at them in December, and then I'll really look at them right at the end of January. I don't believe in the national polling. There's no national primary. People are elected by delegates chosen in a domino. You know all this. Yes, I do know that. I'm a late-surge guy, and I'm waiting for it. I will say, to David's point, it was precisely at this time in 2015 when debates were accelerating. We had one on CNBC that became very acrimonious, and
Donald Trump and Ben Carson were leading the Republican field. And I was sitting there having seen this for several election cycles and, you know, benefited from your wisdom, both of your wisdom along the way. I, I expected that the balloon was going to be pricked and those, those less serious candidates would fade away. And the serious players, the Marco Rubio's and the,
Well, Rubio in particular, I thought, and Jeb Bush, others were going to rise to the top. And of course, it didn't happen. So, you know, certainly we could be in the same position this time. Yeah. Look, if the election is all tomorrow, Trump's the nominee. And if you put a gun to my head, I think it's more likely Trump than not. I just think there's a working chance of turbulence here. And will it be enough to dethrone him? That's the other problem. You need the perfect back-to-back win. But Nikki's moving. I'll tell you that. I don't know if she's moving enough, but there is a dynamic building. Yeah. Yeah.
Okay. It doesn't buy it for a minute. No, no, no, no. Listen, you know what I believe. You're a soulful dude who believes in stuff. And I wish, you know, what I believe is that the Republican Party right now
is not your Republican Party. It's not like the majority of Republicans are sort of unorganized and therefore Trump is romping here. He's got a grip on
on this party. And a reflection of that is about to happen potentially in the House of Representatives. I mean, they're voting today on the speakership. And all the indications are right now, Jordan may be short, but he was 55 short on Friday. He was 12 short on yesterday. I'm told he's seven short
This morning, and this thing is moving his way, Trump's guy. I'm not sure that's because of Trump, though. I'm hearing he's not going to make it today, and it's farther than seven. I predicted Scalise last time, and I think you predicted he wouldn't quite get there, and he didn't. And now the two great forces are idiots. We got to do something. This anarchy can't last versus we all hate Jordan. And there's a block of kind of the old school chairman and people like that who just, thank God, won't go there.
So we're C. We're C. I mean, the holdouts or the people who were holdouts were moderates or, you know, in this context. Or institutionalists. Institutionalists. You know, old school conservatives who know the guy's a villain. Yes, but they're institutionalists and institutionalists are.
are very bad insurgents. Institutionalists aren't the ones who chuck the grenade in and say, we're not going to move until this guy goes away. No, I take your point. But on the other hand, they're not anarchists either. So I'm sure it's hard to be an institutionalist now where you have to choose between chaos and evil. Well, I mean, look, that's the point. They're getting ready. And I think it appears likely that Jordan gets there.
That they're electing the grenade tosser. I mean, that's what Jim Jordan's all about. I think it's a pretty grave moment for the country and the Republican Party. Yeah, suicide note. That you have somebody who was an active participant in what Donald Trump was trying to do after 2020 when he lost.
They're making that person Speaker of the House. You know, with Kevin McCarthy, Kevin McCarthy believed in nothing. He was a cipher. And that allowed people to say, well, he's really just a Chamber of Commerce Republican who's playing this game to become the Speaker. Jim Jordan is somebody who, as John Boehner used to say, was a legislative terrorist. There was no positive agenda whatsoever. It was a destructive agenda.
And he's speaking for a segment of the Republican Party, as Trump is, who it's not just as people used to, Bill Buckley used to say of conservatives, you know, standing toward history and yelling stop. They're trying to roll back the clock. And you can't do that.
And so what you end up doing is having a politics of old men yelling at clouds. And you don't know that that's a bad thing. I do it all the time, but your wider point is important. But you have to acknowledge that it is possible that being speaker would push or compel or force Jim Jordan to be different. But based on who he is and what he's shown himself to be,
He is a dangerous figure from the standpoint of protecting the American experiment. And that's not good. The job of speaker is not a job for a bomb thrower. What he will do is he'll be on television every single day, bloviating. What he won't be doing is traveling the country, raising money, helping to elect. I mean, this is a...
I think this is a really serious blow to
to Republicans in these swing districts. Oh, it's terrible. It's a suicide note. By the way, if the speaker does the office provide him with a sport coat, can we finally solve that problem or send them down to Montgomery? Or will everybody in the house be in shirt sleeves? Yeah, no, great, great. Murphy, he's like, let me just ask you this though. It seems to me that, you know, he is, he is, he may be less of a strategic thinker
But in some ways, he's certainly the most luminescent Republican speaker since Gingrich. Well, let's not forget, he is a four-star candidate.
AAA certified supporter of all the election denialism, the craziest kind of Trumpian, the election with Stolten. I mean, he has gone all the way there to burn down the institution stuff. So this is the first time we've had a speaker who apparently thinks the Constitution is a pliable, phony document not really to believe. I mean, the guy's dangerous and he's politically a complete disaster.
And he's an egomaniac, so he's going to want to grab the microphone and do whatever he can. I think his special sauce, and I'm not as far down the path as you guys that he's going to get it today, is, well, he's a fighter. He's going to take it to Hunter Biden and those Democrats because the media is in their pocket, and we're going to finally push back because we're the victims here. It's kind of a version of Trump's mentality. And it's just so...
so toxic. I predict if he becomes Speaker, you're going to see more retirements. You know, it's just going to be bad. It's once again proof that there's a great and unseen force that decides, well,
I guess I'll do whatever I have to to prop up President Biden's shaky re-election, because politically, this Republican suicide is a great political gift to the president of all his problems. It's a very interesting sociological exercise, though, that many of these people who understand who Jim Jordan is and what he's about and were making stands against him
Art being sucked down by the peer pressure, by the sort of cultural power of the team, the tribe. And that is what people who write about the fate of democracy say happens, is you get people who are...
actually do have an investment, do have some capital in the system, do believe in preserving the elements of our institutions and our democracy getting sucked down because they ultimately don't have the gumption or the wherewithal to stand up against it. And we're seeing that
member after member now as as mike just indicated you know there may be 10 or 20 who are uh sterner made of sterner stuff than that but that's what we're going to find out the next couple days right right we're down to that it's the franz von poppin thing we can manage him it's crazy go ahead yes exactly my point is this i think that to not recognize that there's a connection between
between the forces that have propelled Trump and the forces that have made it possible for Jordan to be on the doorstep of the speakership is wrong. The reason all these guys, yes, some of them are submitting because they recognize that it's been an unbelievable spectacle that they can't choose a leader and that it's hurting the Republican Party in the country. But there's also...
You know, they unleashed the dogs on these people over the weekend and threatened their reelects. And the first instinct of politicians is to stay elected. Right. Survive.
And so, you know, they went all, what's the President Biden's dog that bites everybody, Commander? Commander. They went all Commander on these recalcitrant Republicans over the weekend. Well, they turned it into a primary without a primary. Yes, exactly. It's like Hannity's going to yell at me on Fox and...
There go the free haircuts. And he did. Hannity was like the campaign manager. Well, let's see. You know, we're right in the old bit here based on the CW, which may be correct of the weekend that, you know, Hannity yelled at people because Jordan told him to. And now Jordan speaker, I want to.
I actually want to see the gavel start to melt in his wicked claw before I go there. But if it happens, you're right. Tiny little claw. Yeah, right. Right. Exactly. Yes. I mean, it's not a good auguring for the Republican Party. Hey, if we were a more organized podcast, which everyone who listens to this knows we're not. We're like jazz musicians, David. We're scatting. But go ahead.
Yeah, exactly. That's what I was thinking. Baba, baba, boom. There you go. A little rim shot can we get? There we go. There we go. Which one of you is Miles Davis? I'm more of a Thelonious Monk kind of cat myself. I forgot to mention earlier the FEC reports. Oh, yeah. FEC report is the favorite junkie food for folks like us because every quarter when you're running for federal office, you have to file a report showing...
what you spent your money on and who. So the consultants all love that. Can you believe that idiot got paid and who gave you money? And most importantly, how much debt you have in your campaign and the campaign manager's desk that's on cash on hand and cash on hand, which is kind of like the weigh in before a heavyweight fight. We're in the fourth quarter. We got expensive TV device. Slugger DeSantis is only weighing in at ninety nine pounds.
What? So, with that introduction. Well, there are a couple that are noteworthy. One is Mike Pence had scarcely over a million dollars on hand. And the question, I think now's the time to start talking about who's getting voted off the island before this thing even starts. Totally.
Why would you go through with the Iowa caucuses at this point? Why humiliate yourself? I agree. Look, now, I know what they're all saying. Well, I'll look at it after that Miami debate because I have the new one-liner about the woodsmen in the aisle. If he makes it, I don't know if he'll make it.
Well, exactly. That's the other problem. Better to say, you know, it's not my time than to be, you know, get the hook and get pulled off stage, you know, stage left. Pence is over. Christie is over. Tim Scott, who is canceling his super PAC by because he's got money.
is over. And if you really believe that Trump's a threat, you got to clear the way for Nikki and hold your nose like I'm doing and being totally for her. Don't you guys think that Pence and Christie knew that this wasn't going to be happening for them and they were in it for other reasons?
You know, Christie decided that he was going to, you know, throw a few javelins at Trump and Pence wanted to sort of stand up for who he was so that his...
the very last thing he did in politics was not be Donald Trump's vice president. I think this not surprising. I think he's accomplished that. I do think Mike Pence wanted to reclaim his own identity. I think it's all true, but I never met a politician who doesn't secretly think, but once they get a load of me in Iowa and New Hampshire, who knows what could happen? So they were buying the lottery ticket. Yeah, I think Christie genuinely thought if he could get something going in New Hampshire that he could potentially outlast Trump.
some of the others and become the alternative to Trump. But his numbers among Republicans, I like Chris Christie, his numbers among Republicans are terrible. So, I mean, you can't have like these profoundly negative ratings in a party when you're running to be its nominee and expect to win. He's the guy, by the way, who
I mean, there's going to be a lot of pressure on him to get out because he's sharing vote with Haley there in New Hampshire. Well, why don't we do the official Hacks on Tap $1 betting pool on who's next to go? And I'll throw Burgum. Oh, your guy. Your guy. My guy for 10 seconds at the beginning of the race when he had a good video. And then all of a sudden he turned into a...
candidate for Secretary of Energy. You missed this, Harwood. There was a little Burgum boom here on Hacks on Tap, Murphy. Yeah, for about 12 minutes. It was a good video. Look, again, I was a sucker for this. Same with Tim Scott.
At the beginning, somebody who looked like they were going to do the more optimistic reformation time to move the party forward, Trump in the rearview mirror thing. I was all in because I think that message has power and none of them had the guts to use it. Scott could have been that guy lasted about a week.
Burgum lasted about, I don't know how long the video was for. Yeah. You've killed off two guys. He has here enjoying this too much. Wait, wait till AOC is leading in your primary in 2028. I have, I got a note from Haley here saying, please tell Murphy not to endorse my candidacy. I hate him right back. Tell him to get behind Trump, save the country. Uh, so anyway, I, in my, I'm predicting Scott will be out before Burgum, which is, it's kind of a crime against nature, but, um,
That's what I think. You don't cancel when you have a lot of cash on hand. Scott could stay until the bitter end. My prediction is it's coming. Yeah, the fact that they canceled their media buy, which was substantial. Yeah, no, he was a cash-on-hand leader other than Trump. Yes. Stakes are pretty low for Doug Berger. Yeah. That's true. He's going to have a comeback in the South Dakota primary later, you see, and that's going to turn it all around. Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back. ♪
We've proven ourselves to be the hacks on tap by not leading with the war, which is obviously far and away the biggest story going on in the world right now. The president has headed off to Israel and he's been very outspoken. He did a rare TV interview on 60 Minutes on Sunday. It was the second one in the last month. Second with 60 Minutes?
Or are you talking about your interview? Second interview in the last month. We're going to get to your interview, Harlan. Don't worry about it. Read the notes, David. We're going to get to your interview with him. But that was on democracy, and we're going to get to that. This was on Israel. And he's very animated on the subject, as you can hear in this clip. Are the wars in Israel and Ukraine more than the United States can take on at the same time? Or the United States of America, for God's sake.
The most powerful nation in the history, not in the world, in the history of the world. The history of the world. We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defense. So the question is, this is a crass question. We talked about this last time, Murphy. Does this help him long run? Does this help him or not? I saw a poll yesterday that said he had 47% Americans approved or it said they had confidence in his campaign.
leadership on in handling this war, which was far better than his ratings on other subjects.
But still, what are the risks and rewards here for him politically? Well, I think it's pretty simple. It helps and hurts him simultaneously. It's like everything with Biden. You know, I often say the problem with the age issue is perception is reality. It's like growing antlers one day. And no matter what he does, even stuff where he's being pretty effective, people are like, well, what about those damn antlers growing out of his head? Yes.
So he's, you know, one, on a policy basis, I think he's doing a good job. Yeah. It's a very, it's one of these multiple choice questions, pick your pain. But the plus is bigger spotlight for Biden to be presidential and in charge. The minus is it's still Biden. I mean, John, you, I'm really curious about you and your interview for just the optics of it. I found we're kind of in a weird Nixon thing here where
Unlike Nixon, Biden does worse when you just hear the sound, I think, even with the antlers. What's he like when you're with him? Does he break into, boy, you see Babe Ruth last night? Or sharp, sharp, sharp, because he sounded pretty sharp and looked pretty sharp in your interview. But you've been around a lot of Pauls. Before, John, you answer that, let's listen to a little bit of it. If the former president were to become president again, the things he says he will do are a threat to American democracy.
And by the way, it's not just here. As I travel the world, I have heads of state asking me, I mean, concern of heads of state. Look, what's going to happen? Does that mean? Because democracy is in jeopardy in other parts of the world as well. And, you know, Madeleine Albright was right. We are the essential nation. If it fails here, Katie, bar the door.
Pretty good. Yeah. You didn't, that was not unedited. That was as presented. Yes, exactly. Look, he is very warm and personable. I think he, the wheels engage on all the questions. His answers sometimes wander a little bit and that may obscure some of his meaning. But look, he's there and he's doing the job. Personally, I find some of the age discussion a little bit tiresome for this reason. Yes, he is old. Yes, he looks old.
sounds old. All that's true. He's the incumbent president running with a strong record. Nobody's going to beat him. Nobody serious is even running against him. And so he's going to be the nominee in the primary. Correct. And so you, you, you know, there are all these op-eds and columns saying, you know, Democrats need to wake up and do something. There is no democratic party that's going to do anything. I remember back in 1992,
when Mike was advising Dan Quayle, David, my memory is you were not participating in the 92 campaign with the candidate. I did not. Okay. No, you know, actually, I mean, I was helping, I helped Clinton at the margins. Yeah. Okay. He was suspended for poor behavior at the DNC meeting, but we don't need to get into that. For having secret friendship with Murphy. Yeah. Yeah. Another career destroyed. There was a point in the springtime when I was, um,
hanging around with Bob Teeter and Peter Hart, who were doing the Wall Street Journal, NBC News poll. And Peter just, as we were walking over to talk to the Dow Jones Board of Directors, Peter just said, Clinton can't be elected. So why not? He says his negatives are too high. Nobody's ever been elected with negatives that high.
He was not nominated at that point. I said, well, what's the Democratic Party going to do about it? And he said, nothing. There is nothing the Democratic Party can do. He's on track to be the nominee, and he is going to be the nominee.
And he got elected. So, you know, sometimes it is what it is. And I agree with much of what you said. First of all, I think Biden's problem. I agree with both you guys. Biden's problem is presentational. I mean, I think that there's a lot of evidence of competence there.
You know, and you can see it at play here on the Middle East. You know, the moves he's made has been the right move, sending the destroyers to the region to discourage other malign actors from getting involved, Iran and others. You know, he's doing the job. His presentation is not good, and it's eroding.
And the question, John, I agree he's going to be the nominee. And I've said this now for some time. It's like an academic question.
And in fact, the deadline for filing in New Hampshire is next Friday. If anybody were going to take Joe Biden on, the way you'd start is in New Hampshire, where he, you know. No, it's not going to happen. I thought about it, but I can't get a flight there today. So it's over. So I can imagine you and the brave prediction is going to be that I was one of the people saying somebody ought to run.
Well, I was saying Biden should step down and have a stronger candidate. That debate's overdone. He's running. He's the nominee. Absolutely. So now we're seeing. But the point is, and there's nothing you can do about it, is, you know, the scary thing for those who support him is no one quite knows what shape he's going to be in a year from now. Because, you know, you don't age in a sort of linear way. It becomes more. Yeah. And he's in the toughest job on the planet. In a tough time, by the way, right now.
It's extra tough. He deserves combat pay. Your point is exactly right. You don't age in a linear way, just like there's a little potential non-linearity to Trump's problems. You know, you could...
People say, you know, how'd you go bankrupt slowly and then really fast? So that's still possible for Trump and it's possible health wise for Biden. But I, my perspective is, especially given the fact that the democratic experiment that America has been engaged in for a couple of centuries is under threat. I think those people who talk about politics and write about politics are
have to choose between which truths they want to tell. There are many things that are true at the same time. And David, you just mentioned two of them. He's doing the job, but the presentation isn't good. To me, the fact that he's doing the job has been largely obscured in the discussion of the presentation. What's more important? To me, doing the job is more important. No, you're right. We're totally...
obsessed because everything's postmodern now so it's about the bumper sticker glue not what's on the bumper sticker the other stuff is totally in the way and they're not that adroit at changing the perception about the record because what they want to do is grab you by the lapels and a lot of incumbent candidates are like listen up here's some statistics knucklehead you better learn them and then you're for me and they're they're gonna have to phrase david uses a lot meet people where they're at okay let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor and we'll be right back
I'll give you my scary scenario because I organize my political views on how do you keep Trump out of the Oval. And if we can't hedge it with a new Republican nominee,
The Israelis are in a really tough situation, and this thing is going to be on the cover of Escalation Spiral magazine. Yes. To go to Hamas city and kill the tarantula of evil, which is in tunnels there, the Hamas guys are more than happy to be throwing kids into the street during airstrikes to get hit and then call the cameras over.
That could spiral the West Bank, where the Palestinian Authority has a loose handle on things. They had lost political control, essentially, in a civil war against Hamas in Gaza. And you've got Hezbollah waiting for the opportunistic moment. And we've got two carrier groups there, which means if the Israelis are overwhelmed on three sides, Biden will, in my view correctly, be highly likely, I think, to commit American airpower.
then we are really in it. And there is no choice but victory, but it will be a really tough one. And that'll boil things between now and the election. Yes. Look, you know, I was asked this morning on CNN about this and what I would advise him. And I think he's right to go because he is in this, you know, he's providing leadership here and that's an important thing.
But if he's going to be the co-author of this story...
He'd better do everything he can to try and determine how the story unfolds. And that, you know, with regard to humanitarian aid, with regard to the hostages, you know, and it's very hard to control those things. But, you know, more and more, we're going to own the story along with the Israelis. And so, as you point out, Mike, how it comes out is going to be
on his account, but in this case, better to be a man of action trying to drive events than to be a passive player. But just remember the things that we're talking about almost in passing, and many people in politics do this, on the crisis in the Middle East. He appears to be, by most accounts, handling it effectively.
The effort to lead an alliance of free nations to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression. He's doing that effectively. Look at the economic recovery in the United States compared to the post-COVID recovery in other major industrial democracies around the world. Ours is better.
Unemployment's low, inflation's coming down. Just stop for a second. Just stop for a second. Because if you're going to lecture on how people in politics view things, let me just say, you're speaking about all of this like people in Washington do.
Which is like the average person is not sitting at the kitchen table saying, man, he's sure handling the foreign stuff really well. And boy, those economic statistics are great. They're saying...
I'm pissed because I'm paying more for groceries. I'm paying more for gas. I don't like interest rates being... I mean, the things that touch people's lives are irritating them. You've got the border stuff, which is... I mean, it is not right to say if people just realize what a great job he's doing, he's going to be fine because...
There are counterfactuals that touch their lives that may not be his fault. And you're quite right. The inflation numbers are worse in other places than they are here. These are certain issues are global. Some of it is the backwash from the, uh,
from the pandemic. But, you know, I think that he's got to get in his campaign and Democrats got to get closer to the ground. I think reporters have to get closer to the ground and really understand how Americans are looking at this election and how they're looking at this. Let's just throw the prism of their own experience. That's fair enough. But I'm describing a different way of getting closer to the ground. And
Look, it is a sour time in the country. It's a difficult time to be president. You went through that during the Obama presidency. I did. When he, you know, there was no good deed unpunished for Obama for a while, and he came back and had a successful re-election campaign. I'm not lecturing anybody. All I'm saying is, why is it that people think he's doing a poor job?
What are they hearing from people who are talking about the job that he's doing? I don't even know if it would make a difference if people... I don't know how much press coverage actually makes a difference. You guys have a better feel for that than I do as political practitioners. But all I'm saying is, if I'm in the press covering politics and government,
I have to choose which truths I'm going to talk about, which are most important. And to me, it is more important to evaluate the job that a politician is doing than to
than to repeat things that everybody can see and feel already that, you know, an 80-year-old guy is old. I mean, that's... Yes, he is, and he's vulnerable, too. Yeah, we're saying different things, though. I'm saying...
that I'm not saying absolutely when Biden does a good job, you know, people should say it. And I do think that where you get your news influences you because he gets no credit on through, you know, on Fox and some places where a lot of people fundamentally get their
their news. But, uh, it's all, what I'm saying is though, if you want to understand what's going on, why the American electorate is, so it, this isn't just a function of where they get their news. It's also a function of what they see in their lives. I'm, I'm sitting in the city of Chicago, uh, and, uh, you know, we're, we're grappling with these, this, this, uh,
uh, with a migrant issue, which is getting more severe by the day because they're sending 25 buses from Texas every day, uh, up here. Um, that's, that's, that's real. That's a concern. And, uh,
The good news is 25 buses in Chicago is the equivalent of 100 buses worth of brand new voters. But anyway. All right. Okay. You got it in, Murphy. I haven't done one in a while. We're late in the hour and you hadn't gotten it in. Just to press you about that for one second, David, though, I think it's possible to separately evaluate the material conditions in people's lives.
From the mood of the country and why the mood of the country is the way it is, are the material circumstances of people's lives at this moment with the unemployment at four below four percent and comparatively strong economic growth? Are they that much worse than they were before?
10, 20, 30 years ago. I'm not sure that that's true. I think there may be other things influence the mood of the country. You're both right. The problem is it's a facts versus feelings argument. The worst thing that can happen to a president in domestic politics is inflation because people are hypersensitive to prices going up. They're not sensitive to wages going up and they get pissed and one person's in charge. And then when the person in charge is seen or perceived as
as being a bit old and feeble and not on top of it. I mean, the most dangerous number for Biden, and again, we're David and I are from the perception is reality business, which is why we drink, um, is who's better on the economy, Trump, who you hate or Biden, who you don't like. And Trump beats Biden in double digits. That's poison. So they've got the facts, but you know, it's the old beat to death lawyer joke. When, when you got the facts, argue the facts, when you don't
argue the law and if you have neither pound the table. So it's time for Biden to pound the table and move the debate because he's losing the economic debate now. And that's a fundamental political threat. I do think this war is tricky for them because, again, it's hard to control the outcome.
In the short term, we wind up flexing muscle. It's always good for an American president. But there's, you know, I don't know. I doubt even the brilliant tacticians of the IDF or the best people we have have really figured out what do you do with two million people in the third densest place on earth in population? How do you get to an underground terror enemy that loves casualties of its own people in the modern media era? That is...
tough one and it's going to go on and the television is devastating to everybody involved. But to your point, Mike, affecting feelings is what talented political strategists like you guys do. My job is different. I mean, David Strauss, because he was a reporter before and he's committing journalism now. But
But my job is to describe the facts and not just to describe the facts, but describe the facts that I think are most important. Yeah, I completely agree with that. The issue is trying to, you know, why did, you know, you all, you and I both were sort of trained in the boys on the bus era.
of getting out and talking to people. The fact is people are looking inward. There's a sense of support for Israel. There's a sense of support for Ukraine, although diminishing among Republicans. But there is, and I think this is a hangover from the Iraq years, but a sense of why are we spending all this money over there? We've got all these issues over here. And
I just think it's important to understand how people are experiencing and feeling about things. And it's not just because of what they're being told, it's because of what they see. You're right that we're in that, you know, I've been in that other business as well. And what you have to do is try and figure out how to make an economic argument in terms that touch people's lives, you know. And they're starting to do it. They're running ads on their fight to get pharmaceutical prices down and
What you're not going to win is an argument that, you know, actually, we've done a great job on the economy. Right, right. But every incumbent wants to run that way. The other problem they've got, which is unique to our modern era, is people receive these facts through tribal filters now.
And and so what the a lot of the news business and I mean business because, you know, we I have not worked as a reporter ever, thank God, but I've been an opinion journalist, which is great because all that means is bloviate sometimes in informed ways, sometimes not.
Occasionally in a deceptive way, but anyway. Well, whenever I can. They're in a bell chamber, though, of being told they're right by their tribe. Everything is fine. We're right. They're evil. Therefore, we can do anything to them.
And that's proven to be a very good business. Take a look at cable news revenue over the last 15 years. Yes, of course. It just is, you know, conflict sells. It's the second cave painting, Bear Chases Man. And the filters have a more powerful effect on the feeling than they ever have. Yes, exactly. Yeah, that's true, too. And people love negative news. They believe it. People are very cynical. Oh, they're all corrupt. Oh, they're all this. They're all that. They're all bums. They're all blah, blah, blah.
So you combine all that, and Biden is in that tribal mishmash, which is why a crazy man is at least theoretically competitive with him in a general election. And he is on the wrong side of perception of traditionally the most important issue. And now he's riding appropriately for American national interest, but a very big, dangerous bucking bronco he does not control. But of course, the good news for Biden is that he's going to—
But if Trump is indeed the nominee, the election is probably going to be more about Trump than it is about Biden. That is the bet. I remember David saying in 2011 when Obama had poor ratings, you know, we've got to make it a choice, not a referendum. Obviously, every incumbent does that. And Biden is going to have that opportunity with a better target than you guys even had in 2012. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors.
There were a spate of battleground state polls in the last week. And in almost, I think in every single one of them, Biden was doing less well than he did four years ago. And there's an intriguing poll in Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer beating Trump by six points, Biden losing by seven. I don't think that's the case. I think the state is probably even.
right now. But this is going to be a battle, and it's going to be a battle between two unpopular candidates, and it's going to be a battle of mobilization. And it's harder in certain ways when you're the incumbent and people are unhappy to mobilize your base. Completely, completely. But luckily, it's got Kamala Harris to change the subject. You guys did it pretty well. Yes, we did. The circumstances were a little different. Mitt Romney, who I deeply respect-
and like was not a great candidate in 2012. He was a good target in 2012 because of the nature of the economic times. And Obama was a, he was a first class candidate who was able to communicate and take the case to the other side. You mentioned Kamala. Did you guys see those two pieces? One in the times magazine told me about them, but I'm Kamala doubt. So I haven't read them yet, but I'm sure they reflected those. Those were brutal pieces. Yeah.
I thought, I mean, I'm not saying they were, no, I don't think they were unfair, but I think they were really tough. And that's a concern because when you're 81 going to be 82 on inauguration day, the people are going to look at when we did, I've said this here before, when we did focus groups about Sarah Palin, people were, you know, really concerned because they all knew John McCain was 72 and I had a melanoma.
So they were like, whoa, this is serious. She could be president. So that continues to be an issue.
You know, and they need to figure out a way to somehow help Harris strengthen herself. Well, it'll be the Kerry Lake-Harris debate. That'll be the hinge, you know, of Trump's nominee. That'll be something. Let's assume, David, that Harris's problems relate to not the job that she's doing, but her persona, how she comes across.
If that's the case, what do you do about that? Send her to Guam. Well, I don't know what you can do about that. But in the Times interview, she walked out on the interview with Astead Herndon, the writer, and then refused to do a second interview that was scheduled. Probably I wouldn't do that. I wouldn't do that. Yeah, you'd think. So I think the first step is sort of recognition of
about, like, maybe it's me. Maybe there are things I need to do. Maybe I, you know. And the second is that, I mean, I've said for, it may be too late now, but I've said for years, they should be giving her stuff that is not in her comfort zone, but also gives her a chance to be successful on other things. Like, for example, Biden ran the Rescue Act for the Obama administration.
She could have been honchoing the infrastructure, the implementation of the infrastructure bill, having Mitchell Andrew and others report to her. You know, I mean, it just it there's a lot of things that could have been done. Yeah, I think it's unfixable at this point. A year ago, I was saying the same stuff. Give her give her fight. She can win. But now she's just a billboard for, you know, you were worried about Biden's age. Worry some more.
Hey, we should listen to some of our listeners. Listener mail.
Hey, David, the listeners have apparently formed a jingle singing group. I had no idea. Isn't that great? Yeah, I love that. They're right outside the window. Can you see them there? Yeah, very well done. They're great on caroling, too. We'll have to use them at holiday time. Next week, I want to hear a little more ukulele in there. If you have a question for the Hacks, all you got to do is email us. If you're old school like we are, just email us at hacksontap at gmail.com. But also...
We have a new thing we've been trying because we've decided to enter the 20th century reluctantly. You can call our special question line located in Chicago. So don't give me your voting address at 773-389-4471. There you go. Is that easy to remember or what? I didn't pick it. We'll try one more time. 773. What the hell kind of area code, by the way, is 773?
773-389-4471. Just remember, I'm 44 and Axelrod is 71. When you get the line there, all you got to do is record your question. But there are two rules. One, leave your name and
And second, don't go longer than 22 seconds. We're the bloviators around here. And until you you're in the union, you don't get to go on forever and ever, but we look forward to hearing from you either by Gmail or at our fabulous number, seven, seven, three, three, eight, nine, four, four, seven. What? So you've thrown away your fax machine. Oh no, we use telex here. We're not, you know, we think that fax thing could be a fad. So we're, we're still watching it. I just want to send out just in a personal note on behalf of David and I, we have a great friend to the show. Uh,
A regular listener who had a bad fall not long ago and has been facing some tough health stuff. Sean Daniel, who's a buddy of ours out in Hollywood in California and a great friend, a great fan and a patriot. And he's doing great, but has a long path. So, Sean, we're thinking about you. I was lucky to see him. Amen. With our friend Adam Nagourney and others a few days ago. And we've never had a stronger fan and supporter of the show. So we're thinking of you, Sean.
Okay, let's go to some of these questions. I think we'll start with a voicemail one, right? Do we have any that are non-abusive and don't complain about Axelrod? You didn't phone in this week, so we're clear on that one. All right, our first question will go for our guest, the esteemed Mr. John Harwood.
This is from Leon. Hi, this is Leon from Sheboygan. For a while now, all three of you have stated that with nine months to a convention and 14 months to Election Day, it's impossibly late for a serious challenger to buy, to step into the ring. But what are the impediments?
I point out that LBJ dropped out just four months before the convention. I ask because every single Democrat I know would in a primary vote for a legitimate alternative, say Newsom, over Biden right now. Thanks.
Well, John, and by the way, I think Leon is an old friend of Gavin Newsom's there, putting him in the race. And I'm sure Gavin would be happy to be in the race. What do you think? What are the structural problems with announcing Murphy for president in January or February? Well, I can think of several myself, but go ahead, John. Well, it's a completely different world where in 1968,
Insiders had a much bigger ability to move the process. There were very few primaries. It was not it was not it was it was more of a closed process than it was now. And so I don't think you can really compare it. So the difficulty of somebody coming in and knocking off an incumbent president. I mean, remember, McCarthy didn't beat Johnson in office.
New Hampshire. He just ran a strong race. Yeah. Just to amplify that point, in 1968, the bosses actually did have a say in that convention. By 72, the party had passed these new rules that
And it became a much more democratic process, and primaries had more influence. There is no kind of array of party bosses who can march over to the White House and say, Mr. President, it's not there for you. You're going to go. Again, this ship has sailed. This ship has sailed. It's because of filing deadlines and all kinds of other reasons that John just mentioned. Leon Mugabe.
move on. Yeah. Back then, it was a lot of a looser system where there were delegates driven by party elites and primaries were only a way to say, well, let's see, you know, how that kid does. We have a primary somewhere and somebody will get a little buzz going forward. It's not like now where it's actually a marketplace with voting and
And the actual rank and file grassroots primary voters have a lot more power, which is not necessarily a good thing, particularly in Republican Party, where I would like to go back to the smoke filled room and rational decision making. A little too much democracy is broken out. David. John. No, we're going to listen to a message from a voicemail from John.
This is John from Minnesota. Why don't the Democrats and the Biden campaign emphasize health care more? They've done a lot. The other side has nothing. And it's been a very important issue the last few cycles. Thanks. Love the show.
Oh, thank you, John. By the way, you should start saying you're John from Hawaii, just because the Minnesota accent would then have people say, God, that guy sounds like he's from Minnesota. Figure it out. A state I love because Doug and Donna Daniel, my in-laws, live there. But go ahead. Figure this one out, Axe.
John, I agree with you completely. Look, I think one of the big cost issues that people deal with is our healthcare costs and pharmaceutical costs. And again, I applaud the Biden campaign. I think it's strategically smart for them to start advertising as they are on the issue of their successful battle to begin lowering pharmaceutical costs on things like insulin. And now they've named 10 other things.
uh, widely used prescription drugs, uh, where the costs are going to be lowered. They've introduced negotiations with Medicare, which will reduce costs for everyone. And I think they need to look for other, uh, issues, not just around healthcare, but they've done more to strengthen the affordable care act. That's helpful, but in other areas as well, uh,
where they've taken on battles against organized interests and won concessions and where Trump and the Republicans were on the other side. I mean, I think that's the framework for a, a, a,
winning campaign or at least to begin moving votes in the right direction and mobilizing people. Again, I think this next election is going to be about mobilization as much as persuasion. And for Biden, one of the missions is going to have to be to energize his base. And these battles are something that will give his base something to hang on to and that will energize them.
But my guess is that John is going to see a lot of political advertising, which is the thing campaigns can control that he likes that are on health care, that are on the cost of insulin and all the things that David just mentioned. And I'll see him because he's also in Minnesota, where which has become a somewhat competitive state. So I don't think you can just leave it, leave it alone. How about Scott?
Why don't you ask me, Scott? Murphy, could you please share your vast political knowledge with us? Oh, we don't have time for that, the whole vast thing. And discuss how hard or easy it is to actually appear on the ballot for candidates like Robert Kennedy, Cornel West, and the Green Party libertarians, etc. Is there any real effect from them, or is it just blather and nonsense for the punditry?
Hey, why did I get the blather and nonsense for the punditry question, David? It's interesting, isn't it? Scott, actually a pretty good question. So these independent candidates can have impact. None of them are going to win. But in what we call a wrong track election, which is political consultant talk for a lot of grumpy, unhappy voters.
It gives people a place to go. Let's say, oh, you can't stand Joe Biden, but you hate Donald Trump. You're a young voter. The data shows that Biden's got some challenges there and you want to kind of do a protest. Well, you can go vote for Robert Kennedy or Cornel West or the Green Party.
effectively wasting your vote. Biden needs a lot of another political consultant term, the clothespin vote, people who hold their nose and vote for him because they don't like him, but they hate Trump more. This is a pressure valve for groups to voters like that to escape, which is bad for Biden. Now, as far as getting on the ballot, it varies state by state. Some are pretty easy. You get some signatures, you write a check. Others have a very cumbersome, tricky process involving more signatures and tough deadlines.
So it's very hard to get on all 50 states, but you don't need to. If you're in some close states and you provide one, two, three percent of the vote to kind of leak out of the big two-way contest into a disgruntled, essentially meaningless place, you can have an effect. Or if you excite voters and, damn it, I'm going to get out there and vote because I hate science and I, too, am crazy for Robert Kennedy. What? He's not on the ballot. Well, then I won't vote for anybody.
So they are, for an incumbent in trouble, even in small voter numbers, they are a problem. All right, we're going to finish up with our... We've been a little negligent, so we're bringing it back, and we got a real big one coming down the road. The Hacks on Tap Book Club. Go to our website, hacksontap.com bookclub. How about that? The same person thought up the phone number nobody can remember. And check out some of the books we dig that you can get right there. So
Books. Who's got a book? I just did an event at the Chicago Humanities Festival that will be an Axe Files podcast on Thursday with Walter Isaacson about his Elon Musk book. And, you know, I read it because I was going to do the event with Walter. I found the book really, really riveting. You know, Musk is such an interesting kind of...
crazy, brilliant, and now quite influential character. And Walter did a wonderful job of bringing that
uh to life in a way in many ways that i i didn't quite understand before so i highly recommend it it's a it's a lot it's a lengthy book it's hard to pick up and then it's it's very hard to put down and i recommend it john how about you any any book you've read what have you been reading lately yeah
I am about halfway through a book that I find very compelling. It's by Robert P. Jones, who runs something called the Public Religion Research Institute in Washington, who has had a series of books that locate the intense conflict of our politics at the moment in the anxiety, fear of eclipse, of losing their country by a certain group of conservative white Christians who see
The country becoming a majority, minority country, a party of people of many different faiths or no faith. And that that is a lot of the resistance that you see. One of the reasons why you saw on January 6th a lot of Christian iconography at the Capitol among people who were storming the Capitol was
And he's got a book that's now out in that series called The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy. And he deals with the New York Times did a thing a couple of years ago called the 1619 Project, which talked about the real birth of America being when African-Americans were brought to this country and became slaves. And that was the kind of original sin of the United States. Robert goes back further and talks about treatment of
Native Americans and the presumption that existed from the beginning that white Europeans were entitled to possess the country. And this is something I actually asked Biden about in that interview. And he said, look, we are.
Not going to be a white European majority country, but we have to make people reassured that that means it's not going to change what the country is. That's a huge challenge for Joe Biden. Name of the book again? The Hidden Roots of White Supremacy.
All right. And Murphy, you have one? Well, look at these weighty tomes you guys are doing. I had a fun summer escapism, and there's a fan club to these. There's even a cookbook connected to it. The Bruno Chief of Police novels. They're mystery novels set in a small town in France. They're all about food in the region by a former journalist named Martin Walker. They're a lot of fun. They're a good summer read. I got to do three of them this summer. But because
Because I know if I bump into you in Chicago, you're going to throw that enormous, weighty Elon Musk book at me. I'm waiting for the ice show myself. I get enough Elon. There's a good, somewhat revisionist and provocative. He's going to take you to Manny's for corned beef. Yeah, man. Yeah, finally finish me off. But I've been to Manny's for corned beef. I'll go in a minute. I thought about Manny's. Actually, I was going to O'Hare the other day.
So, the weightier tome, which is a fascinating history, a bit revisionist, I'm in the middle of it, is a
a writer named Sean McKeegan, and his book is Stalin's War. Takes a look at World War II from kind of the Russian point of view and points out the fact that for all our romancing of the amazing sacrifice made by the Western powers, the biggest battles were on the Eastern Front. A little too soft on Stalin. I'm not finished with it yet, but it's very well researched and it's very interesting.
and is a little more revisionist, but interesting perspective on the war and on the Western leaders. So for you history nuts, particularly in the Second World War, Stalin's War by Sean McKeegan. Wow. That was the most expansive book club we've ever had. Yeah, we're going all classy. And I think the great Adam McGurney, who recently has a
The official history of the New York Times is going to be joining. We're going to have it. We're going to get my copy. We're going to pictures. I told him it needed more car chases, but I'm looking forward to read it. We're going to have Adam on soon to talk about that. He's back on the political beat now soon, too. So it will be great to have Johnny. Where do we find you, though? Let's plug your social media or whatever, because you're a fixture. The American political journalism scene. People want to keep up with you. Where do we.
where do we hunt and find you now on the interweb well you can find me uh on x at john j harwood okay uh you can find my interview with biden on pro publica and more to come there and you can find me on my podcast for the duke university polis center for politics called bedeviled a podcast about american democracy i can tell you about being bedeviled listen you
you know, to do this every hour. Thank you, pal. All right. Good to see you, John. Enjoyed it. Thank you. Thank you.