Sore Bruiser (with Jen Psaki and Scott Jennings)
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Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. In all likelihood, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee when our party convention meets in July. I congratulate him and wish him well. I wish anyone well who would be America's president. Our country is too precious to let our differences divide us.

I have always been a conservative Republican and always supported the Republican nominee. But on this question, as she did on so many others, Margaret Thatcher provided some good advice when she said, quote, never just follow the crowd. Always make up your own mind. It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him. And I hope he does that. Well, uh,

I must say Jen Psaki, Scott Jennings, guest hacks while Mike Murphy is hiding in Mexico and I think looking for a potential refuge in case this election goes south. And Robert Gibbs is in Europe.

You would think that like in a normal campaign, someone makes a speech like that and the other candidate who's won a resounding victory would offer some conciliatory language. But alas, this is not a normal campaign. He is not a normal candidate. And, uh,

I don't have the language in front of me, but he basically pissed all over Haley. He said she got trounced yesterday and he'd be just as happy if she stayed in the rest of the way and so on. So I'm not sure that he...

Not sure that he got the message there, Jennings. Yeah, I think that there's very little, frankly, to gain out of the Haley coalition for Trump. I think we talked a little bit about this last night on CNN together. You look at the polling from the weekend and you look at the exit polling we conducted yesterday.

Many, many, many people who voted for Nikki Haley were already Trump, never Trump types, Democrats, independents, people who supported Biden before. And she became a vessel for that group. But I don't think they're interested in being courted. And so if you're Trump and you're you know, and there's a lot of punditry today about about courting about courting her group, like how how are you going to court people that already hate you?

Well, but he needs to court them. I mean, he can't win with the number of votes he got in 2020. He needs to expand his coalition, right, from the base. So even if it's unpleasant, and I'm not saying, I think one place where we may agree here, Scott, is I'm not sure Nikki Haley or Asa Hutchinson or Chris Christie, I'm not sure there's like a magic wand they're going to wave with their endorsement eventually that's going to massively change

you know, shift people on their own. There are things Trump, though, needs to do in order to expand his own coalition, don't you think? I think he is expanding it. I think he's expanding it out of Joe Biden's seed corn. I mean, if you look at the New York Times this weekend. I love when you talk that when you use that like seed corn. I really appreciate it. I like when he goes rural. I'm from New York City, dude. I don't even know what that is. He's I know I'm Googling.

Yeah, he's digging into Hispanics, winning Hispanics, digging into African-Americans. This this. So so so, Jen, to answer your your question of strategy, does he have to court them? No, he needs to replace them. And I think that's what they think they're doing is I'm going to replace them.

These college educated people who hate me and like Nikki Haley, I'm going to replace them with working class voters who, thanks to Democrats, have left them behind. I think that's the algebra theory. I am certainly not going to sit here and tell you those polls were good for Joe Biden. Don't worry.

But what what I do think is is maybe not as celebratory for the Trump team, as maybe some may think, is that was all a reflection of the 2020 electorate. Right. Which we don't know to be the 2024 electorate. And in fact, it probably won't be because electorates change and shift. The 2022 electorate also had far more people who were.

outreached by Dobbs on the Democratic side, who will likely, if the Biden team does their job, turn out in 2024. So all I'm saying, yes, Biden has work to do, but Trump has work to do, too, unquestionably. Well, let me agree with everybody here, because I want to be unlike Trump. I want to be conciliatory and a good host and all of that stuff. But I you know, yes, Scott, I agree that Trump is

I mean, if I'm sitting over there in Biden headquarters, I'm alarmed by consistent polling, not just some polling, but consistent polling that shows Trump getting 20 to 25 percent of the African-American vote. That is a big concern. It is a big concern that Trump is running even or ahead among Hispanics who Joe Biden carried with 65 percent of the vote in 2016.

2020. That is all true. It is also true that Biden still may have some room to grow. His numbers have held and they could grow among these suburban voters who were Haley voters. But my bigger point at the beginning was, I mean, you know, you being the wonk, the wonky hack you are, you wanted to jump right into these numbers. My bigger point is like,

You won a big victory last night. Don't act like a jackass when your opponent concedes and is gracious in doing it. Yeah. Don't punch down. You're advising Donald Trump not to punch down?

I mean, after all these years, I mean, this is the master of punching down. One of the things that he, I think if you're in his camp, what you're trying to get him to do, and they clearly tried to get him to do it last night. They, they did try to get him doing an Iowa is, is like, don't be a sore winter.

Don't look like an asshole. Don't look like you're a jerk. And so, yeah, I think this is a battle actually internally for them. I think his team is pretty proficient. The question is, can you put a shock collar on the guy when he's reaching for his cell phone at 2 a.m. to work?

Or in a case like this, he I think that statement that he put out was actually before Haley's statement. And I think that he was.

I think that he was anticipating her to be more challenging than she turned out to be. But still, you know, you just, you know, you're winning 92% of the delegates. You know, you got a little room to, but my point, and we should talk about this this morning, Scott on TV. It's not just about reaching out to voters. This guy's desperate for money. He wants some of her daughters to come back on board. So,

I don't think this was a strategy for that. But, you know, I mean, Trump is Trump. And speaking of Trump, Jen, what was your sense of his speech last night? First of all, I feel like he needed a Coke or something. I mean, he needed a little caffeine boost or something there, which made...

May not sound important, but I mean, Joe Biden also needs to have a Coke before the State of the Union because they both need to convince people in different ways that they're up for the job. I think the thing about Trump's speech last night is this is probably the biggest audience he's going to have. I mean, until...

maybe the convention i mean just because networks took it live it was a broad audience of people or the courthouse steps well that's true but i mean in terms of like delivering a message that could appeal to people beyond your base right so they made a calculation clearly about how they were going to use that time i mean i couldn't tell if he was reading off a teleprompter it seemed like he might it seemed like he was well i don't think so no i mean he seemed to be

OK, if they were if he was reading off a teleprompter, I think the teleprompter guy was playing a joke. Well, because right. The way that he used the speech just didn't feel like it was thinking about it in a strategic way, as if there's going to be millions of people tuning in. The networks are covering this live. I'm now moving to the next stage where I need to appeal beyond my base.

So I don't think it was a particularly good strategic use of his of his time. It was different than we had seen after the other wins because he had gone on stages with groups of people. He had spent huge amounts of time in the other speeches, you know, acknowledging folks and getting pretty local on those. I think they told it struck me that they told him to go out and give a national speech.

Don't do all the local color. Don't thank your local county. Go out and talk about the big national issues. And he largely did that, but it wasn't the same jokey, you know, sort of energy that he had brought to some of these others. It was a different vibe around it. I totally agree with that. Yeah. But listen, I actually think, you know, in its disjointed way, it was his message, which is, you know,

America today is a dystopia. We're being invaded by marauding immigrants. We're being done in by urban crime. We're being crushed by inflation. Biden is incompetent and asleep, and we've got to come back and save America.

uh, the country. I mean, that's essentially his message. His message is, you know, the, the world's out of control and, uh, you're under threat and, and, and Biden is not in command and I'm the strong man and I'm going to come back. One of my favorites. So I just have to, I got a bunch of clips. I'm not going to run them all because it is all, it was also his usual litany of, uh,

like made up shit. Yes, exactly. And, but, but this one, I just love this particular one. A lot of experts have said the stock market's the only thing that's doing well and that's doing well because our poll numbers are so much higher than Joe Biden's. Yeah.

Not how the stock market works. I mean, the starting point. I mean, I think it must kill him, Jennings, that, you know, he, oh, you remember how much he used to like to boast at when the market hit new record. You know, this is, this is Trump. This is Trump. And now Biden, the stock market has broken four new records under Biden and Trump couldn't allow him to have credit for that. The converse is also true. I remember Joe Biden saying,

crapping on Donald Trump or bragging about the stock market saying, well, you know, the stock market only helps the rich people. It doesn't help the regular people. And now that the stock market is doing well, all of a sudden that's a great barometer of Joe Biden's success. I don't know how much Biden has. I don't think he has bragged about the stock market. I think stock market is a lot more important to Trump than to Biden. So now the race is on you guys. And the question, I mean, a lot of people didn't want this race.

Many people have concerns in both parties about their candidates, maybe more in the Democratic Party than the Republican Party, or at least that they're willing to articulate. But this is where we are. And I actually thought that Elizabeth Warren did an interview on a network, Jen, that you now refer to as Brand X, but we lovingly call CNN.

I love CNN. I have no hate for CNN. But you used to grace those corridors. I did. Next to you guys. Yes. But Elizabeth Warren was on last night and she did. And I thought her formulation when she was sort of asked about, you know, what the race was really, really good. And I have a little bit of it that I wanted to play.

It's going to just be a comparison. We're already there. And we're going to have two people who both have been president and who will have records to run on. So Donald Trump, basically four years as president, did two things. One, he got an extremist Supreme Court that overturned Roe versus Wade. And two, he got the biggest tax cut in a zillion years, $2 trillion.

mostly sucked up by millionaires, billionaires, and giant corporations. Joe Biden, in three years, has managed...

to cut costs for working families. So now there's $35 insulin. Four million people have seen their student loan debt canceled. And he has also brought more fairness to the tax code. First time we have a 15% minimum corporate tax on these billionaire corporations and largest climate package in the history of the world. So I think

What they've done is going to be a big part, certainly not all of it, but a big part of how this election is going to shape up. What we're going to see is just Joe Biden being Joe Biden, because Joe Biden ultimately

has got a good heart. I know who Joe Biden fights for. Joe Biden gets out there every day and fights for people like the diabetic who has gone from paying $200 a month to $35 a month, for the person getting crushed by student loan debt, the public school teacher who just can't pay off those debts.

He's out there fighting for those people. He's fighting for people who wanted a job and now have got a job. That's Joe Biden. Trump, who does he fight for? Donald Trump, first and last. I'm sure you each have thoughts on this. Scott Jennings is a fan, obviously. I'm just kidding. You know, here's what was interesting to me. And then I want you guys to comment. I mean, I'm sure, Scott, I can anticipate your critique already. But what she didn't say was,

this is a battle for the soul of America. What she didn't say was, this is all about democracy. And I said last night, Scott, we are all privileged to be able to sit around and worry about our democracy because we're not worried about the cost of the groceries that we're putting on the table, but most Americans are. I mean, it's a privilege to be able to have that time. And I think it's an important, important thing

factor in this election, but she really kind of boiled it down to the more kind of basic concerns that most people are talking about around their kitchen tables. And she put it in the context of a contrast.

And I kind of think somewhere in there is where they need to be. One, I mean, Elizabeth Warren, it's a good thing she decided she wanted to be a tenured Harvard professor and run for Senate acts because you and I would be out of our businesses or would have been. I don't know. She's very, very good at communicating in a clear way.

articulate accessible way um which is a massive skill set that a lot of democrats could echo exactly what she said and that would serve the party well not shared by all harvard professors no not shared by all harvard professors that's more oklahoma than harvard that is i do think that and she articulates the economic choice better than anyone i've heard in the democratic party um

I do think that and this is hard and challenging and I don't and you probably need to write the speech on this to do it well. But it has to be both, in my view. I mean, the democracy argument, which shouldn't be the only one, is still one that animates.

a big swath of the public and a big swath of the democratic base, but a big swath of people who feel concerned about the fundamentals of the country being at risk. It can't be the only thing. I'm not suggesting that it is everybody is going to vote on

on the horrific events of January 6th. But I do think if there's a way to connect, and I would be interested to see how she would do this, kind of the fundamentals of our democracy being at risk and how that connects to...

our rights and the economy and who we're fighting for. That's what I think it needs to be. Well, you know, you say that it can't be all about that. But, you know, if you read that New Yorker piece that Evan Osnos wrote this week, interview with the president, interview with Mike Donilon, they have kind of this magical faith that this is all going to turn on that issue. And Mike said this all going to be about January 6th.

on the next election day. And I just...

I think that it is a piece and there is, and the real argument is one guy's focused on all these issues that impact on the quality of the future, that your kids are going to live, that your grandkids are going to live. And the other guy is completely self-consumed by his own past and by vengeance and is never going to get around to those things. But Jennings, you're sitting there and I know you got some stuff on your mind. Most people feel like at best,

they are running in place or simply treading water. I've had this conversation with a lot of folks back home and there's just a lot of people out there who feel like, you know, their job's not really in jeopardy. You know, they're not, they don't feel like anxiety over job loss or anything like that, but they feel like whatever it is they're doing in their life and in their own employment situation right now, it's just not enough. And there's no path for it to be enough. So at best, they're treading water. At worst, they're losing ground.

And they don't feel like any of the bills that have passed, any legislation, you know, the things that are rattled off have anything to do with that. And they're nostalgic for a period when they felt like they were getting ahead.

The Trump years, pre-pandemic, they feel like that their job was enough. Whatever their family was doing, it was enough not just to survive, but to get ahead. And the feeling of getting ahead versus barely keeping your head above water, I think, is pervasive. And I just am unpersuaded that the Warren argument that we just heard

is going to be enough because it's not been enough already. I mean, we're three plus years into this presidency and his numbers on the economy are getting better. They're getting worse. And I think it's because that feeling continues to be

And I don't know how you fix that. It's mostly related to inflation. People feel like they have to pay so much more now for virtually everything. And they've been paying for so many years that it strikes me it's going to be hard to unwind the gut feeling that during the Biden years, I fell behind because I had to pay. During the Trump years, I got ahead because I didn't. It's also hugely related to COVID and the chaos around COVID and people's

memory of the trump years and there's been a lot number of recent articles about this as being slightly revisionist slightly rosy now i think it's incumbent upon the biden team to make clear what was good and not good for working americans during that period of time it's clearly they have not crossed the barrier on that mostly not good i would suggest but yes yeah well yeah i mean what is not good you're right what is not good about that time um

And they clearly haven't crossed the barrier on that. But I think the thing is, is that rosy picture and memory isn't actually accurate. So that's what they have on their side. Okay, let's take a break right here for a word from our sponsor. And we'll be right back.

The thing that I didn't like about her formulation, what I like is the sort of populist kitchen table kinds of issues. What I didn't like was her. I don't think you want to compare records, even though I think Biden has a lot to his credit that he doesn't get credit for. But because of the mood that that Scott had.

talks about because we have this post-pandemic PTSD. And because, yes, inflation is cumulative. So even if inflation is coming down, you still feel the effects of several years of inflation. And that's very hard to unwind. But, you know, you remember, Jen, back in 2012 when we were running for reelection with Obama, there was a huge hangover from the financial crisis and people still in recovery.

And there wasn't a mood to be told, you know, about all our great achievements. Yeah. What we turned it into and he used the State of the Union speech in 2012 in part to do it. We turn it into a question of which side are you on and are you who is fighting for the kind of economy that's going to work for working people because it's been rigged against working people for a really long time.

I think Biden, if Biden talks about the project that he's working on, the vision of what America should be, and he fits those initiatives of his in that, rather than, you know, he has a tendency to want to ask for credit. He wants credit. He thinks he deserves credit. He's not going to get credit, you know, but what we want them to credit him with is a set of economic values that

that he's fighting for or that are reflected in what he's done, but also what he's going to do. And then compare that to what, what really does consume Trump, which is Trump.

And I think that's what works. One thing we probably all agree on is that you can't tell people how they feel about the economy. They don't want to hear you tell them how they can't job on people into feeling better. Right. So what she conveyed, which was very, yes, as you said, similar to what we articulated and what President Obama articulated about who you're fighting for. That was a central part of our argument.

back in 2012 against Romney. He was fighting for you and Romney was fighting for, well, we don't need to criticize Romney anymore. So I'm just going to stop at this point in time. I thought you guys love Romney. We do love Romney. You're going to have to change your mindset, Jen. I mean, back in the day, Scott, back in the day, tax cuts, Bain, social security, it feels like a total time back. But,

It wasn't our job, Scott, back in 2012 to extol Romney's virtues. That was your job. That was your job. Yeah, right. Exactly. You know, I do think that to go back to the original thing you posed here, Axe, I do think the State of the Union, and I actually have on my list here to read the 2012 one because I remember the economic hangover. Oh, look at that. Send it over through Vogue.

I will. Because I do think the economic hangover, well, it's an entirely different situation. There is like an interesting comparative in terms of how people are feeling for whatever reason. And I'd be interested in, I couldn't remember how exactly, although you just articulated how Obama did it. I'm hopeful. I mean, that is when Biden, President Biden is at his best, right? Yeah.

when he is talking about, and that is rooted in who he is. I mean, he was writing on about the minimum wage 50 years ago, and I'm not even exaggerating that. Um, and that's who he is and why he ran for office and why he is in office. Um, so if he can go back to those roots and not feel frustrated that people aren't writing like the IRA was the greatest thing, hopefully history will say that. But, um, you know, that that's where he will be at his strength in the speech. But I do think,

My bet is a big chunk of this is on the economy because this is the one of the only times where people actually have to take you and cover you and use you on their network. They've had a really hard time breaking through for a range of reasons on the economy, including Trump's 91 counts.

But this is, I think, a huge opportunity for them to do that on the economy. And it's a question, as we're all talking about here, whether they do that in a listicle way or they do that in a, I'm fighting for you on this way. Yes. I mean, you know, I've said this before here and elsewhere, Jen, but you know this because both you guys do. Both of you are...

shrewd and experienced communicators in politics. Campaigns for president are about issues, but they're ultimately about narratives.

And, you know, Trump has a very simple narrative. You know, the world's out of control. Biden's not in command. And he has three issues that underpin it, you know, immigration and crime and inflation. I'm not sure people know what the Democratic narrative is. And to the extent they do, I think they think it's about the soul of the country.

of America. And he, tomorrow night he needs to reset and give people a narrative that they can grab onto and that others can grab onto and that surrogates can grab onto. And by the way, you said they haven't been able to break through in the economy. Part of breaking through is persistence. And, you know, I know he's going to hit the road after the state of the union. You got to hope that they're going to amplify some of these economic themes, uh,

in a big way after that. I think the Democratic narrative for some of the working class voters that they, meaning Biden, has to recover has become caught up in culture issues. I think some of these voters believe that there's more focus on cultural engineering than there is on economic development.

frustrations. And so I agree that this speech is going to be mostly about the economy. But to the extent that for those voters who have, you know, for my whole career, you know, the Democratic Party has been the party of the working class, you know, the party of the common man. We're protecting the little guy against the big guy. And now the feeling, I think, is that for some of those common men and working class men and women and little guys, that the party is got these is focused on these

you know, cultural issues that in a language they don't even recognize. I mean, they don't speak this language. And that if that's all you care about or if that's what's motivating you, how could you possibly, how can we even have a conversation about what's going on in my own household? And so Biden, I think, has to resist the urge to chase all these niche cultural rabbit holes and laser focus on

And do it in a language that people actually understand, because I you know, I mean, the other day on the immigration, which you just brought up, and they're putting out press releases over there calling illegal immigrants newcomers. I mean, does that sound like something that would resonate with somebody who thinks immigration and the border is incorrect? Of course not.

And so even the language, there's even a language barrier with them right now. Yeah, I think that the Democratic Party does have a as the Democratic Party has become more of a college educated suburban party. There is what has seeped in is a little bit of elitism and this notion that, you know, when when they talk about working people, there's a lot of sort of undertone of we want to help you become more like us.

And and I think there's a sort of unspoken disdain there. But Joe Biden actually is not that. And what it seems, Jen, to me, I mean, I thought the last three months of the 2020 campaign, I think you were involved in that. I was not. Oh, were you with us?

Maybe you were with us. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I would actually, yeah, at some point I joined the transition, but yes. But I was not on the campaign. That's right. You were fighting with me on TV for the last three months of the campaign. You're right. I mean, I mean. What fun. The last three months, you know, there is this mythology that it was the soul of America argument that won the thing for Biden. I think, first of all, what one wanted partly was that people had

determined that Trump was a jerk and that and they wanted some decency and normalcy and so on, for sure. But the other thing is that Biden became much more Scranton Joe, you know, Main Street versus Wall Street, you know, much more about kitchen table issues. Very much. The convention was very much about his faith, his connection to the middle class, his

his connection to the military really rooted him in the middle of the country. And he needs to recapture that. Yeah, no question. I also don't think that was also before Trump tried to overturn the election and led an insurrection. So, I mean, there's a few things that have happened since then, but I do, but I do think that that is the core of who he is when he is at his best. Um,

You know, I think contrary to our former boss, Barack Obama, who we love and is amazing, Joe Biden is at his best when he is traveling around with a group of members and people. And he's like at an ice cream shop, not obviously talking about Israel. That's not ideal. Yes. Yes. That is when he's at his best. Those organic interactions. Obama's great at these, too. I was hoping the doctor would have surprised.

said lay off the ice cream to avoid those kinds of situations but no can do i guess but anyway i mean look those moments when he's interacting with voters it are the best moments they're not actually the speeches they're the moments where he's having those human interactions what i meant by breaking through is you know a lot of people say look we've all experienced the um

backseat driving communications strategies, strategists out there is he should go out in the country and talk about the economy. Yes. He's done a lot of that. Actually, it does not get covered. That's a problem they need to solve, but it doesn't. So they need to do it a different way is what I'm getting at or make it different or help it break through because the way they're doing it is probably too old school for the moment. But, you know, I think the state of the union is,

is kind of, as you said, Axe, is a launching point for that. It is a moment where people tune in, people who aren't tuning into politics tune in, members tune in, there's talking points that tread from it. And if that comes, that those, that set of points is,

describe who we're fighting for and contrast that with the other party. That's a good thing, right? That's a good outcome. So we'll see. I was looking, David, on the after last year's State of the Union. So the day before his speech last year and his speech got great reviews, was widely judged to have been a success. The back and forth of Republicans, his his job approval on the day before was forty two point six. By the end of March, his job approval was forty two.

And so I to me, what's the gain out of this is limited. But there is there is the possibility that it doesn't go well. I guess I've been looking at it the other way is not not is there ground to gain here, but he has to not mess up. I mean, he cannot have a blip here. He cannot. And right. And because the downside of this to me is more.

dramatic than the possible upside. Well, the performance of it is an important thing that probably people don't talk enough about. That's true for any president, but certainly true for President Joe Biden. This one is critical. Especially, yes. No, I talked and you've experienced it, Saki. I used to joke about Biden performance anxiety. He would perform and all you guys would be anxious.

But, you know, he needs to have a great performance tomorrow night, and that's a lot of pressure. So there's the message imperative. And, Scott, it's not just about boosting his numbers in the short run. It's about developing the foundation of a message that people, he and others, can carry forward for the rest of the campaign. What is this about? What is this about? And, you know, we'll see –

if they succeed in doing that. But he also has to do it well. And, you know, what happened last year, you'll remember, was that he engaged with the audience on Social Security and Medicare, and he won the exchange. And he looked like a guy who was in the moment. And, you know, you can't plan those kinds of things. But you didn't plan that, did you, Jen? Um,

Was I there for that? I was not there for that. Oh, you weren't there for that. I've been gone a long time. Would you send me your whole history so that I don't keep putting you in places that you don't pull off? Wait, was I involved in that? Sometimes it all runs together. I was not there for that. But as you know, and what's interesting about that moment is, as we all know,

You plan those moments, right? And you hope they go well, right? But you can't always anticipate exactly how it will play out. But you plan out those moments and you hope for there to be a few because that's what people will remember immediately, but certainly a year later. Yes. And in his case, it's, I think,

even more valuable because, you know, the whole meme that is being worked against him is that he is out of it and all of that. And so when he can pick up on an opportunity like that and command the room,

Yeah, that's a big deal for him. I wanted to ask you one other thing, you guys, about the yesterday. I mentioned this to you, Scott, when we were sitting together on the set. Maybe I said it on the air, but I do think that the sort of leitmotif of this whole thing from the Trump side is me strong, him weak. And there is a certain.

I mean, there is a kind of thing that comes from having started... I mean, here's a guy who is under four indictments, 91 counts, as you mentioned, Jen. Three years ago, he fled the Capitol in disgrace and...

And, you know, he just won, what, 15 of 16 races yesterday. He won 23 of 25 primaries. He looks like he's beating back these legal challenges for now. I think that's worrisome for the country. But it does contribute to this kind of sense of indomitability that plays for him. Oh, there's no question right now that he looks ascendant, that he has momentum,

that, you know, the sense that, you know, they try to they try really hard to get him. They just can't quite get him. And that's how smart he is. You know, you hear Republicans talk about that a lot. Now, will this hold? You know, he's going to go on trial in New York. I actually think if he gets convicted in New York, it's probably going to help him again because people think the New York case is ridiculous. If he ever gets convicted in the January 6th case, I think that was more problematic than

But it may not happen. They obviously know that, too, because they're doing all kinds of stuff and got a little assist from the Supreme Court in trying to delay that past the election. And they, I think, are pretty confident that they can delay it past the election. But I do think they understand that that one could be a crushing blow.

If it goes forward, the evidence and the verdict. Yeah, we'll see if they ever get there. But to your larger point about his strength and his momentum and

his being able to dispatch all these other Republicans and sort of outwit and outsmart, you know, among Republicans, there's a sense that everything is constantly aligned against Trump, not just the Democrats, you know, institutions, the media, you know, the people who control the conversation in this country. Maybe it's because he keeps telling them that. Right. Maybe it's because that's his core message. But the punchline is but the punchline is

We're outsmarting like it doesn't. All these forces are aligned against us. And look, we we are emerging victorious over it. And that's why ultimately Haley and DeSantis and the rest of them fell short, because when Republican voters got the idea that Trump could beat Biden and that he could defeat these institutional forces, the anticipation of that dopamine hit that would come from Trump.

coming out victorious in November is far beyond what you would get from a Haley or DeSantis or anyone else. The satisfaction, the vindication that would come from, you know, overcoming all of this. And I ultimately think that is that is what why he is so strong with Republicans right now, because they feel vindication is at hand and he's going to deliver it and no one can deliver it like him. That's the that's the emotion. I mean, a couple of things that I think are

are problematic for him, though, is one, I know that you're going to say, and you said this earlier, Scott, but first of all, the New York Times polls, again, not good for Biden. It is hard for me to square the 97 or 98 percent or whatever it was of Trump 2020 voters still being with him

when 35%, at least in our exit polls, of Republican primary voters said they wouldn't support him. Now, again, some of those people may be independents, some of them might be Democrats, but a lot of these were closed primaries. There's something a little weird going on there. I don't know what it is, but it still seems like he's got to bring some people over. The second piece is, and, you know, he can raise more money. He's going to be clearly the nominee. That will be a surge of money. He does have a money problem. He's behind on cash on hand.

He's using the money to pay his legal bills. You need money to run campaigns and he's way behind. And that also is impacting state parties, which I think, Scott, I mean, you've been around state parties. They're important, right? And they're in a bit of disarray in the Republican Party, including in states where it matters like Michigan. So that's not as obvious on the surface in terms of like,

This his argument, strength, weakness, et cetera. That isn't the argument that's fairly effective, but that's all operational running campaign stuff that that does matter. And on the other side, Joe Biden has to make up ground. The State of the Union's important. We all agree on that. He's got to have a good performance.

They've actually been working with the DNC, building up state parties, raising a ton of money. They're not going to have any money problems because progressives in the Democratic Party hate Trump so much that they're going to raise money. So those are operational, but I think they are actual real issues for Trump. OK, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back.

In some ways, these primaries have masked some larger problems for him. And yesterday may have been a high point for him in what now becomes a very tough slog for him. I will say, I think that Biden has a huge money advantage. Some of these state party organizations, like in Michigan,

You know, Gretchen Whitmer has a great organization. The Wisconsin Democratic Party is probably the best party organization in the country. So these are these are advantages. The campaign itself has been slow in getting out of the blocks. And so they're organizing late here. But I mean, I think these things will these things will wash out. But.

I do, you know, I mean, there is a persona that Trump is a reality show mentality and he sells a character. This so far has lent to its lent, you know, some strength to his character.

to his strength characterization. And we'll see what happens. And it plays off of what people think is Biden's Biden's worst week weakness. There are a couple of other campaigns yesterday that were interesting. Well, before actually, before we move on to the, these, those campaigns, there's something that has been little noted, but apparently the no labels parties meeting on Friday. Oh, really? I,

I didn't know that. Thanks for noting it for us. Yes, yes, yes. Well, they don't have any labels. They're hard to find.

Exactly. God, that was such a dad joke. We're here for it. Just like a group of people sitting in a coffee shop. They don't wear labels. I don't know. How are you going to know? If you got bad jokes, this is the podcast for you. I'm trying to do my best Mike Murphy impression by providing the worst jokes. Yes, that's good. I'll tell him that you were filling in on that score. Given the unpopularity of both candidates, I mean, Jennings and I have talked about this a lot. I mean, I've always been of the theory that these third parties are not Joe Biden's friends.

that Trump's floor is high, his ceiling is low, and the more you lower the threshold for victory, and Hillary Clinton experienced that in 2016 where the third parties took votes from them. Thank you, Jill Stein, for giving us Donald Trump. Who is back. She's back. She's back. She's the Green Party candidate again. Contributing to it, I think, is fair. Saki, what's your sense of all of that?

And what do they do about it? Well, I think it's a real, probably undercover concern at this point in time, just because there's just so many other things to talk about. I mean, no labels. It's a little bit of like, oh, that's weird. It came out. They set themselves up. They raised tons of money. They set massive expectations. It's like, who are they actually going to have on the ticket? I guess we'll see. And then we'll have a conversation about whether they actually matter.

But beyond that, I still think people like RFK Jr. Look, RFK Jr., you know, there's some who argue he's only going to hurt Trump. I don't know that that's true. I think in certain states he could hurt Biden very much. I mean, the Kennedy name in places like Georgia is yes, and in ranges, different populations is.

It's still very highly thought of. And I think if you think about lower and lower informed voters, people who aren't paying attention to every nook and cranny and everything we all say in cable news.

It's like Kennedy. I'm not sure about the other two. There's a Kennedy. That seems good. And others may say that there are the Jill Stans of the world and people, even if they take a small percentage of the vote, it's going to be small. As we all know, we're talking about a half a dozen states here probably. Right. So I do think it's a huge concern.

It should probably be talked about more. It could hurt both of them, but I don't think it's all a hurt on Trump at all. And some people argue that. I don't think it's all a hurt on Biden either, but I think it's a huge concern for Biden. Almost every poll, not exclusively, but I would say 90% of the polls that I see say

When you add third party candidates, Trump gains a point or two. Yeah. And, you know, we're talking about a marginal election. Yeah. So this is a big factor in how many how many how many votes decided Arizona? How many votes decided Georgia? I mean, eleven thousand forty to forty two thousand votes overall probably decided the election. I mean, are there 10 or 15000 people in any of these swing states that would choose a third door? The last name was Kennedy or.

You know, these no labels people find somebody who seems like somebody they heard of. It seems like they're under 70 and not headed for jail or a nursing home. Yeah, they would absolutely. I mean, are there are there progressives that would love to vote for, you know, some, you know, the farthest left person? Yes. So there's there's enough people to change the outcome of any of these swing states. If if these people actually get on the ballot, it sounds like RFK is going to make it on the ballot in some of these places. And I think I think it's a it's a huge deal.

Also, some of his biggest funders are Trump funders. I mean, we know this. This is public knowledge. This is they know that this could certainly help them. So that's that tells you kind of tells you something. The no labels thing. Before you get to no labels, there's also going to be, you know, I think so much of this campaign is going to be below the surface of.

in what a bunch of players, including malign players overseas, do on TikTok, on, you know, on other social media. And they'll just, you know, if they think they can push young people, for example, to

to a default position in this race and not Biden, they'll or to sit it out. They're going to be working these angles. Go ahead. You're going to talk about no labels. No, no, no. The thing, one of many things that drives me crazy about no labels is they have said they're not going to be a spoiler, yet they're on the ballot in like how many states like they can't even possibly win. So they are literally a spoiler. So this is just

I mean, there's lots of speculation about who they would have. And actually, maybe one of you knows. Now I'm just going to ask you both a question. If Nikki Haley would be eligible, I know she said she wouldn't, but there's the whole like sore loser rule, sore loser rule. Would she be able to be? I don't think you have you looked into this guy because I don't think the sore loser rule prevails anywhere.

in all that many states. Michigan has one. I also think that there's some question as whether it actually can, you know, whether it would stand. Yeah, it's like eight states that that could be problematic. But in a presidential race, you're not actually voting for president. You're voting for the

electors. And so there's some people who think you could go to court and say this doesn't really apply to this particular campaign. And so I don't know. It's never been tested, obviously, I guess. Or just come up with fake electors. Yeah, you could submit anybody you want. But it would be challenged. But I don't know if it would stand or not. But I think it was like eight states that was problematic.

She didn't sound today in her statement. I mean, she's very clear. She's a Republican and she has been known to change her mind from time to time. He has now and then. I have no doubt that they are that they are going after her. And I have no doubt that they're going after Chris Christie and they're they're looking for someone. They lost Hogan, Larry Hogan, who was a guy they had their eye on, who's now running for the Senate in Maryland. They are a.

campaign in a party in search of a standard bearer and we'll see what they come up with. It's something I think actually, you know, we're not paying it. There are certain things that are going to be determinative in this election that aren't on any normal election calendar or wouldn't have been. One is like the meeting, you know, to decide what they're going to do. Another was the Supreme Court decision on whether they were going to take that case on a

immunity, which they did, which will delay by several months the trial and perhaps push the January 6th trial off till after the election. And of course, if Trump wins into infinity, because it will never be held. So there are a lot of factors in this weird-ass campaign that

Weird ass is a good way of describing it. Thank you. Thank you. I gave a lot of thought to that. I know. Okay, then let's take a break right here and we'll be right back. Two or three quick things on the other races. Interesting race out in California. You know, Adam Schiff, Katie Porter. Barbara Lee. Barbara Lee.

Barbara Lee, yes, was in that race, three Democrats. And then Steve Garvey, and there were assorted other minor candidates, but Steve Garvey, the former Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman who's a Republican. The shift campaign, I mean, this was really a textbook kind of deal, and maybe learned from the past cycles. But they went after Garvey, Jennings.

in a really smart way and did comparatives. Schiff and Garvey and Garvey being, you know, too extreme and conservative for California. And the whole goal was to, they have a jungle primary there. So everybody runs in the same primary and the first two run off in the fall. I think if Adam Schiff had had Katie Porter as an opponent in the fall, that would have been a tough race for him because Trump has so vilified him

uh, among Republicans and some Republican leaning independents, uh, that it would have been a tough race for him. She, she would have gotten some of those votes and they knew that. Yeah, it was pretty, it was pretty wise for, for, for them to elevate. And now they've got the race they want and California is going to have another democratic Senator Garvey. He's interesting. God, boy, I tell you what, if you like baseball, that dude was a stud from 19, like 72 to 1985.

And, I mean, just amazing run in the major league. Chris being a stud, as you pointed out to me last night, was also his personal problem as well. Yes, exactly. It was a little bit too much. He was a little too much of a stud. A little too much studying.

Yes, exactly. But, Jen, it's kind of ironic that Trump swept California last night, all of its 160 delegates or whatever it was. And the guy he probably hates the most in the United States Congress is

is now on his way to the Senate and will be there to greet him if Trump navigates his way through these rocky shoals and gets back to the presidency. No doubt. And we'll have a bigger platform as one of 100 in some ways. No doubt. I also thought...

There were some interesting house race and I haven't seen it. There's a run. There's going to be a runoff, I believe, in Texas. Right. For the Gonzalez seat, which is interesting. And then in California, there's California 22, which is the Valdeo seat. Right. Which I haven't seen the outcome there or or if they've picked California.

one or two of the candidates. Yeah, there's several weeks of ballots to be counted. I didn't see, I haven't looked at that. Well, that's an interesting one because as we all know, I mean, the House is controlled by such a tiny margin and that is a top target by the Democrats and the DCCC, and we know how unpopular this can be, picked one of the Democrats and spent a lot of money on their behalf.

And there was a big question going into last night as to whether he would even be in the top two or whether it would be the two Republicans. So I don't I have not seen the latest reporting on

Whether they know, that will be an interesting one, though, to watch, because if the Democrat gets in, that could be a pickup. If not, that's a huge missed opportunity. Yeah. Colin Allred also won without a runoff in Texas, the nomination for the Senate. So he'll be taking on Ted Cruz. Tough in a presidential election year, but a really good candidate. Congressman from suburban Dallas, who is a moderate candidate.

and a former football star, which always helps in, uh, in Texas. So, but then there's this strange governor's race in, uh, in North Carolina. That guy, he's cuckoo. Yeah. Go ahead. Make the case for him. Uh, well, I just, I'm just saying he got more votes than Trump in 2020. He got about as many votes as Rory Cooper, the current governor, Mark Robinson is who you're referencing. He's the current lieutenant governor. And, uh, and, uh,

you know, the MAGA/Republican/Evangelical Christian grassroots love this guy. Absolutely love this guy. Now, who's a favorite there? I don't know. Josh Stein, the Attorney General, is a Democratic candidate. Interestingly, historic either way, a race between a Black guy and a Jew,

North Carolina. So one way or the other, it's going to be. But Stein is a much more conventional. Yes.

candidate. By conventional, you mean boring. I mean, this guy's major decisions each day are deciding what shade of khaki to wear on his pants. I mean, this is like the most boring person. Now, that might work in this race. You were wearing khakis this morning. You must admire that. Absolutely. Hey, put me down for boring. As a man once said, you know, I'm not anything if I'm not boring. But this is an interesting race because Robinson is, I mean, any given day could be a

I mean, dominating a news cycle like Stein seems like he's just going to float along. Well, he's dominating the news cycle, not to bury the lead here about Robinson. I mean, he's a Holocaust denier who has like attacked the victims of school shootings. He says Beyonce's satanic, which may or may. I don't know how that plays in North Carolina, but I mean, you could go on and on about.

rabidly anti-abortion. Anti-gay, anti-abortion. And that, it's an interesting test, right? I mean, Josh Stein, he may be wearing his khakis. There's not a hard red state. I mean, it's a reddish state, but it's also, you know, it's a state that Obama carried. And it's a state with larger, you know, growing number of college-educated students.

folks around those university towns. And I don't know. Well, I'll put you guys down for a maybe and we'll see where you are in the fall. It'll be fun. No, no. Here's what I'm saying. Here's what I'm saying. I don't know what we're maybe for. The lieutenant governor is the prototype of the kind of candidate who

who hurt Republicans in 2022. Yes, he's going to enrage Democrats in that state, which is a good thing for Biden. Yeah. Do you think North Carolina is on the map? I mean, do you really believe it's a swing target state for the presidential gym? Yes. All right. That's bold. That's a bold. Well, I predicted on TV last night that I thought Virginia was in play. So you're on North Carolina. I'm on Virginia. All right. Map expanders. All

All right. I'm going to bet against both you guys. I think we're at the end of the day. I don't think either of those are going to leave the column that they're in, but we shall see. Always good to have you guys. Great to be with you. Murphy and Gibbs are going to be pissed that we had all-star guests in their absence, but screw them. They're off having fun.

I mean, this is the best looking podcast you could have ever had. You get rid of those guys and you put Jen in the end. Exactly. We have to be average. Come on, you guys. Now I'm blushing over here listening to you guys talk. So anyway, it's great to see you. Look forward to hearing more from you in your respective.

Jennings, I'll be sitting right next to you for most of that. So, and Jen, I'll be watching you and I hope to get together again soon. Thanks, Dave. Thank you, David. Thank you.