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cover of episode The Ol' Razzle Dazzle (with John Anzalone)

The Ol' Razzle Dazzle (with John Anzalone)

2024/12/10
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Hacks On Tap

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People
D
David Axelrod
D
Donald Trump
批评CHIPS Act,倡导使用关税而非补贴来促进美国国内芯片制造。
J
John Anzalone
M
Mike Murphy
Topics
Donald Trump: 特朗普在采访中表达了对司法系统的批评,并暗示他可能会赦免参与1月6日事件的人,包括那些袭击警察的人。他认为司法系统对这些个人过于严厉。 David Axelrod: Axelrod 对特朗普考虑赦免1月6日事件参与者的想法表示强烈批评,认为这是不可接受的,并且会损害其在公众中的形象。他质疑这种行为是否会影响特朗普在未来大选中的支持率。 Mike Murphy: Murphy 分析了特朗普的竞选策略,认为其“原始尖叫”的风格虽然有效,但其不可预测性可能会在其总统任期内对其造成损害。他认为特朗普需要关注经济问题,并避免分散注意力的争议。 John Anzalone: Anzalone 认为,特朗普竞选团队没有在付费宣传中强调赦免1月6日事件参与者的议题。他认为民主党在利用特朗普的负面形象方面存在困难,并且特朗普的这一行为并没有对其造成太大的损害。他分析了公众对赦免的看法,并认为这可能会影响特朗普的经济信息传递。 John Anzalone: Anzalone 认为,民主党在2024年大选中失利,部分原因是未能有效地与拜登政府保持距离,以及未能解决通货膨胀等经济问题。他认为,民主党需要关注其在年轻选民群体中的支持率下降问题,并寻找能够与白人和拉丁裔工薪阶层选民产生共鸣的策略。他还强调了民主党在处理棘手社会问题上的谨慎态度,这可能会限制其在未来的选举中取得成功。 David Axelrod: Axelrod 认为,民主党在2024年大选中的失利,部分原因是未能充分承认竞选中的错误,以及未能有效地应对拜登政府的低支持率。他认为,民主党需要在未来选举中更有效地与拜登政府保持距离,并阐述更清晰的政治愿景。 Mike Murphy: Murphy 对民主党在2024年大选中的表现持批评态度,认为他们需要改变策略才能赢得更多选民的支持。他认为,民主党需要关注其在白人和拉丁裔工薪阶层中的支持率下降问题,并避免过度依赖身份政治。他认为,民主党需要在中期选举中取得成功,这将有助于他们在未来的总统选举中取得更好的成绩。

Deep Dive

Key Insights

Why did the issue of pardoning January 6th rioters not have more traction in the election?

The issue didn't resonate strongly because it wasn't elevated in paid media campaigns, and many voters had PTSD-like reactions to Trump, making it less salient. Additionally, Trump's staff tried to steer him away from such topics to focus on transactional issues.

What would happen if Trump actually pardoned January 6th rioters on his first day in office?

If Trump pardons the rioters, it would become a massive media story, with wall-to-wall coverage. About 60% of Americans oppose pardoning those involved in the insurrection, which could detract from his core economic message and harm his public image.

Why did Trump's undisciplined campaign style work in 2024?

Trump's primal scream politics resonated with an electorate frustrated by the 'wrong track' status of the country. His constant bomb-throwing, though undisciplined, aligned with the anger and desire to 'fire Biden' over issues like the price of eggs and other pain factors.

What are the potential dangers of Trump's cabinet picks, particularly Bobby Kennedy Jr. for HHS?

Bobby Kennedy Jr.'s anti-vax views could paralyze the HHS, potentially harming public health. His nomination is particularly dangerous in the context of a future pandemic, as his views could undermine vaccine confidence and public health efforts.

How did the Democratic Party perform in the 2024 election, and what does it mean for their future?

The Democrats lost the presidency but held their ground in the Senate and even gained a seat in the House. While they faced significant demographic challenges, particularly with working-class voters and Hispanics, the party's bench remains strong with potential candidates like Whitmer, Cooper, and Warnock.

What is the internal challenge the Democratic Party faces regarding its identity?

The party struggles with aligning its actual policy positions with the public perception, often shaped by media attention on progressive figures like AOC. This misalignment can alienate moderate voters and make it harder to appeal to a broad coalition.

What advice would you give to Kamala Harris to distance herself from Joe Biden during the campaign?

Harris could have emphasized her own biography and achievements, such as her role as a prosecutor and attorney general, to create distance from Biden. She needed to present herself as a distinct candidate with her own vision, rather than being tied to Biden's low approval ratings.

What is the significance of the Democratic Party's strong bench for future elections?

The Democratic bench includes talented moderates like Whitmer, Cooper, and Warnock, who can appeal to a broader electorate. This diversity of candidates positions the party well for future elections, especially if they can avoid the branding issues that plagued Harris.

Chapters
The hosts discuss public reaction to Trump’s statement regarding pardoning January 6th participants. They analyze the lack of significant public backlash and explore potential reasons, including the focus on economic issues and voter fatigue. The conversation touches upon the strategic implications of such a move for Trump's presidency.
  • Trump's statement about pardoning January 6th participants
  • Lack of significant public outrage
  • Focus on economic issues overshadowing other concerns
  • Strategic implications for Trump's presidency

Shownotes Transcript

This week, Murphy and Heilemann were joined by expert Hack and pollster to the stars, John Anzalone. The Hacks dissect Trump’s Meet the Press interview, defy political gravity to forecast Trump’s future appointments, and ponder the fate of bipartisanship in a second Trump era. Plus, the guys tackle campaign loyalty, the screaming January 6th jail birds, and the state of the Democratic bench.