The Shiniest Silver Medal
50:35 Share

Hey, pull up a chair. It's Hacks on Tap with David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs, and Mike Murphy. I can safely say, tonight Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race. Yay!

Okay, there you have it, Murphy and Gibbs. That was Nikki Haley. I thought she was running on the strength of being an accountant, but apparently not so good at the counting thing because she didn't finish second. She finished third. So apparently they didn't change her speech.

she had the second place speech ready to go and they just didn't have time to fix it. Trump had the best possible night he could have had. He hid expectations or even arguably a little better so he can historically say his first person to get the number he got in the caucus. On the other hand, people who win the caucus often don't win, but he crushed and Nikki was

who wanted and needed second place to off DeSantis politically and double down on her motion in New Hampshire, got third. And then they didn't know what to do. So they roll her out to do a three-new-paragraph version of the big second-place victory, two-ticket speech,

and kind of a clumsy pivot to attacking Trump. So, of course, my head exploded. On one hand, I'm going to have to listen to you guys for a minute and eat a crow burger on a pretzel bun, please. I was totally wrong about turnout, which is what sunk everything else due to the storm. I should have known better when I was driving last night from Des Moines

over to south of Cedar Rapids, Johnson County. And I will add that the caucus, precinct caucuses I was at, Trump lost both of them. I don't want to draw any direct connections, but I could only do what I could do in one county, Johnson.

I noticed you hovering around the tally table there. Yeah, yeah. Let's just say Flo has a new F-150. So anyway, they don't know what to do. I still think she has a shot at New Hampshire, but if she gets an isolated fluke victory there and can't roll the table, she's toast. So...

You know, I don't think it wiped her out, but boy, they don't know what to do is what I thought last night. Hopefully they're reconfigured today. So she's got an argument now that she's taking to New Hampshire. She she included it in a new ad in New Hampshire and she twinned it up. She twinned up Biden and Trump in her ad.

attack last night. But it's so it's so let's listen to that. The two most disliked politicians in America, Trump and Biden, both are consumed by chaos, negativity and grievances of the past. The better choice for a better America. Nikki Haley.

I have a different style and approach. I'll fix our economy, close our border, and strengthen the cause of freedom. We need a new generation of conservative leadership to get it done. I'm Nikki Haley, and I approve this message.

The weird thing about this is, I mean, what she's trying to say is you are you don't want either of these guys. We're sick of both of them. We want them to go away. And you got me. So go for me. And it's a play to independence. But she twins that she twins them up with Trump's qualities. Right. Because I don't think people think of Biden as vengeful and audacious.

All of that. She tried to ascribe Trump's qualities to Biden. And the whole thing was kind of awkward and kind of a process argument. Well, the challenge is, and Murphy hit this nail on the head, they don't know what to do. It's clumsy. And the truth is, this is just a manifestation of not knowing how to deal with or take on Trump from day one. DeSantis didn't know how to do it. He thought, you know what? I'll just try out. People pick me as a better Donald Trump.

They tried that for eight years ago in 2016 and it never worked. They didn't change your speech. The ad, I agree with you, it feels awkward and clumsy. And I just don't know whether you can turn from

essentially barely mentioning Trump to being full frontal on Trump. Yes, it's a very different electorate, right? Far less conservative, far less evangelical, far more independent, but she doesn't, she's, she's certainly not building on any real momentum. The Iowa polling showed it was no real Nikki Haley surge. Yes, she's finished stronger than she was two months ago, but this notion that there was this stampede in the last month for Nikki Haley, I,

I think she had about as bad a night as she could have had.

finishing third, having Trump not just win, but crush everybody. I love the irony that he won 98 counties and lost the 99th, apparently by one vote. By one vote. Yeah. Yeah. I was in that county. Yes. Yes. Old Floyd finally came through there and made the difference. Is that a ballot sticking out of your pocket there? I can't see. There's a piece of paper there that says ballot on it. I don't know what.

Let me just say that all that cajoling about Chicago, Murphy finally put it to some use. I picked up a few tricks. I've got to plug one thing. I'm wearing black today here in the morning, and you guys have been gentle. Thank you. Go to Substack, Mike Murphy 1. I did a two-part diary of attending a caucus and everything that happened. I think it's kind of entertaining. We thought the black was like a crow.

You know why I'm not busting Murphy's balls on this whole thing? Why? Because I've said for one whole, I've said for a year that he's as smart as anybody there is in politics. And I said for a year that he was speaking from his heart and not his head. And I can't bust a guy's balls who's got a big heart. And Murphy wants his, he wants the Republican Party to be the Republican Party again.

He knows it's not that Republican Party right now. It's Donald Trump's party. And you can see it running through all of these entrance poll results. I mean, he dominated virtually every demographic. And as I said on TV— Yeah, he was playing all four corners, which happened in 16, too. No, that's the kind of thing—if you're not a romantic, you shouldn't be in politics, particularly now. I agree.

I still think she could win New Hampshire, which I predicted Trump could lose New Hampshire a year, but it won't matter if she can't run the table. So I'm more interested in what's going to happen the next week to start to move anything in South Carolina or she's cooked because we haven't talked a lot about this, but the calendar is pretty awful. Yes. Because you've got a desert. If McCain in 2000, when we did the New Hampshire thing, if we had bounced, if we'd had the South Carolina primary 10 days later, we would have won.

But the Republicans are moving back, which could be a killing field or an expansion field for her. But then the whole, you know, it's bad until March. There are caucuses. There's just one Trump-rigable thing starting with Nevada in a row. So...

I just don't see her having the chops. There was a path to second. That's the part here in Iowa that my brain got. But she just can't execute. And you guys are right on the earlier point.

The frontal attack on Trump doesn't work, asked Christie. But there was a, I was with Trump, I saw him go bad, and now the choice is me and Trump, and here's why me, not Trump. She never made it. She never had the guts to make it. Now she's trying to make it in the 11th hour, and the motive is clear. Wow, she's dying. She's trying Nikki Haley 3.0 now.

And it just undercuts everything. So you get glibness with nothing behind it. You know, you've been saying it. We've all been saying it. She's not without talent as a politician. She's a good performer, although she...

didn't earn the she didn't learn the art of developing material as she went along and their stuff got a little stale in fact you know in the late breakers uh she and DeSantis basically split the the uh voters who you know they more than Trump got the voters who decided late uh

But, you know, this notion that she had all the momentum was belied by that. I mean, she's split with DeSantis. But the point I was getting to is, you know, she's always throughout her life in politics tried to finesse stuff, you know, based on how her read of the current politics. And she's trying here to finesse the unfinessable. And you look bad doing it. Yeah, no, exactly. And by finesse.

Trying to please everybody, she pleased no one. Now the question is, can she pull the independent trick in New Hampshire where Trump is weakest? But it won't matter if she can't run the table and beat him twice in a row. Isn't the fundamental problem that Trump has great strength with one cohort that's really important in Republican primaries, and that's Republicans? Yeah, that is the problem. I had a spreadsheet where I thought, all right, if the big crossover happens,

And she does well 20% of the electorate, the 80. And I had Trump at 51 among the 80, the base Republican vote. I'd heard DeSantis about tied. I think maybe I'm a point or two ahead there. But she didn't get the hamburger helper. New Hampshire is full of it. Iowa is not. It would have been an unnatural act. That's the bad bet I made.

But, you know, South Carolina is kind of a hybrid. It's open to, she'll do well in the eastern part, but the hours there are harder than the New Hampshire hours. They're more Trumpy. And she needs gasoline now to start moving it there, not just the New Hampshire sprint, which could be, now Trump losing will still be a big moment. And I have no faith in her or her

staff's ability to ride that Bronco and make it work. And I think, you know, she'll be back into some dumb answer like slavery. She'll be pandering. She's becoming a politician.

And Trump is the anti-politics politician, and that bodes well for the end of the world and Trump. Gibbs, you speak in that weird dialect. Why don't you talk about what happens when they go down south? Well, look, I think that the challenge to build off of what Murphy said in terms of the length of the calendar is,

is once you get out of New Hampshire and go to Nevada and then South Carolina and then a bunch of Southern states in Super Tuesday, is that electorate is going to look far more like an Iowa electorate than it will look like a New Hampshire electorate. And so the challenge is if she can't win in an electorate that... And it's interesting, not only was the turnout appreciably down, but

Donald Trump made the Iowa caucus electorate look a lot better and a lot more of what he needed. Far more men voted. You know, there were less evangelicals, even as sort of Ron DeSantis placed all his bets on, you know, being the evangelical candidate. But when you roll into Nevada, particularly when you roll into South Carolina. She's going to be back in the norm of the Republican party.

primaries where without a humiliating loss and bad behavior, Trump has quite the grip, as we all know. And then DeSantis, you know, the zombie. We'll get to DeSantis in a second, but just looking at the entrance polls from last night, among white evangelicals, Trump 58, DeSantis 23, Haley 11. Among very conservative caucus goers, Trump 65, Haley 3.

So even among independents, Trump was at 47 and Haley was at 20, but it's a different kind of independent in this caucus. But the point is, when you look at among the people who call themselves MAGA, Trump 78, Haley 3. So these are unforgiving numbers when you move into these pure Republican primaries, particularly Trump.

in the South. You know, I was around a lot of my old Republican hack friends here over the last two days, freezing together. And two of them made the same point independently, which made a lot of sense to me. I was out here last year in April. I gave a speech at the wonderful Culver Center. I think you've done that gig too, Axe. I have, yes. They're wonderful people. So one of them, an old pro, pulled me aside. You know, when you were out here in April, I was kind of where you are because then...

The real feeling was fear of Biden. You know, he's not great, but if we run Trump again, we can lose. That's totally gone now. There's like no worry about Trump beating Biden. They think we get to avenge the loss. Trump will walk all over him. Biden is that bad. There's no risk. You know, we can double down on the cult leader.

And boy, oh boy, I think there's a lot of that in the air now. And that's even going to be a factor in New Hampshire and beyond. It's not just an Iowa thing. I think that South Carolina is set up far more for a Trump than it is for a Nikki Haley. Yeah.

I mean, this is much more like what South Carolina's going to be like than New Hampshire. She ran out of Republicans. So she'll have a home court, Ed. She'll have a home court thing there, but I think not enough. She won't have a home court. She'll be from there. But again, the apparatus, Henry McMaster is the governor. He's already endorsed Trump. She's going to be playing a home game with the crowd being against her. She'll be playing a home game in Charleston.

The minute she heads west. The other problem is in the inside world and why I'd never liked her and, you know, but I've been for her to stop Trump. I'm still for her to stop Trump. She's got a lot of enemies piled up in the inside game back there. Nikki's had some,

some sharp elbows over the years. Well, did you see the story last night that, who was Donald Trump on the phone to about a possible endorsement? Tim Scott. Tim Scott. Yeah, he'll have to fight Burgum for it, who she appointed to the U.S. Senate. Let's stop for a minute and listen to a word from one of our fine sponsors. ♪

Played DeSantis' thing last night. They were just so excited about the fact that they were predicting that we wouldn't be able to get our ticket punched here out of Iowa. But I can tell you, because of your support, in spite of all of that that they threw at us, everyone against us, we've got our ticket punched out of Iowa. Yeah!

Ron DeSantis became a much better candidate by the end of that thing. And I don't know whether that's because of the dancing bear rule, where if a bear dances, no one says, gee, he doesn't dance very well. He had so lowered expectations. You know, he was calling himself by the end, I'm the underdog and so on. He was the over overdog for a long time. And he had the loser's freedom. When you think you're dying, you suddenly say, what the hell? I'll be me. Try that for a change.

and you get better he turned out to be a better version of himself yeah uh during the final having said that he's he's broke he's still lost by 30 points he's dead he's got no play in new hampshire when he says he's punched his ticket i think it's on a greyhound bus because that's about what he could afford uh on his way out of uh out of new hampshire you've got some material today you've been

He's been practicing. I was on TV for seven hours last night, guys. I had to come up with some stuff. There's an awful old Wall Street phrase, the dead cat bounce. You take a dead cat, you throw it out a 10-story window, it'll bounce down the street and people think it's alive. Well, meow, Ron, you're a dead cat. Where are they going to go? I guess South Carolina?

What do they do now? He showed up in South Carolina this morning, and they say he's going to New Hampshire. Well, because he has a CNN town hall tonight. I mean, that's the only reason he's going to New Hampshire. And Nikki Haley's smart enough at least not to get on a stage with him, and only him. She said, you know, I'm going to debate. I'm only going to walk onto a debate if Joe Biden or Donald Trump is there. No, I mean, I'm stunned. And at some point, somebody will write a longer piece and we'll have some reflection on it.

This is a guy that was paying canvassers in California as part of the long arc of the nomination and forgot to set up any sort of organization inside of New Hampshire.

He bet it all on Iowa, said he was going to win Iowa. And then last night his remarks were, I've got the shiniest silver medal you could possibly ever be awarded. And to your point, X, he lost by almost 30 points. He's got to go home to Tallahassee and hang it on the wall because that's about as far as he goes. He ought to throw the long ball. He ought to go to this thing in New Hampshire. Yeah.

And he ought to attack the hell out of New Hampshire. You guys are just a bunch of liberals who come into the primary. You go ahead and stab Trump in the back. I'm heading to South Carolina where the damn Republicans are. We're going to start the revolution. That's right. That's smart, Mike. And let Nikki beat Trump and out of the chaos, rise again. Label her the great Democratic hope to take down the Republican movement and only I.

and blow it all up because, you know, otherwise it's a test for him. He'll fail. But again, he's a zombie. He's wandering around looking for meat, but he's dead. Yeah, he's dead. I told you Murphy was smart. That would be a good move. That would be a good move. Exactly. Exactly. Well, we would have spliced those two moments together. Murphy, you obviously know a lot about New Hampshire. Absolutely.

Axe and I only have bad memories from New Hampshire. They still talk about you guys up there. Remember the time? Yes. We were riding high until about seven minutes before the polls closed. What does Nikki Haley have to do? She's not going to get on a debate stage, presumably, with Donald Trump. It's good for her at this point, though.

Because all her bad instincts are then on camera. No, New Hampshire likes punishing Iowa. Yeah, that's what she has to do. She has to use the line that she prematurely launched. Right, she should have held it. No, no, she can still win that primary. It's a little, it's less certain now. But remember, 45% of that primary are more Indies.

So she'll win them by 15. So here's what she's doing that's killing her, though. She's irritating the Republicans by being for nothing, her natural state, just some word cloud, the cuttlefish factor. And then the Indies are smelling a phony, and they only see her as a vessel to punish Trump. So

You know, there's no strength in any of that. So she can still do it there, but she's going to be isolated as a fluke winner in New Hampshire. And it's to the point now in the party where DeSantis could be the commentator, the catalyst as he spirals down.

calling, you know, literally label her McCain. Yeah, she's the next McCain. We got to stop her in South Carolina and all that will resonate. So he'll be now an agent for Trump in effect. In addition to Gibbs spending his money, all his money in Iowa, he also by diving so far to the right to try and beat Trump,

completely mortgaged his chances in New Hampshire. So, you know, I think your strategy, Mike, is right. We should point out that Vivek Ramaswamy

stepped out of the race last night, which may sound inconsequential to some people, but he did have 8% or so in the polls in New Hampshire, and he's endorsing Trump today in New Hampshire. And I'm sure that to the extent that any of those folks vote, they're not going to vote for Haley. They're going to vote for

They're going to vote for Trump. So that's going to give Trump a little edge. Trump is also pounding her on immigration in New Hampshire, on on Social Security in New Hampshire. He'll probably hit her on taxes in New Hampshire. And all of that while she's running this sort of ephemeral, you know, I'm not Trump or Biden campaign.

I don't know. I, I, you know, well, she's trying to age now. It'll be two old guys. But the problem with that is, yeah, one of them's our old guy. She's never done that. I, I was there with him. I saw him at his best from the UN. And then I saw it turn. I,

I saw him cuddle up the North Korean dictators who murdered their people like eating popcorn. I saw him suck up to Putin and undercut the people who give weapons to the murderers. And I saw him spend like a Democrat. I saw it. He was great. You know, give him a watch. There was none of that. And instead, they tried to kiss Trump to death. And then at the last minute, they pull out kind of crappy small knives and they just all look like phonies. And, you know,

It's a grim deal, and I just don't see her. I'm less worried about New Hampshire because if she wins it, she has to. But how does she win South Carolina? Because if you don't beat Trump twice to twice, he's going to grind you down. You win South Carolina, you can win Michigan. Okay, then let's take a break right here, and we'll be right back. ♪

Let's talk about Trump for a second. Like, I think the most surprising thing last night to me wasn't the result. I hate to say Murphy, but the it was Trump's performance when he drugged him election night. Yeah. The speech. Well, but you know what? You know what I wonder about? First of all, Trump has the best campaign operation that he's ever had.

And that was reflected in Iowa, where they actually built an operation that helped them on a 40 below wind chill night bring out their people. And that's one of the reasons why he did well. I think his organization proved itself to him. And he has a few rational people in that operation. And I think they told him, go out there and act like a winner and be gracious and

and send this message that it's all over. It would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems and straighten out all of the death and destruction that we're witnessing that's practically never been like this. It's just so important, and I want to make that a very big part of our message. We're going to come together. It's going to happen soon, too. It's going to happen soon. I mean, that was so un-

Trump-like. Yeah, but I'll footnote that because we talked about this before and we have a slight disagreement. I think Trump's a pussycat when he's 35 points ahead. That could be the motivation. Bad for him. That's why if Nikki can clip in New Hampshire, it'll still be an interesting few days because he'll throw all those guys out the window. He won't listen anymore. He'll, he'll, he'll, that'll be the, that'll be, that's the window. That's the, that's the last hope.

He showed up this morning at this E. Jean Carroll defamation suit where he's already been found guilty of defaming her. And I think he thinks that any time there's a court action, he should show up to underscore the fact that he is the victim and he wants to play the victim. I got to believe that some of his campaign people probably said, you know what, boss?

be better to go straight to new hampshire he didn't do that so he's not totally in there under their uh control yet and he may and as you point out mike he he he's he may not stay there the minute things don't go his way but yeah i think though he's just setting up accelerating this idea of everyone coming together right i think he's gonna yeah good of the party why are you running

You're helping Biden. I mean, strategically, it was the right thing to do. He wins in New Hampshire and he says to everybody on that stage, right? We don't need to go to Nevada and South Carolina. It's over. It's time for us to come together. No,

No, I get it. I get the strategy. It's just un-Trump-like. I mean, Mike might be right that, you know... It is, except if you're winning. Yeah, but I'll tell you what, Stan, you know, it would have been easy to see Trump on that stage crowing about how he had kicked everybody's ass. And instead, he had nothing but kind words for Haley and Trump.

and DeSantis and except when you when you win by the margin he won by it wasn't like you know I mean again I think you when you win by 30 points when you win almost every county even Trump can be somewhat magnanimous well he can but it but it's not his natural instinct his natural instinct would be to say I understand what his natural instinct is I'm telling you what I think his strategic his natural instinct would be to say I I we we

we did some, no one ever did before. We want every County. We know what he wants to do is kneel before me and I may spare you.

You know, but they've got that. That's what he's going to get. He's going to get every senator that isn't endorsing him to come out. Every member of the House is going to come out. Not that that's truly going to matter. DeSantis had the Iowa Senate and the Iowa House wired, and it didn't really matter. No, but what it does matter is it helps him augment the message you're talking about, which is, you know, this is over. That's clearly being set up. And look, as quickly as he can get this done, because...

The one number we haven't spent as much time on is a third of Republican voters have serious reservations about Donald Trump being president if he's convicted. His big criminal cases start right around Super Tuesday. He needs to have this thing wrapped up by Super Tuesday such that they can't unwrap this thing up when he goes in front of a court system that, quite frankly, is a coin flip. And the idea of he's losing this case in New York

The business case, this defamation suits an older case, but these federal, these upcoming federal cases are what's the real peril for him. And so he's got a real impetus to get this thing locked up by the beginning of March. So I want to ask you guys about that. Yeah, you're talking about these entrance polls. Do you think, first of all, do you think Biden legitimately won in 2020? You know, everybody focused on the 68% who said no, 28% said yes.

Let's just call them Murphy Republicans. And then...

The second one is Trump fit for presidency if convicted of a crime. 32% said no. Now, I don't think all of those people are going to, if it's Biden versus Trump, I don't think all of them are going to vote. I think some of them are going to vote for Trump, but you don't need to peel that many off. Yeah, no, look, half the Republicans in the low turnout version, so very R, very Basie, chose not to vote for Trump.

But in a presidential re-elect, when they think the president that's running for re-election is senile and unable to run an economy they believe causes pain, the standard to replace them with somebody is so low. So, you know, Trump is super vulnerable. I think if Biden were to drop out of the race tomorrow and run a chip, it might be better because nobody wants Trump in a general election. The problem is it's

really easy to underestimate how much it's a binary choice of fire Biden or not. And I just have little confidence in them either to fix that. But yeah, there are ours who, you know, may

But then I worry that whatever the hell they're called, third-party scam pack or whatever, that they go and create a little escape valve for those people to go waste their vote. That's a danger. A huge threat. For sure. And you kind of see it in these trial heats where Trump does a notch better when those folks are in. Well, assuming that, I mean, there's not going to be a chimp who's an American citizen who

who you can slide in there, who's over 35 years old. And a Democrat. I got a few in the House caucus I could nominate, but they're all ours. But strategically, what this says to me is, if I'm screening for focus groups, if I'm looking at polling, I want to look very closely at this universe.

And I want to see how you peel these people away. This is the this is the there is a persuadable group of independents, Republican leading independents and maybe a few Republicans in this universe who say, yes, Biden won and yes, Trump would be unfit.

And that's where I would like I'd focus like a laser on these people. And I also, you know, do the basic blocking and tackling and and sort of having a message that is a contrast that you drive every day. That is not just about democracy, but about the kind of day to day issues that people care about.

And that's what, you know, we're still waiting to see from the Biden campaign. But I think last night was a good night for the Biden campaign in that sense, David, because the reality of it is, is much, much closer time-wise to being Biden versus Trump. And I think Biden needs a longer runway to remind people for longer periods of time that

about the diatribes and the dangers and the chaos and the vengeance that will ensue. So I think there's going to be a lot of that. If I was in the Biden campaign, I'd set up some of those focus groups this coming week in New Hampshire because you're going to get a much better test of an electorate to appeal that to, right? Iowa Republicans versus New Hampshire Republicans. And don't forget, New Hampshire is as close to a swing state as we have that's outside of that sort of top five.

It wasn't a huge victory percentage-wise or number-wise for Biden in 2020. It's been a close state in a bunch of elections. But you can identify exactly who those people are in New Hampshire and what messages they react to, given the fact that Trump is going to be literally front and center in that state over the course of the next seven days. Yeah, no, they hold the key in the key state suburbs. And they're who you've got to pile 80% of the election on.

Though, again, the problem is I think the Biden people will be tempted to let them all bitch about Trump, why they are not for it, which is why they're in the group instead of the harder work was how the hell do we get them to hold their nose for Biden? Right. That's the hard job. It's negative ads are the easiest thing in politics. A positive ad that works is the hardest. So they've got to figure that out. And boy, I would tell them I would get the most coordinated,

new media creative, younger surrogate group to follow Trump around and needle him. I would have stand-ups on the road. I'd have a whole thing. I'd give them a streaming channel and just poke the bear and let the bear continue to craze out. They've got to give people a taste of Trump 2.0 in the general election. You can still get regular voters to say, what, he's running?

So they really got to get that done because they don't have a messenger because of Biden's weaknesses. So they got to get the best anybody's ever seen at surrogate attacks. They really have to develop a disinformation

discernible and repeated message because they do have good surrogates, but surrogates are less good if they don't know what to say because you haven't given them a play to run. So they've got to... Murphy saw the surrogates in Iowa, the Biden surrogates. Yeah, they had Katzenberg out here because when Iowa looks for leadership, they want to talk to Hollywood executives. And they had J.B. Pritzker.

who has future plans for Iowa rolling out of Chicago. So, yeah, they don't know what to do. And you're right. They've got, and I agree, and it's got to be about motive. We've done it before in the show. But Biden wants to run a two-point campaign. Well, three points. I'm not old. I beat him before. And the economy's better than you think. Quit whining. Read some statistics. And I don't think they have anybody who can change Biden. I think he is the angry old shouting gorilla inside. And...

You know, the campaign reflects that. So they better they better come up with a change up because more what they've been doing for a year gives Trump an incredibly good shot to win. Let's take a short break and hear from our sponsors. You know, I've said this before here. I'm going to keep saying it, hoping that somebody somebody hears. But oh, they hear you. It's just a reaction. I think it's a little different than we'd like.

I think that this is what I would say if I were Biden. I know I'm freaking old. I've got a driver's license. It has a date on it. I know that the other guy is as well. And that's not the issue here. The issue is what kind of what kind of country do we want? What kind of future are we planning planting for our kids and our grandkids? And, you know, this guy is consumed by his past and will be consumed by his past.

And I'm working on a project here about the future, about whether we're going to have an economy where the kids can grow up and live a decent life.

life, middle-class life about. And then yes, you know, where people can, where women can, you know, you can fit all of his issues, including democracy under that and paint a picture of the America that he's working toward. And then you, and you can put your accomplishments under that heading without sort of looking for credit, which is what he wants to do all the time. Yeah. The whole campaign has been therapy for him and we got to get out of that business.

Yeah. So, I mean, I, you know, I think you're right, Robert. It absolutely, this, the quicker this thing tunnels down to the two of them, you know, we'll leave the third party thing out of it for a second. There's kind of an interesting hook, you know, that Trump is an old guy or it's all about him. Biden's an old guy. It's all about you. And the only thing older than Trump is Trump's ideas. Yes. Well, I think I said this before, but Saul Schor, who's a great, um,

who's a great democratic media consultant, did an ad for Ed Markey in his race against Joe Kennedy. Remember they had this primary in 2022 for the Senate. Yeah. He came, Markey came back from like 24 points down, but one of the ads they did, Markey ran as the progressive in the race. And one of the ads they did was with AOC and,

I think the words were something like, it's not the age of the man that I'm concerned about. It's the age of his ideas.

And that is the kind of seed of, I mean, that honestly got me thinking about this. I mean, you know, so there is a message here that is legitimate and true. They just need to execute on it and they need to get their candidate to buy into it.

But really, people are not interested in Joe Biden and Donald Trump. They're interested in themselves and what their future is going to look like. And they're particularly interested in their kids and their grandkids. And so, like, what is the offer?

Yeah, no, I agree. And how is it clean in a contrast? Because Trump is about him. And Biden is more likely suited to talk about the future. And Donald Trump is much more suited to talk about the past. So, quite frankly, you could get into this rhythm, I think, somewhat easily. I agree with you some sort of they did the Valley Forge speech.

But it was much more just the straight contrast against Trump and democracy. And I think Murphy's point is really a great one, which is, you know, how do you make the positive ad not just the negative ad? The negative ad is the positive ad. The one I'm describing is the positive ad. I know. I think this idea, you know, unfortunately, when you bring up age, you tend to hear,

from the white house or the campaign that the tendency is to be, or you hear from pundits who say, look, just don't talk about that. It's sort of like pretend it's not there. Yeah. The antler problems, Murphy's antler thing, right? You can't not talk about something that 60% of the people are concerned about, but put a lens on it, put a spin on it, broaden out the number of issues you're talking about, contrast the future versus the past on those issues. And I think, uh,

Look, that's as, that's as good as you can do. That's the best strategy they have. Yeah. I think one of the things they've got to be careful of is when they hammered the democracy thing for a while, it turns into on a partisan basis. It feels like virtue signaling all the time. Yes. Yes. Yes. Biden patting himself on the back. And the problem with the future is this is where the Democrats have a lot of problems. They sent the subtext that, that, that,

scares pissed off middle-class people who vote for Trump because, well, what is a democratic future? Is it a woke stopple socialist state? What is a meat and potatoes economic future that is a little less ideological and a little more better life for you? Yes. And, and, and so they're not great at that. Middle-class Joe Clinton was, if you think of the last several months of the Biden campaign in 2020, uh,

They were very much about Scranton Joe. They were very much about working class people. That Democratic convention, and I give Stephanie Cutter, who was the sort of architect of that convention, a lot of credit. That convention was about middle class economics. It was about faith. It was about Biden's attachment to the military and military families. The values that were sent there.

were broadly held values. It wasn't what you described, Mike. They've got to get back to more of that. They've got to get back. That's what I'm saying because the perception is not that convention anymore. Biden was elected as the more moderate, safe Democrat who wasn't going to do Bernie-style health care and everything.

And then he lurched left in office in perception. We can argue about it or not, but the rise of Trump is partially the rise 2.0. It has Biden fuel behind it. If Biden was doing great, you know, Trump would be a sideshow right now. And so they've got to understand that they've got to get back to that formula again.

Yeah, I agree. And they've lost. I agree. I agree. Yes, he's perceived more as Washington Joe than Scranton Joe now. And failure Joe, which is unfair when you look at his legislative record, most successful Dem president in several. But

The perception side is terrible. Inflation killed them because that's your car payment, your truck payment. And that's where they feel it. It's clear that they have to do this future past centered on the economy. I think the most stunning thing that we all see in polling is

Is that people feel like the economy, statistics aside, and I think Murphy's right, people get too inside the building and inside Washington get too focused on some Bureau of Labor statistics stat rather than sort of how people feel and their consumer confidence and where they're going. But, you know, this is where you've got to talk about tax cuts for the middle class versus tax cuts for the wealthy. Yes, yes. Tax cuts for shipping jobs overseas versus manufacturing. Right. All that sort of stuff has to be centered on because

You know, again, it's startling that more people think that the economy was better under Trump than under Biden. That's the key to the whole election. And every time he loses that question, I think, holy Christ, this guy's going to lose to Trump. Right. That's what they have to fix. They've got to rotate this argument as to whose side are you on argument. Totally. Let me add one last point. I'll shut up about this. The other thing they should do

run team versus team. Trump's got all dregs. General Flynn and the seditionist in the Department of Defense, they've got young stars like Gina Rolando, Pat Buttigieg, Landry, the drinking game, the young stars. They're afraid the young stars make them look old. They've already lost that battle because the problem is even if they lay out this great motive argument, who

who wins, who loses. The country still thinks, well, how's he going to do all that if he can't find his toothbrush? Yeah. And they got to surround him with the action team. He can't do it alone anymore. If you put your ear close to the speaker listeners, you'll hear

The Gina, Gina, Gina chant led by Mike Murphy. I want to I want to raise another issue that is related to this, which is, you know, Trump is clearly, clearly leaning as he did last time, but into the issue of immigration.

and the border stuff. And boy, I'll tell you what, man, if I were Biden, I would meet the Republicans more than halfway on this. And then I would challenge them when they turn it down, whatever it is that he offers. And I would say, what is the truth? Which is, I am willing to go

way, you know, down the road on this and find a mutually agreeable answer because this is a big problem and we need to solve it. The problem is they don't want to solve it. They want the issue. They'd rather have the issue than the solution.

And, you know, and that leads into what I think is a great strength of Biden's, which is he has proven several times during this administration, he actually is willing to work with the other side. He is willing to be reasonable. And, and I, by the way, they're refusing to work with him on the issue. I think I would pin that right on Donald Trump and say, they're taking their orders from Trump. Trump doesn't want a solution to this problem. I've gone offense on this issue.

They're way too passive on this, and I think they're underestimating the power of the issue. No, I agree. They're bleeding from an artery, and it's a two-point plan. They try to make the legislative deal and flip the table, and I would go find whoever the next Schwarzkopf is or some tough guy general, put them in charge, and somebody who can play politics and say, well, the politicians are talking. We've got an action plan. Some czar will get 80 days of goodwill to cover the big turn.

offense always works i mean i've done so many governor campaigns well republicans can't talk about education well it's number one issue let's go on offense on it and it tends to work offense always works yeah well especially if the question about you is whether you have the sort of energy and gumption uh offense becomes even more important right and uh so no i anyway

Here we are, one week out of New Hampshire. We will be back. I think we're going to delay the show a day, right? So we can do it Wednesday after the rubble. Murphy, do you think when we sit here a week and a day from now, Haley will have won New Hampshire or not?

I will make a prediction on that. I said all year, all year, I cracked crystal ball. Cracked crystal ball. That I thought there was an excellent chance Trump would be upset in New Hampshire. And I'll give my final prediction on what will happen in New Hampshire after you guys make your predictions about what will happen in New Hampshire. I'm going to get you out on the crow plank a little.

I think Trump's going to win New Hampshire. I think Trump's going to win New Hampshire as well. I think it's a coin flip. Well, that's not a prediction for crying out loud. He's gotten finally, he's gotten burned so much. He's not going to venture. I've always said it's a guy who owes a lot of people dinners. The safe bet is Trump wins New Hampshire.

My gut tells me that the secret New Hampshire slogan of bleep me, Iowa is somewhat in play here. Yeah, no, that's a, that's a play. If I had more faith than Nikki, I definitely say she's going to win New Hampshire. If I have to guess, I've reluctantly gunned to my head.

Yeah, I think she edges us out in New Hampshire, but I have very little confidence behind that. It really is a coin flip in my view. When do we collect all these bets? Yeah. No, listen, I think it could be close. I'm not saying that she's clearly going to do better than she did in Iowa because of the participation. She's doing three or four points there now. It's just how does she perform the next 150 hours?

And you got to Santa's muddling everything up now. One quick piece of advice for Nikki, because at the very end of Iowa, they were doing events and not taking questions. Yeah. We tried this, remember, David, in the week between Iowa and New Hampshire, you

In 2008. Yeah, we screwed everything up. Yeah. Yeah, and we got off our rhythm. We played it a little bit safe. Came like a conquering army. There's nothing for Nikki to play safe about, right? This is a one-shot deal. She's already blowing it. She's not doing an MUR debate. That's her default position, though. Yeah, yeah. She needs every debate she can get, and she needs to win them. I would get on that stage in all those different towns and say...

Whatever you want, ask me that question. I'll even ask, you know, why did the Civil War start? We'll be here until you have no more questions. I'm ready to earn your vote. I don't know that that's going to work, but... Yeah, you're right. You're right. Somebody needs to grab her by the pastel lapels and say, stop thinking you're protecting something. There's nothing to protect here.

You're going down the drain. You got to grab every debate and you got to win every moment of the next seven days. You got four chips, put them in the middle of the table and deal them. Yeah. Well, you got to perform. You're going to have a microphone. You're going to have to perform every minute. I mean, I think this race is all but done, but if he wins New Hampshire, then it is done. You know, it's very rare for anyone to win. Oh yeah. It's totally done. It's yeah. Yeah.

New Hampshire gives her a shot for a harder upset three and a half weeks later, followed by another harder upset in a couple. But that said, if she can beat them twice, she can roll the table. You got California, massive delegate pile in early March. Super Tuesday is not all Southern. But anyway, right now I don't see the toolkit. She's like a great double-A baseball player. I should have raised this earlier before we go just to raise everybody's anxiety about

You know, we've been talking a lot about Trump is convicted. That's a big problem for him. I don't imagine he's going to be acquitted. I think the evidence is probably really very strong. And I think Jack Smith is not. We haven't seen him turn his cards, all his cards over yet, including Trump.

Mark Meadows and others who may testify there. That said, if Trump were acquitted in... Yeah, if he's the nominee, if he's won New Hampshire and he's steamrolling, and now the Democrat conspiracy machine of crooked lawyers appointed by the evil Barack Obama have taken on to try to rig the election with a lawsuit. I'm just doing the Republic speak on this from the Trump side. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Of course, I don't believe that. I think Trump ought to be in prison.

But the point is, once he's got the winner veneer of nominee, he beat the challenger, the question is decided, and they go after him. It totally politicizes the whole thing. And the repub world will fall right behind him, tragically. Of course, if he felt like that was a likely outcome, he wouldn't be trying so hard to keep the trial from happening. Yeah, well, he's going to fight every fight he can legally. But the narrative of it,

Once he's the nominee and we're deciding the election in the courts, not at the ballot box. Yeah. As richly as he deserves leg irons, it's going to get tougher. Yeah. Yeah. All right, guys. We'll go through the entrails of New Hampshire today.

They'll be on the trails of New Hampshire this weekend. We'll go through the entrails of New Hampshire next week. We're going to be joined after New Hampshire if Trump wins with our special guest, the Minister of Tourism and Immigration from Portugal, applying for your citizen on their new speed track process and the lovely seaside condominiums that are reasonably priced out there. Something to look forward to. I actually have a big announcement next week, but I'll wait till then to make it about something I'm cooking up.

Stay tuned. That'll keep people interested. Good. The code word kilowatt. All right. Gentlemen, a pleasure. Talk to you then. Talk to you in a week. As always. I feel like we should have roasted you more. Don't worry. You're good around it. You can't help it. You're a nice guy, kids. I'm trying. All right. Bye, everybody. Thanks. Bye. Bye. Bye.