April 1st, 2025: Is Putin Gearing Up For A Major Offensive Amid Peace Talks? & France's Le Pen Banned From Seeking Office In Bombshell Ruling
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It's Tuesday, the 1st of April. Well, look at that. In some parts of the world, it's known as April Fool's. So, I guess, keep that in mind in case at some point today you get invited to join a war plans chat group. It might just be an April Fool's joke. Or maybe not. It's hard to tell these days. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right.

Let's get briefed. We'll start things off today with an update on the war in Ukraine, as Russian President Putin orders the conscription of another 160,000 Russian citizens into the military, and leaders in Kiev warn that Moscow is preparing for a massive new military offensive. Well, that could be one way to interpret the ordering of 160,000 new troops.

Later in the show, Israeli officials say that the IDF will dramatically expand its ground operations in Gaza in the coming weeks to occupy up to 25% of the enclave, upping the pressure on Hamas to release more hostages.

Plus, in a bombshell court ruling, France's right-wing leader, Marine Le Pen, was banned on Monday from running for public office for the next five years. We'll break down the case against Le Pen and what it means for the future of French politics, and if I'm able to correctly pronounce the name Marine Le Pen.

And in today's back of the brief, the war of words over the future of Greenland is heating up as their leaders punch back at President Trump's latest threats to annex the territory. And I honestly did not have war of words with Greenland on my 2025 bingo card. Didn't happen. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Despite the Trump administration's hopes for a permanent peace deal to end the war in Ukraine,

Well, it appears that Russian President Putin may have other plans in mind.

On Monday, the Russian president ordered another 160,000 Russian citizens to be conscripted into military service by July 15th to bolster the ranks of his depleted military. Just how happy are those Russian citizens? While Moscow recently all but expelled Ukrainian forces from their Kursk region in a bloody counteroffensive, and their military continues to slowly advance in eastern Ukraine, they are hemorrhaging troops at a historic pace.

Casualty figures remain very difficult to verify, but Britain's Ministry of Defense estimates that Russia has suffered up to 250,000 combat deaths since its full-scale invasion began in 2022, with the number of killed or wounded approaching 900,000. That makes this the deadliest Russian military campaign since World War II.

But the new draft may be about more than just replenishing Moscow's devastated ranks. The move immediately raised concerns in Kiev and throughout Europe, particularly since the mobilization comes in the middle of ongoing negotiations brokered by the U.S. to secure a ceasefire between Moscow and Kiev.

Ukrainian President Zelensky quickly warned that Putin is deliberately stringing America along in this peace process as he quietly prepares a massive new offensive to seize more Ukrainian territory. And that's according to a report from Politico.

It's the latest sign of just how precarious these negotiations are and the severe consequences that Ukraine could face if U.S. officials misjudge Putin's true motivations. Early last week, the Trump administration's diplomatic outreach yielded a very limited ceasefire, halting attacks on energy sites and ensuring the safety of shipping in the Black Sea.

But Ukrainian officials have already accused Moscow of flagrantly violating the accord with attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The Kremlin has also accused Ukraine of the same, while also suggesting they won't fully adhere to the ceasefire without sanctions relief from the U.S.,

raising further questions about whether the Putin regime is acting in good faith. Here's a spoiler alert. Putin doesn't act in good faith. Not to mention that Putin has now indicated that the only way an actual peace deal can be signed is if Ukraine installs a new government. Oh, so there's that.

Zelenskyy claims that Russia's limited engagement on peace talks is simply being used as a smokescreen, saying intelligence suggests Putin is gearing up for a major push into Ukrainian territory in the country's northeastern regions.

The Ukrainian leader warned, quote, Putin wants to negotiate territory from a stronger position. He only thinks about war, end quote.

As we discussed on yesterday's program, the Putin regime's tactics are reportedly beginning to wear thin on President Trump. He said Sunday that he's getting, quote, pissed off by the Kremlin's attempts to stall negotiations and will consider imposing new sanctions on Russia's oil trade if he feels that Moscow is actively seeking to undermine his efforts.

But despite the pointed remarks, Trump ultimately said he believes Putin will stick to his word. Well, that would be a first. From Zelensky's point of view, however, Trump is being naive. The Ukrainian president pointed to Russia's weekend drone and missile bombardment of the northeastern city of Kharkiv, which injured several civilians, sparked fires at industrial buildings and damaged 11 buildings, including two kindergartens.

Zelensky said that Moscow's forces have actually increased the rate of their aerial attacks since discussions with the U.S. began, firing more than 1,000 drones into Ukrainian territory over just the past week.

In his Sunday evening video address, Zelensky said, "...the brutality of Russian strikes, not just occasionally, but literally every day and night, show that Putin couldn't care less about diplomacy." He noted that for, "...several weeks now, there has been a U.S. proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, and almost every day, in response to this proposal, there are Russian drones, bombs, artillery shelling, and ballistic missiles."

Look, you may not like Zelensky, but he's not wrong in this assessment. It's also worth noting that a Kremlin spokesman said Monday that peace negotiations will continue to be, quote, a drawn-out process, suggesting that the Russians are in no hurry to end the war.

Zelensky called for a robust response from the U.S. to Russia's latest strikes, arguing that Trump should immediately move forward with new sanctions to pressure Putin into taking the negotiations seriously. As I mentioned, Trump has signaled that he's prepared to hit Russia with new financial penalties, saying Sunday that tariffs could be implemented within the next month. Still, he doesn't appear ready to up the pressure on Putin just yet. All right, coming up next...

Israeli officials say the IDF will dramatically expand its ground operations in Gaza in the coming weeks to occupy up to 25% of the enclave. Plus, France's right-wing leader, Marine Le Pen, gets sidelined by a bombshell court ruling banning her from seeking public office for the next five years. I'll be right back.

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Israel is preparing to dramatically expand its ground operation in Gaza, aiming to seize control of up to a quarter of the enclave in the coming weeks. The move, confirmed by a senior Israeli official on Monday, is part of a maximum pressure strategy designed to compel Hamas to release more hostages.

But the ground campaign's stated goals may belie a more permanent agenda, such as reestablishing military control over large swaths of the enclave and forcing some two million Palestinians into what government officials have labeled a, quote, humanitarian zone.

The operation has reignited concerns about the so-called voluntary departure plan long floated by some Israeli hardline members of Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition, which calls for the resettlement of Gaza's population as a means of eliminating Hamas.

Proponents argue the plan is a painful but necessary step to ensure long-term security. Detractors warn that it could entrap Israel in a costly and open-ended military occupation while stoking long-term regional volatility. On Monday, the Israeli Defense Forces issued new evacuation orders in Rafah, the southernmost city in Gaza, where previous air and ground assaults have already leveled entire neighborhoods.

An IDF spokesman announced on X that Israel was, quote, returning to intense operations to dismantle the capabilities of the terrorist organizations in these areas, urging civilians to flee immediately to the Al-Mawassi corridor. That's an already overcrowded strip of land along the Mediterranean coast, just northwest of Rafah.

As we've discussed here on the PDB, this renewed offensive began nearly two weeks ago and has already displaced thousands, including many Palestinians who had only recently returned to their homes during the January ceasefire.

Meanwhile, ongoing ceasefire talks remain deadlocked. That should surprise no one. As we've been tracking over the weekend, Hamas tentatively agreed to a new Egyptian broker proposal that was modeled on an earlier U.S. offer led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff.

The Egyptian proposal would see the release of five Israeli hostages per week, including American Israeli Eden Alexander. In return, Hamas is demanding a return to the terms of the 19 January ceasefire, which included a multi-week pause in fighting, increased humanitarian aid, and the start of second-phase negotiations.

Although Israel initially agreed to the Witkoff framework, officials now say they'll only sign off on a version that includes the release of 11 living hostages up front, followed by the return of 16 bodies by the 10th day of a 40-day ceasefire. Until then, the Israeli government has vowed to press ahead with its military objectives.

On the ground, the IDF says that its forces are consolidating control over key transit corridors in central Gaza, particularly around the Netzerim corridor, as well as securing perimeter zones closer to the Israeli border. On Monday, the IDF claimed that it had killed 50 Hamas terrorists and uncovered a previously unknown half-mile tunnel system, despite conducting multiple raids into the area during earlier phases of the war.

The IDF also announced the destruction of a Hamas rocket manufacturing site. That's an important development, as the terror group has resumed intermittent rocket fire toward Israeli-controlled territory in recent weeks. With ceasefire negotiations faltering and military operations expanding, Israel's campaign appears to be targeting a new goal, one that may soon extend to the majority of the Gaza Strip. All right, shifting to France.

Right-wing leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running in the 2027 presidential election following a criminal conviction that threatens to upend the country's electoral landscape. On Monday, a French court

sentenced Le Pen to four years in prison, notably two of them suspended, and fined her nearly $110,000 for allegedly embezzling more than $4 million in EU funds by misclassifying party staffers as parliamentary aides on payroll. More significantly, the court imposed a five-year ban on her holding public office, a move that takes immediate effect and strips the far-right firebrand of her shot at the presidency.

Though Le Pen has vowed to appeal, French appellate courts can take years to issue a ruling effectively sidelining her for the foreseeable future. The judge described Le Pen as, quote, "...at the heart of the embezzlement scheme," citing her lack of remorse and a risk of recidivism as justification for the sentencing.

The ruling has, of course, reverberated through France's fragile political architecture. That's quite the sentence, isn't it? Thank you very much. As regular listeners of the PDB may recall, Le Pen brought down French President Emmanuel Macron's previous government with a no-confidence vote. That was back in December. And his current government is, well, frankly, hanging on by just a thread. With Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third term and no clear centrist successor in place...

The court's ruling eliminates Le Pen as a candidate widely seen as a favorite to succeed him.

In a televised rebuttal, she denounced the ruling as politically motivated attack, likening it to the tactics of authoritarian regimes. She stated, quote, there are millions of French people who are outraged to an unimaginable degree, before declaring, quote, I'm not going to let myself be eliminated like this, end quote. Le Pen, the political leader of the National Rally Party, also known as RN, maintains her innocence, insisting the case is part of a broader effort

to dismantle populist challengers through weaponized anti-corruption laws.

It's important to note that she will retain her seat in Parliament until the end of her term, but with Le Pen out of contention, party leadership is now expected to rally around RN President Jordan Bordea, who has long been groomed as her successor. Bordea, who has helped the RN appeal to younger voters, said it was not just Le Pen who was unjustly convicted, but, quote, "...it was French democracy that was killed."

Long live the revolution. Reaction has not been confined to France. Doge chief Elon Musk weighed in on X, posting, quote, this is their standard playbook throughout the world, referring to what he described as, quote, radical left efforts to bypass elections through legal warfare.

The State Department also expressed concern. Spokeswoman Tammy Bruce labeled the decision part of a broader international pattern involving the, quote, exclusion of people from the political process. Yet despite the gravity of the verdict, Le Pen's political base appears unlikely to fracture. If anything, observers suggest the ruling could actually galvanize support among her followers, who see her as a martyr to the system that she has long sought to overthrow.

Okay, coming up in the back of the brief. Leaders in Greenland punch back at the Trump administration. How about that? That is a sentence that I have never, ever uttered before. I'll be right back.

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In today's back of the brief, it appears that officials in Greenland have had enough of the Trump administration's ongoing threats to fold the territory into the U.S. The war of words over the resource-rich Arctic territory intensified over the weekend when President Trump was asked by a reporter what he thought his chances were of annexing Greenland. Trump responded as if the matter was inevitable, saying, quote, We'll get Greenland, yeah, 100 percent, end quote.

Sorry, I tried to say that with a straight face. But Greenland's leaders, well, they weren't having it. Newly minted Prime Minister Jens Fredrik Nielsen, man, how about today's names, who was sworn into office last Friday, poured cold water on Trump's ambitions in a statement on Sunday, flatly saying that the U.S. will never get its hands on the territory.

Nielsen, let's call him Fred, said, quote, President Trump says that the United States will get Greenland. Let me be clear, he said, the U.S. will not get it. We do not belong to anyone else. We decide our own future, end quote.

But Trump looks determined to press ahead with his vision of American expansion, no matter how Greenland's leaders feel about it. Trump said that Sunday that while he thinks the territory can be acquired without the need for military force, he wasn't taking that scenario off the table. Hmm.

Military invasion of Greenland. Again, not something that I had on my 2025 bingo card. For some background, Trump has long expressed a desire to seize Greenland, arguing it's vital to deterring potential threats from China and Russia in the Arctic's crucial global trade and military arteries.

Now, those threats are real enough. China has been vying for dominance of Greenland's vast deposits of natural resources in recent years, while also pursuing expanded shipping routes through the region's waters. Russia, meanwhile, has recently reopened dozens of Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic region.

But Greenland, well, it's a semi-autonomous territory that is currently still a part of the Kingdom of Denmark. It has its own government and controls most of its domestic affairs, including natural resources and local policies, though Denmark retains authority over areas like foreign policy and defense.

While Greenland's leaders favor a gradual process of independence from Denmark, they have little interest in becoming part of the U.S. Their people, apparently, feel just as strongly, with the latest polling showing some 85% of Greenlanders opposing becoming a U.S. territory.

Trump's latest statement came in the middle of a controversial trip by Vice President J.D. Vance to Greenland over the weekend, where he chided Denmark over what he called their poor stewardship of the territory. But the reception for Vance in Greenland was icy, with locals protesting his surprise visit.

Despite Trump's bluster, some analysts, well, they think that his threats are simply meant as a negotiating tactic to secure U.S. access to rare earth minerals ahead of China.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Tuesday, the 1st of April. If you have any questions or comments, or if you pull off a really solid April Fool's joke, reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, which you can do, just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin.

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