April 21st, 2025: Signs Emerging That Trump’s Tariff Strategy May Be Working & The ‘Easter Truce’ That Wasn’t
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We'll start things off today with signs that the Trump White House's tariff strategy may be paying off. Japan, Indonesia, and others are offering deals and opening their markets of hundreds of millions of people to American goods. I'll have those details.

Later in the show, it was the Easter ceasefire that never was. Despite Vladimir Putin's announcement of a holiday truce, Russian forces pressed ahead with attacks in Ukraine. And perhaps at some point, folks will realize that Putin has no interest in stopping his war at this time. Unless, of course, he feels the pain.

he's not coming to the negotiating table. Plus, an accused terrorist wanted by India has been captured on U.S. soil, marking a major win for New Delhi and a notable moment in U.S.-India cooperation. And in today's Back of the Brief, a follow-up on a story we brought you last week as the Pentagon officially announces that the U.S. will be withdrawing a significant number of troops from Syria. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

I wanted to start today with a story you're not seeing on the front pages, but one that suggests President Trump's tariff policy might be working. Now, I'm no economist. I know that surprises you, but I'm not half bad at recognizing patterns.

And over the past several days, a fairly clear one has begun emerging. Countries are either announcing or considering plans to boost imports of U.S. goods, moves that are clearly aimed at appeasing President Trump into lifting tariffs.

According to reports, Japan, Thailand, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are amongst a number of nations planning to offer up concessions. We're talking everything from soybeans and cotton to liquefied natural gas and high-end industrial equipment. And together, those four countries alone represent a combined population of more than 640 million people. That's nearly twice the size of the U.S. And that's a very large potential market for American exporters. So...

Let's walk through what we're seeing here. We'll start with Japan, which is reportedly weighing major concessions on U.S. agricultural goods, soybeans, rice, meat, fish, and potatoes. It's also considering revising its car safety regulations. Now, on the surface, that might not sound like much, but those regulations have historically been used to prevent foreign carmakers from penetrating the Japanese market.

Thailand has agreed to buy $500 million worth of U.S. liquefied natural gas next year, with a 15-year plan to import 15 million tons in total. That's potentially billions of new dollars flowing into the American energy sector. Indonesia is pledging to boost U.S. imports by up to $19 billion, including $10 billion in energy deals, along with major purchases of wheat, soy products, and American-made industrial machinery. And

And Bangladesh is now signaling that it will ramp up purchases of U.S. farm goods like cotton, while also slashing tariffs on gas turbines, semiconductors, and medical equipment. They're even pledging to cut back non-tariff barriers like redundant testing and packaging rules that have long limited U.S. access. So you ask yourself, what's actually happening here?

Well, for all the noise about trade wars, what we're seeing is more like economic hardball. Trump isn't using tariffs necessarily to isolate the U.S. He's using them as leverage to strong-arm America's way into foreign markets and to boost key industries, agriculture, energy, and advanced manufacturing. It's somewhat like gunboat diplomacy, only with tariffs instead of guns.

And it's forcing countries to contemplate real concessions, concessions that could deliver access to over half a billion new customers when it comes to those four countries alone. And we know that there are other big players considering concessions as well, including India. That's another billion and a half potential customers for those of you at home keeping score.

Now, many have framed this as Trump needing 90 trade deals in 90 days in order to justify the 90-day tariff pause. But in reality, Trump doesn't need 90 deals. He just needs enough of the right ones, deals that shift the balance in America's favor, open high-value markets, and prove that the tariff strategy can actually extract real concessions.

So, will it work? Well, that does remain to be seen. The White House hasn't sealed any deals yet, and the clock is ticking. Add in the chaos that often surrounds Trump's team, and the outcome is, well, frankly anything but predictable. But the early signs are hard to ignore. And if the reporting we're seeing is accurate, foreign nations are now hearing a consistent message coming from the White House. The tariff pause is temporary, and the U.S. wants access to your markets.

All right, coming up next, Russia breaks its own Easter ceasefire with more strikes on Ukraine, and the U.S. arrests a wanted terrorist, marking a major win for India and a boost in law enforcement ties between the two countries. I'll be right back.

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Offer is valid for a limited time. Terms and conditions may apply. Welcome back to the PDB. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a temporary Easter ceasefire over the weekend, but as Monday morning dawned, well, it was clear the guns actually never went silent. In a video released by Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Putin, flanked by Chief of the General Staff Valery Yaroslavov, said that guided by humanitarian conditions...

Russian forces would halt military operations between 6 p.m. Sunday and midnight going into Monday. He declared, quote, I order that all military actions be stopped for this period, end quote.

And then he winked. How magnanimous. Ukrainian President Zelensky responded hours later with cautious optimism. In a message posted to X late Saturday, he said, quote, If Russia is now suddenly ready to truly engage in a format of full and unconditional silence, Ukraine will act accordingly, mirroring Russia's actions, end quote.

He reiterated that the U.S.'s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire remained on the table and that, quote, the answer to it must come from Moscow. But the skepticism in Kyiv was clearly on display and ultimately justified. Within the first six hours of what Moscow claimed would be a peaceful pause, Ukrainian officials reported 387 artillery shellings, 19 ground assaults, and nearly 300 drone incidents launched by Russian forces. Despite

Despite this, the Russian Defense Ministry insisted its forces had adhered to the ceasefire and instead blamed Ukraine for breaking it. Moscow accused Ukrainian units of carrying out 444 attacks on Russian positions during the truce window, including 900 drone-related strikes and multiple munitions drops.

On Sunday, Zelensky fired back, accusing Moscow of, quote, "trying to create a general impression of a ceasefire while continuing business as usual on the battlefield." Now, this isn't the first time a Russian-announced truce has unraveled in real time. Back in January of 2023, Moscow proposed a ceasefire during Orthodox Christmas, but the effort quickly collapsed when both sides accused the other of violating the terms almost immediately.

Meanwhile, in Washington, the political will to continue brokering a negotiated end to the war, well, appears to be wearing thin. On Friday, President Trump said the U.S. would take a pass on further diplomatic efforts unless tangible progress was made quickly. As we reported here on the PDB last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that sentiment, saying the U.S. was, quote, not going to continue with this endeavor for weeks and months on end.

as it had other priorities to focus on. Rubio added, quote, we need to determine very quickly now, and I'm talking about a matter of days, whether or not this is doable. If it's not going to happen, then we're just going to move on, end quote. And after another failed truce and another round of finger pointing, it's unclear whether diplomacy has any path forward here.

All right, turning to the U.S. The FBI has announced the arrest of a man on U.S. soil wanted by India for terrorism, marking a rare and significant win for New Delhi and another sign of tightening law enforcement ties between the U.S. and India under the Trump administration. The FBI says Harpreet Singh, an Indian national, was taken into custody Thursday in Sacramento, California.

Singh is said to have entered the U.S. illegally and managed to evade capture for years, relying on disposable phones and encrypted messaging apps to stay off the radar. Indian authorities say Singh is a key figure in what's called Babar Khalsa International, a banned Sikh separatist group with ties to Pakistan's intelligence services. The group seeks to establish an independent Sikh homeland known as Khalistan by violently seceding from India's Punjab region.

He's accused of providing funds, weapons and logistical support to operatives inside India and has been linked to a grenade attack last year on a retired police officer in the northern city of India. While no injuries were reported, the attack was seen as part of a broader campaign of intimidation and violence.

Authorities in the Indian state of Punjab say Singh wasn't just involved in that one attack. He allegedly orchestrated a string of targeted killings, grenade assaults on police compounds and extortion campaigns across the region. In January, India's National Investigation Agency offered a cash reward for information leading to Singh's capture.

Now that he's in U.S. custody, the focus will shift to what comes next, whether Singh will be extradited to face trial in India. And that's no small question. India has submitted more than 60 extradition requests to the U.S. over the past two decades, most of them unsuccessful due to concerns over the strength of evidence, differences in legal standards, or fears that the accused could face political persecution or human rights abuses if returned.

Singh's arrest is being viewed in India as a breakthrough moment in a system that has long frustrated Indian authorities. And there are signs of a broader shift. Just this month, the U.S. extradited a Pakistani-Canadian man named Taha Rana. He was accused of helping plan the deadly 2008 Mumbai terrorist attacks. That move was widely praised in India and seen as a gesture of goodwill from the Trump White House.

Also, Vice President J.D. Vance and his wife are planning a visit to India next week. While the agenda remains largely under wraps, the timing is noteworthy, suggesting a broader effort to reaffirm and strengthen ties between the two nations. Okay, coming up next in the back of the brief, the U.S. military announces a major drawdown of troops from Syria. I'll have those details next.

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In today's Back of the Brief, we told you last week that it was coming, and now the Pentagon has made it official. The U.S. will be shrinking its military footprint in Syria, pulling out roughly 600 troops over the coming months and bringing total troop levels below 1,000. Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell confirmed the move on Friday, saying the reduction reflects, quote, "...significant steps that we've made toward degrading ISIS's appeal and operational capability regionally and globally," end quote.

He added that U.S. Central Command will remain positioned to strike any remnants of ISIS in Syria, noting the drawdown is in line with President Trump's philosophy of, quote, peace through strength. While Parnell didn't offer many specifics, an unnamed U.S. official told the Associated Press that about 600 personnel will be leaving. The New York Times also reported the military will shutter three of its eight outposts in northeastern Syria.

As of now, roughly 2,000 U.S. troops are stationed across several sites in Syria, mostly in the Northeast, where they've been working alongside local Kurdish-led forces to prevent a resurgence of ISIS. That mission began after the terror group seized huge chunks of territory across Iraq and Syria all the way back in 2014, before being beaten back in the years that followed.

But let's be clear, this drawdown doesn't mean that the U.S. is stepping away from the region. In fact, the broader picture tells a very different story. While forces are being pulled from Syria, the U.S. military presence across Central Command, covering the greater Middle East, is actually growing.

As we've reported here on the PDB, two aircraft carriers, the Carl Vinson and the Harry Truman, are now launching strike missions against Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Pentagon has also repositioned Patriot air defense systems to the region, diverting them from the Indo-Pacific theater. And B-2 stealth bombers have been deployed to Diego Garcia, the joint U.S.-U.K. military outpost in the Indian Ocean.

So, while boots may be leaving Syria, American firepower across the region appears to be increasing.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 21st of April. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And, of course, to listen to the show ad-free, well, you can do that. You just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. It's really very simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe.

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