June 16th, 2025: Why Israel Chose This Moment To Strike Iran & Political Violence In Minnesota
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It's Monday, the 16th of June. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. And yes,

still on the road. Let's get briefed. First up, of course, we'll start things off with the escalating war between Israel and Iran. Now, after a weekend of heavy strikes, Israel says the campaign could last for weeks. A key question that many are asking is why did Israel decide to launch their attack now? Well, the PDB is here to try and answer your key questions, so we'll break that down.

Later in the show, a manhunt is underway in Minnesota after a deadly, politically motivated shooting left one Democrat lawmaker and their spouse dead and another Democrat lawmaker critically wounded. Plus, Egyptian authorities crack down on pro-Palestinian Western activists attempting to cross the Gaza border. Some were beaten, others deported, all were taught a lesson about the real world.

And in today's Back of the Brief, Trump's travel ban may grow in the coming weeks. A leaked memo suggested the U.S. could expand restrictions to 36 more countries. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

It was a growing conflagration over the weekend in the Middle East For four days now, Israel and Iran have been trading blows Iran has now launched hundreds of missiles and drones into central Israel with at least 13 confirmed dead on the Israeli side Buildings in Tel Aviv and other urban centers have taken direct hits and millions of Israelis have spent the last several days in and out of bomb shelters

Israel is continuing its own wave of airstrikes, targeting facilities across Iran, including within the capital Tehran. Israel appears to be operating with near total impunity thanks to its overwhelming air superiority. So far, Iran has struggled to mount any meaningful air defense, which frankly isn't much of a sales pitch for Russian defense systems.

While Iran has yet to release an official death toll, one human rights group puts the number at a little over 400. Israel says its campaign won't end anytime soon. Officials are warning that this operation will take weeks, not days. So today, well, I wanted to look at a question that a lot of people have found themselves asking: Why now? Why did Israel choose this moment to launch its most significant military operation against Iran to date?

Now, the most obvious answer would be Iran's nuclear program. Just last week, Tehran announced that it was firing up new enrichment sites, and some Israeli officials feared the country was on the cusp of a nuclear breakout. That could have been the final straw. But you could argue that that's only part of the story. To understand the timing, you have to look at what's happened over the past year and a half, and

and how Israel has strategically dismantled the regional threat network built by Iran over decades. Iran's strategy against Israel has traditionally relied on two pillars. First, the so-called "axis of resistance". It's a constellation of proxy groups nurtured and funded and trained and resourced by Tehran. This includes, of course, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various Shiite militias in Iraq and Syria.

Second, Iran's own conventional missile and drone arsenal capable of launching mass barrages from mobile platforms deep inside its own borders

If timed properly, this two-pillar strategy could overwhelm Israel's defenses. You'd have Hamas launching short-range rockets from the south, Hezbollah firing precision missiles from the north, the Houthis lobbing drones and cruise missiles from the southwest, and Iranian-backed militias joining in from the east. That forefront threat, frankly, could easily saturate Israel's multi-layered air defenses

the Iron Dome, David's Sling, and the Arrow System, and leave Israeli cities exposed. But that scenario never came to pass. And that was because the 7th of October changed everything. To what degree Iran had a direct hand in orchestrating Hamas's brutal massacre that day remains unclear. It is clear, though, that fighters from Hamas were being trained inside Iran prior to the attack. And it is clear...

that given how beholden Hamas has been over the years to the Iranian regime and the IRGC, of course, for everything from training to money to weapons, you'd be hard-pressed or simply naive to think that the October 7th attacks weren't coordinated or reviewed with the IRGC leadership ahead of time.

But what isn't in dispute is that the attack gave Israel the justification and the urgency to start systematically neutralizing every arm of Iran's regional strategy

Step one, of course, was Gaza. Hamas was the first target for obvious reasons. Israel responded with a full-scale invasion, targeting rocket factories, tunnel networks, and command posts. While Hamas remains active, its ability to launch sustained rocket barrages has been significantly degraded, as has its leadership.

Step 2: Lebanon Hezbollah, often described as Iran's crown jewel, joined the war hours after the 7th of October, firing missiles in solidarity with Hamas. But it didn't take long for Israel to retaliate. In the months that followed, of course, Israel launched limited operations into southern Lebanon and killed dozens of Hezbollah commanders, including its supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Then came the Pager bombs, a covert operation that targeted Hezbollah operatives

using their encrypted communication devices. The result? Well, overall, Hezbollah is now all but silent. Step 3: The Houthis By attacking Red Sea shipping lanes, the Houthis inserted themselves into the broader conflict. That gave Israel and a US-led coalition the green light to strike Houthi missile stockpiles and launchers in Yemen, degrading their long-range capabilities.

And step four, the Iraqi militias. These Iranian-backed groups have remained surprisingly quiet during the recent escalation, likely deterred by Israel's ongoing intelligence operations in Syria and Iraq, and of course the collapse of the Iranian-supported Assad regime in Syria. So, by early June, one entire pillar of Iran's strategy, the Axis of Resistance, was badly fractured, and that created an opening.

With its proxies weakened or neutralized, Iran would have to go it alone. And that's exactly what Israel was hoping for. Because Iran's own capabilities, while dangerous, are much easier to track and counter than a forefront proxy assault.

Iran's main weapon now is its missile and drone arsenal, but these strikes depend on mobile launchers that they have to move constantly in order to avoid Israeli counterattacks. Each launch reveals electronic signatures, giving Israeli warplanes and intelligence assets a window to locate and destroy the platforms.

And Iran can't just fire one or two missiles and call it a day. To break through Israeli defenses, they have to launch large-scale barrages all at once, dozens, sometimes hundreds of drones and missiles. That requires time, planning, and coordination. And each barrage comes at a cost. More launchers lost, more exposure to Israeli airpower.

So, as this war drags on, Iran's arsenal will inevitably shrink Its ability to sustain these attacks over the coming weeks will likely decline Meanwhile, Israeli jets continue to fly uncontested over Iran's skies Striking military infrastructure, airfields, nuclear facilities, and command centers Now, to bring this full circle, remember those two pillars we mentioned, the proxies and the missiles?

Imagine a third pillar, that would be, of course, a nuclear one And that was the nightmare scenario that Israel has always feared And while Iran is not there yet, Israeli officials have long warned that they are getting close So, the 7th of October didn't just give Israel a reason to respond It gave them, well, an historical opportunity An opportunity to dismantle Iran's conventional threat structure and prevent the rise of an even more dangerous nuclear one

Despite the fact that the PDB team brings you updates twice a day, the nature of news and conflicts is that, well, frankly, shit happens outside the reporting cycle and sometimes the coverage gets overtaken by new and fast-breaking developments. As an example, right now we're starting to get reports that there are operations on the ground in Tehran, possibly involving Mossad or Israeli operatives.

Some early reports indicate that high-value targets in Tehran are being eliminated by gunfire at close range. Now, we'll be working to get you the latest by our afternoon bulletin. All right, coming up next, a deadly political shooting in Minnesota sparks a manhunt, and Egypt cracks down on pro-Palestinian activists trying to storm the Gaza border. I'll be right back.

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In what's being described as a targeted political assassination, a masked gunman posing as a police officer fatally shot Minnesota Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband before fleeing the scene, triggering a multi-agency manhunt Authorities have identified the suspect as 57-year-old Vance Bolter, who remains at large and is considered armed and extremely dangerous

According to law enforcement officials, the deadly rampage began in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday when Bolter broke into the home of Democrat State Senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, shooting both multiple times. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz confirmed the Hoffmans underwent surgery and are expected to survive, calling the attack a, quote, assassination attempt. But Bolter wasn't finished. Shortly afterward, he drove several miles to the Hortman's residence.

where he shot and killed a Democrat state representative and former Minnesota House Speaker. Her husband, Mark, was also gunned down in the home. Police responding to the scene encountered Bolter dressed in tactical gear, impersonating a law enforcement officer. They say he fired on them before disappearing into a nearby wooded area on foot.

Inside the suspect's abandoned vehicle, investigators uncovered a disturbing cache of evidence: a handwritten manifesto, details of which have not yet been released; a so-called "target list" naming more than 70 individuals, including state lawmakers, abortion providers and out-of-state officials; and flyers bearing the phrase "No Kings" - a slogan associated with the anti-Trump protests held over the weekend.

While no direct link has been established between Bolter and those protests, officials say the material points to a broader strain of his anti-government extremism. Naturally, in what has been a highly partisan political environment in the US, both Democrats and Republicans have rushed to social media with their theories and speculation and, of course, to lay blame on the other side.

The search is now being led by the FBI. The Bureau announced a $50,000 reward and released surveillance images showing Bolter outfitted in a full rubber mask, warning that he may still be in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. Border Patrol has been placed on alert in case he attempts to cross into Canada.

President Trump condemned the killings, declaring, quote, such horrific violence will not be tolerated in the USA. God bless the great people of Minnesota, a truly great place, end quote.

But Bolter's background is raising eyebrows and questions. According to public records and reporting from Reuters, Bolter ran a private security firm that sold, quote, police-type vehicles and boasted about experience in war zones like Gaza and parts of Africa. Investigators believe his access to such vehicles may have helped him convincingly mimic law enforcement.

He was also linked to Evangelical Ministries and was twice appointed to the state's Workforce Development Board, first by former Democrat Governor Mark Dayton and then again by Governor Walz. Now, whether he had direct interaction with either of his victims during that time remains unclear.

An individual, David Carlson, identified as Bolter's roommate, told Reuters he received a disturbing text early Saturday morning Carlson told reporters, "He said that he might be dead soon." That message arrived shortly before the shootings began As with any fast-breaking emotive event, it's important for the investigation to take place and for actual facts and evidence to guide the discourse

I'd caution against getting your news from social media without fact-checking or corroboration or any effort to determine what is correct and credible and what is simply partisan bullshit being tossed out by either side. For now, the investigation remains fluid.

Okay, shifting to Egypt, authorities launched a sweeping crackdown on thousands of pro-Palestinian protesters attempting to reach the Gaza border, detaining participants, seizing passports, and dispersing crowds in what Egyptian officials say was a potentially destabilizing act.

The so-called resistance convoy, built by organizers as a multinational march to Rafah in solidarity with Gaza, unraveled into chaos Friday and Saturday as waves of protesters poured into Cairo and surrounding areas. Seeking to prevent unrest in the sensitive Sinai Peninsula, Egyptian security forces moved preemptively. Dozens of buses were intercepted at checkpoints and participants were warned to return to their hotels or face immediate deportation.

Officials cited security concerns over allowing more than 4,000 foreign nationals from 80 countries to advance toward the Gaza border, saying the sheer scale of the protests risked turning the area into a foreign-fueled flashpoint. Organizers claim some participants were left stranded while others were forcibly detained. They allege that authorities have targeted demonstrators despite their stated compliance with Egyptian law.

Footage circulating online shows keffiyeh-clad protesters clashing with unidentified men in plain clothes, some wielding clubs. In one video, demonstrators shout, quote, free Palestine beneath Algerian and Swiss flags before being dragged away. At least one clip shows protesters throwing water bottles in response. Now, here's a pro tip.

When in Egypt or really any foreign country don't assume that your self-righteousness and your unwarranted confidence about being right will protect you from local justice or authorities

Whether the plainclothes men were officers or angry locals remains unclear, but the message sent by Egyptian authorities was unmistakable: "There will be no march to Rafah." The crackdown intensified near Cairo's main checkpoints, where riot police and armored vehicles reportedly seized at least 40 passports. Dozens of others were interrogated upon arrival. Among those detained was Irish Member of Parliament Paul Murphy, also a Turkish MP and a former US diplomat, Halah Rarit.

who resigned from her post over a year ago in protest of the war in Gaza. That's a super brave move, right? Murphy posted on X, quote, We've had our passports confiscated and are being detained. It seems Egyptian authorities have decided to crack down on the Great March to Gaza. We are refusing to board the deportation bus, end quote. Okay, Paul, good luck with that.

Turkish officials later confirmed that their MP had been injured during the confrontation. Meanwhile, the grandson of Nelson Mandela said on social media that he too was briefly detained near Cairo and had his passport taken. Some activists, catching wind of the intensifying dragnet, and apparently slightly smarter than the average activist, chose to remain in Cairo.

A separate convoy of roughly 2,000 activists attempting to cross from eastern Libya was stopped by security forces before ever reaching Egyptian soil. Another blow, of course, to organizers' hopes of a mass movement converging at the Gaza border.

Though Egyptian officials have called for a ceasefire in Gaza, analysts note that Cairo has long adopted a zero-tolerance policy toward unsanctioned demonstrations, particularly ones driven by foreign nationals that risk inflaming domestic sentiment or near-security flashpoints. That position drew praise from Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, saying he expected Cairo to prevent provocations near the border and

warning that the convoy's arrival could "endanger the security of IDF soldiers" Despite police and organizers urging foreign embassies to intervene on behalf of detained citizens including nationals from Canada, Turkey, and the UK Egypt has shown no signs of backing down making clear that its sovereignty and security take precedence over performative art and angst-ridden Westerners

Okay, coming up next in the back of the brief, a new report says Trump's travel ban could soon hit 36 more countries. We'll have those details next.

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In today's Back of the Brief, the Trump administration is eyeing an expansion of its travel ban policy, one that could more than double the number of countries already facing entry restrictions. According to a classified State Department cable obtained by The Washington Post, the new proposal targets citizens from 36 additional nations, building on President Trump's 4th of June proclamation that barred entry from 12 countries.

The administration argues that the expanded list is necessary to plug the long-standing loopholes exploited by foreign nationals and to reinforce what it sees as a keystone in the president's immigration and security framework

Africa dominates the list with 25 of the targeted nations including Nigeria, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo Several Caribbean nations also make the cut such as St. Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, and Antigua and Barbuda alongside four Asian countries: Bhutan, Cambodia, Kyrgyzstan, and Syria Three more come from Oceania

Among the more striking inclusions are Egypt and Djibouti, those are nations that maintain long-standing ties with the US But according to the memo, even these partners have come under scrutiny for failing to meet what officials call "essential standards" like issuing reliable identity documents, maintaining a functioning central government, or cooperating on deportations

Several countries, the cable notes, are plagued by what it describes as "widespread government fraud" or have allowed high rates of visa overstays Another area of concern is the proliferation of so-called "citizenship for investment" programs which offer foreign nationals second passports in exchange for capital Now, US officials warn that these schemes pose serious risks to the vetting process potentially allowing bad actors to enter the country under false pretenses

The memo goes further, suggesting that several of the countries are on the radar not just for administrative lapses but for their citizens' alleged involvement in anti-Semitic or anti-American activity on U.S. soil. Each of the targeted governments has until Wednesday morning to submit a preliminary plan for addressing the identified vulnerabilities. If they fail to demonstrate sufficient progress within 60 days, they risk being added to the list of countries subject to full or partial bans.

Now, no final decisions have been made, but the stakes are high If implemented, the policy could impact millions of travelers, students and workers

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 16th of June. If you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And of course, to listen to the show ad-free, well, it's simple. Just become a premium member of the PDB by visiting pdbpremium.com. And by now, I hope that you've had a chance to check out and subscribe to our soon-to-be critically acclaimed YouTube channel. You can find that

at President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.