May 12th, 2025: The ‘Alarming Intel’ That Forced the India-Pakistan Ceasefire & A ‘Total Reset’ In China?
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It's Monday, the 12th of May. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right.

Let's get briefed. Well, it was a weekend marked by diplomacy and negotiations, which frankly is far better than a weekend marked by missiles and trade wars. Okay, well, starting in South Asia, where a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The truce came together after US officials received alarming intelligence, prompting a last-minute diplomatic scramble led by Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

We'll have those details Later in the show, President Trump says a "total reset" has been negotiated with China following high-level trade talks in Geneva But, you ask, what exactly does that mean? And is Beijing on the same page? Well, those are very good questions

Plus, Vladimir Putin is calling for direct peace talks with Ukraine after more than three years of war. That would be Putin's war. President Zelensky says he's willing to meet, but only if Russia agrees to a full ceasefire first. And in today's back of the brief, President Trump lands in Riyadh today, kicking off a week of high-stakes talks with key Gulf nations. We'll explain what's on the agenda. But first, today's PDB Spotlight.

After days of intense airstrikes, drone attacks, and cross-border shelling, a fragile ceasefire between India and Pakistan appears to be holding. The truce follows the worst bout of fighting in decades between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. And while the shooting is stopped, well, questions remain about what comes next and how the deal came together in the first place.

The ceasefire was publicly announced on Saturday morning by President Trump via Truth Social. The president wrote, quote, "...congratulations to both countries on using common sense and great intelligence."

But, according to top U.S. officials, the ceasefire agreement actually goes beyond just putting the guns down. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said shortly after Trump's post that both India and Pakistan had agreed to, quote, start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site, suggesting that the U.S. may have helped broker something more enduring. Rubio said the ceasefire followed two days of intense diplomatic efforts led by himself and Vice President J.D. Vance

who were reportedly on the phone non-stop with senior officials from both countries. Now, the diplomatic push by the U.S., well, it comes as something of a surprise, especially after Vance told Fox News just days earlier that the India-Pakistan conflict was, quote, "...fundamentally none of our business."

Well, um, except for the fact that they've both got nuclear weapons and it is in America's best interest to not have a nuclear war break out. That's bad for global business, of which the US plays a significant role. But at the same time, Vance signaled that the White House wasn't planning to get involved, aside from encouraging a general de-escalation. So, what changed?

According to CNN, the turning point came when Vance Rubio and White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles received what's being described as, quote, alarming intelligence about the conflict. We don't know what that intelligence entailed, but sources say it convinced the Trump administration that a significant escalation, possibly even a broader war, was imminent if action wasn't taken quickly.

Vance reportedly briefed President Trump late Friday morning before placing a direct call to Indian Prime Minister Modi. During that call, the Vice President urged Modi to open lines of communication with Pakistan and to pursue avenues for de-escalation.

That call seems to have kick-started a fast-moving series of behind-the-scenes negotiations. Through Friday night, Rubio and State Department officials were reportedly working the phones with both Indian and Pakistani counterparts. By Saturday morning, Trump announced what he called a "full and immediate ceasefire," followed minutes later by Rubio's confirmation of the agreement and the upcoming talks.

Now, despite the optimistic tone coming from Washington, the parties involved aren't necessarily telling the same story. India's Ministry of Information said the ceasefire was negotiated, quote, directly between the two countries, a statement that appeared to downplay U.S. involvement. On the other hand, Pakistani officials are crediting Washington heavily. The nation's prime minister publicly thanked President Trump for his, quote, leadership and proactive role for peace in the region. One Pakistani official told CNN that,

Secretary Rubio was particularly instrumental in sealing the deal, describing a last-minute push that brought both sides to the table. Still, this ceasefire is just the beginning. There are major unresolved issues between the two countries, including a key water-sharing treaty that India suspended in the wake of the terror attack that ignited this conflict in the first place. Now, whether that treaty is reinstated and whether these negotiations can deliver a lasting peace

That remains to be seen. All right, coming up after the break. President Trump claims a, quote, total reset with China after trade talks in Geneva. And Vladimir Putin proposes peace talks with Ukraine. But Zelensky says, not so fast, not without a ceasefire first. I'll be right back. Hey, Mike Baker here.

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Welcome back to the PDB. The United States and China may be inching toward a major breakthrough in the tariff war, marking what President Trump called a "total reset" in economic relations with the communist regime. Trump made the announcement Saturday night on Truth Social, hailing the weekend Geneva summit as a turning point after more than 10 hours of back-to-back negotiations.

The president did not provide many specifics of the trade talk summit. However, he described the marathon talks as, quote, friendly and constructive, saying the two sides discussed, quote, many things and that, quote, much was agreed to. Well, that's generally vague. Trump added, quote, we want to see for the good of both China and the U.S. an opening up of China to American business, end quote.

leading the American delegation with Treasury Secretary Scott Besant and Trade Representative Jameson Greer. And in a sign of how seriously Beijing is treating the negotiations, Chinese leader Xi Jinping dispatched his top economic czar alongside Beijing's public security minister. The heavyweight Beijing team signals that Xi is feeling the economic pressure and wants tariff relief now. While no formal deal has yet been announced, officials from both delegations said

said the conversations laid the groundwork for dialing down tensions between the world's two largest economies. The communist regime's state-run news agency called the summit, quote, an important step toward resolving the dispute.

As we've been tracking here extensively on the PDB, the Trump administration slapped a 145% tariff on Chinese imports earlier this year. Beijing fired back with a 125% tariff on American goods, but now there appears to be movement. Trump has floated an 80% tariff as a potential reset point, a figure intended to

at least kickstart a broader rollback while maintaining leverage against the Chinese Communist Party. Commerce Secretary Howard Letnick told Fox News on Friday that the administration may ultimately settle around a 34% baseline. That's a figure that Trump proposed back in April. Several White House insiders say the 80% figure was a strategic opening gambit designed to let Besson negotiate downward without ceding American leverage.

Trump underscored the significance of the moment with a Truth Social post, in all caps, which of course, as you know, signals importance.

reading, quote, great progress made and three exclamation marks. The weekend summit came against the backdrop of mounting economic distress inside the CCP. Treasury Secretary Besant has warned that the tariff war could cost China over 10 million jobs, while Goldman Sachs now estimates more than 16 million Chinese workers are at risk as export orders plummet to lows that have not been seen since the height of the COVID lockdowns.

Speaking from the White House before the talks, Besson emphasized the imbalance, stating, quote, They sell almost five times more goods to us than we sell to them, so the onus will be on them to take off these tariffs.

While Beijing continues to insist publicly that the U.S. must fully drop its unilateral duties, its tone, well, appears more measured than in past statements. For now, high tariffs remain locked in place. However, Washington and Beijing appear to be seeking an off-round, one that could reshape the future of trade relations. Okay.

In the first major diplomatic overture in months, Russian President Putin on Sunday proposed direct peace talks with Ukraine, even as his "military" continued hammering Ukrainian cities with drone strikes. Speaking at a televised address from the Kremlin, Putin invited Ukrainian officials to meet in Istanbul "without any preconditions," saying talks could begin as early as Thursday and would aim for a "durable peace."

But the proposal came absent any real concessions, and within hours, Russian forces launched another wave of drone attacks across Ukraine, injuring at least one civilian and damaging homes near Kyiv. Ukrainian President Zelensky responded with careful diplomacy, calling Putin's offer a "positive sign," but insisting Moscow must prove its sincerity by implementing a complete ceasefire.

In a post on X, Zelensky wrote, quote, the very first step in truly ending any war is ceasefire, adding that Ukraine expects Russia to enforce a, quote, full, lasting and reliable halt to hostilities starting on Monday. That condition remains unmet. The Kremlin has not agreed to pause hostilities, highlighting the wide gulf between rhetoric and reality.

The timing of Putin's proposal is no coincidence. His outreach came just hours after a delegation of European leaders visiting Kyiv on Saturday demanded an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or threatened "massive new sanctions." The Kremlin dismissed the appeal as merely a "ultimatum." Putin doubled down, saying any truce must follow negotiations, not precede them, and said he looks to further discuss the framework with Turkish President Erdogan.

French President Macron acknowledged the optics of Moscow's offer but warned that Putin was stalling. Macron said on his return from Kyiv, "It's a first step, but it's not enough," standing firm that an unconditional ceasefire is not preceded by negotiations. Still, the optics do matter. Neither Putin nor Zelensky wants to be seen by President Trump at this stage as the obstacle to peace.

Trump, who has repeatedly vowed to end the conflict and cast himself as a central figure between Moscow and Kyiv, posted on Truth Social Sunday night, quote, a potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine. The president added that a peace deal could save thousands of lives from the, quote, never-ending bloodbath. But behind the hopeful veneer, Putin has not budged from the hardline demands that he laid out in 2022.

He continues to demand that Ukraine abandon its NATO ambitions, recognize Russia's control over four eastern regions, and accept permanent neutrality. In his address on Sunday, Putin cited the 2022 draft agreement that would have barred Ukraine from entering military alliances in exchange for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. That agreement ultimately collapsed after Russia refused to halt its offensive.

He also repeated long-standing claims that Kyiv is being manipulated by Western governments. Putin stated, quote, the decision is now up to the Ukrainian authorities and their curators who are guided, it seems, by their personal political ambitions and not by the interests of their peoples, end quote. Now, with Russian troops occupying roughly one-fifth of Ukraine and continuing to take territory, albeit slowly, Putin is offering talks, but only on his terms.

All right, coming up next in the back of the brief, President Trump touches down in Riyadh to kick off a diplomatic push across the Gulf with plans to court major investments and strengthen ties with Arab partners. I'll have those details next.

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In today's Back of the Brief, President Trump touched down in Riyadh today, kicking off a three-nation tour through the Gulf aimed at securing hundreds of billions in investments and reaffirming America's role as a regional power broker. According to the White House, the visit represents a comprehensive vision to strengthen economic and diplomatic ties between the U.S. and the Gulf states, which are flush with sovereign wealth. Speaking ahead of the trip,

Press Secretary Caroline Leavitt described the tour as a pivotal moment in U.S.-Gulf relations, saying it reflected a shared vision of a, quote, golden age for both America and the Middle East, united by stability, opportunity, and mutual respect. Chief of Staff Susie Wilds told the New York Post the president's schedule was, quote, almost entirely about business deals and investment in the U.S.,

Among the proposals expected to headline the agenda, a pledge by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, to inject $600 billion, that's who it'll be, into American ventures. The three stops of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are key.

Together, those countries command some of the world's most powerful sovereign wealth funds, making them ideal launchpads for Trump's push to supercharge the U.S. economy through foreign capital. Wiles says oil production, sovereign fund activity, and tech ventures will dominate the agenda at each leg of the trip.

Tomorrow, that's on Tuesday, Trump will attend a Gulf Cooperation Council summit hosted by MBS, pitching expanded regional economic coordination to leaders from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, and the UAE. The Saudi crown prince remains a central figure in Trump's Middle East playbook. He was the first leader that Trump called after beginning his second term, and that conversation, according to aides, included a renewed commitment to funnel vast sums into U.S. projects.

Still, it's not just economics on the agenda. Aides say that Trump will also press for security cooperation on "shared visions for regional stability," including counterterrorism efforts and conflict resolution. Those specific talks will center on the Israel-Hamas war and the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The trip also carries historical resonance.

Trump's 2017 visit to Riyadh, his first foreign stop as president, led to a landmark $350 billion arms deal over 10 years, including $110 billion in contracts that went into immediate effect. Trump's itinerary continues Wednesday in Doha, where he'll meet the Qatari emir and tour a U.S. military base. On Thursday, the president travels to Abu Dhabi for bilateral talks with the UAE president.

White House officials say the trip is designed to project a shift away from endless regional conflict toward commerce-led diplomacy.

And that, my friends, is the President's Daily Brief for Monday, the 12th of May. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. Now, in case you haven't heard the news, if you'd like to have an ad-free experience with the PDB, well, you can do that. Simply become a Premium Member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com.

And as always, you can check out our YouTube channel where you can catch all things PDB, including episodes of our highly acclaimed weekend show, The PDB Situation Report. Go to YouTube and check out At President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back later today with the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.