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cover of episode PDB Afternoon Bulletin | April 8th, 2025: Ukrainian Troops Invade Russia Again & Trump Announces High-Stakes Nuclear Talks With Iran

PDB Afternoon Bulletin | April 8th, 2025: Ukrainian Troops Invade Russia Again & Trump Announces High-Stakes Nuclear Talks With Iran

2025/4/8
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Mike Baker: 我是迈克·贝克,今天是4月8日星期二,我们将讨论乌克兰军队再次入侵俄罗斯以及美国就伊朗核计划与伊朗进行的令人惊讶的直接会谈。乌克兰军队在俄罗斯别尔哥罗德地区发动新的入侵行动,目标是削弱莫斯科的攻击能力,而非夺取大片领土。泽连斯基总统强调,主要目标是保护苏梅和哈尔科夫地区的城镇和定居点。同时,俄罗斯正在顿巴斯集结约3万军队,准备在本月底对该地区发动进攻。美俄之间的外交谈判因俄罗斯副外长的反对而恶化,特朗普总统表示,如果俄罗斯继续拖延谈判,他将考虑对俄罗斯石油贸易实施新的制裁。尽管如此,美国仍在与俄罗斯进行新一轮会谈。关于伊朗,特朗普总统证实美国正在与伊朗进行直接会谈,一次大型会议将于周六在阿曼举行。美国代表团将由特朗普的中东特使史蒂夫·威特科夫领导,而伊朗方面则预计由外交部长阿巴萨拉奇领导。然而,伊朗方面坚持认为谈判将保持间接性,由阿曼官员调解。美国官员表示,华盛顿已准备好进行面对面接触,但美伊双方就谈判形式存在分歧。特朗普警告说,如果与伊朗的会谈不成功,伊朗将面临巨大危险,并重申德黑兰绝不允许获得核武器的底线。特朗普、威特科夫和副总统万斯对外交持乐观态度,而国家安全顾问沃尔兹和国务卿鲁比奥则持怀疑态度,倾向于采取更强硬的立场。在阿曼举行的会议可能标志着一个转折点,如果会谈取得突破,可能标志着华盛顿和德黑兰之间自2015年协议崩溃以来最严重的接触;如果会谈失败,美国和伊朗可能更接近军事冲突。 泽连斯基: 乌克兰在边境地区对敌方领土采取积极行动是正当的,战争应该回到它起源的地方。我们继续在边境地区对敌方领土进行积极行动,这是绝对公正的。战争必须回到它起源的地方。 普京: 乌克兰军队试图在美俄外交谈判期间制造负面背景,试图楔入别尔哥罗德地区西部。 特朗普: 如果与伊朗的会谈不成功,我认为伊朗将处于极大的危险之中。德黑兰绝不允许获得核武器。 威特科夫: 就伊朗问题与伊朗进行外交,存在实施核查计划的真正可能性,以确保伊朗停止任何核武器发展。 万斯: 对与伊朗进行外交持乐观态度,认为达成协议是有可能实现的。 沃尔兹: 对与伊朗进行外交持怀疑态度,倾向于采取更强硬的立场,并保留军事选择。 鲁比奥: 对与伊朗进行外交持怀疑态度,倾向于采取更强硬的立场,并保留军事选择。 阿巴萨拉奇: 伊朗坚持认为与美国的谈判将保持间接性,由阿曼官员调解。

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It's Tuesday, the 8th of April. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, as diplomatic talks over the war in Ukraine stall, Kyiv launches a fresh invasion into Russian territory, and Moscow, well, they're preparing for a new spring offensive.

Later in the show, a surprising update regarding Iran as President Trump says that the U.S. is now engaging in direct talks with the Islamic regime over their nuclear program, with a major meeting said to be taking place this Saturday in Oman. Or it might actually just be a meeting about perhaps having a meeting to maybe talk about the possibility of direct talks. We'll sort through all the various mixed messages.

But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We'll begin in Eastern Europe, where Ukrainian forces are back on the offensive, launching a fresh incursion into Russian territory. On Monday, President Zelensky publicly confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian troops are fighting in Russia's Belgorod region, which borders Ukraine, engaging in active operations aimed at stifling Moscow's attack capabilities.

Now, Zelensky emphasized that the primary goal is not to seize large swaths of Russian territory, like they did with their invasion of the Kursk region back in August of 2024, but to protect Ukrainian towns and settlements in the regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, which face regular aerial bombardments from Russian forces that are stationed near their border.

according to a report from Euronews. The latest incursion is also designed to split Russia's attention, easing pressure on other parts of the war's front lines, particularly in the Eastern Donetsk region. Zelensky said, quote, We continue to carry out active operations in the border areas on enemy territory, and that is absolutely just. War must return to where it came from, end quote.

While the activity is only just coming to light, an assessment from the Institute for the Study of War suggests Ukrainian forces first crossed the border into Belgorod in mid to late March after being all but completely dislodged from the Kursk region following a Russian counteroffensive earlier that month.

But details of the operation remain scarce It's not clear how many Ukrainian troops are taking part in the Belgorod incursion or how long Kiev plans to maintain a presence there

Kremlin officials have also confirmed the limited invasion, saying that Ukrainian forces are attempting to "wedge themselves into the western part of the Belgorod region." They accused Kyiv of attempting to "create a negative background amid the ongoing diplomatic talks between the US and Russia." That, of course, implies that Putin is actually interested in ending his military adventurism, which doesn't frankly appear to be the case.

Moscow, which has been stalling diplomatic talks with the US by continually upping their demands for concessions from Ukraine, appears to be preparing for a major military operation. According to a report from Euromaidan Press, Russia is massing some 30,000 troops in the Donbass in preparation for an offensive push in the region by the end of the month.

Now, if the estimates of Russian troops prove to be accurate, Moscow would have a 3-to-1 numerical advantage over Ukrainian forces currently defending that sector. Analysts speculate that Russia seeks to seize the entirety of the Donetsk region in an attempt to further strengthen their negotiating hand in the ongoing U.S.-brokered talks to end the war. I don't know about you, but I'm starting to think that Putin's not all that interested in ending the war.

As we've been tracking on the PDB, those talks began to deteriorate last week after Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister pushed back on President Trump's peace proposals, saying that Moscow cannot accept the current terms as they fail to address Russia's long-term strategic concerns and objectives, one of those objectives apparently being the complete ownership of Ukraine.

The comments came just two days after President Trump said he is getting increasingly "pissed off" by the Kremlin's attempts to stall negotiations and will consider imposing new sanctions on Russia's oil trade within the next month if he feels Moscow is actively seeking to undermine his efforts.

But for now, it appears the Trump administration still thinks diplomacy can win the day. Late last week, the U.S. hosted Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev, a top advisor to Putin, in hopes of getting negotiations back on track. On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that a new round of talks between the U.S. and Russia are slated to take place in Istanbul on the 10th of April. Oh, just in time for Putin's spring offensive.

Alright, coming up next, an update on Iran, as President Trump says the U.S. is now engaging in direct talks with the Islamic regime over their nuclear program. Or are they? I'll have those details when we come back.

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Welcome back to the Afternoon Bulletin. President Trump surprised the international community on Monday by confirming that the U.S. is engaged in direct talks with Iran, with what he described as a, quote, very big meeting set for Saturday in Oman. As we discussed on the PDB this morning, speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in the Oval Office, Trump announced that the talks will continue with high-level participation. The president told reporters, quote, we'll see what can happen, end quote.

Until now, details of the discussions remained opaque. Honestly, I just wanted to work the word opaque into this episode. But according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to Axios, we've now learned that the U.S. delegation will reportedly be led by Trump's Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Abbasarachi is expected to take the lead, though, interestingly, the Iranian regime insists that the negotiations will remain interminable

indirect and mediated by Omani officials. That version of events, of course, directly contradicts the White House's framing. An Iranian state-linked outlet reported Tuesday that Omani intermediaries will shuttle messages between the parties, an arrangement that Tehran appears to prefer to maintain a plausible distance from any overt diplomatic thaw. So,

The U.S. says there'll be direct talks, while Iran says that the talks will be indirect and conducted through Omani mediators. Looks like I get another chance to throw the word opaque into this episode.

American officials have confirmed to Axios that Washington is prepared for face-to-face engagement, which of course is not the same as saying that the two sides will engage in direct discussions on Saturday. So, let's have a show of hands over who's confused at this point. One senior American official described the current situation as little more than, quote, a negotiation about the format of the negotiations.

That, of course, underscores the depth of mistrust that persists between the two nations, mistrust that dates back to Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the Obama-era nuclear agreement back in 2018. Still, the stakes are enormous. Trump warned that, quote, "...if the talks aren't successful with Iran, I think Iran is going to be in great danger," hinting at military action and reaffirming his administration's hard-red line that "...Tehran will never be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon."

As we've tracked here on the PDB, this latest diplomatic push began last month when Trump dispatched a formal letter to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei proposing direct talks and offering Tehran a two-month window to come to the table. Khamenei, who had previously dismissed Trump's gestures as theatrics, responded in late March. Since then, Oman has reportedly acted as an intermediary, ferrying messages between the capitals.

Meanwhile, fault lines are beginning to emerge inside the US administration.

President Trump, Witkoff, and Vice President J.D. Vance reportedly view diplomacy as viable and are optimistic that a deal is within reach. In a March interview with Tucker Carlson, Witkoff said there was "a real possibility" of implementing a verification program to ensure that Iran halts any nuclear weapons development, but others remain unconvinced. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Mark Rubio, both long-standing Iran hawks, have

have signaled deep skepticism favoring a harder line that keeps the military option firmly on the table.

Saturday's meeting in Oman could mark a watershed. Well, depending on what the format, structure, or nature of the talks might be, direct, indirect, well, we don't know. A breakthrough could signal the most serious engagement between Washington and Tehran since the collapse of the 2015 deal. But if the talks in whatever format or structure they may occur collapse, well, the U.S. and Iran may well find themselves much closer to military conflict.

And that, my friends, is the PDB Afternoon Bulletin for Tuesday, the 8th of April. Now, if you have any questions or comments, please reach out to me at pdbatthefirsttv.com. And to listen to the show ad-free, well, it's simple. Become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief by visiting pdbpremium.com. See, it's that simple. I'm Mike Baker, and I'll be back tomorrow. Until then, stay informed, stay safe, stay cool.